Rams vs. Vikings: What's the Game Plan for Minnesota?
The Minnesota Vikings (5-2) are set to host the St. Louis Rams (4-3) and their aggressive defense at TCF Bank Stadium, making a good week of preparation vital to team success on Sunday.
Jeff Fisher's Rams have gone through dramatic changes since Mike Zimmer earned his first career victory as a head coach at the Edward Jones Dome last season. Not only has St. Louis' defense taken another step forward, but the infusion of new offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and rookie standout Todd Gurley has given this offense life once again.
Instead of game-planning to stop Shaun Hill and Zac Stacy, Zimmer will have the former Rams quarterback holding a clipboard on his sideline while he attempts to slow down a rushing attack that has looked more imposing with each passing week.
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Facing arguably the most dangerous defensive front four in the NFL, Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner will need to come prepared with an offensive game plan that proves to be both consistent and creative. Rams defensive coordinator Gregg Williams won't shy away from attacking Minnesota's offense with every weapon in his arsenal.
The Vikings will face arguably their most well-rounded test in terms of overall difficulty this weekend, placing an even greater premium than usual on an efficient game plan players can execute efficiently and at high level on both sides of the football.
Offensive Game Plan
Vikings running back Adrian Peterson's on-field snaps have begun to decline, but the basic premise of the Vikings offense remains the same. The veteran running back participated in 38 of a possible 60 (63.3 percent) offensive plays against the Chicago Bears compared to 57 of a possible 75 (76 percent) against the Denver Broncos in Week 4, per Pro Football Focus.
Finding consistency will certainly pose a great challenge, but Minnesota will unsurprisingly place a major emphasis on establishing on the run against St. Louis' lethal defensive line. In doing so, the Vikings can combat multiple elements of what makes the Rams so difficult to score points against.
As noted previously, Williams tends to be one of the more aggressive defensive play-callers in the NFL. This is something Peterson himself vocalized during a midweek group interview with the local media.
"Out of the defenses we have faced thus far, I would definitely say he's the most aggressive guy we've seen this year," Minnesota's running back said of Williams. A big smile began to emerge on Peterson's face as he prepared to say his closing thought on the Rams' defensive coordinator.
"Hopefully it don't come back to bite him."
As Rams quarterback Nick Foles noted himself, players place an emphasis on avoiding statements that could result in giving the opposition some degree of an edge.
"I know they have people watching these interviews to see if I say anything," he said.
But, Peterson's candid note about Williams does provide some information, namely that the Vikings have a clear understanding of his play-calling style and potentially have a plan to take advantage of his aggressiveness in the works.
St. Louis frequently elects to send just four pass-rushers, which makes sense given the immense talent along its defensive line. But, Williams does use a variety of different blitz patterns with almost every member of his defense being involved to some extent.
Aside from St. Louis' five core defensive linemen, the most frequent pass-rusher for the Rams may come as a bit of a surprise. Veteran linebacker James Laurinaitis, a native of Wayzata, Minn., has recorded the most snaps in Williams' blitzes this season. According to Pro Football Focus, his 65 pass-rushing attempts noticeably exceed the second-highest total (Mark Barron, 43) among non-defensive linemen.
The Rams' defensive captain has had mild success in these situations, totaling 10 combined pressures, which includes a pair of quarterback sacks. Barron, who was recently converted to linebacker following a season-ending ankle injury to starter Alec Ogletree—even if he won't admit it. He has recorded 19 pass-rushing snaps in this role with only two resulting in quarterback hurries.
"I'm both," Barron said when a member of the St. Louis media asked if he is a linebacker or a safety. "I'm everything behind a D-line."
Upon recognition of an extra rusher, the general rule of thumb for creating a quick outlet in case of emergency is to "replace" the blitzing player's positioning on the field.
This simply means running to the spot he came from, as there generally will not be an automatic coverage replacement within the formerly occupied spot on the field. This most frequently applies to the routes of running backs, tight ends and slot wide receivers.
With Laurinaitis, who typically aligns as an inside linebacker, and Barron, who has almost exclusively made a living on the weak side since his positional transition to linebacker three weeks ago, there tends to be plenty of open space in between the hash marks given both linebackers play a key role in Williams' blitz packages
Including Akeem Ayers (20 pass-rushing snaps), who plays in a bit of a part-time role at strong-side linebacker, this makes three Rams backers who rush the passer at a high rate.
