NFL Predictions Week 7: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

Byes rob Week 7 of several star squads, yanking three of the NFL's five remaining undefeated teams out of action. The two showing up for work on Sunday each face dangerous opponents looking to derail perfection.

While the New England Patriots showed a smidgen of vulnerability on Sunday night, they improved to 5-0 with a 34-27 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Before celebrating their seventh straight AFC East title, they must fend off the massively improved New York Jets, who have already matched last year's win total at 4-1.

After winning the NFC South by default last season, the Carolina Panthers now face the conference's toughest division competition with the Atlanta Falcons sitting at 5-1. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles are in a golden position to win an ugly NFC East despite an underwhelming 3-3 start. A road upset would make them the lowly division's clear favorite.

Can either underdog knock down an undefeated adversary at its house? After breaking down Week 7's picks and odds, via Odds Shark as of Wednesday morning, let's examine both upset bids.

Away	Home	Line	Projection
Seattle Seahawks	San Francisco 49ers	SEA -6.5	23-13 SEA
Buffalo Bills	Jacksonville Jaguars (London)	BUF -7	27-20 BUF
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins	WAS -3	20-14 WAS
Atlanta Falcons	Tennessee Titans	ATL -4	30-17 ATL
New Orleans Saints	Indianapolis Colts	IND -4.5	28-27 IND
Minnesota Vikings	Detroit Lions	MIN -2.5	20-17 MIN
Pittsburgh Steelers	Kansas City Chiefs	PIT -2	19-16 PIT
Cleveland Browns	St. Louis Rams	STL -7	27-26 CLE
Houston Texans	Miami Dolphins	MIA -4	30-23 MIA
New York Jets	New England Patriots	NE -10	27-23 NE
Oakland Raiders	San Diego Chargers	SD -4	34-28 SD
Dallas Cowboys	New York Giants	NYG -3	24-13 NYG
Philadelphia Eagles	Carolina Panthers	CAR -3	24-20 PHI
Baltimore Ravens	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -9	31-28 ARI

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Gary Hershorn/Associated Press

It's time to admit it: The Jets are good. A laughingstock ridiculed for its offensive futility has now scored 23.8 points per game this season. Colliding against their division tormentors at Foxborough, now is the Jets' chance to prove they're more than a feel-good story.

Up until the final whistle, everyone will talk about Gang Green's opportunity to make a significant statement by stopping the Pats. Veteran guard Willie Colon, however, isn't concerned about fueling a compelling narrative, but simply netting another victory.

"We're not trying to catch up on anybody," Colon said Monday, per the Associated Press' Dennis Waszak Jr. "We're not trying to make any statements. We just want to win, and everything will take care of itself."

A win would make one important statement, propelling the Jets to an AFC East lead by virtue of a tiebreaker. This is not a probable outcome. They have yet to face a team above .500 this season. Shutting down the Colts marked their biggest accomplishment, but it looks less monumental in hindsight.

Besting Washington doesn't prepare New York for combating Tom Brady and Co. Yet if there's a team capable of catching the Patriots off guard, it's the Jets.

It'll take an elite defense to contain Brady's No. 2-ranked offense. Check. The Jets rank first with 5.4 yards per pass attempt and a 52.4 opposing completion percentage. They have allowed six passing touchdowns while picking off eight passes. And hey, they've yielded a league-low 15.0 points per contest. 

The Patriots have surrendered 4.8 yards per run, so a powerful rushing attack needs to punch them in the mouth. Hello there, Chris Ivory. He's averaging an NFL-high 115.0 rushing yards per game while gaining 5.5 yards per run. Brandon Marshall might not have been wrong when he called his teammate "the best running back in the league right now," per ESPN.com's Rich Cimini. 

All that aside, these are the Patriots. They've won all five games by an average margin of 16 points a pop. Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman are matchup nightmares for anyone, including Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. 

Picking Ryan Fitzpatrick to dispatch the Patriots on the road is too extreme, but they will duck below an outlandish 10-point spread in a close call.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jets 23

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers

Michael Perez/Associated Press

The Eagles are 3-3, and their quarterback expected to take over the world instead stinks. Sam Bradford has thrown nine interceptions this season with an underwhelming 6.85 yards per pass attempt. ESPN's total quarterback rating places him last among all starting quarterbacks.

The Eagles have also won their last two games by a combined 42 points, fixing their ground game to accrue 341 rushing yards. Lost underneath their offensive struggles, a formerly horrendous defense has held its own. Last year's No. 28 unit now ranks No. 15 despite facing Matt Ryan, Tony Romo, Drew Brees and Eli Manning.

Let's take a deep breath before burning head coach Chip Kelly at the stake. ESPN's Football Power Index ranks the Eagles No. 3 behind the Patriots and Arizona Cardinals. Per ESPN Stats & Info, they enhanced their probability of claiming the division after beating the New York Giants on Monday night:

A year after lucking into a dubious playoff bid, the Panthers are looking to earn their ticket this year. After riding a cupcake schedule to a 4-0 start, they beat the Seattle Seahawks, 27-23, on the road last weekend. Their first five opponents still sport a combined 9-20 record, but a win at Seattle remains a noteworthy feat.

Quarterback Cam Newton is gaining MVP traction for overcoming a decrepit batch of wideouts, but Carolina ranks No. 28 in total offense. Its No. 7 defense, which has feasted on meager prey, deserves most of the credit. A win's a win in the NFL, but facing Ryan Mallett, Luke McCown and Jameis Winston helps.

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

So Bradford isn't much of an improvement under center, but the Eagles have jumped to No. 13 in total offense with DeMarco Murray moving the ball past the line of scrimmage. 

Philadelphia leads the NFC with 16 takeaways while limiting opponents to 3.5 yards per carry. It'll stymie Jonathan Stewart and force Newton to make plays with nobody around him while avoiding any mistakes. There's too little margin of error for Carolina to stay undefeated much longer.

Prediction: Eagles 24, Panthers 20