2016 NFL Draft Scouting Notebook for Week 6

Come on into the film room. The lights are low, the chairs are uncomfortable and hopefully you brought your own sunflower seeds. This is where the magic of scouting happens. 

It's in the film room that teams are designed and where dynasties are built. Everyone knows who the top-tier players are, but it's the grind of studying players over and over again that allows great teams to be built. It's how you make the decision to take a flier on a Tom Brady at pick No. 199 or Russell Wilson in Round 3. It's how you know to let some players slip past you even if the media call them a need.

NFL draft scouting is all about the film. Do the stats posted on Saturday come about because of traits and talents or scheme and poor competition? There's only one way to find out, and that's by grabbing the clicker, turning down the lights and studying the game film. And that's what I've been doing for the last week. Clicker in one hand, pen in the other. And these are the results.

The Scout's Report

— The biggest news of the last week was the knee injury Georgia running back Nick Chubb suffered. As a true sophomore, he isn't eligible for the NFL draft until 2017, but the injury still sent shock waves through college and the NFL due to his talent. In speaking to an NFL team doctor this week (who requested anonymity), it's feared that Chubb's injury could be career-ending. The doctor explained that Chubb was lucky to have no nerve damage, but that a PCL tear is far worse than an ACL tear and far worse than the injury Chubb's teammate, Todd Gurley, suffered one year ago.

— The biggest riser on my own board this week is Nebraska DL Maliek Collins. He's easy to spot on the defensive line wearing No. 7, but this Kansas City native has top-tier quickness and agility for a 300-pounder. He's now a top-20 player for me.

— Former Auburn wide receiver Duke Williams' stock has taken a huge hit this season due to off-field issues. He was a top-five receiver on my summer board, but as of today he's ranked as an undrafted free agent with multiple red flags after being kicked off the team following a bar fight. 

— Michigan State left tackle Jack Conklin had some hype coming into the year thanks to strong numbers and the fact that he held Joey Bosa in check last year. But after studying more film, I question Conklin's athleticism on the left side. He looks like he'll be a long-term starter at right tackle, but not the left side.

— One last personal film note and we'll get to the rumors and notes: Alabama's defensive line is loaded, but it's Jarran Reed whom people should be talking about most. The versatile defensive end has been the best player on the talented line all season. He's a Round 1 player on my current board.

— In talking to one high-level scout this week, he reminded me that Vernon Hargreaves "may only be 5'10" before saying "but he's one of the five best players in this draft." That'll be an interesting debate among NFL teams this spring if Hargreaves leaves Florida as a junior. He's an elite cornerback, but he doesn't match the current trend of bigger height and length for cornerbacks.

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

— One scouting contact attended Michigan State vs. Rutgers on Saturday and noted quarterback Connor Cook "really struggles with pressure, but he kept them in the game." The same scout feels like Cook has a Round 2 grade but will likely be drafted in Round 1.

— One more Connor Cook note: A position coach I spoke with this week prefers Cook to Christian Hackenberg, saying "Cook is more game-ready. Hackenberg is a mess fundamentally."

— There has been a lot of talk on Twitter about the strength of the 2016 draft class. In polling five NFL decision-makers this week, all felt the 2016 class has the potential to be better than the 2015 draft if the top underclassmen all declare.

Five Names to Know

5. No. 23 FS Tyvis Powell, Ohio State

The Ohio State defense is absolutely loaded, and Tyvis Powell deserves a ton of credit for his ability as a rangy, versatile safety for the Buckeyes. Powell, a player left off my last top-100 list, would be a top-75 player if I had to re-rank them now.

4. No. 12 QB Paxton Lynch, Memphis

Memphis head coach Justin Fuente has a great reputation among NFL teams for being a bit of a quarterback guru. He backed that up with his work with Andy Dalton at TCU, and with Paxton Lynch playing well early on, it's time to take a look at this big-armed passer with surprising mobility.

Mel Evans/Associated Press

3. No. 1 WR Cayleb Jones, Arizona

One of the top junior receivers in the nation, Cayleb Jones is moving up draft boards each week. And in a year that seems light at wide receiver, a player like Jones has a chance to make a move into the top 50.

2. No. 90 DE Jonathan Bullard, Florida

Jonathan Bullard has been among the most productive edge-rushers in college football this year, and he'll get a great test Saturday against LSU bookends Jerald Hawkins and Vadal Alexander. 

1. No. 12 QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State

We all know how hyped Christian Hackenberg has been—and he was impressive last week against Indiana—but he needs to put together a string of good games to satisfy quarterback-hungry fans. A test against Ohio State looms, and if Hackenberg can impress, he'll win over a lot of doubters.

Scouting Report: Myles Jack, UCLA

Throughout the 2016 draft season, I'll highlight one draft prospect each week with a first-look scouting report. 

