MLB Free Agents 2015-16: Finding the Best Values at Each Position
There is no shortage of star power in this year's MLB free-agent class.
David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann and Johnny Cueto front an impressive class of starting pitchers, while Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Justin Upton, Ian Desmond and Alex Gordon make up the cream of the position player crop.
However, the more intriguing side of free agency is often the under-the-radar bargain signings. Those signings don't dominate the headlines, but they can wind up being what pushes a team over the top.
A.J. Pierzynski, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson, Nori Aoki, Jeff Francoeur, Chris Young, Mark Lowe and Joe Blanton were among the notable unexpected contributors who signed for peanuts last offseason, and teams will look for similar deals in this year's free-agent class.
With that in mind, what follows is a look at the one guy from each position who could wind up being the best value this offseason, as well as a look back at the top bargain from a year ago.
Catcher: Chris Iannetta
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2015 Stats
| 92 | .188/.293/.335 | 78 | 51 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 28 | 0 | 0.7 |
Player Overview
There is no Russell Martin in this year's crop of free-agent catchers, in the sense that there is not a surefire everyday backstop a team can feel comfortable committing multiple years to in the bunch.
Even the top option on the market—three-time All-Star Matt Wieters—comes with some considerable risk, as he struggled in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
However, if there is one catcher who could prove to be a good bargain on a low-cost deal, it might be Chris Iannetta.
The 32-year-old earned $5.525 million in the final season of a three-year, $15.55 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels this past season, but he wound up losing his starting job to Carlos Perez, as he struggled mightily at the plate.
There's reason to believe he could be in for a better season next year, though.
First off, he is just a year removed from hitting .252/.373/.392 for a 123 OPS+ and posting a 2.1 WAR in 2014.
He was also the victim of some bad luck in 2015, as a .225 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) certainly contributed to his drop in batting average, and he maintained a solid 12.9 percent walk rate, according to FanGraphs.
On something like a one-year, $4 million deal, he could be well worth the investment for a team looking to upgrade behind the dish.
First Baseman: Steve Pearce
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2015 Stats
| 92 | .218/.289/.422 | 91 | 64 | 13 | 15 | 40 | 42 | 1 | -0.4 |
Player Overview
There were few bigger surprises in the league in 2014 than journeyman Steve Pearce.
After bouncing around for years and never really carving out a regular role in the big leagues, he finally caught on with the Baltimore Orioles and turned in a fantastic all-around season.
He finished the year hitting .293/.373/.556 with 26 doubles and 21 home runs and racked up a 5.9 WAR while spending time at first base and at both corner outfield spots.
It can be tough to fully buy into a breakout season from a then-31-year-old, and it was not a huge surprise to see Pearce take a significant step backward in 2015.
Despite his OPS dropping by a whopping 219 points, Pearce still showed some good pop and did it with useful defensive versatility, as he also spent time at second base for the first time in his career.
He's probably best suited in a super-utility role of sorts and as a power bat off the bench, but he is someone who is capable of stepping into an expanded role if need be, and that makes the 32-year-old more valuable than most bench pieces.
An early-season slump and a subsequent oblique injury caused Pearce to lose a good deal of playing time to a hot Jimmy Paredes, and he was just never able to get his season on track as a result.
A new year and a fresh start may not mean a return to his 2014 level of production, but Pearce is capable of more than he showed this past season.
Second Baseman: Kelly Johnson
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2015 Stats
| 111 | .265/.314/.435 | 108 | 82 | 11 | 14 | 47 | 38 | 2 | 0.3 |
Player Overview
Simply calling Kelly Johnson a second baseman these days is not the most accurate description of the 33-year-old, as he is actually one of the most versatile players in all of baseball.
This past season, he played everywhere but pitcher, catcher and center field, and he actually spent more time in left field than at any other position.
His natural spot is still second base, though, and from an offensive standpoint, that's where he is most valuable.
With 14 home runs in 2015, he now has double-digit long balls in seven of his 10 big league seasons, and his .265 average was his best mark since he batted .284 back in 2010.
However, the market for second basemen this year is deeper than normal.
Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy are all All-Star-caliber options, while Stephen Drew and Chase Utley could also warrant at least semi-regular playing time.
That depth could keep Johnson on the market longer than expected and potentially drive his price down, making him one of the better bargains at any position this winter.
He settled for a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Atlanta Braves last offseason, and even for double that price, he'd be a steal.
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Third Baseman: Juan Uribe
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2015 Stats
| 119 | .253/.320/.417 | 105 | 91 | 17 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 2 | 1.7 |
Player Overview
Third base is a perennially weak position on the free-agent market, and this season is no different, as David Freese is really the only clear-cut everyday option out there—unless Daniel Murphy decides to make a move off of second base.
