B/R MLB Offseason 100: The Top 15 Corner Infielders Available
After wrapping up its look at the guys on the mound with a countdown of the top relief pitchers on the market, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 now turns its attention to the bats that are available this winter.
Up first are the top 15 corner infielders who will be on the free-agent and trade markets—minus Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, who's now only available to the Minnesota Twins—each of whom was subjected to a scoring system that adds up to a total of 100 points:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. This is where we look at how guys have performed recently and consider the outlook of their skills going forward. Think of 35 out of 70 as a league-average player and 70 out of 70 as an all-world, Mike Trout-like talent.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is where we probe track records and injury histories for a projection for how guys' bodies will hold up. Think of 10 out of 20 as signaling a toss-up as to whether guys will remain durable, with 20 out of 20 indicating no concerns whatsoever. But to keep things fair, we'll only allow a ceiling of 15 points for players in line for short-term commitments.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. This is where we try to project what kind of contract or trade package it's going to take to acquire a guy and then determine if he'd be worth it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero being a megabust and 10 being a megasteal.
In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference.com, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
15. Ryan Howard, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly
Talent Outlook
Everyone knows where Ryan Howard is at these days. He was a bat-only player in his prime, and his bat has since devolved to a point where he's OPS'd just .704 over the last two seasons. Next to bad baserunning and defense, that's not nearly good enough for Howard to pass as a practical everyday option.
Still, the soon-to-be 36-year-old Howard isn't without merits. His 46 home runs over the last two seasons show he still has some raw power left. Ditto a batted-ball profile that features plenty of hard contact. And after a down year in 2014, he got back to being easily above-average against right-handers in 2015. For what it's worth, he could probably do well as a platoon designated hitter.
Durability Outlook
Howard was very durable once, but it's been a different story ever since he ruptured his Achilles back in 2011. Since then, he's played in over 150 games just once in a season.
In 2015, that admittedly had something to do with how it just wasn't worth it for the Phillies to trot Howard out to first base on a daily basis. But going forward, it's still hard to count on a guy who's going to be 36 years old and who happens to have a lot of miles on his body.
Value Outlook
As Salisbury pointed out in his preview of the Phillies' offseason, the club's efforts to trade Howard over the last year have been well-documented. And after he was finally pushed to the side at the end of 2015, his trade value is probably lower now than it's ever been.
If Philadelphia is going to move Howard, it will involve a team agreeing to take on some of the $35 million he's still owed. What makes that tricky is that Howard won't necessarily be worth the trouble even if his new team is paying just a small fraction of his remaining contract. Even if Howard only so much as becomes a solid platoon DH, well, such players just aren't that valuable.
Total
14. Steve Pearce, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Steve Pearce enjoyed a huge breakout season in 2014, posting a .930 OPS and hitting 21 home runs in only 102 games. That didn't last, as he regressed to a .711 OPS and 15 home runs in 2015. Knowing that his 2014 season looked like a huge outlier even at the time, we probably should have seen that coming.
There's also the fact that Pearce's approach isn't geared toward consistency. His emphasis on hitting the ball in the air to his pull side is more about power than anything else. The bright side, such as it is, is that his poor performance against left-handers in 2015 was very much out of character. That and his ability to play multiple positions outside of first base are two solid redeeming qualities.
Durability Outlook
Pearce's shortcomings as a hitter aren't the only reason he's had trouble with consistency in his career. He's also battled his share of injuries, including an oblique setback that sidelined him for a while in 2015.
That's the kind of track record that doesn't look good on anyone, but it looks all the more concerning on a guy who's headed for his age-33 season. Even on a short-term contract, it's not a given that Pearce will stay on the field.
Value Outlook
Pearce would have been able to find a sweet deal if he'd hit free agency last winter, but it's hard to say what he's worth now. At best, he's probably in line for a one-year pact for a modest raise over his 2015 salary of $3.7 million.
Provided that it uses Pearce mainly against left-handed pitching, a deal like that could pan out for the acquiring team.
Total
13. Hanley Ramirez, 1B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Like fellow free-agent signee Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez's first year in Boston, 2015, was a disaster. A strong offensive start faded, and he finished with just a .717 OPS. Ramirez also didn't adjust well to his move from shortstop to left field, turning in a terrible performance that has forced his move to first base.
To be fair, injuries played a part in Ramirez's demise in 2015. But so did the fact that he got overly aggressive and seemed to sell out for power, dooming himself to a .291 OBP. And though transitioning him to first base is the right idea for Boston, he's frankly never been a good defender. One feels comfortable enough saying Ramirez can keep the power coming, but everything else is a question mark.
