Week 4 Waiver Wire: Fantasy Projections for Top Pickups and Sleeper Targets

Just three weeks into the 2015 NFL season, injuries are setting in and ruining a great many fantasy football lineups.

There are also players whom it might not be too soon to call busts, and others good enough to upgrade them from flash-in-the-pan status to real-deal fantasy football producer. Scouring the waiver wire becomes more and more important with each passing week.

Here's a look at the top adds and drops in fantasy football after Week 3. Ownership percentages are based on Yahoo Sports and ESPN leagues.

These lists exclude players who are owned in more than 50 percent of fantasy football leagues to account for larger 12- and 14-team leagues, with room for exception in the drops category for particularly notable changes in performance or expectations.

Top ESPN Additions
Top Yahoo Additions
Player	% Owned	% Change last 7 days
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo	44.4	+26.6
Crockett Gillmore, TE, Baltimore	24.7	+23.2
Bilal Powell, RB, NYJ	24.4	+19.3
Browns D/ST	32.6	+19
Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati	39.4	+18.4
Rishard Matthews, WR, Miami	16.1	+15.3
Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis	24.7	+14.9
Robbie Gould, K, Chicago	28.2	+14.9
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle	49.3	+13.6
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland	19.8	+9.3
Player	% Owned	No. of Monday Adds
Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo	27	41,961
Rishard Matthews, WR, Miami	33	20,852
Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati	21	20,073
Charles Clay, TE, Buffalo	18	19,316
Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo	39	17,583
Josh Brown, K, New York Giants	38	16,425
Thomas Rawls, RB, Seattle	3	14,397
Derek Carr, QB, Oakland	25	14,201
Ty Montgomery, WR, Green Bay	6	9.436
Chris Johnson, RB, Arizona	42	8.267

Top ESPN Drops
Top Yahoo Drops
Player	% Owned	% Change Last 7 Days
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Tampa Bay	24.2	-34.9
Alfred Blue, RB, Houston Texans	40.2	-27
Dwayne Allen, TE, Indianapolis	45.1	-23.9
Lions D/ST	36.9	-18.8
Titans D/ST	7.2	-18.7
Owen Daniels, TE, Denver	40.4	-13.5
Devin Funchess, WR, Carolina	34.6	-13.2
Benjamin Cunningham, RB, St. Louis	13.6	-13.1
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami	36.0	-11.7
Cody Latimer, RB, Denver	18.9	-11.5
Player	% Owned	No. of Monday Drops
David Johnson, RB, Arizona	59	10,503
James Starks, RB, Green Bay	58	10,256
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Pittsburgh	49	9,740
Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco	69	6,738
Crockett Gillmore, TE, Baltimore	45	6,421
Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh	41	5,252
Brandon Coleman, WR, New Orleans	29	4,626
Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego	32	4,330
Jared Cook, TE, St. Louis	20	3,823
Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle	45	3,647

Projections for Top Targets

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

Plenty of fantasy football players are switching over to T-Mobile. This isn't about cellphone providers, either. That's the nickname of the the most fashionable fantasy quarterback in the league right now.

A fifth-year player but first-time starter, the Buffalo Bills brass thrust Taylor into the spotlight this season, handing him the reins to the team's offense. So far, Taylor has made them look pretty darn intelligent.

Week	Opponent	COMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	RSH YDS	RSH TD
1	Indianapolis	14/19	195	1	0	41	0
2	New England	23/30	242	3	3	43	1
3	Miami	21/29	277	3	0	12	0

With quarterbacks like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger injured, and stalwarts like Philip Rivers not performing up to their usual levels, Taylor's play makes him a very attractive fantasy football option. Buffalo is coming off a 41-14 road win against Miami and will play the New York Giants at home in Week 4. 

The G-Men have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs this season, and an anemic pass rush hasn't helped, as Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News noted: 

"

For all the plays the defense has made, it’s barely breathed on opposing QBs, totaling just three sacks in three games.

Years ago, the Giants pass rush was fearsome in the fourth, disrupting hurry-up pass attacks. But Romo completed 11-of-12 passes on his last two drives in the opener, and Matt Ryan was 9-for-13 in the fourth quarter in Atlanta’s victory.

None of this is surprising, since Jason Pierre-Paul is nowhere near East Rutherford. But if the ‘D’ can’t pressure quarterbacks, opponents will always have a shot at coming back.

"

This bodes well for Taylor, as he should have time to go through his progressions like he did against a Miami team that had no sacks and just three quarterback hits. Taylor is plenty quick at quarterback, so if the Giants pass rush does revive, he can still use his legs to pick up points. 

The Giants have a fairly opportunistic defense, forcing five turnovers in three games, but even if Taylor makes a few mistakes, there are points to be had in this contest with his squad coming off a resounding win. 

Projection: 250 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 50 rushing yards

Karlos Williams, RB, Buffalo

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Three touchdowns in three weeks as LeSean McCoy's caddy? That will get all the desperate fantasy owners to come running. Rookie back Karlos Williams has proved to be a delightful surprise for Buffalo fans, setting an NFL record in his first three games with his scoring exploits, per ESPN Stats and Info:

McCoy owners will be smart to snag Williams off waivers if they can, as NFL.com's Rand Getlin reports Buffalo could rest Shady this week against New York: 

ESPN's Adam Schefter noted the Bills' confidence in Williams:

That should translate into confidence for fantasy owners if McCoy actually sits out Week 4.

