NFL Predictions Week 7: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

It's Week 7 in the NFL, and our collective preseason illusions have faded. Some teams have silenced their critics, while others have deflated their dreams. All that's left is the real: The seven clubs with one or no losses are undeniable contenders, and the five teams with just one win are all but eliminated.

If there's any hope for the teams playing losing football, or any danger for the ones who have piled up four or five wins, it starts now. This five-week stretch between late October and Thanksgiving will determine who's in position for the stretch run and who'll be spending December reading NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller's work and watching terrible college bowl games.

Our panel of writers, of whom Miller is an august member, did as they do every week: Predict, project and prognosticate what will happen during this weekend's slate of games.

We mulled the biggest upset, meted out our flop-of-the-week label and made known our sleepers of the week at every offensive skill position. Over/unders, higher totals, most turnovers and more—we met and mooted all of the many permutations of this NFL game week.

So get ready to ditch your predilections and have your paradigms shattered; we have decided by plurality what's really real in Week 7!

Biggest Upset

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, two votes each): New York Jets (+9.5) over New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers (+4) over Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over Washington. Odds via Odds Shark.

Yes, we went there: National NFL Analysts Ty Schalter and Gary Davenport picked the Jets to go into Gillette Stadium and upset the hated (and undefeated) New England Patriots.

As Schalter wrote for the NFL Expert Consensus Picks, the Jets are perfectly tooled to disrupt what's been working so well for New England:

"

I know, #PatsNation, I'm a biased loser hater. But the fact is this Patriots team isn't going 16-0, and these Jets are a very tough matchup for an offense relying entirely on the short passing game.

The floundering Colts gave the Pats almost all they could handle, while the Jets are as hot as they've been in ages—plus, of course, it's the Jets, and the only more compelling storyline than Deflategate Payback is Benedict Revis.

"

Two each of our other six writers agreed on two other upsets.

In the bigger of the two, the San Francisco 49ers have a chance to renew one of the most heated, physical rivalries in football—even if, at 2-4, both of these teams aren't among the NFL's best.

Two more of our writers agreed that Washington's directionless team could lose to anyone right now...even Tampa Bay.

Others receiving votes: Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles (+3) over Carolina Panthers.

Biggest Blowout

Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

Expert Consensus Pick: Atlanta Falcons over Tennessee Titans—five votes.

For all the woeful talk about the Falcons after their unbeaten bubble was emphatically burst Thursday night, at 5-1 they're way ahead of the rest of the NFC. In fact, they're one of just five NFC teams playing winning football and are looking up at only the Panthers and Packers.

Julio Jones and the Falcons' first-team offense ran wild over the Titans in one of the most entertaining preseason matchups of the year. Tennessee caught up when the backups came in, but this is the regular season; the backups won't be coming in.

In the regular season, the Titans pass defense has allowed fewer passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL; however, Tennessee has also faced the fewest attempts, because its miserable run defense is fifth worst in the league.

Whether it's Jones and the passing offense or Devonta Freeman and the run game, the Titans won't be able to stop the Falcons from putting up boffo numbers.

Others receiving votes: New England Patriots over New York Jets—two votes, San Diego Chargers over Oakland Raiders.

Higher Total: J.J. Watt Sacks or Cameron Wake Sacks?

Dave Einsel/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: J.J. Watt—seven votes.

National NFL Analyst, and Head J.J. Watt Enthusiasm Enforcer, Gary Davenport took umbrage at the comparison between Watt and Wake even being made:

"

Oh now you gone done and did-ed it. You poked the bear. Angered the beast. Dared to compare mortal pass-rushers to Wattzilla. Yes, Cameron Wake had four sacks last week. No, Watt didn't manage a single one last week against the lowly Jaguars. But Watt was in the Jacksonville backfield all day long, and he's overdue for a big game. Poor Ryan Tannehill. He used to have a spleen.

"

Six of our writers rushed in to back Watt (and Davenport), as our panel emphatically rejected the idea that Wake could outplay Watt head-to-head.

National NFL Analyst Ty Schalter meekly noted, however, that Wake's Week 5 outburst means he has the same number of sacks on the year as Watt—in fewer games.

Others receiving votes: Cameron Wake.

Biggest Mismatch

Jeff Haynes/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Todd Gurley vs. Cleveland Browns run defense—five votes.

The Browns have allowed an astonishing 149.8 rushing yards per game this season. Not only is that the worst overall total, but their per-carry average allowed of 5.0 yards is second-worst. They aren't just facing teams who run a lot; they're making every back they see look like Jim Brown.

