Panthers vs Steelers: Previewing Carolina's Preseason Week 4 Matchup

Even by preseason standards, the fourth preseason game of the year is a relatively dull affair to watch.  When the Carolina Panthers (2-1) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3) on Thursday, you’re not going to see Cam Newton or Ben Roethlisberger play more than a series, if even that.  Any established starters are going to rest.  With the regular season just 10 days away, the last thing you want is an injury, which would keep a starter out of games that actually count.

That doesn’t mean that the game isn’t important, however.  There’s an all-important cut-down date looming.  On Saturday, teams will have to go from 75 players to 53, shedding 22 more players from the active roster to be ready for game day.  That makes this game huge for players floating around the bottom of the roster.

When you look at the Panthers roster, you know that some players had locked up their spot before training camp had even begun.  Maybe they were recent high draft picks, like Shaq Thompson or Devin Funchess.  Maybe they had large contracts, like Cam Newton or Greg Olsen.  Maybe they were just flat-out great players, like Luke Kuechly or Thomas Davis.  Whatever the reason, they knew going in that their roster spot was more or less guaranteed.

By my count, that happens to be just about half the roster—38 players, to be exact.  That leaves 37 players left on the active roster who have been fighting for just 15 slots.  That’s why this game matters—it’s the last chance for half of the roster to prove they deserve to be Carolina Panthers in 2015.

So, while the final score of this one matters less than any other preseason game and you won’t see the same level of precision or skill you would see if this were starter-on-starter, don’t think this game doesn’t matter to those playing in it.  For some, it may be the last time they ever put on an NFL uniform.

Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Local TV: Varies from city to city, with WCCB Charlotte being the flagship station.  For a complete list of stations, including the one in your area, check out the television page here.  Mick Mixon and Mike Rucker will have the call.

National Rebroadcast: NFL Network will rebroadcast the game a few hours later at midnight, using Carolina’s feed.  If that’s too late for you, they’ll also rebroadcast it at noon on Saturday, which may be the most convenient option for Panthers fans not on the East Coast.

Last Week

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Cam Newton comforts Corey Brown.

With the starters playing into the third quarter, the Panthers looked as good as they have all preseason long. 

They forced Tom Brady and company to have two turnovers and four three-and-outs on their first six drives, though the Patriots did put up a touchdown at the end of the first half.  Yes, it was a New England Patriots team without Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell or Julian Edelman, and yes, the Patriots offense has been struggling this preseason, but that’s about as solid of a performance as you could possibly ask for out of your first-string defense.

If only the offense had been able to keep up. Don’t blame Cam Newton, who was 17-for-28 for 160 yards and a touchdown.  Blame instead the receivers, who seemingly could not hold on to the football.  Corey Brown had three potential touchdown passes thrown his way and caught none of them, with two of them being pretty clear drops.  Ted Ginn had a drop of his own, and even sure-handed Greg Olsen had a drop. 

The poor execution led to field goals rather than touchdowns, and that wasn’t enough to keep Jimmy Garoppolo and the backups from coming back to hand the Panthers a 17-16 loss.

We already knew that the offense wasn’t going to be as good as the defense will be this season, but then, they don’t have to be.  There were plenty of positive signs from the Panthers offense, and if they can just do a little better at finishing drives, their defense will keep them in plenty of games.  It’s a matter of polishing what’s there from here on out.

Meanwhile, the Steelers were getting pounded into a fine paste by the Buffalo Bills—the same Bills team the Panthers beat back in the first preseason game.  The Steelers defense, for so long a stalwart in the league, allowed 542 yards and 43 points against the Bills, including plenty of big plays—three passes of 27 yards or more and three runs of 20 yards or more.  Yes, there were injuries to key starters, but it was an unimpressive performance from the erstwhile Steel Curtain.

Newly signed quarterback Michael Vick provided some of the few highlights for the Steelers, going 4-of-5 for 116 yards, but all in all, it was a disaster of a dress rehearsal game for Pittsburgh.  To add injury to insult, they lost their second kicker of the season when Garrett Hartley went down, and it isn’t even Week 1 yet.  The Steelers have a lot to improve going into this game.

News and Notes

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NFL.com says the Panthers' fate is in Cam's hands.