Williams isn't just scoring touchdowns for the Bills. He's also picking up yards in steady chunks. Of his 24 carries this season, 13 have gone for five yards or more, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. 

New York has been fairly tough on the run, allowing just two rushing scores and 3.4 yards per carry to opposing backs, the fourth-best mark in the league. However, few backs are built like the 6'1", 230-pound Williams. If Buffalo's offensive line can give Williams a crease, he has the frame to pick up the tough yards. And if Taylor plays well against the Giants, that will only open up more running lanes for him.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

This projection is entirely dependent upon whether or not McCoy plays. Assuming Buffalo rests their star running back, Williams is in line for heavy workload and a strong fantasy performance. Fantasy owners would only have to hope Boobie Dixon—another big, bruising back who scored in Week 1—doesn't take over Williams' touchdown-vulture role.

Projection: 70 rushing yards, 20 receiving yards, 1 TD (without McCoy); 40 rushing yards, 10 receiving yards (with McCoy)

Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati

Nick Wass/Associated Press

The Cincinnati Bengals are 3-0 and firing on all cylinders. Andy Dalton is looking like one of the league's top quarterbacks with no signs of slowing down. This bodes well for Marvin Jones, who has scored a touchdown in each of the past two weeks and has a tasty matchup coming up against Kansas City. 

Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers tossed five touchdowns against the Chiefs Monday night, a desultory performance from the Kansas City secondary that surely has Bengals owners salivating. Jones has improved his play in every game this season, including finding the end zone in each of the past two games.

Week	Opponent	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	TGTS
1	Oakland	2	19	9.5	0	3
2	San Diego	2	48	24.0	1	5
3	Baltimore	5	94	18.8	1	8

Now, he still only has nine receptions on 16 targets through three weeks. A.J. Green had a monstrous game in Week 3 against Baltimore, so he could command plenty of looks again this upcoming week, leaving the likes of Jones and tight end Tyler Eifert with relatively few targets.

The Chiefs have given up more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team so far, but they've played Rodgers and Peyton Manning in back-to-back weeks. Dalton is no Rodgers, although he is playing extremely well.

That said, Jones is a phenomenal athlete who appears to be getting back to his pre-injury ways after missing all of 2014 with an ankle injury. He should find a way to snag a couple of big catches downfield and help out fantasy owners in larger leagues. He just might not be the killer wideout you need if you're in a smaller points-per-reception league.

Projection: 4 catches, 90 yards

Potential Sleepers

Lance Dunbar, RB, Dallas

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Yes, a running back with two carries in three games is worth a shot in today's NFL. Although he shares time in the Cowboys backfield with Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden, Lance Dunbar is showing up those two—and every other Dallas skill player in the passing game, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News: 

The fourth-year back picked up 10 catches for 100 yards in Dallas' Week 3 loss to Atlanta. That's a solid performance for a committee running back. With Brandon Weeden leading the offense in Romo's stead and Dez Bryant out with a foot injury, Dunbar should continue to see plenty of looks as a checkdown option.

Dallas takes on New Orleans in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in Week 4. Domes are friendly to the passing game, and the Saints defense has been porous this season. They've allowed 1,191 yards of total offense, the fourth-worst mark in the league. 

Dunbar's success in the passing game could lead to more carries as well, as the Cowboys might be forced to run the ball with him to keep defenses from assuming pass when he's in the backfield. Rotoworld's Evan Silva noted he was picking up plenty of the team's snaps through September 22: 

He's an agile runner with the ability to make defenders miss in the open field and break for big gains. Dallas can also split him out wide and take advantage of mismatches. Dunbar has plenty of confidence in his ability to avoid linebackers, per Machota:

With Dallas not likely to blow teams away with Weeden under center, look for Dunbar to see the field often and make for a fine flex option, especially in PPR leagues. Perhaps this is the week he finally gets into the end zone.

projection: 7 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD


Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Carolina

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

He might not be your sleeper target in PPR leagues, but Ted Ginn Jr. could be a sneaky-good flex play in Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Ginn has been the class of Carolina's admittedly uninspiring wide receiver corps. He has 22 targets—twice as many as the next-best wideout, Devin Funchess—and his 10 receptions equal the combined total of Jerricho Cotchery and Philly Brown.

Only tight end Greg Olsen has received more looks than Ginn this season. 

Tampa Bay is a solid Week 4 matchup, as the Bucs have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Ginn is also coming off a 93-yard performance against New Orleans in Week 3, and he scored his lone touchdown of the season against Houston the week prior to that. 

Panthers.com's Max Henson saw more of his burst and top-line speed against the Saints:

He's liable to break out for a big gain on any given play. Cam Newton's never been a very accurate passer, a fine reason for fantasy owners to be leery of a deep threat like Ginn.

Still, Ginn is emerging as the leader in a wide receiver corps that had no real pecking order coming into the season after Kelvin Benjamin went down with a season-ending knee injury. Look for Ginn to put up solid numbers and solidify his spot as the No. 2 target in the Panthers offense.

Projection: 4 catches, 70 yards, 1 TD

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all stats are courtesy of ESPN.com. All points against stats courtesy of Yahoo Sports.