2015 MLB Award Race Odds with 5 Weeks to Go
While the Toronto Blue Jays' Josh Donaldson is clubbing his way toward the American League MVP Award, the field is starting to close in on the Washington Nationals' Bryce Harper for the National League's top honor.
From those two chases to the battles for the AL and NL Rookie of the Year trophies, there's still a lot left to be determined in the season's final five weeks. From this vantage point, the most competitive race of all appears to be the fight for the AL Comeback Player of the Year award, where players both young and old have played their way into the mix.
And based on how the campaign has worked out so far, the Houston Astros and Chicago Cubs are on their way to cleaning up when the awards season rolls around.
AL Comeback Player of the Year
1 of 10
The Field
- Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: 9-4
- Prince Fielder, Texas Rangers: 4-1
- Mark Teixeira, New York Yankees: 4-1
- Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles: 4-1
- Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: 9-1
There's a compelling argument to be made for any of these five players to win this award.
Alex Rodriguez has shocked the baseball world by becoming a key cog on a New York Yankees team that is on track to make the postseason. Mark Teixeira and Prince Fielder have both bounced back in a big way from injuries that ruined their campaigns in 2014. And then there's Chris Davis, who has crushed 36 home runs, which is tied for the second-most in the majors.
But none of them has enjoyed a season quite like Machado has. What separates him from the rest of the group is that he's been a game-changer both with the bat and the glove.
The right-handed hitter has already hit a career-high 26 home runs and is on his way to posting his best OPS (.851) ever. Per FanGraphs, Machado has saved the Baltimore Orioles 16 runs, which leads the AL and is tied for the most in the bigs. He has made such an impact with the O's that he's actually elbowed his way into the MVP conversation.
NL Comeback Player of the Year
2 of 10
The Field
- Matt Harvey, New York Mets: 1-1
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: 3-2
- Brett Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers: 33-1
- Jeff Francoeur, Philadelphia Phillies: 33-1
- Cameron Maybin, Atlanta Braves: 33-1
Make no mistake about it—this race will come down to Joey Votto and Matt Harvey.
Both Votto and Harvey have been making a furious charge for the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award in the second half. Dating back to the All-Star break, Votto has been putting up video-game numbers:
- .399 AVG, .581 OPS, .739 SLG and 1.320 OPS
In August, Harvey reeled off a 0.33 ERA and limited the opposition to a .160 average in four outings. According to Mark Simon of ESPN.com, that's the second-lowest ERA in New York Mets history over the span of a month (minimum 24 innings).
Ultimately, it's where each player's team sits in the standings that could give Harvey the edge. Simply put, Harvey, who's dealing for a first-place team that is flying toward October, has a far higher profile right now than Votto, who's starting for the last-place Reds.
While Brett Anderson, Jeff Francoeur and Cameron Maybin are on the periphery of the conversation for this award, they've all still put together comebacks worth highlighting.
Anderson has been unexpectedly reliable for the Los Angeles Dodgers, logging a 3.43 ERA and making his most starts (26) since way back in 2010. Francoeur has also enjoyed a renaissance for the Philadelphia Phillies. The vet's .271 average and his .766 OPS are his best marks since 2011. Meanwhile, Maybin has swiped 21 bags, which is his most since 2012. Plus, his .714 OPS is his highest since the 2011 campaign.
AL Manager of the Year
3 of 10
The Field
- A.J. Hinch, Houston Astros: 2-1
- John Gibbons, Toronto Blue Jays: 11-4
- Ned Yost, Kansas City Royals: 11-2
- Jeff Banister, Texas Rangers : 11-2
- Paul Molitor, Minnesota Twins: 10-1
There are no shortage of candidates for this honor.
Ned Yost has proven the Kansas City Royals weren't just a one-year fluke, as his squad has boat-raced the competition in the AL Central.
Jeff Banister and Paul Molitor are the two surprises of the group, as neither the Texas Rangers nor the Minnesota Twins figured to be factors in the postseason race when 2015 began. But as September rolls along, the Rangers hold the second wild-card spot and the Twins are just one game off the pace.
One skipper who's right at the top of the list of contenders is John Gibbons, whose Toronto Blue Jays have soared up the standings over the past month.
While the AL East front-runners are baseball's scariest team at the moment, Gibbons' candidacy is hurt by the fact that his boss will also earn much of the praise for the Jays' dramatic rise. After all, it was general manager Alex Anthopoulos who orchestrated the blockbuster trades for players such as David Price, Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins.
A.J. Hinch is another first-place manager who's put together a resume that just can't be ignored. In his first season in the Minute Maid Park dugout, the Astros have already piled up more wins (73) than the team totaled in all of 2014 (70). Barring a September collapse from the AL West leaders, Hinch is going to be taking home this trophy.
NL Manager of the Year
4 of 10
The Field
- Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs: 2-3
- Terry Collins, New York Mets: 4-1
- Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates: 9-1
- Mike Matheny, St. Louis Cardinals: 19-1
- Chip Hale, Arizona Diamondbacks: 19-1
With the Chicago Cubs (75-56) holding a 6.5-game edge in the chase for the second wild-card spot, manager Joe Maddon has built a highly compelling case for winning this award.
