Projecting 1 Impact Free-Agent Move Every MLB Team Will Make This Winter
From David Price to Zack Greinke, the MLB free-agent market is flooded with starting pitchers.
After looking back at the season that was and surveying the upcoming free-agent class, here are projections for where all those impact players will end up signing.
From aces like Price and Greinke to lower-tier guys like Scott Kazmir and Marco Estrada, the list that follows is dominated by starting pitchers. However, there's still room for a slew of power bullpen arms and big-time bats. One masher who makes the list is Yoenis Cespedes, who could end up inking a deal with a dark-horse club.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Doug Fister, SP
With a solid core of position players headlined by the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock, the future is looking bright in the desert.
While many of the necessary bats are already in place, an arm or two—especially in the rotation—will need to be imported. According to Zach Buchanan of AZCentral Sports, the Arizona Diamondbacks are unlikely to break the bank to bring in an ace.
“If you want to go after one of the top-tier guys, it’s probably going to limit anything else we can do in the offseason,” team president and CEO Derrick Hall said.
If the D-backs are feeling thrifty, Doug Fister is one starter to consider. The vet pitched his way out of the Washington Nationals' rotation last summer (4.19 ERA in 2015), but he looks like an ideal buy-low candidate. Check out his numbers from 2012 to 2014:
- 2012: 3.45 ERA, 26 starts
- 2013: 3.67 ERA, 32 starts
- 2014: 2.41 ERA, 25 starts
Arizona could look to ink the right-hander on a one-year deal, which would allow Fister to rebuild his value before re-entering the market next offseason.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Matt Wieters, C
For the rebuilding Atlanta Braves, who have spent the past year stockpiling pitching talent, signing a savvy veteran backstop like Matt Wieters would be an intelligent move to make.
As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noted, joining the Braves would make sense from a geographical perspective for Wieters as he played his college ball at Georgia Tech. Even though he posted only a .742 OPS in 2015, Wieters is unquestionably the premier free-agent catcher in this year's class, as you can see via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
Baltimore Orioles
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The Impact Free Agent: Mike Leake, SP
The starting rotation just didn't get the job done for the Baltimore Orioles during a disappointing 2015 season. As a group, the O's starters posted the second-worst ERA in the American League.
To make matters worse, Wei-Yin Chen, who was was one of the club's most consistent starters (3.34 ERA), is now a free agent. Suffice it to say that Baltimore needs to sign up at least one new starting pitcher if the team is going to avoid yet another underwhelming season in 2016.
Mike Leake is one free-agent pitcher who vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette needs to check in on. The right-hander is not only highly reliable (at least 192 innings in each of the past three seasons), but one of the youngest arms on the block at 27.
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Boston Red Sox
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The Impact Free Agent: Johnny Cueto, SP
There's not other way to put it: The Boston Red Sox really need an ace.
At times during the Kansas City Royals' World Series run, Johnny Cueto had the look of a pitcher who could fill that role. The righty joined Roger Clemens as one of only two pitchers to ever post multiple eight-plus inning outings with two hits or less in the same postseason, per the MLB Stat of the Day Twitter account.
As impressive as he was on the big stage, it's still impossible to forget his wobbly second half with the Royals. In 13 starts with Kansas City, Cueto ran up a 4.76 ERA.
Now, it will be left to clubs like the Red Sox to try to figure out which Cueto will show up in 2016. Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald cited a "major league source" who said "the Red Sox are at least considering making a serious push for the right-hander."
Chicago Cubs
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The Impact Free Agent: David Price, SP
David Price is one of the most popular targets on the free-agent front this offseason. So, it's only natural that the speculation surrounding where he'll land next has already begun. As Richard Justice of MLB.com sees it, a trip to Wrigley Field could be in the lefty's future.
“If I had a bet I would say he’ll sign with the [Chicago] Cubs & we'll have a [Joe] Maddon/Price reunion," Justice said on MLB Network's High Heat, via the MLB Network PR Twitter account.
