B/R MLB Offseason 100: The Top 10 Catchers Available
After taking a look at the top corner and middle infielders on the market this winter, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 will now head behind the dish to examine the top available catchers.
By plucking players from the free-agent and trade markets, we've compiled a list of the market's 10 most desirable backstops. As for how the rankings work, each player is rated according to a scoring system that adds up to a total of 100 points:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys' bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.
In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
10. Carlos Ruiz, C, Trade
1 of 10
Rumor Source: Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly
Talent Outlook
After a solid offensive season in 2014, Carlos Ruiz was dreadful in 2015. He hit just .211 with a .575 OPS. With that in the books, the 36-year-old veteran has now put up two lousy offensive seasons in the last three years. Add in poor throwing and terrible receiving on defense, and Ruiz's appeal seems limited.
That's not a mirage. It's become very difficult for Ruiz to make hard contact, and it's been years since his defense was any good. For interested parties, his only redeeming qualities are his ability to hit lefties and his leadership skills. He's not much more than veteran-presence material.
Durability Outlook
Ruiz has played in just 402 games over the last four seasons, in part because of foot, thigh and head injuries. And with his 37th birthday due up in January, any further ailments could take a greater toll.
If there's a bright side, it's that Ruiz made it through 2015 relatively unscathed over 86 games. But despite that, continued health in his final guaranteed contract year in 2016 is probably a toss-up.
Value Outlook
Ruiz is one of the only veterans the Phillies haven't traded yet, but Salisbury notes that the team will continue to make him available this winter. To move Ruiz, however, Philadelphia is likely going to need to eat a good chunk of the $9 million it still owes him.
Even if the Phillies do that, odds are they wouldn't get much in the way of a return. Ruiz may not be much of a player anymore, but at least he can be had for relatively little risk.
Total
9. Geovany Soto, C, Free Agent
2 of 10
Talent Outlook
Geovany Soto entered 2015 needing to put himself back on the map after an injury-wrecked 2014 season. He only sort of succeeded. Limited to a part-time role, he posted just a .708 OPS with nine home runs in 78 games. Continuing a recent trend, he was once again a below-average hitter.
Given that Soto strikes out a ton and hits mainly fly balls, consistency is likely to keep eluding him. However, his fly-ball habit at least results in decent power, and he has value on defense thanks to his receiving skills. At the least, he's a solid backup option.
Durability Outlook
Soto may have only played in 78 games in 2015, but it wasn't because injuries got the better of him. Unlike in 2014, he made it through the season unscathed.
Even still, Soto's injury track record doesn't inspire confidence. Since 2010, he's dealt with a couple of shoulder problems and had surgeries on both knees. Even in a short-term deal, it will be hard to bank on the soon-to-be 33-year-old staying on the field.
Value Outlook
Though it seemed somewhat unlikely, Soto managed to find a major league deal worth $1.5 million last winter. Given that his 2015 season was notably more productive, he should be able to find a nice raise this winter.
However, that doesn't mean he's going to be expensive. Soto is a backup catcher who should find a one-year contract at a backup catcher rate.
Total
8. Brayan Pena, C, Free Agent
3 of 10
Talent Outlook
You don't employ Brayan Pena for his bat. He owns a .260 average and .651 OPS for his career, qualifying him as a well-below-average hitter. And so it has gone in the last two years, in which he's managed just a .652 OPS. These numbers could be ignored if Pena's defense was outstanding, but it's not.
Still, Pena does have some merits. At the least, he's going to put the ball in play when he's at the dish. And whereas he's terrible from the right side against lefties, he's nearly decent from the left side against righties. Lastly, he at least brings a bit of versatility on defense, as he can also play first base.
Durability Outlook
Pena is a soon-to-be 34-year-old who's spent parts of 11 seasons in the majors. But while that would make you think that he's dealt with his share of injuries, you'd be wrong. Pena hasn't been on the disabled list since 2008, and has dealt with only minor aches and pains since then.
For a guy who's only in the market for a short-term deal, this bodes well. Pena's age can't be ignored, but he is indeed a better bet to stay on the field than most guys his age.
Value Outlook
Pena is coming off a two-year contract with the Reds in which he made less than $3 million. Given his limited skill set and playing time potential, the best he can probably hope for is to match the $1.4 million salary he earned in 2015.
Pena may not be a steal at that rate, but it would be awfully difficult for him to be a waste.
Total
7. Alex Avila, C, Free Agent
4 of 10
Talent Outlook
Alex Avila is coming off a year in which he played in just 67 games and posted a career-worst .626 OPS. That marked his third straight year of safely below-average hitting, which so happens to correspond with a worsening swing-and-miss habit. Mix in poor pitch framing, and it looks like there's not much to see.
But don't call Avila a lost cause just yet. His excellent eye should continue to allow him to at least get on base at a decent rate. And though he may not be the best framer, he's thrown out at least 30 percent of would-be base stealers in three of four seasons, and there's research that says his reputation as an elite game-caller is well-earned. All told, he's one for the "Not Good, But Better Than You Think" pile.