Charlotte Observer: Roster Bubble is Real for 4 Carolina Panthers

The Charlotte Observer highlighted four players as being on the roster bubble prior to this week’s game:

• Wide receiver Corey Brown, who has struggled so far this preseason.  They quote a team source saying the team will be “watching the waiver wire” this week for another receiver.  There’s not enough talent on the roster right now to replace Brown, who flashed promise last season, but he’s also no longer an option the team can count on right now.  He’s at best the fourth receiver until he can catch passes thrown his way.
• Cornerback Lou Young, who just came back last week from an injured hamstring.  Young’s been solid in practice this past week, but he’s coming in way late in his goal to go from a practice squad player to the active roster, likely behind Teddy Williams and Carrington Byndom on the depth chart.  However, his solid week of practice plus a solid performance against Pittsburgh could earn him a spot on Carolina’s practice squad.
• Tight end Brandon Williams, who has spent most of the preseason on PUP with a groin injury.  He’ll get his first action on Thursday, and his job will be to prove the team can afford to keep four tight ends—he’s below Greg Olsen, Ed Dickson and Richie Broeckel at the moment and is highly unlikely to displace any of them.
• Linebacker Ben Jacobs, who was active for all 16 games last season but seems to be the odd man out in the current lineup.  When you have a team that drafted two linebackers and added Jason Trusnik in free agency, you’re going to have fewer roster spots for depth players from last season.  It seems hard to see Jacobs earning a spot this season.

NFL.com: It’s Cam’s Show

NFL.com is posting season previews for each team, and it recently covered the Panthers.  They, of course, highlighted Cam Newton and his big new contract:

"

Cam Newton is at once unfairly maligned and not good enough. People don't give him credit for being an above average starter that improves the mediocre talent around him. But Newton is also not a transcendent, top-five, MVP-candidate type of quarterback yet. And that's what will be required to put up points with this group. His No. 1 receiver is the artist formerly known as Philly Brown. His No. 2 receiver is a rookie (Devin Funchess) that many scouts (think) should play tight end. The offensive line is just as shaky beyond center Ryan Kalil, with Oher a major concern for Newton on the blind side. You could argue Newton has less help around him than any quarterback in the NFL.

"

There’s an argument to be made there about the surrounding talent level.  It’s hard to judge the worst of the worst, but it’s worth noting that five of the top 11 most-used players on Carolina’s offense last season graded out negatively according to Pro Football Focus: Byron Bell, Kelvin Benjamin, Jerricho Cotchery, Nate Chandler and Ed Dickson.

However, the rest of the blurb could have been written before preseason began.  Oher has been solid at left tackle throughout the preseason, and no one is saying Devin Funchess should be a tight end any more.  It’s an outdated set of preconceptions about the team.

That’s not to say the blurb is 100 percent wrong—Newton’s not quite in the top 10 quarterbacks in the league yet and needs to take another step forward this season.  Nor does he have the receivers most of the other good quarterbacks in the league have, leaving most of the work on his own shoulders.  Yes, the Panthers might finish third in the division, as they predict, but the analysis is out of date.

Panthers.com: Fantasy Football Preview

Because if you’re looking for unbiased fantasy advise, check the front page of the official team website.  Well, bias aside, let’s see what they have to say:

• Cam Newton is a “bona fide bargain” if you get him as the 12^th quarterback taken, as he is on NFL.com.  A bargain might be overstating it, but 3500 passing yards, 20-odd touchdowns and a handful more rushing touchdowns on the ground is worth a starting slot in most leagues.
• Jonathan Stewart was an “elite running back” over the last five games last season, but Panthers.com’s Bryan Strickland would only have him as a third running back, unless he fell later.  I disagree—I have Stewart pegged for somewhere between 800-900 yards, which should be well enough for a RB2 slot in most leagues.  Counting on him to be healthy all season long might be a reach, but I’d be more than satisfied with Stewart as my second back.
• They claim Greg Olsen belongs grouped with Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham as the top three tight ends—the only three worth picking early, or else waiting to the end of the draft to grab one.  Grouping Olsen with Gronkowski is probably a bit of wishful thinking, but grouping him with Graham makes a lot of sense—both are going to be primary targets on teams with questionable receiving corps and mobile quarterbacks.  I’d put Graham, Olsen and Travis Kelce in a second tier of tight ends, notably behind Gronk.

Latest Injury News

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Charles Tillman's concussion is the latest injury woe for Carolina.

The biggest recent news is Charles Tillman’s concussion.  Tillman suffered the concussion Friday against the Patriots, per the Charlotte Observer, and is still going through the concussion protocol.  He hasn’t practiced yet, and even if he is cleared between now and game time on Thursday, there’s probably no chance he plays—why risk the veteran in a meaningless game?  It’s more concerning because Tillman has missed so much time the past two seasons with injuries, albeit none of them concussion-related.

We also know Ryan Kalil will miss the game, thanks to his sprained knee.  He’s still on pace to play in Week 1 against Jacksonville, but there’s no need to rush him back this quickly.