One name worth keeping an eye on, though, is Juan Uribe.
At 36 years old, it's hard to entrust him with an everyday job, but he remains a productive bat and a terrific clubhouse presence.
Uribe is a career .281/.363/.461 hitter in 102 pinch-hit appearances, and he has become a more disciplined hitter in his old age with a career-best 8.6 percent walk rate in 2015.
He also remains a plus defender at the hot corner and a player who is capable of stepping into an expanded role if injuries warrant such a move.
Uribe has averaged 21 doubles and 12 home runs in 378 at-bats the past three seasons, and a similar level of production even in his age-37 season is not out of the question.
He earned $6.5 million this past season in the final year of a two-year, $15 million extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he'll likely have to settle for a pay cut and a one-year deal, which could make him a terrific bargain.
Shortstop: Asdrubal Cabrera
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2015 Stats
| 143 | .265/.315/.430 | 105 | 134 | 28 | 15 | 58 | 66 | 6 | 1.7 |
Player Overview
Even coming off of a down season, Ian Desmond is still far and away the top shortstop on the free-agent market this offseason.
In terms of value, though, Asdrubal Cabrera appears to be a far better target for teams looking to upgrade the position.
The 29-year-old signed a one-year, $7.5 million deal and wound up being one of the few consistent offensive contributors for the Tampa Bay Rays.
His 28 doubles, 58 RBI and 217 total bases each ranked third on the Rays, while his 15 home runs were good for fourth on the team and seventh among all qualified shortstops.
A below-average glove (-7 DRS, -10.4 UZR/150) hurts his value, and those metrics are about in line with where he's been throughout his career.
He should be able to find a multiyear deal this time around, given his age and offensive production.
As long as the average annual value doesn't move too far away from the $7.5 million he earned last year, he has a chance to provide some good value on the strength of his bat.
Left Fielder: Franklin Gutierrez
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2015 Stats
| 59 | .292/.354/.620 | 168 | 50 | 11 | 15 | 35 | 27 | 0 | 2.4 |
Player Overview
Franklin Gutierrez looked like a budding superstar back in 2009 when he hit .283/.339/.425 with 18 home runs and 70 RBI for a 6.6 WAR.
That breakout performance earned him a four-year, $20.5 million extension, and while his offensive numbers dropped off the following season, he remained an elite defensive center fielder with good power.
However, injuries took their toll from there, and he played just 173 games total from 2011 to 2013, before sitting out the entire 2014 season while dealing with gastrointestinal issues.
The Seattle Mariners brought him back on a minor league deal last offseason, and after putting up good numbers in 48 games for Triple-A Tacoma, he returned to the majors on June 24.
After playing sporadically in July, he settled into a semi-regular role at the beginning of August and proceeded to hit .306/.379/.685 with 12 home runs in 111 at-bats over the final two months of the year.
When all was said and done, his .974 OPS was tied for fifth among players with at least 150 at-bats.
Despite that strong performance, teams will hesitate to give the 32-year-old anything more than a one-year deal given his injury history.
The Mariners have stuck by him through his struggles to stay on the field, so there's a good chance he returns the favor and re-signs. Wherever he winds up, though, he has a good chance of being a bargain once again.
Center Fielder: Austin Jackson
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2015 Stats
| 136 | .267/.311/.385 | 95 | 131 | 25 | 9 | 48 | 56 | 17 | 1.6 |
Player Overview
Dexter Fowler and Denard Span should both get multiyear deals as the top two center field options and leadoff hitters on the market this offseason.
Colby Rasmus is also an option at the position, as he spent the bulk of 2015 playing corner outfield for the Houston Astros but had been almost exclusively a center fielder in the years prior.
As far as a bargain option at the position is concerned, though, Austin Jackson may be one of the most intriguing bounce-back candidates on the market.
The 28-year-old put up terrific numbers over his first four seasons in the league with the Detroit Tigers, hitting .278/.344/.416 and averaging 29 doubles, 10 triples and 10 home runs per year.
His 18.9 WAR during that span ranked fifth among all outfielders, and he looked like a key piece of the present and future for the Tigers.
He has struggled the past two seasons, though, hitting .261/.310/.364 and posting a 3.3 WAR while spending time with the Tigers, Mariners and Cubs.
At the very least, Jackson is a solid defensive center fielder capable of providing a decent mix of power and speed.
However, his age and track record make him a nice buy-low candidate, and he could wind up being this offseason's version of Nori Aoki in terms of outfield value.