As a result of Williams' aggressive linebacker blitz packages—and other schematic and execution issues—St. Louis has had a very difficult time defending the middle of the field, with the aforementioned positional trio of running backs, tight ends and slot wide receivers doing the majority of the damage.
Here is a primary example of a slot receiver taking advantage of a wide-open middle of the field from St. Louis' Week 5 matchup against the Green Bay Packers.
Prior to the frozen frame, rookie wide receiver Ty Montgomery shifted further inside—though he technically was still an outside receiver on this play—right next to tight end Richard Rodgers.
Thanks to an extra rusher (five total), some fancy footwork, free safety Rodney McLeod having his back turned to the play and cornerback Trumaine Johnson getting caught leaning in the wrong direction, Montgomery emerged wide open across the middle of the field.
He planted his foot hard (red circle) into the ground, which put Johnson and strong safety T.J. McDonald in a pickle. The pair of defensive backs each make a snap decision on who to trail (Montgomery or Rodgers), correctly sticking with their original opponent. However, Johnson gets too caught up in the congestion and guesses the Packers wide receiver is in the midst of an out route—when actually he is running a dig.
Unbeknownst to McLeod, Johnson's mishap combined with the diversion created by the Packers tight end had sprung Montgomery wide open over the middle. He ultimately catches a perfectly thrown Rodgers pass and houses it for a 31-yard score.
While far more factors than simply an additional pass-rusher influenced this specific defensive breakdown, the point here remains the same: Williams' aggressiveness can be taken advantage of over the middle of the field—and season-long statistics support this perspective.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams are allowing a 72.4-percent completion rate (84-of-116) on passes over the middle. If one considers Colin Kaepernick's Week 8 performance against the Rams as an outlier, this figure skyrockets all the way up to 81.2 percent (78-of-96).
These numbers have translated to consistent success by opposing running backs, tight ends and slot receivers, with at least one of these positions hauling in a minimum of four receptions against St. Louis per week.
| Week | Player | Position | Receptions | Targets | Yards | Touchdowns |
| 1 | Jimmy Graham | TE | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| 1 | Marshawn Lynch | RB | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| 2 | Jordan Reed | TE | 6 | 6 | 82 | 0 |
| 2 | Redskins | Slot WR | 6 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| 3 | Le'Veon Bell | RB | 7 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| 4 | David Johnson | RB | 4 | 9 | 63 | 1 |
| 5 | Richard Rodgers | TE | 6 | 8 | 45 | 0 |
| 7 | Gary Barnidge | TE | 6 | 7 | 101 | 0 |
| 7 | Duke Johnson | RB | 7 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| 7 | Browns | Slot WR | 7 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| 8 | Vernon Davis | TE | 6 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Total | - | - | 66 | 79 | 652 | 2 |
As the table shows, the all-worldly Rams defense has had serious issues defending against these three positions, which coincidentally tend to be considered afterthoughts when compared to split end or flanker wide receivers. Among just the players and positional groups noted above, St. Louis has allowed a completion percentage of 83.5, an average of 93.1 yards per week and a pair of touchdowns.
The production isn't groundbreaking, but it's exactly what the Vikings will need to pair with their Peterson-led running attack—an efficient way to move the ball through the air.
By comparison, Rams defensive backs have allowed just three of 16 pass attempts (18.75 percent) that travel 20-plus yards through the air to result in receptions while yielding just 88 receiving yards and an interception (Pro Football Focus).
As it relates to Teddy Bridgewater, the Vikings quarterback has completed 82.2 percent (65-of-79) of his pass attempts over the middle of the field for a total of 696 passing yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. In terms of downfield attempts, Bridgewater is converting pass attempts at a 37.5-percent rate (9-of-24) with 273 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception.
The cumulative downfield completion rate recorded by the 21 quarterbacks who have recorded the minimum requirement of 25 20-plus-yard aerial attempts this season amounts to a mean percentage of 33.9 (Pro Football Focus).
Compared to the Rams' 18.75 percentage seasonal figure, one may conclude throwing the long ball against a starting nickel secondary composed of Janoris Jenkins, Lamarcus Joyner, Johnson, McCleod and McDonald may not be an efficient play selection method. Given the 3:1 catch-to-inteception ratio embedded within the 19 20-plus-yard attempts against St. Louis, it may not only have the potential to be an inefficient play call, but a dangerous one as well.
Bridgewater's downfield totals are encouraging—at least when compared to the league average—but sticking to the middle of the field through targeting players such as Kyle Rudolph and Jarius Wright promises to be much more efficient, time consuming and result in a turnover far less frequently.
