Daily Fantasy Football October 27: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

As the season progresses, it becomes increasingly harder to catch daily fantasy football players completely off-guard.

Sure, a few surprises will always flummox the week's projections. Nobody in their right mind would have slotted Orleans Darkwa, Nate Washington or Clive Walford into a Week 7 lineups. Weird things will keep happening until the offseason.

Yet astute players can pounce on formulating patterns. Certain players with sustained hot streaks are proving they're more than a flash in the pan. Others are showing their true colors with erratic results, giving DraftKings contestants no confidence to use them with regularity.

With seven weeks in the books, let's look at both ends of the spectrum.

Stock Up

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots ($8,300)

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Tom Brady is matchup-proof. Against the New York Jets, who boasted the NFL's top-ranked passing defense entering Week 7's AFC East showdown, the New England Patriots passer didn't flinch. Instead, he recorded 355 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and another rushing score for good measure.

Against elite opposition, Brady churned out his best fantasy tally of a nearly perfect season. His 68.9 completion percentage matches an accuracy mark attained during 2007's undefeated campaign, and he's on pace for 5,477 yards, 41 passing touchdowns and two interceptions.

He did it all on Sunday without a run game. ESPN's Field Yates noted a wacky stat from New England's 30-23 victory:

The star quarterback has dominated the pack with rousing consistency, registering at least 25 DraftKings points every game. No other passer averaged over 25.0 fantasy points per contest. In cash contests, there's value in building around a trustworthy stud whose floor matches a solid player's ceiling.

That stability is going to cost you. Brady is appraised at $8,300 for Thursday night's tilt with the Miami Dolphins, who rank No. 14 in passing defense. No quarterback costs more, and it's not even close. Aaron Rodgers is No. 2 on the ledger at $7,500, but playing him on the road against the Denver Broncos is inadvisable. 

He won't provide the most bang for a gamer's buck, but Brady is the closest player possible to a sure thing. (Now cue a three-interception dud.)

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,500)

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The bell-cow running back is an endangered species, but a rare workhorse rusher inhabits Tampa Bay. 

Doug Martin has climbed up the league's rushing leaderboard, ascending to No. 2 behind Devonta Freeman with 541 yards. Only four rushers have received more handoffs than the Buccaneers back's 18.2 carries per contest:

Rank	Player	CAR/GM
1	Matt Forte	21.0
2	Le'Veon Bell	20.6
3	Adrian Peterson	20.0
4	Devonta Freeman	18.7
5	Doug Martin	18.2

Along with exceeding 100 rushing yards in each of his last three games, Martin has evenly spread out 107 receiving yards. His 91.2 DraftKings points over the torrid stretch narrowly trails Freeman's 92.3.

Don't be shocked when he delivers a fourth straight monster outing. The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the second-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, surrendering 129.6 rushing yards per game and 11 scores on the ground.

At $5,500, he's cheaper than a dozen other rushers, including Eddie Lacy. Use him heavily in cash contests, but don't expect to be the only one riding the Martin minivan.

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans ($4,100)

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

Delanie Walker isn't an exciting, high-upside choice, and daily fantasy is all about locating the most high-upside players capable of multiplying a player's bankroll. He hasn't produced the sizzling breakout game usually necessary to net inclusion in this section.

He is, however, a discounted tight end providing consistent results at a chaotically volatile position. After snagging seven catches for 55 yards against the Atlanta Falcons, he has compiled 29 receptions through five games. Only Antonio Gates (in two games), Jordan Reed and Jason Witten have averaged more than Walker's 5.8 catches per contest at tight end.

On a per-game basis, Walker is mimicking Witten's 2015 output. Still, Witten's past prowess has the veteran priced $1,100 higher this weekend:

Player	TAR	REC	REC YD	TD	DK PT
Walker	7.6	5.8	59.8	0.2 (1)	13.6
Witten	7.5	6.0	57.3	0.33 (2)	13.0

Walker's ceiling isn't high enough to use in tournaments, but he's a safe cash play at an affordable cost. 

Stock Down

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers ($6,800)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Perhaps even Cam Newton realized the lunacy of getting touted as an actual MVP candidate. The Carolina Panthers quarterback quickly fixed that nonsense by throwing three picks in Sunday night's victory over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Kudos to Newton for keeping the club afloat with limited wide receivers, but Ryan Kalil, Josh Norman, Luke Keuchly and Kawann Short have delivered immense value despite not throwing footballs. Fantasy players especially scoffed at the MVP buzz given his unimpressive passing numbers:

GP	PASS YD	CMP %	YPA	TD	INT	RUSH YD	TD
6	1,275	55.8	7.04	9	7	254	4

Due to his four rushing scores, Newton has still produced a strong 21.8 DraftKings points per contest. But his two biggest games came against the Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints, who respectively rank Nos. 29 and 31 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Newton has defied the odds simply by functioning as a top-12 fantasy signal-caller despite Carolina's horrid receiving corps. But due to his lack of surrounding playmakers at a pricey $6,800, he's a pure matchup play. This weekend, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton and Ryan Tannehill have better outlooks at lower costs. 

Melvin Gordon, RB, San Diego Chargers ($4,000)

Jim Mone/Associated Press

Trent Richardson and David Wilson had seemingly expelled any running backs from early NFL draft selection before Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon broke the trend. While one has showcased the value of a transcendent talent, the other has faltered within a diminishing role.

Gurley gave Gordon a two-game head start, and then sat out the St. Louis Rams' bye week. In three fewer games, however, the Rams rookie has already amassed 114 more yards than Gordon.

GP	RUSH	RUSH YD	YPC	REC	REC YD	TD	DK PPG
7	85	328	3.9	13	86	0	7.3

After receiving at least 14 touches in each of the San Diego Chargers' first five games, Gordon settled for seven carries for 29 yards during each of the past two weeks. With the Oakland Raiders jumping out to an early lead, Gordon took a back seat to Danny Woodhead during Week 7. This would make sense had the neophyte not sat out the entire first half. 

“I hate watching,” Gordon told the San Diego Union-Tribune's Kevin Acee. “It doesn’t sit well with me, my teammates out there … and I’m on the sideline looking helpless when I know I can help change things.”

He hasn't helped much yet, averaging 3.9 yards per carry without a single touchdown or 100-yard effort. Aside from a seven-catch outlier in Week 5, he hasn't factored into the passing game, either. As a result, his DraftKings price has tumbled throughout the season, falling all the way to $4,000 from Week 1's $5,500.

For those itching to play a San Diego running back against the Baltimore Ravens, pay an extra $500 for Woodhead, a receiver who occasionally offers a few yards on the ground.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,900)

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

After a sluggish start, Vincent Jackson woke up with 10 catches, 147 yards and a score in Week 4's clash with Carolina. Only a matter of time before the wideout with six 1,000-yard seasons over the last seven years caught fire.

Hey, where did he go? In a bizarre curtain call, he collected 14 yards in Week 5 and 13 on Sunday, both one-catch outings. The 32-year-old left Week 7's bout with a knee injury clearly ailing him. Per Buccaneers.com's Scott Smith, the team is still waiting on his prognosis:

It might behoove Jackson's fantasy stock to take a week off and heal. If he plays through pain this weekend, nobody should take a chance on a struggling, hobbled wideout manufacturing a big play against the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to wide receivers.

At $4,900, he still costs more than Stefon Diggs, Rishard Matthews and Marvin Jones. Make Jackson prove his health before inserting him into any lineups. 

All pricing and scoring data obtained via DraftKings.com. 

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