2015 MLB Award Race Odds Updates with 3 Weeks to Go
While Josh Donaldson keeps padding his lead in the American League MVP chase, many of the other 2015 MLB award races remain crowded as the season hits the home stretch.
A lot has changed since the last time we set the odds for baseball's most prestigious individual honors two weeks ago. In the process of resetting the odds, we took all sorts of factors into consideration.
For each award, we determined the field of contenders by focusing on the players and managers who have enjoyed the most success in 2015.
For the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young, which are all about individual performance, the most important factor was stats such as WAR, OPS, home runs, FIP, xFIP and ERA. For the Manager of the Year and MVP, the performance of each candidate's respective club also factored into the equation.
Each slide includes an honorable mention section, because for each award there are sure to be players and managers who will be on the fringes of the discussion but have no viable shot of winning the honor.
With just three weeks to go, there's a lot left to be decided in nearly all of these major races. And that's certainly true in the National League MVP conversation, where Yoenis Cespedes just elbowed his way into the picture.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
1 of 10
The Field
- Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: 3-2
- Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: 3-1
- Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles: 3-1
- Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers: 9-1
This race is still too close to call.
For now, Alex Rodriguez retains a slight edge thanks to a strong start to September. Since the calendar flipped, A-Rod has mashed six home runs and owns a .994 OPS for the New York Yankees.
It's been a remarkable season for the 40-year-old, who entered spring training as a giant organizational headache for the Yankees brain trust and has now transformed into an indispensable piece on a club that has all but locked up a postseason spot.
With 32 yard shots, Rodriguez has now tied Hank Aaron for the most 30-home run campaigns (15) ever, per ESPN Stats & Info. This season also marks the first time he's hit that milestone since way back in 2010.
Manny Machado and Chris Davis have also played their way into the mix by posting impressive bounce-back seasons for the Baltimore Orioles. With 29 jacks and an .861 OPS, Machado isn't just back to his pre-injury form but is actually better than he's ever been. Davis has made a second-half surge for this award, crushing 23 home runs in 56 games since the All-Star break.
While Davis has been rolling along, Prince Fielder has dropped off considerably since the Midsummer Classic. After logging 14 home runs and a .924 OPS before the break, he checks in with five homers and a .720 OPS in the second half.
Honorable Mention: Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees
NL Comeback Player of the Year
2 of 10
The Field
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: 5-6
- Matt Harvey, New York Mets: 6-5
Between Joey Votto and Matt Harvey, there's no wrong choice here.
In the second half, Votto has been putting up some video game numbers for the Cincinnati Reds with a .371 average, a .557 OBP, a .663 slugging percentage and a 1.220 OPS. Thanks to those numbers, Votto hasn't just pushed his way to the top of the field for NL Comeback Player of the Year honors but is also a legitimate MVP candidate.
Harvey has also been electric in the second half, as his 2.54 ERA ranks sixth in the NL since the All-Star break.
However, Harvey's chances of winning this award haven't been helped by the fact that he hasn't pitched since September 8, as the New York Mets aim to save his arm for a postseason run. As manager Terry Collins explained, per John Donovan of MLB.com, Harvey will likely be limited to four- to five-inning outings down the stretch.
Honorable Mention: Brett Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Jeff Francoeur, Philadelphia Phillies; Cameron Maybin, Atlanta Braves
AL Manager of the Year
3 of 10
The Field
- Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers: 2-1
- A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros: 2-1
- Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins: 3-1
- John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays: 10-1
There's a lot left to be determined in this race.
A.J. Hinch has long been the front-runner for the honor, but with the Texas Rangers now moving a half game in front of the Houston Astros in the AL West, the argument for Jeff Banister just keeps getting more compelling.
One of the most impressive aspects of Banister's work is that he has guided the Rangers into contention while calling on 12 different starting pitchers, as noted by Jon Morosi of Fox Sports.
Paul Molitor is another skipper who has proved to be an unexpected entrant in the field. The Minnesota Twins entered the year as an afterthought in the AL Central, but now the club is just 1.5 games out of the second wild-card spot with three weeks to go.
The case for John Gibbons is a complicated one. The manager has presided over a Toronto Blue Jays team that has been cruising in the second half, but it's difficult to know how much credit should go to Gibbons and how much should go to general manager Alex Anthopoulos, the architect behind the moves for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.