Right Fielder: Will Venable
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2015 Stats
| 135 | .244/.320/.350 | 88 | 85 | 13 | 6 | 33 | 40 | 16 | 0.3 |
Player Overview
After five productive seasons as a semi-regular player, Will Venable enjoyed a breakout season in 2013 when he posted a .796 OPS with 22 doubles, 22 home runs and 22 stolen bases on his way to a 3.2 WAR.
That earned him a two-year, $8.5 million extension, but he wound up traded to the Texas Rangers in an August waiver deal after being pushed out of the everyday outfield picture with the San Diego Padres.
The 32-year-old did not not have a good season by any means in 2015, but he should still get some bites this offseason as a low-cost outfielder with starter potential and experience.
Getting away from playing regularly at Petco Park could be a nice start toward turning things around:
- Petco Park: 1,314 AB, .233/.301/.386, 40 HR, 141 RBI
- Elsewhere: 1,504 AB, .266/.330/.424, 41 HR, 166 RBI
He has never made more than $4.25 million in a season—his salary each of the past two years—and he may be willing to agree to something like a one-year, $3 million deal this winter.
As a left-handed bat and a solid defender at all three outfield positions, he could generate more interest than expected, but his price still won't climb high enough to keep him from being a potential bargain.
Starting Pitcher: Mat Latos
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2015 Stats
| 24/21 | 4-10 | 4.95 | 3.72 | 1.307 | 32 | 100 | 116.1 | -0.5 |
Player Overview
Just how valuable was a 23-year-old Mat Latos when the San Diego Padres put him on the trade block prior to the 2012 season?
Valuable enough that the Cincinnati Reds gave up the following to acquire him:
- SP Edinson Volquez: 20 G, 5-7, 5.71 ERA in '11, but still 27 with upside
- 1B Yonder Alonso: No. 3 CIN prospect, No. 33 MLB prospect
- C Yasmani Grandal: No. 4 CIN prospect, No. 53 MLB prospect
- RP Brad Boxberger: No. 10 CIN prospect
The burly right-hander was 33-16 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.179 WHIP from 2012 to 2014, as he pitched like a legitimate front-line starter more times than not.
However, recovery from knee surgery and a bone bruise on his pitching elbow limited him to just 16 starts in 2014, and he never seemed quite right at the beginning of his time with the Miami Marlins this past year.
By season's end, he had spent time with three different teams and went just 4-10 with a 4.95 ERA that ranked eighth-worst among pitchers with at least 100 innings of work.
There is reason to believe he could be the bounce-back pitcher of 2016, though.
For one, his fastball velocity was back to its pre-injury level from the beginning of June on, as Brooks Baseball showed.
His peripheral numbers also paint a significantly better picture than his surface numbers, as a 3.72 fielding independent pitching (FIP) is a good indication of some positive regression to come, and his strand rate (63.8 percent) and BABIP (.307) were both well above his career marks, per FanGraphs.
Latos will likely settle for a one-year deal in an effort to rebuild some value before another run at free agency, and at 27 years old, there is no reason to think he can't bounce back with a full offseason of rest to put a rough 2015 behind him.
Relief Pitcher: Shawn Kelley
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2015 Stats
| 53 | 2-2 | 7 | 2.45 | 1.091 | 15 | 63 | 51.1 | 0.8 |
Player Overview
Predicting who will emerge from the crop of free-agent relievers to provide good value is incredibly difficult, for the simple reason that reliever performance is so tough to peg on a year-in and year-out basis.
That said, one name to keep an eye on this winter is right-hander Shawn Kelley.
Kelley spent the 2013 and 2014 seasons pitching for the New York Yankees, and while his 4.46 ERA over 116 appearances didn't jump off the page, his peripheral numbers did.
A 3.33 FIP and a strong 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings profiled him as a potential impact late-inning arm, and that's exactly what the San Diego Padres were hoping to get when they traded for him last offseason.
The move to the National League and pitcher-friendly Petco Park resulted in career bests in ERA (2.45), WHIP (1.091) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.20), and there is reason to believe he can post similar numbers regardless of where he winds up in 2016.
The 31-year-old took a step forward due in large part to an improved slider, as opponents hit just .175 with a .097 ISO against the pitch, according to Brooks Baseball.
As good as his 2015 performance was, Kelley has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, and he missed time last year with a calf strain and a forearm strain, so injury concerns could keep him to a one-year deal.
Provided he stays healthy, he could be a steal as an impact late-inning bullpen arm.
All standard stats and WAR totals courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, while defensive metrics like DRS and UZR/150 come via FanGraphs.
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