Fantasy Football 2015: Biggest Risers and Fallers from Training Camps

In usurping Montee Ball for top understudy duties on the Denver Broncos' depth chart, Ronnie Hillman's stock has jumped over three rounds the past seven days in ESPN's live draft results.

Having led the team in preseason rushing with 120 yards for a healthy 7.5 yards-per-carry clip thanks to some impressive big plays, Hillman is looking to build off a respectably efficient 2014 campaign in which he averaged 0.38 fantasy points per opportunity (fantasy points divided by carries plus passing routes), per Pro Football Focus.

ESPN.com's NFL Nation Broncos reporter Jeff Legwold recently reported on the telling depth chart shift:

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What Hillman has done in all of this is take the potential distribution of carries with, as Montee Ball put it in recent weeks, C.J. Anderson and Ball as “1-A and 1-B’’ and turn it upside down. Anderson still is clearly at the top of the team’s depth chart and expected to get the bulk of the carries, but Hillman has launched himself squarely into the conversation.

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Hillman has looked great on tape so far, and as the 55th running back off the board on average, he would cost you merely a roster spot for a worthy upside share of one of the league's top 10 offenses.

While some say the preseason is a waste, it remains a rare window for meaningful depth-chart movement, if not nothing else. Players can earn trust and touches this time of year, as Hillman appears to be doing.

Let's take a look at some of the more telling positive and negative average draft position shifts over the past week.

Strong Preseason Play Vaults Arizona's David Johnson in Fantasy Football

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Impressive size, speed and explosion metrics in addition to soft hands in the passing game should inspire fantasy investors to consider Arizona Cardinals rookie running back David Johnson.

Johnson's average draft position in ESPN live drafts has leaped three rounds over the past seven days, in part thanks to a brilliant second preseason game that included 81 yards from scrimmage on 15 touches from the Northern Iowa product. Johnson can be found going in the 12th round and later in redraft leagues. 

Does Chris Johnson have anything left? Being a street free agent into late August is rarely encouraging. Nor is the tape from Johnson's 2014.

Incumbent lead back Andre Ellington bears the highest injury risk among tailbacks, according to Sports Injury Predictor, which cites a 90 percent likelihood that he'll miss some time this season.

It's unclear if Johnson can really take the reins of this offense as a rookie, but I'd bet he at least gets a shot this season. 

Danny Woodhead One of Several Running Back ADP Risers

Denis Poroy/Associated Press

Danny Woodhead's price has jumped over two rounds, 23 picks to be exact, over the past two weeks in ESPN live-draft results.

Even with this recent spike in attention, in part thanks to a highly efficient one-touch, one-touchdown performance in the San Diego Chargers' recent preseason outing. If anything, it just reminded the market that Woodhead remains a trusted factor with the first-team offense.

Combine a strong share of third-down duties and a production pedigree that includes posting the 12th-most PPR fantasy points at the position in 2013, and it's scary to think he's going as the 40th tailback in drafts on average.  

Woodhead finished 23rd among NFL backs in yards from scrimmage in 2013. Investors in Melvin Gordon who don't seek shares of Woodhead in PPR formats might just be netting the second-most productive Bolts' fantasy back this year.

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Arian Foster's groin has a continually updated news feed on Bleacher Report that proves quite helpful for keeping tabs on the recovery of fantasy's most interesting man heading into the new season. Third in PPR points per game last season among backs, Foster would have been a first-round regular and at worst a mid-second-round commodity had he not been injured. 

Foster's stock has jumped two rounds in the past two weeks, suggesting the market is warming up to the idea of an early return. Even if he returns by Week 6, netting profit with Foster even in the sixth round won't prove difficult if he really can return to feature-back duties. He's currently going 34th among backs in the seventh to eighth round on average. 

Rising Receiver: Davante Adams Is Shooting Up Draft Boards

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

One of the hottest questions in fantasy football in the midst of draft season is: When should investors pay for Davante Adams?

The market is gobbling up shares in the wake of an injury-induced promotion to the No. 2 wideout spot on the Green Bay Packers' prolific passing offense. Some believe Adams is prepared to vault into offensive stardom, while an inefficient 2014 fuels some doubts over his statistical ceiling. 

Adams' average draft position has spiked 70 picks over the past seven days in ESPN live draft results, as he ascends toward the top 20 at the position (he's currently going 21st among receivers). With Aaron Rodgers leading the way, Adams is legitimately poised to return fourth- or fifth-round value in PPR formats. 

Martavis Bryant's Suspension Spikes Markus Wheaton's Stock

Don Wright/Associated Press

Markus Wheaton got a shot at meaningful snaps last season and simply didn't produce. Despite receiving ample playing time, Wheaton averaged fewer than five fantasy points per game. 

Wheaton's fantasy outlook in the wake of Martavis Bryant's suspension is now a real point of interest. If you don't believe in the talent or the potential in Wheaton's case, even though Ben Roethlisberger does, I understand and might even trend on that side—especially as we see Wheaton's stock spike dramatically over the coming days.

Wheaton's price has jumped four rounds in the past week in ESPN live draft results, with an average draft price currently in the 12th and 13th rounds. This price is acceptable in what is poised to be the league's third to fourth pass-happiest offense.

Yet if Wheaton's stock ever reaches single-digit rounds, I'd avoid investing given Bryant's eventual return and inherent doubts over Wheaton's own outcome spectrum.

Falling Fantasy Stock for Montee Ball and Darren McFadden

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

It's a familiar photo: Darren McFadden getting stopped at the line of scrimmage. Fantasy investors are also stopping McFadden in the draft room, it seems, as he's dropped in ESPN live draft results to the tune of nearly two rounds over the past seven days.

With talk of a committee backfield, even behind an imposing offensive line for the Dallas Cowboys, shares of the Dallas backfield are somewhat scattered these days. I don't have any shares of McFadden this offseason, and good luck to those who do. 

Montee Ball's already-deflated stock is falling as Ronnie Hillman is rising, leaving the former Wisconsin star on the fantasy fringe once again.

Strangely, Tevin Coleman's stock is down over the past week on ESPN's marketplace, even as he nears a return to action this weekend. I would trend the other way and gain shares of Coleman as the market is unsure given a murky depth chart in Atlanta. 

Given how influential Week 3 of the preseason can prove with regard to depth-chart ramifications, we'll be sure to produce an updated draft stock report after this next round of preseason action.