NFL Predictions Week 3: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

The good news is that the football-watching world has had two games to get a handle on what all 32 teams really are, fueling our expert consensus projections to ever-higher levels of accuracy and insight.

The bad news is that your favorite NFL team's season is one-eighth of the way over.

It's hard to believe, but it's true: With two games in the books, plenty of big-deal results are written in stone. Some really talented teams are sitting at 0-2, and they'll be stuck carrying around those two Ls for the rest of the regular season.

Some teams we didn't expect to win a lot of games are undefeated right now. Fans of those teams should relish it now, because the good times may not last.

Some players are starting hot but will finish cold. Some superstars are starting slow but will eventually pick up the pace. In some cases, these surprising early starts are The New Normal—what we'll be seeing from these players and teams the rest of the way out.

In nearly every case, our experts disagree about which teams are for real, which players are flashes in the pan and who'll really deliver in Week 3. But with their prognosticative powers combined, Bleacher Report is proud to bring you the absolute best in football clairvoyance.

Biggest Upset

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Washington (+4) over New York Giants—three votes

At this point, the NFC East is almost impossible to call. The Cowboys roster has been gutted by injury, the shorthanded Giants look completely uninspiring, and the Philadelphia Eagles have shown none of the old Chip Kelly magic.

That leaves Washington, a team whose defense and offense have taken turns looking surprisingly competent. If Washington can put two units together into a complete team, it will have more than enough to take down the flailing Giants, whose injury problems are spiraling out of control.

Per James Park of 247Sports, Victor Cruz and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie are out, and rookie tackle Ereck Flowers is doubtful. There's only so much Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. can do by themselves, and most of our experts like Washington to be able to do a bit more.

NFL Analysts Brad Gagnon and Sean Tomlinson both like Jameis Winston's Tampa Bay Buccaneers to outgun Ryan Mallett and the Houston Texans, J.J. Watt notwithstanding.

Others receiving votes: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4) over Houston Texans—two votes, Detroit Lions (+2.5) over Denver Broncos, New York Jets (+2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over Miami Dolphins

Biggest Blowout

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Seattle Seahawks over Chicago Bears—five votes

The Seahawks have had a shockingly slow start to the season, dropping two straight against the St. Louis Rams and Green Bay Packers.

However, the reigning NFC champions are stocked with way too much talent for the bottom to fall out—especially now that safety Kam Chancellor has ended his holdout and returned to the team facility, per Sheil Kapadia of ESPN.com. These Seahawks should be mad, motivated and ready to decimate anyone who stands in their way.

Who stands in their way? The Chicago Bears, who'll be without starting quarterback Jay Cutler. Backup Jimmy Clausen will get his first meaningful start for the Bears against a scary opponent.

The three remaining experts took Tom Brady and the white-hot New England Patriots over the Jacksonville Jaguars; as unlikely as it is that Brady throws for 466 yards two weeks in a row, it's also hard to believe Blake Bortles and company bump off two of the AFC's strongest contenders back-to-back.

Others receiving votes: New England Patriots over Jacksonville Jaguars—three votes

Higher Total: Adrian Peterson Rushing Yards or Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards?

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Adrian Peterson—seven votes

Adrian "All Day" Peterson has had a slow transition back into his usual role of running, well, all day long against whoever tries to stop him.

After running for just 3.1 yards per carry (not to mention only getting 10 carries) in the Vikings' season opener, Peterson averaged a much more typical 4.6 yards with his 29 carries against a DeAndre Levy-less Detroit Lions. That's the per-carry average Chargers tailback Melvin Gordon has put up across both of his games so far.

That's why your humble author set rushing yards between Peterson and Gordon as the "higher total" slide this week.

Seven of our experts would take Peterson all day.

Others receiving votes: Melvin Gordon

Biggest Mismatch

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Seahawks defense vs. Jimmy Clausen—five votes

As discussed on the biggest blowout slide, Clausen and his 11 starts in six career seasons presents a chop-lickingly terrible mismatch for the Seattle Seahawks' starving defensive front.

With the Seahawks sure to pin their ears back and attack a Bears offense missing its top two wideouts, poor Clausen will likely be a sitting duck. Even when he can get a pass off, just-returned safety Kam Chancellor and the reunited Legion of Boom secondary will clamp down on all of his targets.

Oh—and it's Seattle's home opener.

It's hard to imagine this game as anything but a bloodbath.