Durability Outlook
The injury bug limited Ramirez to just 214 games in 2013 and 2014 and refused to leave him alone in 2015. Beyond hurting his ability to produce, lingering shoulder and hand injuries also limited Ramirez to just 105 games.
That makes it four seasons out of five in which Ramirez has been waylaid by injuries. That's a disturbing trend, and he's at an age, 31, where he's not likely to put his injury troubles behind him for long.
Value Outlook
It's unclear whether Ramirez is actually on the block, but Polishuk is right to think that the Red Sox will dangle him this winter, as he writes the Boston brass "will put feelers out." New boss Dave Dombrowski could save himself quite a bit of trouble by getting rid of as much of the $68.25 million the Red Sox still owe Ramirez over the next four years as he can.
Given Ramirez's total lack of trade value, odds are a swap involving Ramirez would be a Josh Hamilton-esque salary dump in which the Red Sox eat a chunk of money and get little in return. As far as prospective buyers are concerned, that means there could be little risk in rolling the dice on Ramirez.
Total
12. Juan Uribe, 3B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Juan Uribe was a disaster in 2011 and 2012, but he's since rebounded to post a solid .761 OPS over the last three seasons. This is mainly thanks to his power, which is holding steady even despite his aggressive style. And he's been a reliable third baseman over the last three years.
All this being said, Uribe is coming off a 2015 season in which he was mediocre on both offense and defense. This was bound to happen given his advanced age (36), and it raises questions as to whether he can be an everyday player. He may be better suited for a job as a backup infielder/platoon hitter.
Durability Outlook
Though Uribe has been productive in the last three seasons, he hasn't been a picture of health. After topping out at 132 games in 2013, he's played in fewer than 120 games in each of the last two seasons.
It's only minor injuries that have done in Uribe. But in dealing with a seemingly never-ending string of those, he fits the mold of an aging ballplayer with a lot of miles on his body. In what will surely be a short-term deal, his health will be no guarantee.
Value Outlook
Uribe just wrapped up a two-year, $15 million contract signed after he had re-established himself as a worthwhile regular in 2013. His situation is different now, as he only looks like a complementary piece rather than an everyday player. Factor in his age, and he should be in line for a cheap one-year deal.
Provided he could at least play in more than 100 games while continuing to provide decent pop and good defense, such a pact could pay off.
Total
11. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Hoo boy. Suffice it to say Pablo Sandoval's stock has fallen a bit from where it was a year ago, as he's gone from being a World Series hero with a solid track record to a guy who was probably the worst everyday third baseman in the league in 2015. He OPS'd just .658 and struggled mightily on defense.
The only real bright side is that 2015 is so far out of line with Sandoval's history that surely it must be an outlier. But it's just as easy to believe otherwise. His offense has been trending downward for years, and his defense has never been especially consistent. And between his insanely aggressive approach and his issues with his weight (he's listed at 5'11", 255 lbs), it's easy to doubt his ability to pull off a turnaround in either department. The remaining four years of his contract are a big question mark.
Durability Outlook
Sandoval didn't just struggle with his performance in 2015. Injuries also limited him to 126 games, making it four years out of five that he's failed to make it through a season unscathed. That's a troubling pattern.
Sure, Sandoval is still only 29. But between his assorted injuries and his constant battle with his weight, his body has been through more than many players his age. Going forward, he's no sure thing to be durable.
Value Outlook
There's nothing concrete that says Sandoval is on the block, but Polishuk is right to think that Boston's new front office will at least put feelers out. Dave Dombrowski was brought in to clean up a mess, and getting rid of the $77.4 million Sandoval is still owed would go a long way toward doing just that.
But like with Ramirez, the best the Red Sox can probably hope for is a Josh Hamilton-esque salary dump that requires them to eat a chunk of Sandoval's contract while taking on little in return. If a team out there is willing to give Sandoval a shot, it could therefore do so with relatively little risk.
Total
10. Pedro Alvarez, 1B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
One compliment we can pay Pedro Alvarez is that his bat isn't the problem. He had a .787 OPS and 27 home runs in 2015 and has averaged a .767 OPS and 28 home runs over the last four seasons. There's not much to his approach, but he makes up for that by having some of the best raw pop in the game.
But Alvarez's bat is far from perfect. With a huge strikeout habit and tendency to pull the ball, he's not built for consistency. It's also clear from looking at his career splits that he's best suited for a platoon role against right-handed pitching. And because he's been disastrous at both corners in the last two seasons, he also looks like a DH. All that is to say, basically, that his bat is only worth so much.