Durability Outlook
This is where Avila's appeal is rocky. He's played in only 293 games over the last three seasons, in which he's battled several concussions and, most recently, a significant knee injury.
So suffice it to say Avila is pretty beat up for a guy who heading into his age-29 season old. And by far the biggest concern are those concussions. One is concerning enough, and he's been dealt a few more than one concussion. Even in what's likely to be a short-term deal, that's cause for alarm.
Value Outlook
Given the way his career has gone off the rails in recent seasons, it could be that Avila is only in line for a one-year deal this winter. But if Nick Hundley could find a two-year pact despite coming off a rough age-30 season last winter, Avila may be able to as well.
Whatever the case, it's hard to imagine Avila is in line for much money. And for a guy who can get on base and call a good game when healthy, that makes it possible that he could provide good value in the end.
Total
6. Dioner Navarro, C, Free Agent
5 of 10
Talent Outlook
When Dioner Navarro hit the open market a couple of winters ago, he was coming off a year in which he OPS'd .856 with 13 home runs. Now he's coming off a season in which he OPS'd just .682 with five home runs. And overall, he was roughly a league-average hitter in two seasons with Toronto with a 98 OPS+.
That may be the best that Navarro is capable of, as it's hard to be consistent when you're a pull hitter with a preference for fly balls. But Navarro is not totally without appeal. At the least, there's his track record against left-handed pitching and his ability to play solid, if less than spectacular, defense.
Durability Outlook
Russell Martin's arrival in Toronto marginalized Navarro's role on the team and ultimately limited him to just 54 games in 2015. Because of that, he's played in more than 100 contests in a season just once in the past six years.
The bright side, such as it is, is that injuries have had little to do with Navarro's recent track record of playing time. He's been relatively healthy. Because of that, he's in a better place than most catchers are when they get to be his age (nearly 32). In a short-term deal, durability may not be an issue.
Value Outlook
Navarro earned $5 million in 2015 and $8 million total in his two years in Toronto. At his age and coming off the kind of season he just had, it'll be a surprise if he finds another multiyear deal or that much salary. In all likelihood, he's headed for a cheap one-year pact.
If nothing else, it's hard to lose on contracts like those from a team perspective.
Total
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Free Agent
6 of 10
Talent Outlook
Jarrod Saltalamacchia had a devil of a time in Miami, posting just a .661 OPS in 123 games before being released in early 2015. But on either side of that performance is the good stuff: an .804 OPS in Boston in 2013 and an .805 OPS with Arizona down the stretch in 2015.
Mind you, Salty's cringe-worthy strikeout habit ensures that inconsistency will keep coming with the territory. And when he's not hitting, his defense doesn't make up for it. He's a subpar thrower and receiver. But with quality plate discipline and a bat that makes a lot of hard contact, he's worth a flier as a potentially dangerous power source behind the plate.
Durability Outlook
Saltalamacchia has played in only 193 games over the last two seasons, in part because a couple of injuries have laid him low. He missed some time with a concussion in 2014 and with a neck injury in 2015.
Otherwise, Saltalamacchia has been generally healthy in recent years. And though he's not young anymore with his age-31 season on the horizon, that he's only caught 669 games is encouraging. Many catchers his age are more beat up than he is. In a short-term deal, he's a decent bet to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
The last contract Saltalamacchia signed was for three years and $21 million. He's definitely not getting that kind of money again. But after bouncing back like he did in Arizona, it's possible that he'll find a cheap multiyear deal along the lines of the two-year, $8 million contract Dioner Navarro signed a couple winters ago.
Such a pact would be a steal if Saltalamacchia were to continue being his best self. But as far as that goes, well, who knows?
Total
4. Matt Wieters, C, Free Agent
7 of 10
Talent Outlook
It's been a rough couple of years for Matt Wieters. He struggled in 2013, underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and was slow to get his bearings in his return in 2015. And even when one looks at his whole career, he only stands out as a league-average hitter whose two Gold Gloves probably overrate his defense.
The best hope for buyers is that Wieters can at least provide some power while playing behind the dish every day. And there are legs for such hopes to stand on. Wieters' hard contact rate in 2015 was in line with his career norm, and his time off over the last two years leaves his knees relatively well preserved for a catcher who's nearing 30. He probably can't be an elite backstop, but he can be a good one.
Durability Outlook
It obviously stands out that Wieters recently missed a year recovering from Tommy John surgery, but other than that his career injury track record is fairly clean. He's had to go on the disabled list on only one other occasion, and it was with a mild hamstring strain back in 2010.
And as we mentioned above, Wieters doesn't have as many miles on his body as many catchers his age. He's not a completely safe bet to age well in a multiyear deal, but he's probably a better bet than his recent injury track record indicates.