According to the Black and Blue Review, the following players did not practice on Tuesday:

• Kalil
• Tillman
• Jerricho Cotchery (groin)
• Richie Brockel (shoulder)
• Brian Folkerts (ankle)
• Charles Johnson (trap/calf)
• Star Loutlelei (foot)

The only one of those players who was supposed to play was be Johnson.  He hasn’t played yet this preseason, and the Panthers staff would like to get him some game action before the regular season begins.  It’s a similar situation to Kawann Short, who missed the first three games with back spasms—normally, he would sit out the final preseason game, but it’s worth playing him to just get his feet wet before Jacksonville.  However, Johnson did not make the trip to Pittsburgh, per the Charlotte Observer, and thus will sit out the game.  

Other than that, expect any starter with so much as a hangnail to hang back in this one.

The Steelers have been dealing with a ton of injuries of their own.  Tackle Mike Adams, cornerback Senquez Golson and kickers Shaun Suisham and Garrett Hartley are all on either PUP or injured reserve.  Center Maurkice Pouncey fractured his ankle against Green Bay and will be sidelined until November.  Defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt has a bad sprained ankle and might not be ready for the season opener himself.  None of this is good news for the team.

The Steelers also plan to sit most of their starters, according to Mike Tomlin, so we’re talking mostly backups and reserves in this one.

Key Matchups

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Brandon Wegher is fighting for a roster spot.

Rather than talk about backup-on-backup action, let’s look at some intra-squad matchups.  After all, the most important part of this game is the competition for the final roster slots, so how the Panthers do compared to one another is more important than how they line up against Pittsburgh’s reserves.

QB Joe Webb vs. Versatility

Third quarterbacks are not a necessity in the NFL.  Last year, only 17 teams had three quarterbacks on their roster, and most of those were rookies or other developmental players whom the teams didn’t want to risk trying to pass to the practice squad.  It’s rare that you would ever need three quarterbacks in one game as it stands, and if Cam Newton did go down with an injury, the Panthers could sign a quarterback the next week to backup Derek Anderson and his newly-extended contract.

The Panthers did keep three quarterbacks on their roster last season, but that was in part due to Cam Newton’s health concerns—remember, he was banged up during preseason and missed Week 1.  Newton’s healthy now, so there’s not a need to keep Webb.  The question then becomes whether or not Webb is worth continuing to develop on the roster.

Keeping Webb would mean the Panthers couldn’t keep someone lower on the depth chart at another position—someone like tight end Brandon Williams or safety Dean Marlowe, both of whom are lurking at the bottom of the 53-man roster and could be cut.  Keeping Webb would mean one fewer roster spot for a player like that—someone who’s much more likely to actually see the field in some capacity this season than a third quarterback.

If the Panthers did cut Webb, Corey Brown would be the most likely emergency quarterback.  File that under “situations unlikely to ever happen.”

If Webb has another game with no completed passes, like he did against New England, he could easily be cut.

RB Jordan Todman vs. RB Brandon Wegher

The Panthers only kept four running backs on the opening day roster last year, and they have three or four locks already on the roster, between starters Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert, draft pick Cameron Artis-Payne and last year’s reliable training camp find, Fozzy Whittaker.  Five running backs aren’t out of the question at all, however, which brings us to Todman and Wegher.

As far as just being a running back goes, the undrafted Wegher has outperformed free-agent acquisition Todman this preseason.  Todman has a higher yards-per-carry average, with 12 carries for 62 yards, but Wegher’s average is limited by the fact that the end zone exists—he has the only two rushing touchdowns of the preseason for the Panthers.  Wegher’s also caught two passes for 47 yards and a touchdown, while Todman’s two receptions have totaled two yards.  Advantage: Wegher.

However, when you’re on the bottom of the roster, you need to perform on special teams as well, and that’s where Todman has an advantage.  He’s returned a couple kicks for an 18-yard average, while Wegher has just made a couple tackles on the coverage units and hasn’t really stood out.  Todman’s been a reliable kick returner for Jacksonville the last couple seasons, which is a valuable skillset.

This one’s a real tossup, and I could see the team going either way.  I don’t see them cutting Whittaker for either, as he’s proven against NFL starters.  My gut says Todman makes the roster and they try to pass Wegher along to the practice squad, but this race is very much wide open.

DE Rakim Cox vs. DT Kyle Love

There are only so many slots a team can devote to the defensive line.  Kony Ealy and Charles Johnson are locks at end, while Star Lotulelei, Kawann Short and Dwan Edwards aren’t going anywhere at defensive tackle.  Add in the most likely reserves in Mario Addison, Wes Horton and Colin Cole, and you begin to fill up a roster quite quickly.