Durability Outlook
The injury bug hasn't bothered Alvarez that much, as he's played in at least 149 games in three of four seasons since becoming an everyday player in 2012. The one exception is a 122-game showing in 2014, in which a foot injury undid him at the end of the year.
Looking ahead, it bodes well for Alvarez's health that he's not even 29 yet with only one year to go until free agency. If his track record is any indication, he's likely to remain healthy until then.
Value Outlook
It's not official that Alvarez is on the block, but Wilmoth is right to highlight a trade as a possibility for the Pirates. Assuming they don't just non-tender Alvarez, shopping his power around is their best option.
On the bright side for prospective buyers, Alvarez doesn't have enough value to command more than spare parts in a trade. On the not-so-bright side, he's due a raise over the $5.75 million he made in arbitration last year. Ultimately, he won't be cheap, as Wilmoth projects him at $8.1 million in 2016.
Total
9. Mike Napoli, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
From an overall perspective, Mike Napoli is coming off a rough 2015 season in which he hit just .224 with a .734 OPS. But he only had one bad half, as his OPS went from .648 in the first half to .903 in the second half. That indicates that the 34-year-old slugger may not be done as an above-average hitter.
Despite his slow start, Napoli continued to draw walks at a high rate and ultimately finished the year making hard contact at more like his usual rate. Also, prospective suitors know that he could at least handle a platoon role against left-handed pitching. For a guy who's only in the market for a short-term deal, Napoli stands out as a low-cost bat worth investing in.
Durability Outlook
Unless you want to count his nasty sleep apnea surgery, Napoli has never had any major injury issues. But he's not exactly an iron man, either, as he's never played in more than 140 games in a season and is seemingly always dealing with a nagging injury of some kind.
And at 34, Napoli isn't getting any younger. Factor in how he has a degenerative hip condition, and you get a picture of a guy who's no sure thing to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
Napoli is highly unlikely to match the last contract he signed, which was for two years and $32 million. But if Mike Morse could find a two-year, $16 million deal last offseason, it wouldn't be surprising if Napoli found a similar contract this winter.
That would be a steal if Napoli returned to his status as an above-average offensive first baseman. But even if we only count on him filling a platoon role, it could still end up being a solid deal for a potential suitor.
Total
8. Justin Morneau, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Though Justin Morneau was limited to 49 games in 2015—more on that in a moment—he was successful when he did play. Following a 2014 season in which he won the NL batting title with a .319 average, Morneau was solid again with a .310 average. All told, he hit .316 with an .850 OPS in two seasons in Colorado.
Obviously, you wonder about the Coors Field effect. But Morneau's bat can theoretically play anywhere, as he's a strong, solid contact hitter who uses the whole field. He's also a steady defender at first base. He's worth a look as an everyday option and is at least a good candidate for a platoon role.
Durability Outlook
Herein lies the big red flag where Morneau is concerned. Though he managed to play in over 150 games in 2013, he's otherwise had trouble staying on the field in recent years.
His biggest problem has been concussions, which robbed him of a lot of action in 2010 and 2011 and sidelined him for a big chunk of 2015. A history like that doesn't look good on anyone, but it arguably looks worse on a guy who's heading into his age-35 season. Without a doubt, durability is Morneau's biggest question mark.
Value Outlook
Morneau is coming off a two-year, $12.5 million deal with the Rockies that he signed following a mediocre 2013 season. He showed he could be productive in the life of that contract, but he didn't get younger or more durable. As such, he's likely in the market for a one-year deal for less than $10 million.
If nothing else, that means Morneau will be an affordable option for a team in the market for a lefty-swinging first baseman.
Total
7. David Freese, 3B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
It's clear now that David Freese peaked back in 2012, when he OPS'd .839 with 20 home runs. But he's been a solid player in the last two seasons, OPS'ing .723 with 24 total home runs while playing at least passable defense at third base. When he plays—more on this in a moment—he's decent.
But decent is probably all the 32-year-old Freese can be. He's not an especially advanced hitter, as his walk rate has dropped while his strikeout rate has remained high. Also, he doesn't have especially good raw power or eye-popping defensive skills. In what's very likely to be a short-term deal, odds are he'll continue to be a good but not great player.
Durability Outlook
This is where Freese has something of a negative reputation, and deservedly so. He's played in more than 140 games just once in his career and is coming off a season in which he played in only 121 contests due, in part, to a finger injury.