What happens when rookie sensation Todd Gurley—who is averaging a stonking 5.7 yards per carry—gets to tee off on the league's softest run defense?

You get the week's biggest mismatch, say five of our NFL writers.

Other nominations included two votes for aging-like-a-fine-wine quarterback Philip Rivers against the Raiders pass defense, and the Bills' talented pass rush and coverage units against struggling Jaguars sophomore quarterback Blake Bortles.

Others receiving votes: Philip Rivers vs. Raiders pass defense—two votes, Bills pass defense vs. Blake Bortles.

Sleeper QB Performance

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Matt Cassel—three votes.

He's a 10-year veteran Pro Bowl quarterback at the helm of one of the league's most talented offenses, so why is Matt Cassel a "sleeper"?

Well, since Cassel sneaked on to the back of the AFC's 2010 All-Star roster, he's completed just 59.1 percent of his passes, thrown 30 touchdowns against 34 interceptions and posted a passer rating of 74.0. Furthermore, a lot of the talent on that Cowboys roster is either injured or underperforming.

However, the Cowboys are set to play the flailing New York Giants, and Cassel is taking over the Cowboys with a full bye week to prepare. Three of our writers like the journeyman to step in and put up points against the 30th-ranked passing yardage defense in the NFL.

"Listen," said NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, "I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I'm brimming with confidence in regard to Matt Cassel, who is presently playing for his 37th NFL team (quite the feat in a 32-team league). But as bad as Cassel may be, the Giants' pass defense is even worse, allowing nearly 300 yards per game."

Two other writers hopped on rookie Jameis Winston's bandwagon this week, with a favorable matchup against a rudderless Washington unit.

Others receiving votes: Jameis Winston—two votes, Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Landry Jones.

More Passing Yards: Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson?

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Russell Wilson—five votes.

The math here is pretty simple: Wilson is averaging 238.8 yards per game; Kaepernick is at 221.5.

The 49ers have the NFL's leakiest pass defense, allowing an average of 306.2 yards per game. The Seahawks are much stingier, allowing just 219.9.

However, National NFL Lead Writer—and one-time math teacher—Mike Tanier went algebraic all over our panel's grade-school arithmetic:

"

You know, we do these "who will have more passing yards" comparisons every week, and I am often cutting against the grain. Here is why: The losing quarterback usually throws for more passing yards!

The question is not "better efficiency rating" or "better QBR" or "most likely to win Player of the Week." If I think the Jaguars are going to get blown out, I assume that Blake Bortles will throw for 120 fourth-quarter yards while the opposing quarterback drinks Gatorade.

The only exceptions are the Patriots, who I assume will try to score 31 additional fourth-quarter points to somehow prove their innocence. So, yeah, Kaepernick over Wilson.

"

Others receiving votes: Colin Kaepernick—three votes.

More Turnovers: Blake Bortles or Tyrod Taylor?

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Blake Bortles—four votes.

Look, Blake Bortles isn't having the best year, OK? He's ranked 21st in NFL passer efficiency rating at 83.5. He's averaging an underwhelming 5.76 adjusted net yards per attempt. He's hovering somewhere between 20th and 25th in the rankings of every major passing rate stat, including interception rate (2.9 percent).

That he's ranked a stunning sixth in total passing yards right now is more a function of his number of attempts (itself a symptom of his non-existent running game) than his ability. He's had the third-most pass attempts and gained a seventh-worst average of 6.7 yards with them.

All this is a roundabout way of pointing out that, while Bortles hasn't played well, he hasn't quite been a turnover machine such as Jameis Winston or, ahem, Andrew Luck. In fact, Bortles' 2.9 percent interception rate is tied with Tyrod Taylor so far.

So if Bortles and Taylor throw picks at the exact same rate, how do we break the tie? Well, the Bills defense ranks eighth in the league with seven picks so far, while the Jags have an NFL-worst one interception.

Seems like Bortles would run away with this one, but three of our writers still expect Taylor (or if he plays, EJ Manuel) to cough it up more.

National NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier, ever the scamp, picked Kirk Cousins.

Others receiving votes: Tyrod Taylor/EJ Manuel—three votes, Kirk Cousins.

Sleeper RB Performance

Weston Kenney/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Frank Gore—three votes.

Once again, our panel of writers has nominated a wide and varied crew of sleeper tailbacks. The consensus winner this week is Frank Gore; yes, he's a five-time Pro Bowler and may end up in the Hall of Fame, but through six weeks (and some high-profile problems with the Colts passing offense), he's quietly compiled a respectable 403 rushing yards.

