Daily Fantasy Football October 3: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Early-season explosions and slow starts in the world of NFL fantasy football are to be taken with a grain of salt. But by the time we reach the one-quarter mark of the season, there's a much better feel for which performances are here to stay.

Week 3 saw a massive uptick in daily fantasy points across DraftKings, with a number of weapons going off for huge outings. Knowing which ones of those are bound to continue the high level of play, however, is a completely different ball game.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are those who laid a metaphorical egg despite high hopes. And given the way things have gone for them, steering clear is the best option for Week 4—and perhaps beyond.

Let's look at a few of each, in this installment of "Stock Up, Stock Down."

Stock Up

QB Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders ($5,300)

David Richard/Associated Press

A Week 1 injury had Oakland Raiders fans worried that Derek Carr's potential breakout season would never materialize. As it turned out, that was just an early speed-bump for an astounding start to 2015.

Ever since returning, he's put up nearly 54 DK points through the last two weeks, surpassing the 30-point plateau against the Baltimore Ravens. Amari Cooper's arrival has been the game-changer many expected it to be, and a strong run game has given Carr more time to operate.

When future Hall of Famer Charles Woodson is lauding him, it carries a lot of weight as Sirius XM NFL Radio noted:

A favorable Week 4 matchup should allow Carr to continue peaking. His Raiders play the Chicago Bears, who have already given up eight passing TDs and no longer have Jared Allen rushing the passer.

RB Chris Johnson, Arizona Cardinals ($4,500)

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Think the possible return of Andre Ellington is going to have a negative impact on Chris Johnson's surprise breakout early in 2015? Think again.

Well, it may eventually pan out that way, but not in the immediate future. Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians himself said so, telling Sirius XM NFL Radio that he should still get 15-20 touches if Ellington does return.

Johnson got 23 total touches in Week 3, and exploded with them, going for 150 total yards and two touchdowns for 31 DK points. At a below-average price tag and facing a Rams defense that struggles with speed in the middle, Johnson will feast again.

TE Gary Barnidge, Cleveland Browns ($3,100)

David Richard/Associated Press

I can hear the little voice inside many a head at this selection: "Who?"

After Week 3, though, Browns tight end Gary Barnidge is a player who should be right in the crosshairs of those looking for high-value players this weekend. At the minimum tag of $2,500 last week, Barnidge caught six balls for 105 yards and a touchdown.

He's even outplaying a certain former Browns tight end, as Steve Doerschuk of the Repository (Canton, Ohio) noted:

Quarterback Josh McCown has shown chemistry with hardly anyone past Barnidge thus far, and the Chargers—Cleveland's Week 4 opponent—rank in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends.

Stock Down

WR Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints ($6,100)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

A breakout second season for Saints wideout Brandin Cooks was on the cards for 2015, but instead, he's facing a woeful sophomore slump.

Cooks has put up an average of just over 10 DK points per contest through three games, which isn't nearly enough to justify his price tag. His salary has slipped $1,000 entering Week 4, and with good reason as he's without a touchdown all season.

Quarterback Drew Brees is set to return Sunday after missing one game, but that doesn't mean Cooks' struggles are in the rear-view mirror just yet—not until we see reasons to believe otherwise.

RB Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,500)

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Pegged as one of the NFL's top running backs in fantasy before the season, the sky is pretty much falling on Jeremy Hill in terms of his value to the Cincinnati Bengals—and to fantasy owners.

A two-touchdown season debut looked like a sign of things to come. Instead, it was a mirage, as he followed it up by losing two fumbles in Week 2 and had just 21 yards in Week 3. Even more worrisome is the fact that Giovani Bernard is now splitting carries—and doing more with the workload.

NFL Fantasy Football proved as much:

Hill's slumping production has his salary dropping, but don't let that be a reason to look his way. With Bernard's recent improvement, he's a much more serviceable option and costs $1,500 less.

RB Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins ($4,100)

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Hill isn't the only running back once pegged for a big season who is quickly losing his job (or at least losing a lot of his touches) to another backfield player.

Also on that list is Alfred Morris, who has seen his own struggles along with Matt Jones' early explosion drop his production. He's barely put up 10 DK points over the last two weeks combined, while Jones has over 34 DK points in that span.

The fact that Morris' salary is now below Jones', and they're facing the Philadelphia Eagles' boisterous run defense, should have owners looking away from the Redskins rusher in Week 4.

Pricing information and scoring data obtained from DraftKings.com. All statistics courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.

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