Honorable Mention: Joe Girardi, New York Yankees; Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals
NL Manager of the Year
4 of 10
The Field
- Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs: 2-3
- Terry Collins, New York Mets: 4-1
- Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates: 9-1
- Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals: 9-1
With the New York Mets rolling along and now the owners of a commanding 8.5-game edge in the NL East, Terry Collins is making an improbable charge to steal this award from Joe Maddon, the managerial wizard of the Chicago Cubs.
But as Matt Snyder of CBS Sports noted, there is one major factor playing against the Mets boss: "Collins still has a shot at this thing, but I wonder if the strength of the Central compared to the East favors Maddon, especially since Collins' Mets are 0-13 against the Cubs and Pirates combined."
Speaking of the loaded NL Central, Clint Hurdle and Mike Matheny certainly have a shot at upsetting Maddon, too. Hurdle has guided the Pittsburgh Pirates to the second-best record in the bigs (87-57) and to within three games of Matheny's Cardinals.
The St. Louis skipper often gets overlooked because winning has become so routine for his club. But there's nothing routine about piling up the most wins (90) in baseball while navigating a flood of injuries to key cogs such as Adam Wainwright, who's out for the year (and pitched just 25 innings), and Matt Holliday, who has missed nearly the entire second half due to a quad injury.
Honorable Mention: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants; Chip Hale, Arizona Diamondbacks; Don Mattingly, Los Angeles Dodgers
AL Rookie of the Year
5 of 10
The Field
- Carlos Correa, Houston Astros: 3-2
- Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians: 9-4
- Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins: 9-4
Francisco Lindor and Miguel Sano are sneaking up on Carlos Correa.
For much of the summer, Correa looked like a lock to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, but that was before Lindor took off. While Correa is hitting .250 in his last 15 games, Lindor has been swinging at a clip of .309 over the same stretch. For the 21-year-old Cleveland Indians shortstop, that's just more of the same as he's now batting .363 in his last 30 contests.
Sano has also slugged his way into the mix during his tenure with the Minnesota Twins. The 22-year-old designated hitter has connected on four home runs in his last 15 games and now has 16 on the season even though he's only appeared in 62 contests.
His limited playing time and the fact that he doesn't play a demanding defensive position put a dent in Sano's candidacy, but there's still a lot to like about his bat.
Right now, Sano leads Correa and Lindor in OBP and slugging percentage. If he had enough at-bats to qualify for the league leaders, his .950 OPS would be tied with Josh Donaldson for fourth-best in the AL.
Honorable Mention: Billy Burns, Oakland Athletics; Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays; Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays
NL Rookie of the Year
6 of 10
The Field
- Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs: 9-4
- Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates: 11-2
- Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants: 11-2
Leading all qualified NL rookies in RBI (92), OBP (.363), slugging percentage (.482), OPS (.845) and FanGraphs' WAR (5.3), Kris Bryant remains the favorite to take home this trophy.
But as the season winds down, Jung Ho Kang and Matt Duffy are still posing serious threats to Bryant as he angles for the NL Rookie of the Year. Kang, who is making $2.5 million in the first season of his four-year, $11 million deal (plus a $5 million posting fee and a $5.5 million team option in 2019), has been an absolute bargain for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The 28-year-old has been the most dangerous first-year player in the circuit in the second half as he's crushed 11 bombs and posted a .313 average and a .926 OPS.
Meanwhile, Duffy continues to quietly rake with the San Francisco Giants. The 24-year-old leads all qualified rookies in hits (153) and average and hasn't hit worse than .301 in a single month since taking over as the starter at third in May.
Honorable Mention: Maikel Franco, Philadelphia Phillies; Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals; Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers; Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
AL Cy Young Award
7 of 10
The Field
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros; 1-1
- David Price, Toronto Blue Jays: 9-4
- Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: 11-2
- Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox: 19-1
A September slide by Sonny Gray has opened the door for Dallas Keuchel to win the Al Cy Young Award.
At the beginning of the month, Gray led the AL with a 2.13 ERA. But after getting shelled in two of his last three starts, the righty's ERA has risen to 2.56. The rough spell drops Gray into third in that department behind Keuchel (2.22 ERA) and Price (2.46 ERA).
