Early Fantasy Football Duds Ready to Bounce Back in NFL Week 2

Each year, without fail, my Twitter feed fills up with ridiculous overreactions to what happened in Week 1. Almost all of it is about players who fell short of expectations in just the first game of the season. The gripes range from players being overrated to reasons they should be benched or possibly traded. There’s nothing quite like #OverreactionMonday, and I have to laugh at it or I’ll lose my mind responding.

In 2013, Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy was the 61st-best running back in total fantasy points through the first four weeks of the season. He finished that season seventh in total fantasy points among RBs. In 2014, Lacy was 38th in total fantasy points over the first four weeks. He ended up sixth at the RB position in total fantasy points for all of 2014.

If you’re freaking out about how players like Justin Forsett, Calvin Johnson and Greg Olsen performed in Week 1, try to take a step back and remember it’s just one week. Look at what happened to Lacy after the first month of the season over the last two years. Don’t give up on a player so quickly, especially your top draft picks. 

Players like Andrew Luck and Amari Cooper may not bounce back in Week 2 because of tough schedules to open the season, but I have faith both will get back on track soon after and make any early-season concerns look foolish come December.

I’ll be focusing on the players who will get back on track in Week 2 after falling well short of expectations in Week 1. Consider this a therapy session to cleanse any lingering negative thoughts from the opening weekend so you can start fresh when Sunday rolls around.

Calvin Johnson

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Week 1: Two receptions, 39 yards, four targets, 5.9 fantasy points (61st among wide receivers) 

How and why did Calvin Johnson see just four targets in a decent matchup against the San Diego Chargers in the opener? I have a lot of trouble explaining that, and when Johnson was asked about it by reporters, he couldn’t do anything but laugh, per Mlive.com's Kyle Meinke.

Fantasy owners certainly weren’t laughing and found themselves reaching for answers. Is Johnson too old to be dominant? Was quarterback Matthew Stafford wrong to spread the ball around (at least four targets for four different players)? Are years of injuries slowing down Johnson? These questions seem a bit too harsh after just one game.

There isn't a clear explanation as to why Johnson had such a quiet performance to open the season, but the Detroit Lions won’t let it happen again when they head to Minnesota for their Week 2 matchup.

The Vikings had no answers for San Francisco 49ers running back Carlos Hyde, so they weren’t really tested through the air, as quarterback Colin Kaepernick completed just 17 of his 26 attempts for 165 yards and no touchdowns. No 49ers receiver had more than four receptions or 47 yards.

The Lions could give the Vikings a strong dose of running back Ameer Abdullah, based on what Hyde did in Week 1, but I think they’ll test Minnesota’s secondary and go to the air more than the 30 attempts Stafford had against the Chargers. More attempts means more targets for Johnson, and in a beatable matchup, he should be able to bounce back in a big way.

Greg Olsen

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Week 1: One catch, 11 yards, three targets, 2.1 fantasy points (41st among tight ends)

In a week that may go down in history as one of the best for tight ends in fantasy, Greg Olsen, one of the few tight ends who’s considered the top target on his team, failed to come through. It may have been the biggest surprise at a position that gave us almost all positive production when it came to legit fantasy starting options. 

Week 1 saw 18 different TEs score at least 10 fantasy points. Olsen couldn’t do that despite a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. And that’s even more surprising when you consider quarterback Cam Newton’s other options. With Kelvin Benjamin on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Devin Funchess not in the starting lineup, Newton turned to Jerricho Cotchery, Ted Ginn and Philly Brown. 

If that’s the best the Panthers have to offer, you can be sure Olsen will make his presence felt in Week 2 against the visiting Texans. Houston got destroyed by Travis Kelce, who posted six receptions for 106 yards and two touchdowns on just six targets. Olsen may not be the freak athlete Kelce is, but he does play more like a wide receiver than tight end and is a great red-zone target. 

Unless the Texans make significant improvements and changes to their game plan, there’s no stopping Olsen in Week 2.

Justin Forsett

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Week 1: 14 carries, 43 yards, four receptions, 13 yards, seven targets, 9.6 fantasy points (34th at running back)

Baltimore hired Marc Trestman to be its offensive coordinator after Gary Kubiak left to become the head coach of the Denver Broncos. Before their Week 1 matchup, many, including myself, expected running back Justin Forsett to get off to a strong start as the cornerstone of Baltimore’s offense.

The Ravens mustered just 13 points and didn’t have an offensive touchdown against the Broncos defense, which may be one of the best in the league. So not only did Forsett falter, but so did quarterback Joe Flacco, who completed 18 of 32 pass attempts for just two interceptions, and wide receiver Steve Smith, who had just two receptions for 13 yards on seven targets. No one had more than 25 receiving yards or four receptions on the team. 

Look for Forsett to get back in the good graces of fantasy players in Week 2 when the Ravens take on the Oakland Raiders. Cincinnati Bengals running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard rushed 27 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns. Bernard also added six receptions for 25 yards on six targets.

Other than Forsett and Smith, the Ravens have very little established, consistent talent, so with a better matchup in Week 2, Forsett should be featured early and often. Put your faith back in him after the slow start out of the gate in Week 1.