It's easy enough to understand why the young Cubs love to play for him. Maddon is the coolest skipper in the game, and he always knows just exactly what to say. When asked about the franchise's World Series curse, he just brushed that talk aside.
"They can ask whatever they want, I don't vibrate on that frequency," Maddon explained, per Jon Sciambi of ESPN.
While Maddon appears to be running away with this award, Terry Collins, Clint Hurdle, Mike Matheny and Chip Hale are worthy of honorable mentions.
Collins is far from popular in Queens, but it's impossible to disregard the impact he's made with the New York Mets, who lead the Washington Nationals by 6.5 games in the NL East.
Hurdle is the boss of the most dangerous second-place team in the majors, as the Pittsburgh Pirates' 79-51 record would put the the team in first place in four of baseball's six divisions.
The problem for Hurdle is that the Pirates are stuck in the NL Central, where Mike Matheny has guided the St. Louis Cardinals to a staggering 86-46 record despite missing a slew of key cogs such as Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay.
Meanwhile, Hale has been seriously impressive in his debut season in the desert. A year after the Arizona Diamondbacks won just 64 games, the club has already tallied 65 wins in 2015.
AL Rookie of the Year
5 of 10
The Field
- Carlos Correa, Houston Astros: 2-3
- Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians: 4-1
- Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays: 9-1
- Billy Burns, Oakland Athletics: 19-1
- Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins: 19-1
Even the other rookies know Carlos Correa is the heavy favorite to snag this distinction.
When Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com asked Andrew Heaney of the Los Angeles Angels if he thought he was a contender for Rookie of the Year, the lefty instead dished out praise for the 20-year-old Correa.
"There's this Carlos Correa guy. He's pretty (bleeping) good."
That's one way to put it. With 16 jacks and an .865 OPS, Correa has been battering the AL since landing in the big leagues earlier this summer. According to the Elias Sports Bureau (via ESPN Stats & Info), that home run output is the second-most by a shortstop before his 21st birthday in MLB history.
As good as Correa has been, he's not the only shortstop in the discussion.
Quietly, Francisco Lindor has been making an excellent first impression with the Cleveland Indians. The 21-year-old has been stepping up both at the plate and in the field. Lindor owns a .371 average in his last 30 games for the Tribe. Even though he's only appeared in 69 games, he leads all AL shortstops, with seven runs saved, per FanGraphs.
Roberto Osuna and Billy Burns will also garner some ROY votes thanks to impressive debut campaigns. Osuna has been lights out while pitching in relief for the Toronto Blue Jays, compiling a 1.99 ERA and locking up 16 saves in 18 tries. Burns, who has totaled 26 steals and posted a .296 average, has been one of the rare bright spots for the last-place Oakland Athletics.
Miguel Sano is playing the dark-horse role in this race, but he might be the front-runner if he'd been called up earlier in the season. In 50 games, Sano has cracked 14 bombs and put up a 1.011 OPS.
NL Rookie of the Year
6 of 10
The Field
- Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs: 2-1
- Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates: 9-4
- Matt Duffy, San Francisco Giants: 9-4
- Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets: 50-1
- Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals: 50-1
Kris Bryant has generated by far the most hype of the five players listed above, but the Chicago Cubs third baseman cannot be considered a lock to win the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
As the stretch drive ramps up, Matt Duffy and Jung Ho Kang are pushing Bryant in the race. Duffy, who wasn't even the starter at third when the season began, has been a vital contributor for the San Francisco Giants, sporting a .302 average.
Kang is in the midst of a second-half surge and is bolstering his ROY credentials. Since the All-Star break, the Pittsburgh Pirates infielder has posted a higher OPS (.981) than either Bryant or Duffy.
But on the season Bryant still leads the way in many of the most significant offensive categories. The 23-year-old tops the group in home runs (21), OBP (.370), slugging percentage (.482) and OPS (.852).
Noah Syndergaard would have much higher odds of winning this award if the New York Mets right-hander didn't struggle so extensively on the road. When he's away from Citi Field, Syndergaard clocks in with a 4.91 ERA. At home, the figure sits at 2.15.
For Randal Grichuk, a bum elbow has resulted in the right-handed hitter taking a backseat in this race. Grichuk has connected on 15 home runs and posted an .894 OPS in 85 games, but he's been stranded on the disabled list since the middle of August.
AL Cy Young Award
7 of 10
The Field
- Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics: 15-8
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros: 4-1
- David Price, Toronto Blue Jays: 4-1
- Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox: 4-1
- Scott Kazmir, Houston Astros: 19-1
In what has been a trainwreck of a season for the Oakland Athletics, Sonny Gray has been flat-out electric. The righty leads the AL in ERA (2.13) and has limited the opposition to the lowest average (.201).
While Gray looks like the front-runner for now, he's still facing plenty of competition for the Cy Young Award. Dallas Keuchel, Scott Kazmir and David Price rank second, third and fourth, respectively, in ERA.
