St. Louis Rams vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Baltimore Ravens (2-7) will go for their first win against an NFC team this season when they host the St. Louis Rams (4-5) on Sunday. The Ravens have already lost to the NFC West’s San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals, and they are coming off a tough 22-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars last week as five-point home favorites.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.0-20.3 Ravens

Why the Rams can cover the spread

St. Louis head coach Jeff Fisher is hoping a switch at quarterback will help jump-start his team’s offense with Case Keenum replacing the ineffective Nick Foles. Keenum had a few good games with the Houston Texans over the previous two seasons, and he cannot be much worse than Foles has played in his first year with the Rams.

Foles threw for 200 yards or fewer in eight straight games since leading them to a season-opening win over the Seattle Seahawks, totaling six touchdowns and six interceptions. Keenum may be able to give them the spark they need to get back on track and make a run at a playoff spot with some big plays in the passing game while allowing rookie running back Todd Gurley to shine and carry the offense.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore would have earned a victory last week against the Jaguars if the referees did not call a bad penalty that allowed Jacksonville to kick the game-winning field goal. Instead, the Ravens find themselves losers of four of their last five. While they have covered the spread only once this season in a 26-18 road loss to the Arizona Cardinals, they have been involved in a lot of close games that simply have not gone their way.

That loss to the Cardinals was Baltimore’s lone setback by more than a touchdown this season, with seven of the team’s past eight decided by four points or fewer. The two wins the Ravens earned this season were also both decided by a field goal, with kicker Justin Tucker coming through on the game’s final play both times. Tucker is arguably the best kicker in the NFL and could very well be the difference-maker against the Rams as well.

Smart pick

Baltimore is 13-5 straight-up in its last 18 games after losing as a favorite, and the team has also gone 16-1 SU in its past 17 home games versus NFC opponents with an 11-6 mark against the spread. Keenum won only twice in 10 games with the Texans despite playing well at times, and he will be over his head playing on the road against an angry Ravens defense. Back Baltimore to get its third victory by a field goal or more to cover.

Betting trends

The Ravens are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games after losing as favorite.

The Ravens are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games after a loss.

The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 11.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.