Both of those lefties have been nasty as the stretch drive wears on, as Keuchel owns a 1.81 ERA over his last seven starts and Price checks in at 2.47.
According to the advanced numbers, Chris Sale also deserves some Cy Young recognition. The Chicago White Sox ace ranks No. 13 in the AL in ERA (3.55) but leads the circuit in FIP (2.55) and xFIP (2.55), per FanGraphs.
Honorable Mention: Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays; Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros
NL Cy Young Award
8 of 10
The Field
- Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers: 1-4
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 9-1
- Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs: 9-1
Each of these three aces has a compelling argument to win the NL Cy Young Award.
In the second half, Jake Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw have been flat-out filthy. Since the Midsummer Classic, the Chicago Cubs righty ranks No. 1 in ERA (0.93), and the Los Angeles Dodgers lefty clocks in at No. 2 (1.06 ERA).
The advanced numbers favor Kershaw in the debate, as the 27-year-old leads all starters in baseball in FIP (2.10) and xFIP (2.16).
But as strong as the resumes of Arrieta and Kershaw are, it's impossible to ignore the season-long brilliance of Zack Greinke. The right-hander is sporting a 1.61 ERA, which is the fifth-lowest ERA of any starter who has thrown at least 144 innings since 1920, according to David Brown of CBS Sports.
For his part, Greinke is paying zero attention to all the Cy Young buzz flying around Chavez Ravine.
"It seems like it's a little too early, for one, to be talking about," Greinke said, via Mark Saxon of ESPN.com. "It started like two or three weeks ago," Greinke said. "And it's just not interesting to me to read it."
The way Greinke has been dealing, the starter can continue to read or not read whatever he likes. With three weeks to go in the season, this award is his to lose.
Honorable Mention: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates; Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
AL MVP Award
9 of 10
The Field
- Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays: 1-4
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 4-1
As David Price sees it, this one is all over: The AL MVP trophy belongs to teammate Josh Donaldson.
"If the season ends today it's a landslide and he's the MVP," Price told Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker on Baseball Central on Sportsnet 590, via Scott Lewis.
The stats back up the lefty ace's claim. According to FanGraphs, Donaldson is first in the AL in WAR (8.0), while Mike Trout is second in that department at 7.4. Donaldson also has the edge over Trout in average, slugging percentage, runs, extra-base hits and RBI.
Donaldson could also get a bump on the ballot because while Trout's Los Angeles Angels have been slogging along in the second half, the Toronto Blue Jays have turned into the scariest team in the AL. And Donaldson has been key to that rise, clubbing 17 home runs and logging a .667 slugging percentage and a 1.065 OPS since the All-Star break.
Honorable Mention: Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals; Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners; Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros; Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles; David Price, Toronto Blue Jays
NL MVP Award
10 of 10
The Field
- Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: 8-15
- Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: 9-1
- Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs: 9-1
- Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets: 19-1
- Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks: 19-1
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: 19-1
This is a difficult race to peg.
There's no question about it—Bryce Harper is the most outstanding player not just in the Senior Circuit but in baseball.
But the Washington Nationals right fielder will inevitably face questions about just how much value he's providing for a second-place club whose playoff hopes have effectively vanished.
The same question is likely to dog Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, who rank second and third, respectively, in the NL in OPS but are playing for teams that are non-factors in the postseason discussion.
Andrew McCutchen and Anthony Rizzo are the stars on a couple of October-bound teams in the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs, respectively; however, Harper's numbers dwarf those of both players:
- Harper: .338 AVG, 1.134 OPS, 39 home runs
- McCutchen: .301 AVG, .908 OPS, 22 home runs
- Rizzo: .276 AVG, .904 OPS, 29 home runs
The wild card in all of this is Yoenis Cespedes, who is unquestionably the most polarizing candidate in the running.
The Cuban has only played 42 games following a midseason swap from the Detroit Tigers to the New York Mets. But the impact that Cespedes has made on the postseason race is impossible to dispute. When he landed in Queens on the final day of July, the Mets were two games behind the Nats. Now, New York owns an 8.5 game-lead in the NL East.
Honorable Mention: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants; Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies; Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs; Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers; Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