Sammy Watkins

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Week 1: Zero receptions, three targets; 113 wide receivers put up at least some kind of fantasy points. Watkins had none.

If you told me before last week that the Buffalo Bills would dominate the Indianapolis Colts on their way to a 27-14 victory and do so without Sammy Watkins recording a reception or yard, I wouldn’t have believed you. They did just that, much to the chagrin of those who played Watkins with confidence in the opener. 

One of my biggest concerns for Watkins came true immediately. The Bills got a great showing out of their defense, were able to limit how much they threw it and, in turn, used their ground game to carry the offense. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor was asked to throw it just 19 times, leaving very few opportunities for Watkins to put up strong numbers.

Watkins should play a bigger role when the New England Patriots head to Buffalo for an early-season AFC East showdown. Last week, New England dominated Pittsburgh on the scoreboard, but the Steelers still had plenty of production on the ground and through the air. They combined for 26 receptions, 351 yards and a touchdown in the loss, and it showed that New England doesn’t hold up as well without former cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner in its secondary.

Buffalo’s defense may have another dominating performance, but the Patriots will make this a much more competitive game than what we saw between the Bills and Colts in the opener. That’s why Taylor should throw more, which means great opportunities for Watkins against a revamped but beatable Patriots defense.

Eli Manning

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Week 1: 20-of-36 for 193 passing yards, zero touchdowns, zero interceptions, one rush for eight yards, 8.5 fantasy points (30th at quarterback)

The New York Giants put up 26 points on the road and Eli Manning threw 36 passes, yet the Giants lost 27-26 to the Dallas Cowboys and Manning was one of the worst fantasy quarterbacks in Week 1. Sounds like a pretty terrible start all around.

The Giants were without wide receiver Victor Cruz (calf), so in addition to wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., they turned to WRs Preston Parker and Rueben Randle to pick up the slack. Beckham had just five receptions for 44 yards on eight targets, and Parker and Randle combined for five receptions, 49 yards and zero touchdowns on 11 targets. Luckily, running back Shane Vereen came through with four receptions for 46 yards on five targets.

So why should I have faith in Manning? The matchup against the Atlanta Falcons sure looks like a good one. Atlanta’s defense came out strong in Week 1, holding the Philadelphia Eagles to just three points in the first half of their victory. However, they didn’t play nearly as well in the second half and gave up 21 points. The Eagles were not sharp early, yet Sam Bradford still finished with 336 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. 

The Falcons defense isn’t very strong, and the same can be said for the Giants, so this could be a battle of whose offense takes better advantage of the favorable matchup. Even if the Giants don’t come out on top, Manning should have a better chance to produce for fantasy owners thanks to the matchup and the chance at plenty of volume.

Brandin Cooks

Rogelio Solis/Associated Press

Week 1: Four receptions, 49 yards, eight targets, one carry, four yards, 9.3 fantasy points (46th at wide receiver)

The New Orleans Saints struggled to keep up with the Arizona Cardinals last week, losing 31-19 on the road. Running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson led the team on the ground and through the air. That didn’t leave much for the wide receivers, especially in a tough matchup against a strong Cardinals defense. 

With Ingram and Robinson combining for 13 receptions, 149 receiving yards and 15 targets, Brandin Cooks wound up playing a much lesser role than expected, although he was second in targets behind Ingram’s nine. Even wide receiver Brandon Coleman outperformed Cooks for fantasy purposes thanks to a touchdown and four receptions for 41 yards on seven targets.

Cooks and the Saints will have a great chance to get back on track at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs were embarrassed at home last week, losing 42-14 to rookie quarter Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans. Mariota’s efficiency allowed him to throw for 209 yards and four touchdowns on just 13-of-16 passing.

The Saints should get a lot more volume out of their passing attack, as you might expect with Drew Brees at the helm and more weapons around him. There’s absolutely nothing scary about this matchup, so if Brees wants to force-feed Cooks, as he attempted to do last week, he shouldn’t have a problem doing so. That could lead to a much better outing for Cooks in Week 2.

Lamar Miller

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

Week 1: 13 carries, 53 yards, one reception, 22 yards, one target, 8.5 fantasy points (36th at running back)

An accurate way to describe the picture above would be to say it’s one of the rare times we saw quarterback Ryan Tannehill execute a handoff to running back Lamar Miller in an ugly victory over the Washington Redskins in the regular-season opener. I’d love to say it was one of many successful exchanges between Tannehill and Miller, but that would be an unfortunate lie. 

For some odd reason, the Dolphins refused to commit to their rushing attack in a game that never got out of hand and never saw the Dolphins trail by more than three points in the second half. Even though the Dolphins had so much success running the ball with Miller in 2014, they stayed far away from that same plan of action in Week 1.

Hopefully, the Dolphins see the error of their ways and correct such a poor game plan before facing the Jaguars in Week 2. The Jaguars lost 20-9 to the Carolina Panthers, but kept things close throughout. Carolina racked up 105 rushing yards on 35 carries with just 56 yards and 18 carries coming from running back Jonathan Stewart.

The Jaguars already look like they have a better defense than last season, but they are far from dominant and the Dolphins should be able to run it, as they should. Miller was more of a RB3/flex last week, but should get back to RB2 numbers in a game I fully expect the Dolphins to control.