Plus, Chris Sale can't be left out of the conversation. When the lefty is dealing, he's plain nasty to face. Sale has racked up at least 10 strikeouts in 13 outings. As Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago noted, Sale is the first pitcher to do that since Randy Johnson back in 2004. Unsurprisingly, Sale leads the majors with 239 punchouts.
NL Cy Young Award
8 of 10
The Field
- Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-2
- Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3-1
- Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs: 3-1
- Jacob deGrom, New York Mets: 19-1
- Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates: 19-1
Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta are doing everything they can to steal the NL Cy Young Award away from Zack Greinke, who owns a shiny 1.59 ERA.
Kershaw has destroyed the Senior Circuit in the second half. In eight starts since the All-Star break, the left-hander has posted a 1.02 ERA and limited the opposition to a .163 average, while recording 76 strikeouts in 62 frames.
Arrieta went 6-0 with a 0.43 ERA in August, capping off that run by throwing a no-hitter against the Los Angeles Dodgers on the second-to-last day of the month. As noted by SportsCenter, Arrieta is the third pitcher in the past 10 years to go 6-0 and record a sub-1.00 ERA over the course of a month. The last two pitchers to accomplish that feat—Justin Verlander and Kershaw—won not only the Cy Young but also the MVP award.
Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole have also put themselves in position to tally Cy Young votes. With a 2.32 ERA, deGrom is headlining a New York Mets rotation that is loaded with high-upside young starters.
Cole has the worst odds of the five starters listed because the righty hasn't been nearly as sharp in the second half of the season. The owner of a 2.30 ERA at the All-Star break, Cole has sported a 3.36 ERA in nine second-half starts.
AL MVP Award
9 of 10
The Field
- Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays: 1-1
- Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 3-2
- Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals: 19-1
- Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners: 40-1
- Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: 40-1
As Jose Bautista sees it, there's no debate to be had here. The AL MVP Award belongs to teammate Josh Donaldson.
According to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, Bautista said, "He's the best in the league so far, by far the MVP. If anybody doesn't think that, they're a fool."
Right now, it's difficult to disagree with Joey Bats. While Mike Trout is coming off of an August in which he hit .218, Donaldson just keeps rolling along. The third baseman hit 11 bombs last month and is now second in the AL in that department with 36 home runs. Donaldson also leads the bigs in runs (102) and has driven in the most runs (108).
But what really puts the 29-year-old ahead in the MVP conversation is his remarkable knack for delivering clutch hits. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Donaldson has more go-ahead knocks (29) than any other player in the game.
While he's a distant third to Donaldson and Trout in this chase, Lorenzo Cain is still worthy of recognition. The center fielder, who is the best all-around player on the best team in the AL, has been a triple threat in 2015. Cain covers tons of ground in center field, has been crushing the ball at the plate (.311 average and .867 OPS) and has totaled 26 steals.
Nelson Cruz will also land some votes for the AL MVP thanks to his monster year in his first season at Safeco Field. The Seattle Mariners have been a major disappointment, but Cruz, who has launched the most homers in baseball (39), has been anything but.
Like Cruz, Manny Machado is enjoying a brilliant season for an underachieving squad. A defensive wizard in the field for the Baltimore Orioles, Machado has smashed 27 doubles and 26 homers, while also swiping 17 bases.
NL MVP Award
10 of 10
The Field
- Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: 5-4
- Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: 4-1
- Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs: 4-1
- Paul Goldschmidt, Arizona Diamondbacks: 9-1
- Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants: 19-1
There's still a lot left to be decided in this race.
If the vote is just about numbers, then Bryce Harper is the clear favorite. The 22-year-old leads the majors in slugging percentage (.630), OBP (.461) and OPS (1.091). He's also pacing the NL in average (.333) and is second in homers (31).
The big issue with Harper's candidacy is that the Washington Nationals are in serious jeopardy of missing the postseason. Currently, the club is 6.5 games back of the New York Mets in the NL East. However, as Matt Snyder of CBS Sports said, the Nats' struggles shouldn't sink the right fielder in the race.
One argument we might hear against Harper is, "How valuable could he be if they can't make the playoffs?" However, the Nationals still have a shot at the playoffs. If not for the season Harper has given them, they'd long have been buried.
Anthony Rizzo and Andrew McCutchen are two MVP contenders whose respective clubs are anything but buried. With 26 homers and a .910 OPS, Rizzo has been the most consistent offensive force as the Chicago Cubs have shattered expectations in 2015.
McCutchen has been building an especially strong case as the season wears on. In the second half, the Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder has a .988 OPS. And he's been at his best in the biggest moments. With runners in scoring position, the 2013 NL MVP owns a .386 average.
Paul Goldschmidt remains on the fringes of the MVP debate, but he didn't help his cause by checking in with a .243 average in August. Buster Posey's .321 average and .851 OPS put him in the mix. But with the San Francisco Giants 5.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, the backstop will need to have a big September to land his second MVP award.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