Value Outlook
Though Wieters is coming off a rough couple of seasons, he still got a $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Orioles. He's presumably going to reject that and look to make the most of being the top catching option on the open market. He won't match the five-year contracts of Brian McCann or Russell Martin, but four years at around $15 million per season is possible.
In other words, somebody is about to pay a heavy price for a catcher whose reality doesn't quite match up with his reputation.
Total
3. Stephen Vogt, C, Trade
8 of 10
Speculation Source: Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Stephen Vogt started off 2015 like gangbusters, OPS'ing over 1.000 through early May. But then he OPS'd just under .700 over his final 111 games. Given his issues with left-handed pitching and his preference to pull the ball, that regression was likely inevitable. And to pile on a little more, Vogt is just an OK defender.
But let's not diminish Vogt too much. On the whole, he's been an above-average hitter for two seasons now. That's related to his talent for hitting right-handed pitching and, by extension, his solid mix of patience and power. He's at least a solid everyday guy and certainly an even better platoon bat.
Durability Outlook
Pressed into full-time duty for the first time in his career in 2015, Vogt caught 100 games and played in 136 overall. The only blemish was a, um, groin injury that looked worse than it hurt.
Apart from that, there's really not much to say about Vogt's injury track record. He's only been in the majors for four seasons and has been largely healthy throughout. For a 31-year-old catcher, he's in pretty good shape heading into his final four years of club control. The only thing worth worrying about is the fact that he is, alas, a catcher. Over the next four years, he's going to get beat up.
Value Outlook
Wilmoth briefly mentioned the possibility of the A's making Vogt available, but in reality the idea is coming just as much from us. The A's do have a reputation for trading veterans, after all, and dealing Vogt now would be a case of them selling high. That seems like something they would do.
If the A's dangle Vogt, they'll be dangling an older catcher, sure, but also a 2015 All-Star with four years of club control left. Such a player can command a high price. Given that Vogt may only be a platoon player disguised as an everyday backstop, he'll potentially command too high a price.
Total
2. Derek Norris, C, Trade
9 of 10
Speculation Source: Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune
Talent Outlook
Derek Norris emerged as a solid platoon bat in 2012 and 2013 before playing well enough to make the All-Star team in 2014. His 2015 season thus looks like a significant step back. His OPS fell from the mid-.700s to just .709, with a big part of the problem being a career-high number of strikeouts.
Things aren't as bad as they seem, though. Norris hit a career-high 14 home runs, and his approach didn't disintegrate as badly as his walk rate suggests. It also shouldn't be overlooked that he made strides defensively, throwing out 34 percent of would-be base stealers and rating as one of the game's top receivers. Norris is a solid regular who, at 26, is in his prime.
Durability Outlook
Norris has dealt with his share of nagging injuries in his four seasons in the big leagues, but he's only been on the disabled list once. That was back in 2013.
That and the fact that Norris is still in his physical prime bode well going forward. In his final three years of club control, he's about as good a bet to stay on the field as a catcher can be.
Value Outlook
Lin's thinking is that the Padres could move Norris for two reasons: because he's about to get expensive in arbitration, and because they have a young defensive stud who's worth playing in Austin Hedges.
These are pretty good excuses for the Padres to move Norris, but they'd be selling low after the year he just had. Given that he stands a solid chance of bouncing back from that year and having three good seasons before free agency, he's a potential steal waiting to happen.
Total
1. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Trade
10 of 10
Rumor Source: Buster Olney of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
After putting together an MVP-worthy season in 2014, Jonathan Lucroy struggled in 2015. Injuries limited him to just 103 games, and he watched his OPS fall from .837 to .717. In addition, his generally outstanding pitch framing became merely above-average pitch framing.
But don't utter the word "decline" just yet. Lucroy's bat rebounded nicely after a painfully slow start to 2015, and overall he remained a disciplined hitter with a good contact habit and good bat control. Between that and his track record as an elite receiver, it's very likely 2015 was just one bad year. With as many as two seasons of club control left, Lucroy should be viewed as a very attractive trade chip.
Durability Outlook
Staying healthy was no problem for Lucroy in 2013 and 2014, but 2015 was another story. A broken toe sidelined him for over a month at the start of the season, and a concussion ultimately cut his campaign short at the end of the year. All told, it wasn't exactly the best way for Lucroy to spend his age-29 season.
If there's a reason for optimism, however, it has to do with how Lucroy hasn't been worked as much as other catchers his age. He's only caught 643 games, which doesn't sound bad when compared to, say, the 1,046 games that Brian McCann had caught heading into his age-30 season. Lucroy may not be ironclad, but he's a solid bet to bounce back from his injury-marred 2015.
Value Outlook
In Lucroy, the Brewers have an established catcher who can be controlled for two more seasons at less than $10 million total. But they also have a guy coming off a down year, so the price to acquire Lucroy is certainly not as high as it would have been last season. It may take one top prospect to secure a deal, but maybe just the one.
If so, Lucroy could prove to be a major steal if he were to bounce back after his trying 2015 season. And as we discussed, there's a very good chance he will.
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