In fact, Gore's ranked 10th in the league in that stat, despite being tied for 16th in average yards per carry. Maybe it's because preseason expectations were so high, or quarterback Andrew Luck's struggles so attention-getting, that we haven't noticed Gore has been pretty good.

Going up against the league's second-most generous run defense won't hurt his totals this week, either.

Two votes went to Matt Jones, the third-round rookie, who, at times, has been the only bright spot on Washington's offense.

Others receiving votes: Matt Jones—two votes, Buck Allen, Jerick McKinnon, Doug Martin.

Sleeper WR Performance

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Leonard Hankerson—three votes.

"If you are wondering," NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier wrote, "Albert Wilson is the Chiefs' top wide receiver if Jeremy Maclin is injured. You probably know that. I am just writing this to fill Andy Reid in."

Tanier was the only one of our writers to pick Wilson; in fact, Tanier was one of five to nominate a player nobody else jumped in on. But the other three guys all agreed on Falcons No. 2 wideout Leonard Hankerson.

We've already discussed the tasty matchup the Falcons have against the pillow-soft Titans defense this week. If superstar No. 1 wideout Julio Jones doesn't go absolutely gaga against them (or maybe even if he does), look for Hankerson to blow up.

National NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon hasn't forgotten about Roddy White, either, even if the Falcons have.

Others receiving votes: Anquan Boldin, Michael Floyd, Roddy White, Terrance Williams, Albert Wilson.

Sleeper TE Performance

Jerome Davis/Getty Images

Expert Consensus Pick: Charles Clay—five votes.

Sleeper TE Performance might be the hardest category our writers vote on each week. In today's fantasy-obsessed world, even top tight ends are passed over while second- and third-string wideouts are coveted.

Clay leads, by far, all Buffalo pass-catchers in targets, receptions and yards. He's as clear-cut of a No. 1 option as it gets. Yet, how many tight ends would the average football fan need to think up before they thought of Clay?

Going up against what Pro Football Focus has graded as the worst overall team coverage unit so far this season doesn't just mean Clay is a good fantasy sleeper for this week—it means he could potentially dominate the game.

Others receiving votes: Ladarius Green—two votes, Jacob Tamme.

Best Defensive Performance

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: J.J. Watt—three votes.

Sure, J.J. Watt is having a quieter statistical year this season; he's merely on pace to match his 10.5-sack production of 2013 rather than his 20-plus seasons of 2012 and 2014. 

Still, he's absolutely one of the league's best, most talented defenders, and whether he brings down Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill one, zero or five times could depend on factors that have nothing to do with how well he plays. That's the nature of the pass-rush game.

However, the chances that he'll beat Pro Football Focus' fifth-worst pass-blocking offensive line for a few highlight plays are high.

Others receiving votes: Lavonte David, Greg Hardy, Justin Houston, Aaron Lynch, Darrelle Revis.

Over/Under: 600 Passing Yards for Drew Brees and Andrew Luck?

Sam Riche/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Over—seven votes.

No-brainer, say seven of our NFL writers. The Colts and Saints defenses are allowing a combined average of 560.7 yards per game, and Luck and Brees are throwing for a combined average of 589.5.

A little more here, a little more there, bingo: Take the over.

Of course, the NFL is more complicated than that. The Saints have one of the league's softest run defenses; as we noted in the Sleeper RB Performance slide, Colts tailback Frank Gore is having a quietly solid year.

If the Colts are running wild, they won't need to throw nearly so much—nor will Brees and the Saints have as many snaps and minutes with which to throw.

While it's easy enough to add up one (two soft pass defenses) and one (two prolific quarterbacks) to get two (lots of passing yards), this week could remind our panel that NFL logic is always a bit fuzzy.

Others receiving votes: Under.

Flop of the Week

Matt Ludtke/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: None!

Well, it finally happened.

Our writers were not able to come to any kind of a consensus on this, the last and least glorious category of the week. For our weekly flop nomination, every single one of our writers picked a different...ahem, honoree.

The Indianapolis Colts were picked to be the Saints' second straight upset victim. The Dolphins were selected to wake up to reality after a dream start for interim head coach Dan Campbell.

Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham got the nod for continuing to spin gold into straw. The Jets were picked to make everyone who picks them look bad, and Philip Rivers and the Seahawks both got slapped with an overrated tag.

Others receiving votes: Colts, Dolphins, Nick Foles, Jimmy Graham, Jets, Philip Rivers, Seahawks.