Three of our experts saw another obvious mismatch: Impossible-to-stop Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski "vs. earthlings," as NFL Analyst Gary Davenport put it. The Jaguars defense is indeed comprised of earthlings, and Gronkowski has been superhuman so far this seasons.

Others receiving votes: Rob Gronkowski vs. Jaguars defense—three votes

Sleeper QB Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Nick Foles—four votes

Nick Foles is a limited quarterback. He does not have dominant tools, and in St. Louis he does not have dominant weapons, either. Yet he's put up some amazing numbers in this league when everything falls right—and four of our analysts love his matchup against the leaky Steelers defense.

Before the news Johnny Manziel would sit this week, NFL Analyst Gary Davenport gripped and ripped his vote for the Cleveland youngster so well that it would be a shame not to include his analysis:

"

Maybe it's because the Cleveland Browns aren't asking him to do too much (15 pass attempts in Week 2). Maybe it's because Johnny Manziel really does appear to have matured as a player, especially in the pocket. Maybe it's because the Browns face an Oakland Raiders secondary this week that has already been decimated by injuries. Or maybe Cleveland's atrocious new uniforms gave me an aneurysm. Whatever. I'm drinking the JFF Kool-Aid in Week 3.

"

Getting two votes, notably, was Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, who continues to play more solidly than many give him credit for—and who'll be facing a Giants defense without top cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Others receiving votes: Kirk Cousins—two votes, Johnny Manziel, Tyrod Taylor

More Passing Yards: Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Tannehill?

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Expert Consensus Pick: Ryan Tannehill—five votes

Here's a fun little AFC East matchup: In yet another way to split the four-way horse race in that division, the two young quarterbacks will face off against the two most stacked defensive fronts.

Taylor has more and better receiving weapons, but Tannehill has established himself as one of the better young quarterbacks in the game. Neither gets great protection, per Pro Football Focus; the Bills so far rank 20th in the NFL and the Dolphins 27th.

Taylor and the Bills have a much stronger running game; so far they're averaging 4.87 yards per carry, tied to the second digit with the San Francisco 49ers for tops in the NFL. The Dolphins have struggled to run the ball, ranking 28th in average yards per carry—so will Tannehill get more reps?

It's a fascinating matchup, and it's no surprise our voters broke down so evenly.

Others receiving votes: Tyrod Taylor—three votes

More Turnovers: Jameis Winston or Ryan Mallett?

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Ryan Mallett—five votes

Two young quarterbacks just getting their feet wet as starters; two young quarterbacks facing defenses with a sprinkling of all-world talent (but mediocre production). Our voters think Texans quarterback Ryan Mallett will be responsible for more turnovers than Jameis Winston, but only just.

Here's NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier, speaking for the majority:

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Mallett is not going to produce many interceptions, because an interception typically happens only when you throw a pass close enough to the receiver that the defender has a chance to make a play on it. Quarterbacks who are inaccurate by a yard or two produce interceptions. Quarterbacks who bounce the ball to the receiver or throw screen passes at 175 miles per hour at a point five yards over the receivers head can generally be counted upon to "take care of the ball." Also, J.J. Watt will force Winston to fumble at least twice.

"

Winston will surely make his share of mistakes against J.J. Watt and company, but he'll have more weapons, and more options when things go wrong, than Mallett.

Others receiving votes: Jameis Winston—three votes

Sleeper RB Performance

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: David Johnson—four votes

If you missed third-round rookie David Johnson putting up 251 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns on just—brace yourself—10 touches, you have exactly one more week to get on the "sleeper" train.

Johnson has been an incredibly effective spark plug, returner and change-of-pace guy for an Arizona Cardinals offense in desperate need of all three.

This week, the Cardinals face off against the all-over-the-place San Francisco 49ers, who allowed just 71 rushing yards in Week 1 and not many more in Week 2. Yet if this game gets into a shootout, Johnson is well equipped to be a part of the passing game (not to mention catch a lot of returns).

Dexter McCluster was one of the biggest preseason surprises, especially against his former Kansas City Chiefs. McCluster, though, has quietly eclipsed Bishop Sankey as the Titans' most productive back. McCluster, a former rusher/returner/whatever, fell just two yards short of his first 100-yard game last week. Two of our experts like him to make a statement in Week 3 against the flailing Indianapolis Colts.

Others receiving votes: Dexter McCluster—two votes, Lance Dunbar, Jonathan Stewart

Sleeper WR Performance

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Expert Consensus Pick: Andrew Hawkins—two votes

On this topic, the Bleacher Report Expert Consensus panel almost had a complete failure. If two of our panelists had not voted for Cleveland Browns wideout Andrew Hawkins as their sleeper wide receiver of the week, they would not have reached a consensus at all.

