How Each Top 15 MLB Free Agent Will Be Replaced by Former Team
Attempting to replace top MLB free agents like Zack Greinke and David Price is not an enviable task. For teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays, doing just that is on the docket this winter.
What follows are predictions for how the Dodgers, Blue Jays and others will account for the potential loss of impact free agents like Greinke and Price. The list includes the top 15 free agents on this offseason's market, as ranked on the Bleacher Report big board.
Some teams will use the departure of a star free agent as a chance to promote from within. Others squads will be forced to dip into the trade and free-agent fronts to make up for those losses. And some teams, like the Dodgers, might not have any choice but to take out their checkbooks and spend.
15. Yovani Gallardo, SP
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The Replacement: John Lackey
According to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, it doesn't look like Yovani Gallardo will be back with the Texas Rangers in 2016 after the right-hander rejected the team's qualifying offer. As Grant noted, the Rangers never discussed a multiyear deal with the starter during his stint with the American League West club.
If the Rangers are looking for a veteran arm to step in for Gallardo, John Lackey is a name to consider. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs predicted that Lackey will rake in a two-year, $26 million deal. That's a more than reasonable price tag for a starter who sported a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings of work in 2015.
14. Dexter Fowler, CF
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The Replacement: Austin Jackson
Dexter Fowler looks like he wants to cash in on his impressive 2015 season after the vet rejected his one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Chicago Cubs.
A one-year contract for Fowler would have been ideal for the Cubs, as Albert Almora is rising through the farm system. According to MLB.com, the 21-year-old center fielder checks in as the fifth-best prospect in Chicago's stacked minor league setup.
To bridge the gap to Almora, who spent 2015 in Double-A, the Cubs should aim to bring back veteran outfielder Austin Jackson on a one-year deal. For Jackson, who will be 29 by the start of the 2016 season, a one-year contract would provide him with the opportunity to rebuild his value before re-entering the market next winter.
13. John Lackey, SP
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The Replacement: Jordan Zimmermann
With John Lackey hitting the free-agent market and Lance Lynn out for 2016 following elbow surgery, the usually-loaded St. Louis Cardinals rotation could use some help.
One starter who would immediately improve the Cards in that department is Jordan Zimmermann. The 29-year-old is one of the lower-profile aces in a market awash with front-line starters. With such an array of starters up for grabs, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports predicted that Zimmermann will land a five-year deal worth $115 million.
Inking the right-hander to a contract in that neighborhood could prove to be an excellent value based on Zimmermann's career numbers. The starter has pitched at least 195.2 frames in each of the past five campaigns and owns a 3.32 ERA in his seven seasons in the bigs.
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12. Mike Leake, SP
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The Replacement: Mike Leake Comes Back
With a rotation that was riddled with question marks in 2015 aside from the brilliant Madison Bumgarner, the San Francisco Giants are lacking consistent arms. Mike Leake has the track record that suggests he can provide that kind of consistency.
Over the past three seasons, Leake has posted an ERA of 3.70 or lower while always making at least 30 starts. The reliable righty would be a solid No. 3 starter for the Giants, but the National League West squad will also have to import a front-line arm to pair atop the rotation with MadBum.
11. Scott Kazmir, SP
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The Replacement: Scott Kazmir Comes Back
Quietly, Scott Kazmir was one of the most-effective starters in the AL in 2015. While splitting the season with the Oakland Athletics and the Houston Astros, the left-hander reeled off a 3.10 ERA, which was the fourth-lowest mark in the circuit.
Bringing back Kazmir would provide the Astros with a solid No. 2 starter in the rotation after staff ace and AL Cy Young Award finalist Dallas Keuchel. With the Houston native set to turn 32 before the start of the 2016 season, the best-case scenario would be for the AL West team to ink him to a two- or three-year deal.
10. Ian Desmond, SS
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The Replacement(s): Yunel Escobar and Trea Turner
The Washington Nationals have options when it comes to replacing free agent Ian Desmond.
The first option would be to shift Yunel Escobar back to shortstop after he spent 2015 at third base. The Cuban, who has always been known as a bat-first player, posted a .314 average in his first season in the nation's capital.
The second option would be for top prospect Trea Turner to take over the job. According to James Wagner of the Washington Post, the 22-year-old will have the chance to win the gig next spring. However, as Wagner pointed out, the "Nationals have privately indicated he may need more time in the minors, particularly defensively."
His glove remains a work in progress, but Turner's bat looks just about good to go. While spending the 2015 season in Double-A and Triple-A, the right-handed hitter logged a .322 average and connected on 24 doubles, earning a trip to the prestigious All-Star Futures Game.
9. Chris Davis, 1B
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The Replacement: Chris Davis Comes Back
The Baltimore Orioles "have the resources" to keep Chris Davis in town, according to Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio. Executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette told Bowden that the O's not only have the cash to re-sign Crush Davis but also to bring in a front-line starter.
While the market is flush in starting pitchers, there aren't a lot of replacement options for a guy like Davis. After the reigning home run champ, the next-best first baseman is Mike Napoli. As a result, the 29-year-old is in an excellent negotiating position as he waits for the free-agent offers to start rolling in.