No. 30 Linebacker Myles Jack, UCLA (6'1", 245 lbs)

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Strengths: Myles Jack is an accomplished two-way player, having lined up at running back and all three linebacker spots for UCLA over the last two seasons and three games of his junior year. Jack displays amazing effort and burst on the field. He rushes the quarterback with nice first-step quickness and snap anticipation. Jack is willing to take on blockers and create a collision with his run fits. He's often in place to clean up piles and will deliver a big hit on a runner.

Jack is a first-class athlete with the hips to turn and run with tight ends in the NFL. He'll get in gaps in the run game and rock back offensive linemen. As a pro linebacker, Jack has the traits to attack the quarterback, play in coverage and stop the run. He's a three-down linebacker and top-15 player.

Weaknesses: The torn ACL suffered in practice is an obvious weakness but not one that will prevent Jack from being a first-round pick if his rehab goes as planned. On the field, there will be concerns about his limited reps at linebacker and the fact that he's never truly played one linebacker spot exclusively.

There have been instances where Jack butted heads with coaches, including being kicked out of practice after a fight with a teammate. He can be out of control on the field, chasing misdirection and boot-action plays, but he was able to overcome that with athleticism in college. He'll have a harder time making up for mistakes against NFL speed.

Pro Comparison: Alec Ogletree, St. Louis Rams

The Big Board

Every season I have a rule about not using NFL standings for a mock draft before the first quarter of the season is over. And here we are with five weeks in the books. So while this isn't a crystal-clear picture of how the draft order will look, it's as good as we can get in mid-October. And while there may be some shifting within each tier, it's not common for teams with a 2-3 record or worse to make a playoff push.

Using the current draft order (based on wins and losses plus strength of schedule), here's how the first round would look today:

Danny Moloshok/Associated Press

Parting Shots 

10. A new ESPN "30 for 30" debuted this week, taking a look at the rise and fall of USC under Pete Carroll. Trojan War was an interesting mix of the pre-championship building of the program, a quick look at the 34-game winning streak between 2003 and 2005, the loss to the Texas Longhorns in the national championship game and finally a summary of the Reggie Bush sanctions. It left me wanting more, though, and got me thinking about possible "30 for 30"-style documentaries I'd like to see.

No. 1 on my list? A look at the 2008 Florida Gators. With Urban Meyer at head coach, the Gators won a national title with an incredibly unique group of players. Tim Tebow quarterbacked a team otherwise stocked with characters (to put it kindly). Percy Harvin, Riley Cooper, Aaron Hernandez, Mike and Maurkice Pouncey, Jermaine Cunningham, Carlos Dunlap, Brandon Spikes, Joe Haden, Janoris Jenkins, Will Hill and Ahmad Black made up the core of the roster. The majority of them have been in some kind of trouble since then, which makes the leadership of Tebow—a straight-laced Boy Scout—something I'd love to see investigated.

9. San Francisco 49ers' quarterback Colin Kaepernick had a head-scratcher of a comment this week when talking to the press. 

"Ultimately, whether the receiver catches the ball and the ball's in the right position is the only thing that matters," Kaepernick said, per ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez. "Mechanics are—I'm not huge on them. You can look at Philip Rivers throw; you can look at Tom Brady throw. Looks completely different, [but] they're both great quarterbacks."   

I'm sorry...what?! A quarterback completing 62.9 percent of his passes should be looking at every possible fix to improve his game. Mechanics are the first step. Sure, Rivers and Brady throw the ball differently, but that isn't what Kaepernick's former college coach, Chris Ault, meant when he criticized Kap's mechanics to Fox Sports' Ross Jones. 

Quarterback mechanics are about body transfer, weight transfer and a consistent motion in your arm and hand while releasing the football. Rivers and Brady have different throwing motions, but each player's motion and mechanics are consistent. Brady looks the same whether he's throwing a quick slant or a 15-yard out to the opposite hash. His footwork, his weight transfer, his arm angle...it's all consistent.

Kaepernick can work out with whatever quarterback guru he wants and blow up my Instagram feed with pictures of him "grinding" all day, but until he understands that mechanics fuel his accuracy (or inaccuracy) as a passer, he'll never get it.

8. We're going to talk a lot about quarterbacks this week, folks, and I hope you're OK with that. 

When evaluating college or pro quarterbacks, one thing I chart (with a good ol' pen and paper) is how far the quarterback actually throws the ball on each pass—complete or incomplete. These yards—from quarterback to catch—are called "air yards," and they're really fascinating to look at in comparison to the yards distributed in the box score. Based on my tracking so far this year, here are the results from the top quarterbacks in college this year:

1. Detroit	DT Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss
2. Jacksonville	DE Joey Bosa, Ohio State
3. Baltimore	CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida
4. Houston	QB Jared Goff, California
5. Kansas City	T Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
6. San Francisco	LB Jaylon Smith, Notre Dame
7. Tennessee	CB Jalen Ramsey, FSU
8. Miami	RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
9. New Orleans	DT Kenny Clark, UCLA
10. Chicago	T Laremy Tunsil, Ole Miss
11. St. Louis	WR Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss
12. San Diego	EDGE Jordan Jenkins, Georgia
13. Tampa Bay	DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson
14. Seattle	T Taylor Decker, Ohio State
15. Oakland	LB Myles Jack, UCLA
16. Cleveland	WR Tyler Boyd, Pitt
17. Washington	QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
18. Philadelphia	QB Connor Cook, Michigan State
19. Dallas	DT Maliek Collins, Nebraska
20. Minnesota	WR Josh Doctson, TCU
21. Indianapolis	DL DeForest Buckner, Oregon
22. New York Giants	DL Austin Johnson, Penn State
23. Buffalo	EDGE Vince Biegel, Wisconsin
24. Pittsburgh	SS Su'a Cravens, USC
25. New York Jets	FS Jayron Kearse, Clemson
26. Arizona	LB Reggie Ragland, Alabama
27. Atlanta	LB Joshua Perry, Ohio State
28. Green Bay	EDGE Kamalei Correa, Boise State
29. Cincinnati	EDGE Darron Lee, Ohio State
30. Denver	DE Jarran Reed, Alabama
31. Carolina	T Jack Conklin, Michigan State
32. New England	no pick (Deflategate)

7. So many nice people took time to blast me last Thursday night when No. 1 player Jared Goff threw five interceptions against Utah. It was a bad night on a nationally televised game, and I'll take my medicine when a highly ranked player has a bad night. But I'd remind folks to not always trust the box score. And that's whether I like the player in Round 1 or in Round 7.

The Utah defense beat Goff up, but his wide receivers did him no favors, either. One interception was a clean drop off Kenny Lawler's hands, and another came when Lawler didn't try to hold inside leverage on a quick slant. It was an off night for Lawler overall, as he looked like a Round 1 player until he was asked to face more physical cornerbacks and play over the middle. But that's only two interceptions, and Goff threw five. 

I felt like two passes were awful decisions where he either trusted his arm too much or didn't see the defender—and that's hard to guess at from the TV broadcast. The final interception? A tipped screen pass.

The box score looks bad, and it was a bad game, but I'm not wavering on Goff after one bad night where his receivers dropped three passes (two for touchdowns) and ran poor routes on countless other plays.

6. One more quarterback note, this one from the NFL. Can you name the starting quarterbacks scheduled to become free agents after this year?

They are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kirk Cousins and Sam Bradford. 

It's always fun to point this out when fans start talking about replacing Matthew Stafford or Jay Cutler. And the Detroit Lions may want to look at a new quarterback if they have the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but it's always good to remember that replacing a starting quarterback sounds like a great idea until you realize how poor the alternatives are.

5. I'll be a limited tweeter this weekend as I travel to South Bend, Indiana, to watch USC take on the Fighting Irish for some in-person scouting. If you're tuning in on Saturday night, here's a look at the players I'll be watching on each side:

Quarterback	Air Yards	Box Score Yards
Connor Cook, Michigan State	947	1343
Jared Goff, California	1231	1970
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State	522	1086
Cardale Jones, Ohio State	570	1157
Cody Kessler, USC	466	1453

4. I tweeted this week that LSU running back Leonard Fournette had me wanting to break my rule about not scouting non-draft eligible players, but he's not alone. Quarterbacks Brad Kaaya (Miami, Fla.), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M), Deshaun Watson (Clemson) and Josh Rosen (UCLA) are so talented that I catch myself watching them play way more than I should.

3. A lot of folks have been asking on Twitter about where certain underclassmen are ranked or why certain underclassmen were left off my top-100 list last week.

My rule on underclassmen is this: If the player stood out on film while I was studying prospects during the 2014 season, they were entered into my "futures" database and studied over the summer. Otherwise, I'm relying on agents, coaches and area scouts to advise me on which juniors and redshirt sophomores I should be looking at in-season. But if I feel an underclassman isn't likely to leave school early, I'm going to save him for viewing later on in the year.

With so many players to watch and being a one-man show, it's better to save a player such as Jourdan Lewis at Michigan until he makes a decision on his future in January than to spend three to give games on him now and he doesn't declare early.

2. Kyle Shanahan has been mentioned here before as an up-and-coming head coaching candidate, and it's worth mentioning something that makes him a better candidate than most.

In his last two stops—Atlanta and Cleveland—Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for a first-time head coach with a defensive background. Mike Pettine in Cleveland and now Dan Quinn in Atlanta have essentially made Shanahan the head coach of the offense while they focus on the defense. That makes him much more qualified to handle an entire team, given his weekly and game-day responsibilities with total control of the offense.

1. This article is almost 100 percent football 52 weeks out of the year, but I'd like to end on a non-football note by saying this: Go Royals.

Matt Miller covers the NFL and NFL draft for Bleacher Report.