Peterson doesn't fit the same mold as the pass-catching running backs that have excelled against the Rams with this very specific attack strategy, but Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata do, which should make Minnesota's 2014 rushing combination somewhat of a factor on Sunday.
Expect plenty of rushing attempts for Peterson, but given Minnesota is playing at home (no noise on offense) and rosters—at least—two of the necessary positional pieces to "dink and dunk" the Rams stellar defense, plenty of short, quick pass attempts should be featured as well.
"We're at home so that's the most important thing," guard Brandon Fusco said. "I mean, you're just comfortable with the surroundings, we get to use our snap count; it gets the defense a little off balance getting off the ball.
"Just being able to communicate better at home, and we can hear each other when we make calls."
Given Minnesota's offensive has been a major weak point this season, this benefit of playing at home is quietly very important and may potentially be a difference-maker. The advantage of knowing exactly when to pop out of the three-point stance is huge, as St. Louis' defensive linemen will be playing a 60-minute guessing game.
This attack strategy, which is essentially based on a theory that an efficient Bridgewater results in an efficient Vikings offense, not only plays to Minnesota's stifling defense (time of possession), but should also help Minnesota lessen the frequency of multiple drive-killing aspects Turner noted while addressing concerns about the Vikings' struggling red-zone offense.
"What you're trying to do is stay on schedule, create a situation where you can get inside the five [yard line] and have the ability to run the ball or throw the ball," Turner said.
"There was a stretch there where we've struggled, and that's more about us than what I think about how the defense is doing."
Maybe Williams should take Peterson's subliminal warning regarding his aggressive play-calling seriously.
Oh, and keep an eye out for rookie Stefon Diggs too. He has certainly been doing OK, making it a bit surprising he essentially went unnamed throughout the explanation of this game plan.
Defensive Game Plan
The Vikings defense should look pretty similar to the mean against the Rams on Sunday, but there will be one major difference. According to ESPN's Ben Goessling, stud rookie Eric Kendricks will join Sharrif Floyd on the sideline this Sunday due to a rib injury:
"Eric Kendricks and Sharrif Floyd are officially out; Anthony Barr is questionable for Sunday.
— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingESPN) November 6, 2015"
Goessling also lists Minnesota's other UCLA linebacker, Anthony Barr, as questionable for St. Louis, but Andrew Krammer of 1500 ESPN minimized concerns of him missing the game:
"Anthony Barr was "full go" in practice today, per Zimmer. "You can tweet that."
— Andrew Krammer (@Andrew_Krammer) November 6, 2015"
Kendricks will be missed, as he has formed an outstanding double-A gap blitz combination with his former roommate at UCLA this year, but the Vikings will be in good hands with Audie Cole. He seemingly always plays well in spot starter duty, lining up 11 tackles the last time he played a full percentage of snaps against the Bears in Week 17 of last year.
As for the general attack strategy, nothing has changed. Zimmer will aim to hit the quarterback as frequently as possible, and despite Kendricks being inactive, he should call a high percentage of blitz attempts against Foles and Co.
According to Pro Football Focus, Nick Foles is completing 52.8 (28-of-53) and 47.1 (33-of-70) percent of his pass attempts against the blitz and pressure, respectively. Against the blitz, his touchdown-to-interception ratio stands at 4:2, while the same number sequence spelled out against pressure is 2:3.
Furthermore, the Rams' offensive line, particularly left tackle Greg Robinson (minus-16.9) and right guard Jamon Brown (minus-13.0) have allowed a collective total of 80 pressures in seven games (11.4 per), including nine sacks (1.2 per) and 27 quarterback hits (3.85 per) this season. All of this statistical data resolves one thing: Zimmer's defensive scheme, play-calling style and talented personnel appears scheduled to ruin Foles' day on Sunday.
Effective blitzing plays an integral part of any strong defensive performance, but the real players the Vikings need to be keying in on are Gurley and gadget "wide receiver" Tavon Austin.
Before getting into a brief analysis of the former Georgia running back, understand Gurley is going to have some success this weekend—it's inevitable. Not only has he not provided any sort of film displaying a way to stop him or even a weakness that can be keyed in on to optimize defensive efficiency against St. Louis' running game, but Gurley is as perfect as they come at the running back position.
Through four games in which he has been given the keys to the Rams' rushing offense, Gurley has recorded 566 rushing yards, three touchdowns and a per-carry average floating around 6.0. A full 16-game season of these statistics amounts to a new single-season rushing record (2,264 yards) and 12 touchdowns.