Near the bottom of that roster, you begin to get players like Cox and Love.  Love’s a five-year veteran who came to Carolina late last season as a replacement for Micanor Regis.  He played in the postseason against Seattle and was in on a couple tackles.  Cox was an undrafted free agent in 2014 who was cut from the Vikings and Dolphins and sat out the entire 2014 season, before catching on at the Panthers rookie minicamp this last offseason.

Both players have played well this preseason.  Love started against Miami and had significant reps off the bench in the other two preseason games.  He only has a couple tackles on the stat sheet but has done a remarkably good job of clogging up the middle in run support.  Cox, meanwhile, was the superstar against Buffalo, recording a sack and two more quarterback pressures as part of his six total tackles.  While he hasn’t matched that performance since then, he hasn’t played poorly in the other two games—he’s an interesting prospect.

This might come down not to Cox and Love’s performance, but injuries.  If Lotulelei and Short’s injuries keep acting up, then maybe the Panthers feel they need to be deeper at defensive tackle and keep Love around.  If not, maybe the injury to Frank Alexander frees up a defensive end spot for Cox.  It’s important to note that Cox still has practice squad eligibility, so that could factor in here, too—Love could make the main roster, while the team keeps Cox around for developmental purposes.

X-Factors

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Corey Brown needs a bounce-back night.

Panthers X-Factor: Corey Brown

Corey Brown’s roster spot isn’t in serious jeopardy.  It’s unlikely someone like Mike Brown or Dameire Byrd would push Corey Brown off the roster—remember, he was listed as their starting receiver last week.  Still, Brown has not played well this preseason.

According to Pro Football Focus, Brown has been the worst Panther this preseason, putting up a -6.3 grade. 

He’s been targeted 11 times in the passing game and caught just one pass—in the third quarter against New England, he had a short five-yard reception.  He’s also dropped three passes, according to their metrics.  Only Sammie Coates in Pittsburgh has dropped more passes than that, and he’s had one more game in which to flash his butterfingers.  His drops also have come on 19 targets; Brown has the worst drop rate of anyone with more than two catchable passes thrown his way.

I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that that has to get better. 

Brown’s probably fallen to fourth on the depth chart with his butterfinger issues, with Jerricho Cotchery, Devin Funchess and Ted Ginn all passing him.  With Kelvin Benjamin’s injury, as well as the relative lack of depth at the position, there’s opportunity for Brown to make a significant impact this season, if he can just reach out and grab it—and hold onto it.  Look for him to play a significant amount of time against Pittsburgh.  Hopefully, Derek Anderson and Joe Webb get him the ball and he can start to bounce back from his preseason issues.

Steelers X-Factor: Michael Vick

Vick was just signed on August 27 after Bruce Gradkowski, the primary backup, went down with an injury.  He’s competing with Landry Jones for the Steelers’ primary backup quarterback job.

With just a few days of practice under his belt, Vick looked sharp against Buffalo, going 4-of-5 for 106 yards.  With another week to get the playbook under his belt, Vick might be the best option the Steelers have at quarterback in this game.

Vick’s NFL shelf-life is surely reaching its end.  The former first-overall pick enjoyed a brief renaissance with Philadelphia before cratering in 2012, and he hasn’t really recovered since.  He was released by the New York Jets this past offseason, and no one would sign him until this past week in Pittsburgh.  This is probably his last chance to keep his NFL career going.

To say that he’s motivated is probably an understatement.  We’ll get to see everything Vick has left in him in this game, and that can still be a challenging task to cover.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Panthers 13

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Michael Vick might pull out a victory in this one.

Final scores are meaningless in the preseason—and never so much more so than in the fourth preseason game.  Still, they keep score for a reason, so we might as well predict it.

It comes down to which team will be trying harder, for lack of a better word.  It’s not that any individual players won’t be trying hard, it’s a matter of which team is trying to figure out more important things, thus leaving better players in the game for a longer period of time.

The Steelers are still trying to figure out their backup quarterback situation, while the Panthers are trying to figure out if Joe Webb is worth keeping around.  That means the Steelers second-string quarterback in Michael Vick and their second-string offense will likely see more playing time than Derek Anderson and the Panthers second-stringers.

It says something that I’d consider Anderson versus Vick to be a wash, at best, at this point—Vick really has fallen.  However, even in 2015, I’d consider a Vick-led team to be better than a Joe Webb-led team, plus they have the home field advantage.  That’s enough for me to give Pittsburgh a slight edge in this one.

More important than that, however, will be making sure both teams end the game with no more serious injuries.  Both teams have had more than enough of that, so they’ll be happy to see this long preseason finally, mercifully end.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.