Week 11 NFL Picks: Vegas Betting Odds, Over-Under Spreads and Line Projections

Yet again, the NFL provided the perfect example of why bettors on Las Vegas betting odds have to do thorough research or lose money in a hurry.

Monday Night Football to finish off Week 10 featured perhaps the biggest upset of the week, as the Cincinnati Bengals—sometimes listed as 13-point favorites—took a dive at home to the Houston Texans.

Maybe the outright result wasn't so easy to see coming, but a 13-point win by a team that traditionally struggles on prime time against a J.J. Watt defense didn't make loads of sense.

It's another lesson for bettors in the hard-work-pays-off category ahead of Week 11, where tough divisional battles and more line the slate. Here's a look at the odds breakdown for each with predictions.

NFL Week 11 Odds

Game	Spread	O/U	Predicted Winner
Tennessee at Jacksonville	JAC -2.5	43	JAC 27-14
Indianapolis at Atlanta	ATL -7	47.5	IND 23-20
St. Louis at Baltimore	BAL -1	41.5	STL 17-10
Washington at Carolina	CAR -8.5	45	CAR 24-14
Denver at Chicago	E	43	DEN 28-20
Oakland at Detroit	E	48	OAK 30-24
N.Y. Jets at Houston	NL	--	NYG 26-23
Dallas at Miami	E	47.5	DAL 20-16
Tampa Bay at Philadelphia	NL	--	PHIL 28-23
Kansas City at San Diego	KC -3	44	KC 23-17
Green Bay at Minnesota	E	44.5	MIN 24-23
San Francisco at Seattle	SEA -13.5	40	SEA 27-20
Cincinnati at Arizona	NL	--	CIN 20-17
Buffalo at New England	NE -7.5	48	NE 33-24

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark.  

Early Odds to Bet

Washington at Carolina (-8.5)

Here's a line to jump all over before it moves too much. 

The world seems gassed up over Washington after the team's Week 10 thumping of the New Orleans Saints in 47-14 fashion. There, quarterback Kirk Cousins exploded with four touchdowns on 20 completions.

The thing is, it would have been more strange if Cousins hadn't posted such a major line. New Orleans is the worst defense against quarterbacks by a mile, and in the weeks before, it had allowed four and six touchdowns in its last two games.

The Carolina Panthers have allowed two or more touchdowns in a game by a quarterback just three times. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to throw for more than two scores against the unit.

So no, betting the under here doesn't make much sense. Washington has three major blowouts on record this year, while Cam Newton and the Panthers remain undefeated. Newton looks like an MVP candidate with 21 total touchdowns, and last week was an anomaly for the Washington defense, not the norm. Look for the home team, the more complete team, to win big.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Washington 14

Denver (-1.5) at Chicago

This line might be even now, but it's not hard to see which way it's trending after opening at having the Denver Broncos favored by 1.5 points. 

The reason the 4-5 Chicago Bears might be the favorite here against the 7-2 Broncos? Denver coach Gary Kubiak made the decision to sit Peyton Manning for this one.

"[I] told the team this week that Peyton is not going to play," Kubiak said, according to ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold. "That Brock is going to play this week and that all of our full attention is going to be to getting Peyton back and healthy. That decision has been made."

This sounds terrible for the Broncos, right? 

Maybe not. Manning has been miserable all season, completing less than 60 percent of his passes with nine touchdowns to 17 interceptions. He tossed four interceptions before getting benched last weekend.

At the least, Brock Osweiler came in last week and threw for 146 yards with a score and a pick. The Chicago defense has already let up 23 or more points five times this year, so the backup can do some damage against the unit.

Try not to forget, either, that it's an elite defense that has propped Manning up this season. The injured unit struggled last weekend in a loss, but prior to that defeat, it was ranked No. 1 against the pass, allowing just 277.3 yards per game, and also ranked among the top 10 teams against the rush.

Said defense won't have problems containing an up-and-down Chicago offense and pulling off what some might consider an upset.

Prediction: Broncos 28, Bears 20

Buffalo at New England (-7.5)

Bettors have been down this road before. 

In Week 2, the New England Patriots mopped up the Buffalo Bills despite playing on the road, 40-32.

The storyline going into this one is simple: In that contest, Patriots running back Dion Lewis rushed for 40 yards and a score with another 98 yards through the air and Julian Edelman caught 11 passes for 97 yards and two touchdowns.

Both are gone, with Lewis out for the year and Edelman needing surgery on his foot, per ESPN.com's Adam Schefter.

The question is, does it really matter? The Patriots have LeGarrette Blount to handle the backfield work, as he did last week with 66 yards and a touchdown and the week before that with 129 yards and a score. Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola haven't made a big impact yet but only because Edelman was in their way on the depth chart.

These Bills have been all over the place since the Week 2 loss, winning two in a row as of late (against teams with a combined record of 9-9) but dropping games to a team such as the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The fact is, the New England offense hasn't changed much. A deep team is one of the league's few that are still undefeated for good reason. Tom Brady won't have problems spreading it out against a defense he torched for 466 yards and three scores last time out, especially not at home.

Prediction: Patriots 33, Bills 24

Stats courtesy of NFL.com and accurate as of Nov. 16. All advanced metrics courtesy of Pro Football Focus.