NFL Week 8 Picks: Vegas Odds, Props and Predictions Before Thursday Night
The 2015 NFL season is nearing its halfway point, and one thing has become quite clear: This season is shaping up to be yet another testament to the brilliance of the New England Patriots.
Scandals aside, it's truly remarkable how well the Patriots re-up and reload year in and year out under head coach Bill Belichick. They're undefeated, and the team's brightest star, Tom Brady, is putting together yet another superlative season.
According to Odd Shark, Brady is the favorite to win the NFL MVP award and has an even line. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is next at 2-1.
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Sure, the Packers, Panthers, Bengals and Broncos are also undefeated, but New England is the gold standard. Whispers of another 16-0 regular season are not at all premature. New England's remaining opponents have a combined record of 29-30. If there is a team on the remaining slate to take down the Pats, it's Denver with its punishing defense.
But they'll have to work through the next two weeks to get there. The focus in Week 8 is Miami, one of the more intriguing Thursday matchups of the season so far. Here's a look at the Week 8 schedule, odds predictions and prop bets from Thursday night's contest.
Matchup odds are courtesy of Odds Shark and updated as of Thursday, October 29 at 7 a.m. ET. Prop bets via Oddschecker.
| Time (ET) | Away | Home | Over-Under | Prediction |
| 8:30 p.m. | Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots (-8) | 50.5 | NE 31-23 MIA |
| 9:30 a.m. | Detroit Lions | Kansas CIty Chiefs (-5.5) | 45 | DET 28-22 KC |
| 1 p.m. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) | 48.5 | ATL 24-14 TB |
| 1 p.m. | San Diego Chargers | Baltimore Ravens (-3) | 50 | SD 28-20 BAL |
| 1 p.m. | Minnesota Vikings (even) | Chicago Bears (even) | 42.5 | MIN 24-20 CHI |
| 1 p.m. | Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) | Cleveland Browns | 46 | AZ 31-20 CLE |
| 1 p.m. | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans (N/A) | N/A | TEN 20-17 HOU |
| 1 p.m. | New York Giants | New Orleans Saints (-3) | 49 | NYG 24-23 NO |
| 1 p.m. | Cincinnati Bengals (even) | Pittsburgh Steelers (even) | 48.5 | CIN 28-26 PIT |
| 1 p.m. | San Francisco 49ers | St. Louis Rams (-9.5) | 39.5 | STL 31-20 SF |
| 4:05 p.m. | New York Jets (-2.5) | Oakland Raiders | 44 | NYJ 21-13 OAK |
| 4:25 p.m. | Seattle Seahawks (-7) | Dallas Cowboys | 41 | SEA 24-19 DAL |
| 8:30 p.m. | Green Bay Packers (-3) | Denver Broncos | 45.5 | DEN 27-24 GB |
| 8:30 p.m. | Indianapolis Colts | Carolina Panthers (-7.5) | 46.5 | CAR 20-17 IND |
| Rob Gronkowski | NE | 4-1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | NE | 13-2 |
| Julian Edelman | NE | 15-2 |
| Lamar Miller | MIA | 8-1 |
| Jarvis Landry | MIA | 9-1 |
| Rishard Matthews | MIA | 9-1 |
| Danny Amendola | NE | 16-1 |
| Dion Lewis | NE | 12-1 |
| Jordan Cameron | MIA | 16-1 |
| Kenny Stills | MIA | 20-1 |
| Brandon LaFell | NE | 12-1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | MIA | 40-1 |
| Tom Brady | NE | 33-1 |
| Scott Chandler | NE | 20-1 |
| DeVante Parker | MIA | 33-1 |
| Dion Sims | MIA | 33-1 |
| Greg Jennings | MIA | 33-1 |
| James White | NE | 25-1 |
| Aaron Dobson | NE | 33-1 |
| Jonas Gray | MIA | 33-1 |
| No Touchdown Scorer | --- | 125-1 |
| Miami D/ST | MIA | 20-1 |
| New England D/ST | NE | 16-1 |
New England Faces Tough Test in Resurgent Miami Squad
There's no questioning the Patriots' status as one of the leagues top teams, but what are football fans to make of Miami?
It's a team that sleepwalked to a 1-3 start before firing coach Joe Philbin and replacing him with the fiery Dan Campbell, a tight ends coach who, according to the Palm Beach Post, immediately dialed up the intensity in practice in an effort to bring some passion and fire out of his squad.
The culture change has paid off so far. Miami crushed Tennessee 38-10 in Week 6 and jumped out to a 41-0 halftime lead over Houston the following week before hitting cruise control in the second half en route to a 44-26 victory.
Those two dominant performances make Miami a very dangerous team, especially for a Patriots squad on a short week coming off a tough 30-23 rivalry win over the New York Jets.