Zimmer is in the conversation as the best defensive mind in the NFL, and he may prove to be the one to hold Gurley under 125 rushing yards or at least his per-game average of 141.5, but the Rams' greatest offensive weapon is going to find a way to beat the Vikings at some point.
Minimizing the damage is the key here—something defenses have been saying about Peterson for almost a decade.
There is a reason why Gurley has drawn comparisons to Minnesota's legendary running back, and it's not just his acceleration or speed out of his cuts; these comparisons are largely based on the intangible aspects of his game. He shows top-notch intangible elements all over his tape, but this touchdown run against the Cleveland Browns may be the very best example.
Gurley is handed the ball on a stretch play to the strong side of St. Louis' offensive formation. At about the point he reaches a five-yard carry, Browns defenders surround him. But, check out the direction in which his helmet is facing in the first freeze frame; he notices a small gap closing between two defenders on the right side and one—which he has blocking help with—on the left.
Faster than a blink of the eye, Gurley cuts back through the middle of the trio of Browns players, accelerates to his top speed before the defenders can regain their footing and explodes into the end zone at an angle that makes him out of reach to Cleveland's last line of defense. Simply put, it is not done much better than that.
"We haven't seen a 200-yard rushing day out of him," Fisher said with a smile in response to a question about his rookie running back. "It'll happen."
The greatness of Gurley increases the overall level of play of the rest of St. Louis' offense, just as Peterson has for so many years. Potentially the greatest benefactor of this is Austin, who is finally having his outstanding natural abilities optimally utilized.
Cignetti has little issue lining him up anywhere on the field, including at running back—shown above. One of the most common places Austin has aligned this season, especially over the past three games has been amongst one or more wide receivers on the outside or in the slot. Regardless of where he specifically is aligned in these situations, he is always dangerous.
The frame-by-frame breakdown above and below is the result of a play in which he received a screen pass, but Cignetti also uses similar alignments to give him the ball on reverse plays—yes, there is a confusion aspect to it as well, making Zimmer's ability to time blitzes effectively more difficult.
Just like Gurley, Austin can make defenses pay in the blink of an eye. His versatility, however, is unique to his skill set and really only is matched by a young Percy Harvin and the rookie version of Cordarrelle Patterson. The following end-around play appears to be designed in likeness of Harvin, as the formation, strategy and alignments share a lot of common ground with Bill Musgrave's late-2000s design.
The play design is actually very simple: Foles fakes a handoff to Gurley, flips the ball to Austin as he makes his way through the backfield, Cook pulls and runs behind the Rams offensive line to get out front in order to serve the key role of lead blocker.
Simply put, the entire offensive line blocks to its left, pushing the pile away from direction Austin is heading—at a lightning-fast pace. One Browns defender is left alone, which is by design, as he is Cook's first blocking responsibility.
The play continues to move smoothly, as Austin receives the flip from Foles and begins to determine the optimal angle to reach the right edge of the offensive line without getting ahead of Cook—who did an excellent job quickly creating distance between him and Austin within a small amount of space.
Boom—Austin speeds up, Cook uses his athleticism to keep himself in front of his teammate and the pairing of Rams offensive weapons is off to the races. Again, all of this happened in a blink of an eye. At the time of the snap, defenders were forced to quickly decipher which gadget play Cignetti had called for Austin, and milliseconds later the third-year "wide receiver" was bursting into the open field.
Simply, the Vikings aren't going to be able to completely stop Gurley; he's just one of those talents. Minnesota is strong enough defensively to hold him in check, but the key to a successful defensive performance manifests itself in how Austin is accounted for.
Captain Munnerlyn, Minnesota's slot cornerback, has been lethal at blowing up screens and has also maintained near-perfect coverage on opposing slot receivers. He will play a major role in stopping Austin, but the most critical elements to keeping the focus on Gurley are discipline, preparation and maintaining gap assignments despite plays that may initially appear to require an "on-the-fly" change.
Foles isn't going to beat the Vikings on Sunday, but Gurley possesses the ability to thanks to being supported by a top-notch defense. If Minnesota can hold him to under 100 rushing yards for the first time in his career and disallow any 50-plus-yard, game-breaking Austin touchdowns, the Vikings should be in great shape to come out with a win at home.
