Complete Offseason Guide, Predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates

Despite posting baseball's second-best regular-season record and hosting their third consecutive National League Wild Card Game, the Pittsburgh Pirates are heading home after a 4-0 loss at the hands of Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs.

It's another disappointing end to a season for a team that, if it played in any other division, would have been able to avoid the one-game playoff altogether. Changes are certainly coming to PNC Park, but a massive overhaul probably isn't in the cards.

What follows is an overview of some of the decisions the team is going to have to make—and some of the players they may look to in order to bolster the roster.

Payroll Breakdown

Associated Press

Finances dictate that GM Neal Huntington will have to make some tough decisions this winter.

Pittsburgh is never going to compete with the likes of Boston, Los Angeles or New York in terms of payroll, but team president Frank Coonelly doesn't believe that fact can keep the Pirates from contending.

"As I've told our staff here, there's only one category that we will not lead the league in, and that's payroll," he told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Bill Brink in spring training. "There's no reason why we can't lead the league in every other category, and that includes winning percentage at the end of the year."

For that to happen, general manager Neal Huntington will need to dip into his bag of tricks. With a slew of players due raises through arbitration and others heading for free agency, Huntington must choose wisely when it comes to which players he chooses to invest in.

That's going to lead to some difficult—and perhaps unpopular—decisions this offseason.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Neil Walker may be too expensive for the Pirates to keep around.

Players Headed for Arbitration (2015 salary)

• 1B Pedro Alvarez ($5.75 million)
• C Francisco Cervelli ($987,500)
• RHP Jared Hughes ($1.075 million)
• 1B/OF Travis Ishikawa ($1.1 million)
• LHP Jeff Locke ($531,000)
• RHP Mark Melancon ($5.4 million)
• SS Jordy Mercer ($538,000)
• 1B/OF Travis Snider ($2.1 million)
• 2B Neil Walker ($8 million)
• C Chris Stewart ($1.225 million)
• LHP Tony Watson ($1.75 million)
• RHP Vance Worley ($2.45 million)

Pittsburgh has a lot of key players due significant raises through arbitration this offseason. How significant?

Consider this: Pittsburgh has seven players under contract for roughly $51 million, and the folks over at MLB Trade Rumors estimate that, were all the above players to go to arbitration, it would cost the Pirates an additional $51.3 million.

That'd bring their 2016 payroll to more than $104 million, a $14 million jump from the team's Opening Day payroll this season. Clearly, some tough decisions are going to have to be made.

Keeping Francisco Cervelli, Mark Melancon and Jordy Mercer are necessities, even with the trio likely to cost the club upward of $12 million, with Melancon landing the biggest salary at $8 million. Extending all three is certainly an option, deals the team could look to back-load to keep some immediate flexibility.

But the same can't be said of Neil Walker. With Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer and Jung Ho Kang capable of handling things at second base, shortstop and third base, respectively, the Pirates don't necessarily need to spend an extra $10 million on Walker, who could find himself dangled as trade bait.

Pedro Alvarez, who figures to command a salary around $8 million despite atrocious defense at first base (27 home runs guarantees he's going to get paid), may also become prohibitively expensive to keep around, especially if the team believes prospect Josh Bell is ready to take over in 2016.

Look for both Alvarez and Walker to leave, while Cervelli, Melancon, Mercer and the other pitchers on this list all work out new deals to stick around.

Pittsburgh's Own Free Agents and Players with Options

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

J.A. Happ has been nothing short of phenomenal in Pittsburgh.

Potential Free Agents

• LHP Antonio Bastardo
• RHP Joe Blanton
• RHP A.J. Burnett
• LHP J.A. Happ
• 1B/OF Corey Hart
• 3B Aramis Ramirez
• IF/OF Sean Rodriguez
• RHP Joakim Soria 

A.J. Burnett and Aramis Ramirez are retiring, the failed Corey Hart experiment is coming to a merciful end and Joakim Soria figures to receive multiple offers to close elsewhere. Ideally, the Pirates would be able to bring back the rest of their own free agents, but if there's one player they must keep, it's J.A. Happ.

The soon-to-be 33-year-old has found his groove under the watchful eyes of manager Clint Hurdle and pitching coach Ray Searage, going 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts, fanning 69 over 63.1 innings of work.

With an insanely deep free-agent crop of starting pitchers and what figures to be a lengthy wait before finding a new home, Happ may be open to working out a two- or three-year extension with the Bucs, ensuring that he'll not only have a regular rotation spot, but also playing for a contender.

Ultimately, the two sides will agree on a three-year, $32.5 million pact.

Potential Free-Agent Targets

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Fixing Bud Norris could be Ray Searage's next challenge.

Everyone knows the Pirates aren't going to be players for the biggest names on the free-agent market, which could give them an advantage over some of their bigger-market competition. While they're all trying to outbid each other, the Bucs can quietly add the secondary pieces they seek.

Here are some of the names the Pirates could be linked to once free agency begins.

• Mat Latos, RHP: Given his past success and relative youth (27), Latos may ultimately prove to be out of Pittsburgh's price range. But if he's looking to get his career back on track, there may not be a better team with an opening in its rotation for him to join than the Pirates.

• Bud Norris, RHP: A reclamation project for sure after an awful 2015 (6.72 ERA, 1.58 WHIP), but he's had success before and could offer tremendous value as a buy-low option. Entering his age-31 season, he should still have some good years left in him.

• Mark Reynolds, 1B: Whether it's Alvarez or Bell at first base, Reynolds would provide the Pirates with an experienced bat they could use in a platoon situation against left-handed pitching. He's solid defensively and won't command a massive salary.

• Ben Zobrist, IF/OF: He'll be entering his age-35 season, but Zobrist remains highly productive and effective at multiple positions. He's probably too expensive for the Pirates, but he would provide them with both insurance and options on a daily basis.

Potential Trade Targets

Fred Vuich/Associated Press

Adam Lind would be a perfect fit in Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh isn't about to trade away any of its top young talent, but with one of baseball's best (and deepest) farm systems—Bleacher Report's Luke Strickland ranked it baseball's sixth-best after the trade deadline—the Pirates have plenty of ammunition with which to facilitate a trade.

Keep in mind there's no indication any of the players listed below are readily available...yet. But once the playoffs are over and the offseason kicks into high gear, they could be.

• Andrew Cashner, RHP, San Diego Padres: The 29-year-old was said to be available at the trade deadline and figures to be on the block this winter. He went 6-16 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and he could benefit from a change of scenery and the Pirates' magic touch with pitchers.

• Matt Garza, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers: The veteran starter had an awful season (5.63 ERA, 1.57 WHIP) and was not happy when told he'd been removed from the rotation. Milwaukee would have to pick up most of the $38 million left on his deal to make him a risk worth taking for the Bucs.

• Adam Lind, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers: Entering the final year of his deal, Lind isn't a long-term answer at first base for the Pirates. But he crushes right-handed pitching and would be an excellent platoon partner for Bell.

Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs; all payroll and salary information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.

Want to talk Pirates' offseason plans or anything baseball-related? Hit me up on Twitter: @RickWeinerBR.