Ryan Tannehill threw four touchdowns against the Texans, spreading the ball around to Jarvis Landry, Rishard Matthews and others. Running back Lamar Miller has really taken off in the past two weeks, rushing for 113 yards against Tennessee and then 175 yards in the first half against Houston. Armando Salguero of the Miami Herald believes Miami has the advantage while running the football:
"Assuming the Dolphins want to continue having success running the football and keeping a balance on offense, they have a good opportunity here because the Patriots’ run defense is mediocre at best. Although, they are disciplined, they aren’t overwhelming up front. The defensive line, particularly without Jabaal Sheard, whose status for the game is uncertain? Well, the linebackers are very good. Teams are averaging 4.5 yards per carry against New England, ranking the Pats 24th in the NFL in yards per carry. The Dolphins are getting strong, aggressive run blocking from every member of the offensive line, and Miller is running as if 'his hair is on fire,' according to interim coach Dan Campbell.
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Assuming Tannehill keeps the mistakes to a minimum and Miller carves up the Pats, it's still going to be tough competing with New England's offense. Brady can throw to all-world tight end Rob Gronkowski, small and shifty wideouts in Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis out of the backfield and now even Brandon LaFell, who still has Brady's trust despite catching just two passes on eight targets against the Jets in his 2015 debut, according to the Boston Herald.
Miami's defense has been rather punishing in the past two weeks, but Tennessee's and Houston's respective offenses are a far cry from New England's attack. Only one team, Dallas, has been able to get significant pressure on Brady. Miami has just 11 sacks on the season, and Ndamukong Suh only just got his first sacks this term, twice taking down the Texans' Brian Hoyer.
Not only that, but the Dolphins front has to contend with LeGarrette Blount's hard-charging runs. The Jets managed to shut down New England's rushing attack last time out, but Blount should be able to bounce back against a weaker defense. In any case, New England still scored 30 points with a one-dimensional attack.
If what we've seen in the past two weeks is the real Miami football team, the rest of the league has plenty to worry about. Not so much the Patriots, who should win this game.
Minnesota-Chicago and Cincinnati-Pittsburgh Considered Even by the Oddsmakers
Oddsmakers apparently aren't so quick to call the undefeated Bengals favorites in Week 8, not with opponent Pittsburgh playing at home and star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger potentially available for Sunday's game. NFL Network's Albert Breer noted the Steelers were set to give Roethlisberger his usual first-team reps, even though the QB himself was cautious in his talks with the media.
"We’re going to go out there and give it a go today and see where it goes from there,” he said on Wednesday, relayed by Teresa Varley of the team's official site. “We have to take it one day at a time. That’s why I’m not getting my hopes up about Sunday. I’m going to get my hopes up for today and go out and see how it goes today."
If Roethlisberger suits up, he gives Pittsburgh more than a fighting chance against the Bengals. Big Ben has missed four games already, ceding the starting QB role to Michael Vick and then Landry Jones. Both quarterbacks have been mediocre, and the Steelers have gone 2-2 in that time.
Wide receiver Antonio Brown's production took a notable dip without Roethlisberger. After snagging 29 catches in his first three games, Brown managed just 11 in his next three before getting back on track with a six-catch, 124-yard performance against Kansas City in Week 7. Martavis Bryant has added a big-play dynamic to the offense since his return from injury, and running back Le'Veon Bell is always dangerous.
Roethlisberger is the straw that stirs the drink in Pittsburgh. The even betting line only makes sense if he's set to play. It's difficult to imagine Jones or even Vick beating Andy Dalton—sporting a league-leading 84.2 total QBR, per ESPN—and his talented offense.
As for Minnesota at Chicago, well, a potentially low-scoring game makes this a tough contest to call. Teddy Bridgewater is essentially treading water in his sophomore season at quarterback. He's thrown just five touchdowns against four interceptions so far, although things are looking up.
Rookie wideout Stefon Diggs provided him with a strong weapon as soon as he got healthy. Diggs has caught 19 passes for 324 yards and one touchdown in three games. There's also the steady presence of Adrian Peterson in the backfield. The veteran runner has 530 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per carry, and should have room to run against a Bears team that is allowing 124.8 yards per game.
For Chicago, it's all about preserving Jay Cutler in the face of the Vikings' talented defense, per CBS Chicago's Jeff Joniak:
"Protecting Jay Cutler is one of the big keys against the Vikings. Minnesota is tied for the third-most knockdowns, with 42 in six games. The New York Jets and Denver are first and second on that list. The Vikings like to blitz and did repeatedly in battering Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford last week. Overall, the Vikings have 10 sacks in blitz passing situations, one of only five teams with double-digit sacks on the blitz.
Former UCLA linebackers Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr have been excellent and will crash the A-gap on either side of Bears center Hroniss Grasu, hoping to cause blocking assignment confusion.
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Minnesota's defense has been one of the stingiest in the league this season. The Vikings have allowed just 17 points per game—tied for second with Denver—and a measly 338.8 yards per game (seventh-best overall). The Bears offense has been about as sluggish as Minnesota's this year, but they have reason to hope they can put up an adequate point total against Minnesota.
Alshon Jeffery is healthy and makes the team much more dangerous, as evidenced by his eight catches, 147 yards and touchdown against Detroit in Week 6. Matt Forte continues to impress as one of the league's top every-down backs. They've also had two weeks to prepare for this matchup. The rest and rejuvenation should allow them to score into the 20s, but Minnesota will ultimately prevail by getting pressure and forcing a couple of key turnovers.
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