Outside of NFL Analysts Ty Schalter and Brent Sobleski, every single one of our experts picked his own unique receiver sleeper.

Hawkins is an interesting case, as he's been forgotten after the incredible six-catch, 204-yard, three-touchdown supernova performance his teammate Travis Benjamin had in the first two weeks. Hawkins, who got NFL Analyst Gary Davenport's vote, hauled in three big catches for 43 yards against the Titans in Week 2. As the Oakland Raiders focus on Benjamin this week, look for Hawkins to run wild over the banged-up Oakland secondary.

Others receiving votes: Doug Baldwin, Cole Beasley, Travis Benjamin, Dorial Green-Beckham, Tyler Lockett, Jermaine Kearse

Sleeper TE Performance

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Expert Consensus Pick: Crockett Gillmore—five votes

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is always at his best when he has a great tight end to work with. The only problem is that the Ravens have struggled to keep one on the field with him.

Second-round rookie Maxx Williams was widely tipped to have a big role this season, but as ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley wrote, he's merely the "understudy" to little-known Crockett Gillmore. 

Little known, that was, until he caught five passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns in a just-barely-losing effort last week. As the Ravens face a sudden must-win against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, Flacco will likely pick on the Bengals' aging linebacker corps with the second-year third-round pick out of Colorado State.

NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman went bold with his pick: Jimmy Graham, the All-Pro who's been all but invisible across his first two games in Seattle. Likely to be a focal point of the Seahawks' bounce-back attack against the vulnerable Chicago Bears, Graham could re-establish himself as one of the game's premier pass-catchers.

Others receiving votes: Eric Ebron, Jimmy Graham, Richard Rodgers

Best Defensive Performance

Margaret Bowles/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Richard Sherman/Cliff Avril/Michael Bennett/"Anything in a Seahawks uniform"—four votes

Our Expert Consensus panel called them by many names, but the sentiment was the same: The full-strength Legion of Boom and the chip-on-their-shoulder Seattle Seahawks are going to hit Jimmy Clausen and the poor, defenseless Chicago Bears with everything they've got.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, meanwhile, recites his weekly mantra:

"

I cannot, in good conscience, ever list a player in this category whose name does not rhyme with J.J. Watt. You can double-team him. Triple-team him. Send a cabal of pygmy ninja assassins to his hotel to break his kneecaps the night before the game. It isn't going to matter. And this week Watt gets a rookie quarterback in Jameis Winston. Poor Jameis. We hardly knew you.

 

"

Others receiving votes: Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots defensive front, Oakland Raiders, J.J. Watt

Over/Under: 80 Pass Attempts for Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford

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Expert Consensus Pick: Over—five votes

Here are two teams with No. 1 overall pick quarterbacks, supporting casts stacked with Pro Bowlers and promising young runners gobbled up by fantasy owners everywhere. Yet when push comes to shove, these two teams tend to lean hard on their franchise signal-callers, letting them throw wherever they want, whenever they want.

Both teams have struggled out of the gate, though the Broncos have played a little better and gotten a few more breaks. If this game is close, it should turn into a back-and-forth shootout guaranteed to crack 80 pass attempts. But if one team jumps out to a lead, it should be able to put it in the cooler—and suddenly the "under" would look like the attractive option.

Five of our experts gave the "over" the nod; this is sure to be one of the most interesting matchups in a week full of them. 

Others receiving votes: Under—three votes

Flop of the Week

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars offensive line/secondary—two votes

Oh dear.

It's embarrassing to admit, but our Expert Consensus panel didn't truly come to a consensus here. However, NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman and NFL Analyst Sean Tomlinson picked two completely different units from the same team—the Jacksonville Jaguars—to flop in the face of the mighty New England Patriots juggernaut.

In a bit of editorial license, we'll lump them together as the consensus Flop of the Week—while worthy contenders like the Dallas Cowboys offense get shuffled off to our "others receiving votes" section.

One of the most interesting one-off nods: Giovani Bernard, the electric Bengals tailback who'll get his old primary gig back now that Jeremy Hill is out. Either NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon thinks Bernard is overrated, or he hates the matchup against the motivated Baltimore Ravens front—or both.

Others receiving votes: Dallas Cowboys offense, Giovani Bernard, Miami Dolphins defensive line, Ben Roethlisberger, Odell Beckham Jr., Atlanta Falcons defense