Such a reunion would result in the Cubs having a filthy one-two-three combo of Price, Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. Such a reunion would also be incredibly expensive, as Jon Heyman of CBS Sports predicted that the lefty's "expected asking price" will be $200 million or more.
Chicago White Sox
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The Impact Free Agent: Ian Desmond, SS
Dishing out a multiyear deal to a 30-year-old shortstop isn't exactly the smartest idea.
But it's not out of the question to think that a team like the Chicago White Sox, who are hurting at that position, could bring in Ian Desmond on a one-year deal. As Grant Brisbee of SB Nation explained:
"Is he going to look for a one-year deal? Seems like a player who could benefit financially from a bounce-back season, considering how rare of a player he is when he's right. A Gold Glove-nominated shortstop with 25-homer power is a beautiful helpful thing."
A one-year deal for the vet would make sense for both sides. Desmond (.233 average in 2015) would get the chance to rebuild his value, and the White Sox would get a bridge to top prospect Tim Anderson, who spend the 2015 season in Double-A.
Cincinnati Reds
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The Impact Free Agent: Austin Jackson, OF
With the Cincinnati Reds rebounding from a 98-loss season and the National League Central once again shaping up to be highly competitive in the upcoming campaign, this offseason doesn't look like the time for the team to get super-aggressive on the free-agent front.
But even if the Reds play it safe this winter, the club still needs to add an outfielder to the roster. Making a move for an established veteran like Austin Jackson would not only provide the Reds with a viable option for left field, it would give the team cover in center should Billy Hamilton once again stumble in 2016.
Cleveland Indians
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The Impact Free Agent: Dexter Fowler, CF
Dexter Fowler would be the ideal addition to help jump-start a Cleveland Indians lineup that ranked No. 11 in runs in the AL a season ago.
By bringing in the vet to set the table from the leadoff spot, the Tribe could push rising star Francisco Lindor into the heart of the lineup. Last season with the Chicago Cubs, Fowler enjoyed an excellent season across the board, providing a rare combination of power and speed. The center fielder clubbed 29 doubles, eight triples and 17 home runs while swiping 20 bags.
Colorado Rockies
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The Impact Free Agent: Mike Napoli, 1B
With the Colorado Rockies having already declined the 2016 option of Justin Morneau, the NL West squad has an opening at first base.
Mike Napoli, who took off following his summer swap (.908 OPS in 35 games) to the Texas Rangers, is one candidate to fill that gig. As Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explained, this would be the kind of low-risk move that could benefit both the club and the player.
Napoli would play his home games in the hitting haven that is Coors Field. Meanwhile, if the Rockies end up in the tank again next summer, the club could turn around and flip the masher to a playoff hopeful.
Detroit Tigers
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The Impact Free Agent: Scott Kazmir, SP
With the worst ERA in the AL, the Detroit Tigers starting staff was atrocious in 2015.
As a result, revamping that group will be priority No. 1 in Motown this offseason, according to Chris Iott of MLive.com. As Iott explained, general manager Al Avila is unlikely to make a splash for an ace like David Price, Zack Greinke or Johnny Cueto, but a second-tier starter like Scott Kazmir could be in play.
While splitting the season with the Oakland Athletics and the Houston Astros, the lefty threw 183 innings and posted a 3.10 ERA, which was the fourth-best mark in the AL. While the overall numbers stood out, there could be some concern about the fashion in which Kazmir closed out the campaign. In six September starts, Kazmir racked up a 6.52 ERA.
Houston Astros
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The Impact Free Agent: Wei-Yin Chen, SP
If summer addition Scott Kazmir departs this offseason, the Houston Astros should be sure to add another veteran to help stabilize the rotation. While he doesn't generate much buzz, Wei-Yin Chen has asserted himself as a highly reliable left-handed starter.
The 30-year-old has been especially strong with the Baltimore Orioles over the past couple of seasons. Back in 2014, Chen clocked in with a 3.54 ERA before posting his best numbers yet in 2015. Last year, the starter threw a career-high 191.1 frames, while posting a career-low 3.34 ERA. That mark was the seventh-best ERA in the AL among starting pitchers.
