Predicting Impact MLB Free Agents Who'll Sign Quickly This Offseason
It's awfully difficult to predict what will happen on the MLB free-agent market, but guys like Darren O'Day and Scott Kazmir should be some of the first impact players off the shelf.
The big leaguers who populate the list that follows fall into two general groups. The first are players like O'Day who are clearly at the top of the class at a given position (the relief market) that is looking especially weak. With a lack of quality free-agent relievers up for grabs, the clubs in need of bullpen help simply can't afford to wait around.
The second group consists of players like Kazmir who were traded before the deadline and who were not eligible to receive a qualifying offer. With no draft-pick compensation attached, Kazmir should draw far more interest than some of the other comparable lower-tier starters who are stuck with qualifying offers.
One of Kazmir's former teammates, who is also free from the qualifying-offer burden, also cracked this list.
Darren O'Day, RP
1 of 5
2016 Opening Day Age: 33
The Free-Agent Target
Suffice it to say that the free-agent class for relievers is thin. Just take one look at the group via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Darren O'Day is unquestionably the premier arm of the bunch. In 2015, the righty earned his first trip to the Midsummer Classic by reeling off a 1.53 ERA and running up an 11.3 strikeout-per-nine ratio.
According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the New York Mets, whose bullpen proved to be a dud in October, have an "interest" in snapping up the 33-year-old.
However, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports pointed out, the Mets will be far from the only team in pursuit of the reliever. Heyman dubbed O'Day an "extremely popular" free agent, predicting that he'll rake in $25 million across three seasons.
That's some major coin to hand to a setup man. Then again, as the reigning champs the Kansas City Royals have made abundantly apparent, late-inning aces are highly valuable weapons.
Logical Landing Spots: Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets and Washington Nationals
Ben Zobrist, UTL
2 of 5
2016 Opening Day Age: 34
The Free-Agent Target
Ben Zobrist owes Billy Beane a thank you, and not just because the Oakland Athletics' executive vice president of baseball operations traded the super-utility man to the eventual World Series champs.
By sending Zobrist to the Kansas City Royals in July, Beane ensured that Zobrist would be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason.
Upon landing at Kauffman Stadium, Zobrist was a star for the Royals, posting an .816 OPS during the regular season and then going on to record an .880 OPS during the playoffs. But even with those impressive numbers, Zobrist knows his name isn't first on the organization's offseason to-do list.
“[Alex] Gordo[n] is their top priority and he should be. He is the face of the franchise. But we would love to come back, too," Zobrist said, per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com.
There will be no shortage of teams who will love to have Zobrist this winter.
As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs argued, a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers would make a lot of sense both for the club and the player. At Chavez Ravine, Zobrist would be reunited with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, who was his boss with the Tampa Bay Rays.
On the diamond, the 34-year-old could spend the majority of his time at second base, but could also provide cover at third base and left field, two problem spots for the Dodgers in 2015.
Logical Landing Spots: Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees and Washington Nationals
Scott Kazmir, SP
3 of 5
2016 Opening Day Age: 32
The Free-Agent Target
Scott Kazmir is yet another impact free agent who stands to be a beneficiary of Billy Beane's summer fire sale.
Like Ben Zobrist, the veteran lefty was ineligible for a qualifying offer and subsequently stands out in a market stocked with established starting pitchers.
Kazmir slumped down the stretch (6.52 ERA in six September starts) but still managed to end the campaign with the fourth-lowest mark in the circuit (3.10 ERA).
The Baltimore Orioles, whose starters clocked in with the second-worst ERA in the American League in 2015, are just one of the clubs who should be checking in on Kazmir. With Wei-Yin Chen also on the free-agent block, the O's could end up in the market for a quality southpaw.
The Detroit Tigers, whose starters were last in the AL in ERA a season ago, should also be giving Kazmir's agent a call. According to Chris Iott of MLive.com, Kazmir is just the kind of lower-profile arm who could end up in Motown in 2016.
Logical Landing Spots: Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals
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Ryan Madson, RP
4 of 5
2016 Opening Day Age: 35
The Free-Agent Target
Along with Darren O'Day, Ryan Madson is one of the rare lockdown relievers available in free agency this winter.
Out of baseball since 2011, Madson was an absolute bargain while pitching on a one-year, $850,000 deal for the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander ripped off a 2.13 ERA in 68 outings for the champs. He also pumped up big strikeout numbers (58 Ks in 63.1 frames) while exhibiting excellent command (14 walks).
Madson's knack for generating swings-and-misses while keeping the ball in the zone makes him an ideal target for any number of clubs shopping for bullpen help.
Based on the way that the 2015 season played out, one team that would make sense as a potential landing spot for the reliever is the Oakland Athletics. Oakland's pen was a disaster in 2015, lugging around the worst ERA (4.63) in the AL.
Logical Landing Spots: Houston Astros, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals
Denard Span, CF
5 of 5
2016 Opening Day Age: 32
The Free-Agent Target
From Jayson Heyward to Colby Rasmus to Dexter Fowler and Denard Span, the free-agent marketplace is flooded with players who can line up in center field.
What separates Span from the rest of that group is that the veteran table-setter is the only one who wasn't extended a qualifying offer and subsequently isn't attached to draft-pick compensation.
Span endured an injury-riddled campaign in 2015 with the Washington Nationals, but the lefty hitter is a proven game-changer. Last year, the Nats were 36-25 when Span started and 47-54 when he didn't, as James Wagner of the Washington Post noted.
According to Will Ladson of MLB.com, Span is still interested in returning to the NL East squad even though the Nats didn't give him a qualifying offer. With last year's win-loss record in mind, Washington's brain trust would be wise to find a way to bring back the tone-setter for 2016.
Logical Landing Spots: Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets and Washington Nationals
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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