The Most Overpriced Assets on the 2015-16 MLB Offseason Trade Market
Although the easiest way for teams to improve their rosters is through free agency, organizations are getting creative with trades to upgrade for 2016 this winter. By trading, teams are able to stay away from long-term deals that can cripple franchises.
But that doesn't mean that working with another team is always the best idea. Over the next few slides, we'll take a look at a handful of offseason trade targets that teams might want to steer clear of.
In most deals, teams are looking for young prospects in exchange for their established major leaguers. As we learned in 2015, young talent has become the most valuable currency in baseball. Teams must carefully evaluate the risk associated with parting with that young talent before pulling the trigger on a potential deal.
As talented as Aroldis Chapman, Elvis Andrus, Jonathan Papelbon and other trade targets have proven to be during their careers, teams must be wary of surrendering attractive young players to acquire their services.
In Chapman's case, is giving up a treasure trove of prospects worth one year of a one-inning pitcher? Papelbon has proven to be a nuisance in the clubhouse, while Andrus' outlandish contract and lack of production give him virtually no value.
Would you want your team to trade for any of these players? Will the short-term improvements your team sees validate the long-term risk? Let us know in the comment section below.
What always glitters isn't always gold. Here are a few short-term fixes that aren't worth the price they'll command on the market.
Elvis Andrus
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Due to a lack of middle infielders on the free-agent market, Elvis Andrus has become a secondary option for teams with needs up the middle, according to Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish.
If the Texas Rangers are confident that Jurickson Profar and Rougned Odor can handle the club's double play duties in 2016, Andrus could become expendable. But just because he's an established player doesn't make him a wise trade target.
Andrus is currently under contract through 2022. He's owed a whopping $103 million dollars over that time period. Andrus' monster deal is one of the 50 most expensive contracts in the history of MLB. Andrus contributed to Texas' AL dominance in the early stages of his career, but it's mind-boggling that he earned a contract of that magnitude.
The 27-year-old has a career on-base percentage of .331 and he's never exceeded the .350 mark. He's also never posted a wRC+, a statistic designed to compare players to the league average, above the replacement line.
Think about this: the Rangers paid a player that ranks 25th among shortstops in wRC+ since 2012 a $120 million contract. Names ahead of Andrus on that list: Everth Cabrera, Didi Gregorius, Ruben Tejada and Jordy Mercer.
Andrus is a threat on the bases and an above-average defender, but don't be fooled by his stolen base totals and batting average. He's a light-hitting middle infielder that doesn't get on base, and whose defensive skills aren't good enough to mask his offensive flaws.
Even the most desperate teams shouldn't trade for Andrus. Take on that salary and lose prospects? No thanks.
Jay Bruce
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The Cincinnati Reds flirted with trading outfielder Jay Bruce this past summer, but ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported that a deal with the New York Mets fell through after the club had "second thoughts" on New York's package.
Fast-forward to November and the Reds seem much more likely to part ways with the 28-year-old outfielder. According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, Bruce could be an alternative option for teams in need of some pop in the outfield.
"On one hand, Bruce represents a more affordable alternative to the major free-agent outfielders—Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward and Justin Upton," Rosenthal said. "On the other hand, he batted .226 with 26 homers and a .729 OPS last season at age 28, when he figured to be peaking."
Rosenthal's words sum up the conundrum teams will face when contemplating a trade involving Bruce. He may be affordable in 2016 and have a team option for 2017, but his game has seen a significant decline in the last two seasons.
The power is still there, mind you. Bruce hit 26 homers and drove in 87 runs in 2015. He's hit 20 or more homers in seven of eight big league seasons. Bruce has left-handed pop, and there are several teams that could use that service.
But Bruce's lack of plate discipline is becoming more and more worrisome. He fanned over 20 percent of the time for the eighth straight season, posting a sub-.300 OBP for the second straight campaign. He's also become extremely pull-happy over the last two seasons, which has given him no chance against lefties.
The Reds will try to sell teams on Bruce's home run totals, which are among the most consistent in MLB. But there's more to the game than occasionally squaring up a pitch, and Bruce lacks the complete offensive game that usually nets multiple prospects.
Jonathan Papelbon
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There's no way the Washington Nationals can bring Jonathan Papelbon back next season, right?
Based on the rumors that have been floating around this winter, Papelbon's future with the club is up in the air. MLB.com's Bill Ladson included Papelbon in his "all but gone" section of a Nationals offseason primer, but general manager Mike Rizzo slowed that roll with his comments earlier this month.
“As of today, they’re both in the bullpen [in 2016],” Rizzo said of Papelbon and fellow reliever Drew Storen, per the Washington Post's James Wagner. “They’re both good relief pitchers. Unless someone makes us a real baseball offer, they will be.”
This week, Rizzo told Jon Morosi of Fox Sports that teams have reached out to him regarding the availability of Papelbon and Storen. All of those reports indicate that the Nats will part ways with one of their late-inning options, which bodes the question: Why would any team want Papelbon?
Sure, he's still effective. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 63.1 innings in 2015. Yet, the 34-year-old recorded the lowest strikeout percentage of his career, allowed more hard contact than he had since 2007 and sported a 3.70 FIP this past season.
More importantly, Papelbon has enough baggage to fill his own private plane. He's been in the headlines for the wrong reasons at every stop of his career, choking out unanimous MVP Bryce Harper and shattering Storen's confidence (although that blame falls at Storen's and Rizzo's feet, too) in just half a year in Washington.
Papelbon is set to make $11 million in 2016 before he hits free agency the following winter. His skills are declining, and he's not the kind of personality teams want in their clubhouses.
Yeah, it's just one year and yes, Papelbon still has something left in the tank. But don't underestimate the damage he can do in a short amount of time.
Just ask the Nats.
Aroldis Chapman
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The Cincinnati Reds should send a thank you card to the Boston Red Sox for enhancing the trade value of closer Aroldis Chapman.
Boston recently acquired Craig Kimbrel in a blockbuster deal involving the San Diego Padres. In the trade, the Red Sox sent a package including prospects Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra to San Diego for the rights to the All-Star closer.
The Red Sox paid a pretty penny for Kimbrel, which begs the question: What will Cincinnati get for Chapman?
"The Reds can now point to the four-player haul the Padres landed for Kimbrel and use that as a reference point in Chapman trade talks," said Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. "They can say they want two top 100 caliber prospects plus a third prospect plus another guy they can plug into their MLB roster next year. Why wouldn't they ask for that initially?"
Kimbrel has multiple years left on his contract which makes it hard to compare his trade value to Chapman's. But for one year, it's hard to pick against the Cuban fireballer. Chapman has a 2.17 ERA and has struck out nearly 43 percent of the batters he's faced in his career.
There's no doubt that Chapman could help a contender get over the hump next season, but it's hard to justify giving up an elite prospect package for one year of a one-inning pitcher. Chapman is likely to test the free-agent waters in pursuit of the biggest contract ever given to a reliever next winter, which only raises the risk of trading for him.
The Reds will be aiming for a Kimbrel-like package, and should considering the type of talent Chapman is.
No matter how much the Red Sox gave up, the backend of their bullpen is set for the next three seasons. Margot and Guerra could become All-Stars, but Boston's focused on winning now and Kimbrel gives them the best chance to do that.
Chapman can provide a team with that same lift, but one year of his services isn't worth the franchise-crippling trade involving multiple key prospects it will take to get him.
Stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of Nov. 21.