Kansas City Royals
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The Impact Free Agent: Alex Gordon, LF
As Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star reported, Alex Gordon has officially declined his $13 million team option for 2016. However, that doesn't mean he's necessarily played his last game for the Kansas City Royals just yet.
When it comes to trying to bring back the outfield stalwart, Gordon's age could actually help the Royals' cause.
The left fielder will be 32 by the time the 2016 season rolls around. One GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he wouldn't offer Gordon more than three years at around $36 million to $38 million. If that turns out to be the price tag for a four-time Gold Glover, the Royals shouldn't hesitate to bring him back.
Los Angeles Angels
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The Impact Free Agent: Chris Davis, 1B/OF
With Mike Trout and Albert Pujols headlining the offensive attack, the Los Angeles Angels' batting order is leaning heavily to the right side.
That's where Chris Davis enters the equation.
Bringing in Crush Davis, who clubbed more home runs (47) than anyone else in baseball last season, would give the Halos a monstrous three-four-five combo. What's more, the versatile 29-year-old would also be a good defensive fit with the club because he could see time in left and at first base.
Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Impact Free Agent: Zack Greinke, SP
For the Los Angeles Dodgers, it's time to pay the man.
And that man is Zack Greinke, who has opted out of the final three years and $71 million left on his deal, per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. As Shaikin notes, Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood would be the club's only healthy starters under club control for 2016 if the Dodgers allowed Greinke to walk away.
The challenge here will be to strike a new deal that is agreeable to both sides. Greinke is in the perfect position to cash in after ripping off a 1.66 ERA. Meanwhile, the Dodgers would be smart to sign the right-hander to a five-year deal or shorter, as he's already 32 years old.
Miami Marlins
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The Impact Free Agent: Yoenis Cespedes, OF
Could Yoenis Cespedes be taking his talents to South Beach?
Back at the beginning of October, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported that the Miami Marlins "like" the Cuban slugger. However, Jackson did add that the club would be leery to give him the six-year deal Cespedes is seeking.
There's always a risk in signing a player to such a lengthy deal, but Cespedes and Giancarlo Stanton would combine to form a heart of the order that would absolutely batter the Senior Circuit.
If the Fish were to make a splash for the 30-year-old, the Marlins could clear room in center field by trading away Marcell Ozuna. Joe Frisaro of MLB.com recently tweeted that he "wouldn't be shocked" if the 24-year-old got dealt this offseason.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Denard Span, CF
All it takes is one look at the 2015 standings to see what kind of an impact leadoff man Denard Span made. Last season, the Washington Nationals were 36-25 when the left-handed hitter started, as James Wagner of the Washington Post noted.
Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana and Khris Davis are all in the mix in the Brew Crew's 2016 outfield picture. But with the Milwaukee Brewers lacking a true center fielder, finding a way to bring Span to Miller Park would be a logical move.
Minnesota Twins
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The Impact Free Agent: Tony Sipp, RP
Ranking No. 10 in the AL in ERA and ranking No. 5 in losses, the bullpen was one of the primary trouble spots for the Minnesota Twins in 2015.
As the front office digs through the free-agent market in search of arms to bolster that group, Tony Sipp is one name to seriously consider. The unheralded 32-year-old posted a 1.99 ERA for the Houston Astros in 2015 and also piled up punchouts, recording 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. And the reliever wasn't just a lefty specialist. Sipp limited righties to a .190 average while holding southpaws to a .227 mark.
New York Mets
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The Impact Free Agent: Darren O'Day, RP
During the New York Mets' October run, the club's bullpen was badly exposed.
Throughout much of the postseason, the team's No. 4 and No. 5 starters—Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese—proved to be manager Terry Collins' most trusted options in relief. As a result, GM Sandy Alderson will have to bolster the relief corps heading into the 2016 season.