Key Players
Jarius Wright, Wide Receiver, Minnesota
The efficiency-based offensive game plan outlined above centers around three positions: running back, tight end and slot wide receiver. Since Peterson isn't on the receiving end of too many Bridgewater passes, McKinnon and Asiata won't be on the field enough to play a key role and Rudolph has struggled to impact the game anywhere outside of the red zone, Wright gets the nod here.
This all ramps up to him being the best target for executing an efficient, "dink and dunk" passing strategy to brutalize St. Louis' issues defending the middle of the field while also taking advantage of Williams' aggressive defensive play-calling. Wright is an overlooked member of the Vikings' wide receiver corps at this point, but he shouldn't be this weekend if Turner opts for efficiency.
Tavon Austin, Wide Receiver, St. Louis
With exception to out-jumping cornerbacks in the red zone, this 5'8" wide receiver can do it all. Cignetti utilizes Austin in ways former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer could not even dream of designing. He has become an integral member of a rather lackluster Rams offense—outside of Gurley, that is—and is always a threat to hit the big play from just about any place on the field in any which way.
Oh, and Austin also has a tendency to make things happen as a return man. Bonus points.
Captain Munnerlyn, Cornerback, Minnesota
While Austin can create offense in a number of different ways, his No. 1 attribute is an ability to gain yards after the catch. Further, when he is actually pretending to be a wide receiver, he operates primarily out of the slot, which is the area Munnerlyn patrols for the Vikings.
In his second year as the Vikings' starting slot cornerback, Munnerlyn has been outstanding following some major growing pains in Year 1. He is a case-closed tackler, excellent in coverage and seemingly has a nose for the football—regardless of whether it's in someone else's hands, in the air or rolling around on the ground.
Munnerlyn has done a great job of emulating Harrison Smith's style of play this year, and he will be critical to stopping Austin—and even Gurley to a degree. With Foles at the helm for St. Louis, this is likely a great bet to be the game he records his first interception on the year as well.
Aaron Donald, Defensive Tackle, St. Louis
From Donald to Quinn to Jenkins, the Rams defense is filled with All-Pro-caliber studs. Despite a multitude of glorious players to choose from as the team's top defensive player, Donald wins this discussion in definitive fashion.
He absolutely destroys interior offensive linemen—something Minnesota has a very average trio of—both in run defense and as a pass-rusher. By the end of this season, Donald should be recognized as a top-10, if not top-five, defender in the NFL. He has simply been unstoppable through 1.5 seasons.
If Peterson is unable to get anything done on the ground this weekend, chances are very good Donald was the reason.
Prediction
Despite all the talk about Peterson, Gurley and the passing of the torch narrative between the veteran and rookie, this game will be all about defense. Honestly, it will not shock me if both teams fail to reach double-digit point totals—a real barn burner.
Gurley is the better running back come Sunday, but it's still very close—even if Peterson is hurting Minnesota's offense due to an inability to adapt to Turner's "base" offensive alignment in the shotgun. Similarly, St. Louis also has a slight edge over Minnesota when comparing both defenses as collective, three-level units.
However, Minnesota owns a distinct advantage in aerial weaponry.
Bridgewater is a much better quarterback than Foles; his 27:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio with the Philadelphia Eagles is irrelevant now. Not only is Bridgewater more naturally talented, more accurate and a better decision-maker, but he has also gotten into a consistently successful rhythm with Diggs, who has established himself as a star in the making during his first four starts.
Aside from Gurley and Austin, there really isn't much to be afraid of when looking over the Rams' depth chart on offense. Cook has a tendency to throw together a strong performance every once in awhile, and Minnesota's issues covering tight ends could be a factor here.
Forgotten Rams wide receiver Brian Quick, who seemingly is still trying to get healthy, has plenty of talent and has shown flashes, but he wouldn't even be a top-three wide receiver in Minnesota.
Having the better quarterback and the overall more well-rounded offense in combination with a defense that has the potential to suffocate a very subpar Foles-led aerial attack makes this matchup look like a hard-fought win for Minnesota.
Minnesota and St. Louis are very close in terms of overall talent and maybe even closer when taking a look at growth potential over the next few years. But, Bridgewater, home-field advantage and a well-prepared Vikings defense will earn them win No. 6 on the year while inspiring a collective rise in blood pressure throughout the Twin Cities, per usual.
In the end, the Purple and Gold will triumph over the not-so-great show on turf with the final score separating this pair of potential playoff teams by four.
Final Score: Vikings 16, Rams 12
Statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
For more Vikings news, analysis and discussion, find me on Twitter @RobertReidellBT.
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