With his age-33 season due up, it's hard to imagine that Freese is about to get any more durable. Even in the life of a short-term deal, he's no lock to stay healthy.
Value Outlook
The Angels declined to make Freese a $15.8 million qualifying offer, so he's hitting the open market free of ties to draft-pick compensation. He won't come close to matching the four-year, $52 million deal Chase Headley signed last winter, but three years and $30 million is possible.
With a lost draft pick, the overall cost of a deal like that would look too high for an acquiring team. But without a lost draft pick? Not as much.
Total
6. Chris Carter, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Though he hit only .199 in 2015, Chris Carter still managed to save face as roughly a league-average hitter. You can do that when you post a .307 OBP and a .427 slugging percentage, which point to Carter's two biggest strengths: his ability to draw free passes and his booming raw power.
Take away those abilities, however, and there's nothing there. Carter isn't much of a hitter, runner or fielder. Even when you add a solid bat to those three things, you don't get much of a player. In his final three seasons before free agency, Carter is best suited to be an everyday DH.
Durability Outlook
Carter ran into a spot of bother when he sprained his ankle this summer, but he's generally been healthy since he started getting regular major league playing time back in 2012. In the last three seasons, he's averaged over 140 games per year.
Looking ahead, further durability should be in the cards for the 28-year-old slugger—especially if he does indeed land in an everyday DH role. That would help save his massive 6'4", 250-pound frame from wear and tear on defense.
Value Outlook
Cafardo noted in his report that Carter's abundance of right-handed power makes him an attractive trade chip, but nobody's about to pay a high price for him. As a one-dimensional player who fits best as a DH, Carter is likely worth at most a couple of B-level prospects.
Because he is indeed a one-dimensional player, there's no guarantee Carter could be a steal even at that price. But if he keeps the power coming, he could at least live up to such a deal.
Total
5. Adam Lind, 1B, Trade
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Rumor Source: Buster Olney of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
Adam Lind's solid 2015 season, in which he OPS'd .820 with 20 home runs, feels like it came out of the blue. But it was actually typical. He's been OPS'ing over .800 and averaging over 20 homers a campaign since 2009. Without a doubt, he's one of the game's more overlooked offensive producers.
Mind you, the catch is that Lind is really only useful against right-handed pitching, which brings out the best in his batting eye, ability to make contact and ability to drive the ball. These skills may erode someday but probably not before his final year before free agency in 2016.
Durability Outlook
Lind has occasionally battled back trouble throughout his career, which doesn't bode well for a guy who is now 32 years old. In all likelihood, his back problems aren't over.
On the bright side, back trouble hasn't stopped Lind from playing in over 140 games in two of the last three seasons. He's not a sure thing to stay healthy, but he's not quite a walking injury liability, either.
Value Outlook
Olney writes that the Brewers are willing to listen to offers for everyone on their roster. As well they should be, and Lind is among those they should definitely be willing to move. After the season he just had, they could turn his walk year into a solid young player or two—not elite, but solid.
For prospective buyers, a deal like that could be worth it if Lind has another year like 2015 in him. And as long as his back cooperates and he continues to play strictly against right-handed pitching, he should.
Total
4. Carlos Santana, 1B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group
Talent Outlook
Carlos Santana is coming off a down year, as he hit just 19 home runs and OPS'd .752. But it shouldn't be overlooked that he has a rock-solid career OPS of .798. And though the Indians have never been fully committed to him at the position, he's actually been a passable first baseman.
There should be more of this in store, as the 29-year-old Santana will still be in his prime in the final two years of club control that his team-friendly contract offers. And though his approach at the plate—basically: swing seldom, swing hard—can be frustrating, he's good enough at making contact and hitting the ball hard to make it worthwhile. Factor in his non-terrible defense at first, and you get a solid player.
Durability Outlook
In addition to being reasonably consistent, Santana has been durable in recent years. He's played in more than 150 games in four of the last five seasons, dealing with only minor aches and pains along the way.
There should be more of this in store. The Indians did Santana's durability a favor by removing him from behind the plate in 2014, and we'll repeat that he's still in the prime of his career.
Value Outlook
Because the Indians need as many bats as they can get their hands on, one isn't so sure about Hoynes' claim that the club will look to trade Santana this winter. But if Cleveland does, it'll be marketing a solid power-hitting bat that can be controlled for two more years at a little over $20 million.
A player like that isn't worth a bucket of prospects, but Santana could fetch an established major leaguer who could fill a role in Cleveland. In the end, such a deal could work out for both sides.