Surveying the free-agent class on Cot's Baseball Contracts, Darren O'Day looks like the best of the bunch. While pitching for the Baltimore Orioles in 2015, the righty dismantled the AL, sporting a 1.52 ERA and limiting the opposition to a .198 average. Importing the vet would be a shrewd way to bridge the gap from the standout rotation to closer Jeurys Familia.
New York Yankees
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The Impact Free Agent: Justin Upton, OF
There are a couple of reasons why Justin Upton would be an intriguing free-agent target for the New York Yankees.
The first is his age. At 28, the outfielder is on the young end of the spectrum to be hitting the free-agent block, making him an ideal addition to a roster littered with aging players.
Then there's all that pop. The right-handed hitter crushed 26 home runs in 2015 while playing his home game at the cavernous Petco Park. Back in 2014, he clocked in with 34 bombs for the Atlanta Braves. With Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira already in the fold, bringing in Upton would give the AL East squad one imposing three-four-five combo.
Oakland Athletics
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The Impact Free Agent: Shawn Kelley, RP
A lot went wrong for the Oakland Athletics in 2015 as the team tumbled in the cellar in the AL West. For the last-place club, no issue was more glaring than the mess of a bullpen, which sported the third-worst ERA in baseball.
The pen makeover has already begun, as guys like Dan Otero, Pat Venditte and Edward Mujica have all departed from the O.co Coliseum. Now, it's time for executive vice president of baseball operations Billy Beane to start making some additions.
Bringing in strikeout-throwing machine Shawn Kelley would be a great place for the exec to start. While spending 2015 with the San Diego Padres, Kelley recorded 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.45 ERA in 53 outings.
Philadelphia Phillies
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The Impact Free Agent: Ian Kennedy, SP
With a rotation stocked with inexperienced arms like Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff, the Philadelphia Phillies need all the innings they can get. Last year, the group logged the third-fewest innings in the Senior Circuit.
Bringing in a veteran starter like Ian Kennedy would immediately aid the Phils in that department. Over the past six seasons, Kennedy has never thrown fewer than 168.1 frames. Last year, Aaron Harang was the only member of the staff who surpassed that total.
While Kennedy's 4.28 ERA in 2015 doesn't jump off the page, it's worth pointing out that the right-hander was significantly more effective during the second half of the season. In his final 14 outings, Kennedy posted a 3.64 ERA.
Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Impact Free Agent: J.A. Happ, SP
GM Neal Huntington deserves a ton of credit for acquiring J.A. Happ right before the trade deadline.
The owner of z 4.64 ERA in 21 outings for the Seattle Mariners at the time of the swap, Happ went on to record a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, it will be up to the Bucs exec to make sure that Happ is back at PNC Park in 2016.
After his summer resurgence, Happ is deserving of a multiyear deal. However, considering the fact that Happ is already 33, the Pirates shouldn't go beyond a three-year contract for the starter.
San Diego Padres
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The Impact Free Agent: Brett Anderson, SP
With a right-handed heavy rotation that features guys like James Shields, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, the San Diego Padres could use a lefty to balance things out, as Corey Brock of MLB.com noted.
Signing Brett Anderson, who pitched for the Pads' NL West neighbors the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015, would be one way for San Diego to make that happen. The 27-year-old is coming off his most consistent season yet in the majors, as he pitched a career-high 180.1 innings in 2015 and checked in with a 3.69 ERA.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Jordan Zimmermann, SP
There's no question about it. The San Francisco Giants need a No. 2 starter to plug into the rotation behind Madison Bumgarner.
As Bleacher Report's Scott Miller explained to Tom Tolbert and Ray Ratto on KNBR 680, Jordan Zimmermann is just the kind of front-line pitcher who the Giants could zero in on to fill that role.
With a 3.32 ERA in seven seasons in the bigs, Zimmermann is in line for a major payday. However, it's worth noting that the 29-year-old wasn't at his best in the second half. In his final 15 starts, Zimmermann piled up a 4.20 ERA. A new start at the spacious AT&T Park could be exactly what the starter needs to return to his ace form in 2016.