8. Alex Gordon, LF
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The Replacement: Ben Zobrist and Gerardo Parra
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, Kansas City Royals GM Dayton Moore is much more optimistic about keeping Ben Zobrist than Alex Gordon: "The feeling is that Zobrist could re-sign, but Gordon is likely gone," Cafardo wrote.
If Gordon departs from the World Series winners, the Royals should aim to replace him by signing two players.
As Cafardo noted, Gerardo Parra is one potential option, as the standout defender could occupy left field. Meanwhile, if the Royals also re-upped Zobrist, the club could use him primarily at second base and as an insurance plan for the outfield corners.
7. Johnny Cueto, SP
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The Replacement: Hisashi Iwakuma
With Johnny Cueto expected to land a major payday this offseason, GM Dayton Moore is going to need to make an addition to bolster the Kansas City Royals rotation.
Lindsey Foltin of Fox Sports expects the Royals to follow a similar game plan as last offseason when the club signed a lower-tier starter in Edinson Volquez. In his first season at Kauffman Stadium, Volquez was a hit, turning in a 3.55 ERA in 34 outings.
One lower-profile starter who could fit a similar mold this winter is Hisashi Iwakuma. The 34-year-old has a 3.54 ERA for the Seattle Mariners in 20 outings in 2015 and was really cruising at the end of the season. In his final six starts, Iwakuma posted a 2.03 ERA.
6. Jordan Zimmermann, SP
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The Replacement(s): Tanner Roark and A.J. Cole
The Washington Nationals won't need to go outside the organization if Jordan Zimmermann's seven-year run with the team comes to an end.
Right at the top of the list of potential replacements are Tanner Roark and A.J. Cole. Roark, who was banished to the bullpen following the addition of Max Scherzer, has already proven what he can do on the big league stage. Back in 2014, the righty ripped off a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts.
Cole didn't shine in his brief 2015 cameo with the Nats (5.79 ERA in three outings), but he has the minor league numbers that suggest he's ready to compete for a major league job. Last season, the 23-year-old produced a 3.15 ERA in 21 Triple-A outings (including 19 starts).
5. Justin Upton, LF
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The Replacement: Jorge Soler
In the words of Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Justin Upton is "all but guaranteed to go elsewhere." That means the San Diego Padres are going to need to find a corner outfielder.
One way to check that bullet point off the organizational to-do list would be to explore the trade market. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted, the Chicago Cubs are willing to shop right fielder Jorge Soler in exchange for an arm. The Pads might just be a match.
"Major league sources" told Rosenthal that San Diego is open to moving starter Tyson Ross. This wouldn't be a one-for-one swap, but with a little creativity the Cubs and Pads could work out a deal with Soler and Ross as the centerpieces.
4. Jason Heyward, RF
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The Replacement: Jason Heyward Comes Back
There are two primary reasons why bringing back Jason Heyward would be the smart play for the St. Louis Cardinals.
The first is that he's a crazy-good defender. Heyward recently won his third Gold Glove and is second in baseball in defensive runs saved over the past four seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
The second reason is is age. Just 26 years old, Heyward is extremely young to be hitting the free-agent market. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argued that the Cards should dish out a nine-year, $195 million deal to Heyward, with the ability to opt out after four seasons. In such a scenario, Heyward would have the chance to cash in yet again at the age of 29.
3. Yoenis Cespedes, CF
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The Replacement: Denard Span
As Marc Carig of Newsday explained, one of the primary objectives for GM Sandy Alderson is to find another outfielder to replace Yoenis Cespedes who "almost certainly will find greater riches elsewhere via free agency."
According to Carig, that replacement could come in the form of Denard Span, who spent much of 2015 on the disabled list.
Span is obviously a much different kind of player than the powerful Cespedes, but he is a proven table-setter when he's healthy. Last year, the Washington Nationals were 36-25 when Span started and 47-54 when he didn't, per James Wagner of the Washington Post.
With Span in center, Michael Conforto could hold down left, Curtis Granderson could patrol right and Juan Lagares could be used as the top option off the bench.
2. David Price, SP
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The Replacement: Aaron Sanchez
When the season ended, the Toronto Blue Jays had two starters on the free-agent block.
Marco Estrada has already been brought back on a two-year, $26 million deal, while David Price patiently awaits his chance to cash in.
If the Blue Jays decide to not pay a mint for the Cy Young finalist, the shrewd move would be to rely on an internal candidate in Aaron Sanchez to slide into the rotation.
The 23-year-old was lights-out in a relief role, posting a 2.39 ERA and limiting the opposition to a .178 batting average in 30 outings. With that showing, Sanchez has earned the right to get a crack at a starting job after rising through the minors in the rotation.
1. Zack Greinke, SP
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The Replacement: Zack Greinke Comes Back
It's no lock that Zack Greinke will be back at Chavez Ravine in 2016. Los Angeles Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman foreshadowed that possibility at the general managers meeting.
"You look back over time and so many long-term free-agent contracts have worked out really poorly," Friedman said, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. "More than anything else, you get to a point where you're significantly hindering your ability to win in the future."
Friedman is right. There is plenty of risk in dishing out a megadeal to a guy like Greinke, who is already 32 years old. But there's also plenty of risk in breaking up the combination of Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the nastiest one-two punch in recent memory.
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote that the righty is the club's "top starting pitching target." Now, bringing him back needs to be the club's top priority.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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