Dodgers vs. Mets: Keys for Each Team to Win NLDS Game 3

How important is winning Game 3 of the National League Division Series? Not quite as important as you might think. Of the 10 previous best-of-five series, nine arrived at Game 3 with the series deadlocked. The team that emerged victorious went on to advance to the National League Championship Series five times. 

Falling behind 2-1 in the series isn't ideal, but those numbers at least offer some hope for the club that loses Monday night's meeting between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets.

With the Dodgers posting a losing road record during the regular season (37-44) and the Mets having one of baseball's best home records (49-32), the Game 3 advantage would seem to lie with the host team. And maybe the Mets deserve to be slightly favored heading into the action.

But the real advantage will go to the club that comes closest to delivering on the following keys to victory.

Both Teams Must Keep Emotions in Check

Depending where your rooting interest lies, Chase Utley's slide into second base that broke Mets shortstop Ruben Tejada's leg in Game 2 either looked like this:

Or like this:

While ESPN.com's Mark Saxon reported Utley has been suspended for Games 3 and 4, his agent said he's appealed the decision and USA Today is reporting he may be eligible to play in both games.

If he plays—he does have good career numbers against Mets starter Matt Harvey (6-for-18 with a double, home run and .984 OPS), "The Dark Knight" Matt Harvey could plunk Utley with a fastball in his first at-bat and get baseball’s traditional form of retribution out of the way.

If he doesn't, the Mets shouldn't look for revenge on a random Dodger, whether it be hitting one with a pitch or trying to take out an infielder at second base with an out-of-control slide.

Utley may be New York's most wanted, but this isn't The Untouchables.

Should the Mets decide payback can't wait and plunk someone, the Dodgers need to just accept it for what it is and move on. The last thing either team needs is for another player to go down with an entirely avoidable injury.

Dodgers Infield Defense Must Be on Point

No starting pitcher did a better job of keeping the ball on the ground this year than Los Angeles' Game 3 starter Brett Anderson, whose 66.3 percent ground-ball rate was the highest among qualified starters.

But the Dodgers infield defense, specifically in the middle of the diamond, is far from Gold Glove-caliber.

Position	UZR/150	MLB Rank	DRS	MLB Rank
1B	3.0	12th	11	3rd
2B	-5.1	23rd	-13	29th
3B	2.8	15th	2	12th
SS	-4.2	19th	-4	22nd

If Utley is unable to play, the Dodgers will be losing their best defensive option at second base, where his 4.3 UZR/150 and 5 DRS lead the club. That would put added pressure on his likely replacement, Howie Kendrick, who happens to be suffering through the worst defensive season of his career.

Regardless of who makes up Los Angeles' double-play combination in Game 3, that player is going to have to elevate his game when in the field if the Dodgers are going to take advantage of Anderson's penchant for keeping the ball on the ground.

Mets Must Ignore the Splits

While most teams tend to see an uptick in offensive production at home, the Mets aren't like most teams.

Venue	BA	SLG	OPS
Home	.233	.389	.693
Away	.255	.411	.730

New York's home slugging percentage and OPS ranked 26th in baseball; its batting average ranked dead last.

Those splits become even more alarming when you look at how some of the biggest bats in the team's lineup produce—or rather fail to produce—in the confines of Citi Field. 

Player	BA (Home)	BA (Away)	SLG (Home)	SLG (Away)	OPS (Home)	OPS (Away)
Yoenis Cespedes	.224	.333	.480	.697	.769	1.070
Travis d'Arnaud	.248	.288	.455	.517	.773	.878
Lucas Duda	.275	.215	.611	.368	1.000	.684
Curtis Granderson	.239	.277	.426	.486	.757	.880
Daniel Murphy	.251	.310	.417	.480	.707	.832
David Wright	.333	.258	.476	.404	.885	.764

If you're a Mets fan, those numbers do nothing to indicate that the team will be able to put more than five runs on the board, as they did in Games 1 and 2 combined at Dodger Stadium. Only first baseman Lucas Duda and third baseman David Wright have been more productive at home than on the road.

Granted, New York's stellar pitching tends to make a lack of offense less of an issue than it would be for other teams, and both Duda and Wright are capable of carrying the offense for a night or two.

But the team's chances of ending the series at home—or at the very least forcing a Game 5 back in Los Angeles—would be far better if someone else followed the lead set by the corner infielders.

Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.

Hit me up on Twitter to talk playoff baseball: @RickWeinerBR.