Total
3. Evan Longoria, 3B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Evan Longoria hasn't been bad over the last two seasons, as he's OPS'd .744 with 43 home runs. That's easily above-average production. It only looks bad because of all that came before, as an average Longoria season before 2014 featured an .870 OPS and 27 home runs with excellent defense at third base.
Longoria doesn't look like that guy anymore. His power has fallen off in a significant way, and even the defensive metrics are against him now. He only turned 30 in October, but the recent turn his career has taken suggests he's already into his decline phase. For a guy who has seven years left on his contract, that doesn't bode well.
Durability Outlook
Things looked dicey when leg woes limited Longoria to just 74 games back in 2012, but he's since played in at least 160 games in each of the last three seasons. Though his skills are eroding, his body is holding up just fine.
Still, you do wonder how long that can last. Longoria has over 1,100 MLB games in his past, and those have put plenty of mileage on his 30-year-old body. Over the next seven years, it's less than a given that he'll remain a picture of good health.
Value Outlook
According to Cafardo, the Longoria trade buzz is coming from people outside of the Rays rather than the franchise itself. But it makes sense. The Rays have some retooling to do, and moving the seven years and $110.5 million remaining on his contract could go a long way toward that rebuild.
The Rays won't be able to demand a huge package of prospects if they also want to move all that money, but they would presumably need some young talent coming back to move Longoria. Because it may not even be a given that he can live up to the $110.5 million he's still owed, it's not a given that Longoria could live up a deal like that.
Total
2. Todd Frazier, 3B, Trade
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Speculation Source: Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Charlie Wilmoth of MLB Trade Rumors
Talent Outlook
Though he hasn't been able to kick his habit of falling apart in the second half, the last two seasons have seen Todd Frazier emerge as a top-notch power hitter. He's hit 64 home runs with a .479 slugging percentage. Add in 33 stolen bases and quality defense at the hot corner, and you get a pretty good player.
Inconsistency is sure to remain Frazier's biggest shortcoming, however, as he's an aggressive swinger with a whiff habit and a preference to pull the ball. But since he's still only 29, he should remain in his prime as a power-first player in the two years he has left until free agency.
Durability Outlook
Frazier may be approaching 30, but he didn't break into the league until he was 25 and didn't become a full-time player until he was 26. He's thus relatively well preserved for a guy his age and has proved to be durable by playing in at least 150 games in each of the last three seasons.
If there's cause for concern, it's that Frazier's high-energy style of play could take its toll. But he's not far enough along in his MLB career for that to be a big concern. And, again, barring an extension, any team dealing for him would only require a two-year commitment.
Value Outlook
There's nothing concrete saying Frazier is on the block, but the two links above do a good job of highlighting the scenario in Cincinnati. The Reds are rebuilding, and Frazier is arguably their most attractive trade chip. According to Wilmoth, he's worth at least one top-100 prospect in a swap.
That's not a cheap price, but Frazier could justify it if he has two more years of 30 home runs, good baserunning and good defense left in him. And he should.
Total
1. Chris Davis, 1B, Free Agent
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Talent Outlook
Chris Davis suffered through a lost season in which few things went right in 2014, but it's his 2013 and 2015 campaigns that look like truer reflections of his talent. He led the majors in home runs both seasons and racked up OPS numbers of 1.004 and .923, respectively.
Looking ahead, it's not ideal that Davis will soon be on the wrong side of 30. But the only real question regarding his long-term future is whether his stupendous power will last. Here's thinking it will. His smooth swing and 6'3", 230-pound frame allow him to generate effortless power, and that should continue to make him a threat for upward of 35 home runs on an annual basis in a long-term deal.
Durability Outlook
Though his performance-enhancing drug suspension in 2014 muddies the picture a bit, Davis has generally proved to be durable in recent seasons. That proved especially true in 2013 and 2015, in which he played in exactly 160 games apiece.
Going forward, there's naturally some worry that Davis' big, strong frame will start to crumble and render his durability a question mark, a la fellow first base sluggers Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. But if he has one advantage, it's that he didn't hit 500 at-bats in the majors until 2012 season. Compared to most sluggers his age, he's been relatively well preserved.
Value Outlook
Davis is a client of Scott Boras, who negotiated a nine-year, $214 million contract for Fielder the last time he had a slugging first baseman hit free agency. Davis won't get that many years or that much money, but even his ties to draft-pick compensation likely won't bar him from a six- or seven-year deal worth around $25 million per season.
That would be a lot of money. But knowing how easily Davis generates power and how well his body has been preserved to this point, it's not nuts to think that he could live up to such a deal.