Seattle Mariners
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The Impact Free Agent: Hisashi Iwakuma, SP
Just ask Hisashi Iwakuma. The right-handed starter wants to return to Safeco Field for a fifth season in 2016.
"I made a lot of friends here," Iwakuma told Bob Dutton of the News Tribune toward the end of the 2015 campaign. "We have a lot of good teammates. I feel like I have a relationship here. All I can do now is wait."
As Dutton explained, bringing back Iwakuma is a "priority" for new GM Jerry Dipoto. Iwakuma pushed his way to the top of the organization's offseason to-do list by turning in a strong second half. Following the All-Star break, the 34-year-old recorded a 3.05 ERA in 15 starts.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Jason Heyward, RF
The St. Louis Cardinals are going to have to break out the checkbook in order to retain defensive star Jason Heyward. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports explained just how big of a check the Cards will have to cut.
"While the Cardinals could go a bit beyond the team record $120 million deal that Matt Holliday got, Heyward is certainly going to insist on beating Jacoby Ellsbury's $153 million deal and getting as close to $200 million as possible."
If ever there was a time to shatter the club's record deal, now is it. Heyward was outstanding on defense, as he saved the Cardinals 24 runs in the field, per FanGraphs. Plus, he provided plenty of production at the plate, chipping in 33 doubles and a .293 average.
But the real kicker is his age. Just 26 years old, Heyward is unusually young to be hitting the free-agent market.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Dioner Navarro, C
An upgrade behind the plate is in order after the Tampa Bay Rays' catchers combined to post a .201 average and a .601 OPS in 2015.
The bad news for the Rays is that the free-agent market for backstops is extremely limited, as you can see via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
One player who could be worth a look is Dioner Navarro. The 31-year-old didn't do much while spending most of the 2015 season on the bench (.246 average in 54 games) for the Toronto Blue Jays. But he provide a significant amount of production back in 2014 when he logged a .274 average and connected on 12 home runs.
Texas Rangers
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The Impact Free Agent: John Lackey, SP
According to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com, John Lackey is looking to secure one last multiyear deal. The Texas Rangers would be wise to check in on the 37-year-old—especially if they could reel him in on a two-year deal.
The owner of a 2.77 ERA in 2015 with the St. Louis Cardinals, Lackey would provide the Rangers with a formidable one-two punch if paired atop the rotation with Cole Hamels. That front end could be even stronger by May when Yu Darvish (Tommy John surgery) is expected back, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
As has been previously noted, Lackey would also be a logical fit with the AL West champs from a geographical perspective, as he hails from Texas.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Impact Free Agent: Marco Estrada, SP
Quietly, Marco Estrada crushed it during his contract season.
In 2015, the righty was fifth among AL starters with a 3.13 ERA in 34 outings. And Estrada just kept getting better as the season wore on.
In the second half, the 32-year-old limited the opposition to a .183 batting average. Estrada also came up big in the postseason, sporting a 2.33 ERA in three starts during the Toronto Blue Jays' run to the AL Championship Series.
Thanks to those numbers, the starter has earned himself a substantial raise from the $3.9 million salary he earned in 2015.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
The Impact Free Agent: Ben Zobrist, UTL
One of the oft-forgotten but crucial storylines of 2015 for the Washington Nationals was the team's inability to keep its key cogs healthy and in the lineup. Position players like Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Denard Span and Ryan Zimmerman all spent significant time on the shelf a season ago.
One way for the Nats to avoid a repeat of the situation would be to sign super-utility man Ben Zobrist. With the Nationals, the 34-year-old could spend most of his time at second base, but also provide cover at third and in the outfield corners.
As Jim Meyerriecks of FederalBaseball.com pointed out, Washington would likely need to ship out either Yunel Escobar or Danny Espinosa to clear out room in the infield for Zobrist.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on Baseball-Prospectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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