6 Predictions for the 2015 MLB Waiver-Trade Window
The days leading up to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline are consistently some of the most exciting Major League Baseball has to offer, and this year did not disappoint.
However, just because the non-waiver period has passed does not mean we can’t get our trade fix. August is the revocable waiver period, meaning teams have until the end of the month to try to pass a player through all 29 teams, which would make him eligible to be traded anywhere. If a player is claimed, his team can call him back, making him ineligible to be traded. The player can also be traded or outright released to the claiming club, which usually means that team takes on an undesirable contract the original team is trying to shed.
Teams will place several players on waivers, and every year we learn of big-name players being placed on the wire, typically only to be called back to the original club as if nothing ever happened. Those headlines are a given every year.
Just because the excitement is lessened and the rumors are fewer this month does not mean significant happenings won’t go down. The biggest August blockbuster trade happened three years ago when the Los Angeles Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto from the Boston Red Sox, who desperately wanted to dump salary.
Here are some predictions on what this year might hold.
Rockies Will Call Back Carlos Gonzalez After He’s Claimed
1 of 6
Carlos Gonzalez completely changed the trade market for himself by going ballistic in July. He hit .386/.438/.841 with a 1.278 OPS and 11 home runs in 23 games, good for a ridiculous .247 adjusted OPS.
Those numbers created interest in the left fielder, but it also caused the Rockies to ask for plenty in return. According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, the team’s asking price was “sky high” before the non-waiver deadline. That is not likely to change this month, and that makes him a safe claim for another team.
But putting Gonzalez on waivers would be more of a barometer for the offseason. The Rockies, having already traded face-of-the-franchise Troy Tulowitzki, are willing to move Gonzalez, 29, and the $37 million owed to him over the next two years, so this waiver situation will be a way for them to gauge the level of interest from other teams.
That might lay the groundwork for a winter blockbuster, as some team will hope Gonzalez’s home-road splits aren’t as bad as they appear on paper—he has a career .983 OPS at Coors Field and .755 everywhere else—and that he can stay healthy long enough to be a major contributor for them in 2016 and 2017.
Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez Slide Right Through Waivers
2 of 6
Pablo Sandoval’s five-year, $95 million contract is looking like the biggest mistake of the last offseason now that he does not seem to care much about his weight, is playing the worst defense of his career and is on his way to his worst season ever.
That trio of things, along with the money still owed to him, will make it easy for Sandoval to slip through the waiver wire as if he were greased up on a Slip ‘N Slide, no matter how much the Red Sox wish he wouldn’t.
The same can be said for Hanley Ramirez. He signed a four-year, $88 million deal with Boston, but he has been a disaster in left field and has hit like a middle-of-the-order bat on an inconsistent basis. He is also a big-time injury risk—he tweaked his knee Monday—and nobody wants to give that kind of player the $66 million he’s owed over the next three years.
Once Ramirez clears, the Red Sox could opt to eat a good portion of his deal to move him. When healthy, Ramirez can still be an elite kind of hitter as he showed in April—.999 OPS, 10 homers—and June—.338/.377/.479, .855 OPS—and that could draw interest from a contender willing to take on some of his money.
Chase Utley Traded to Angels
3 of 6
The Philadelphia Phillies’ rebuild is in full force, and their former cornerstone second baseman could be next to go as the team parts with its aging stars.
Chase Utley is on the disabled list with an ankle injury, but he went 2-for-3 with a walk in his first rehab game Sunday, and he should be back with the Phillies momentarily. Once he is, the Phillies will put him on waivers almost immediately since GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has already endorsed Cesar Hernandez over Utley at second base. That is why teams like the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Angels have been monitoring Utley’s progress.
“That might be more of an August thing for us,” Cubs president Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times, speaking generally about adding a bat. “If the need is there and the opportunity presents itself, we’re always open to a position player.”
Wittenmyer calls a deal with the Cubs a “long shot at this point,” which means he could get all the way to the Angels on waivers. That is a team with a need at second base and in the lineup, and a healthy Utley could provide solutions to both problems. Utley is also from Long Beach, California, so getting him to sign off on the trade—he has a no-trade clause—to the contending Angels probably wouldn’t be a difficult sell.
The Angels could also hold a club option on the 36-year-old Utley, who can become a free agent after the season, because he is not going to vest his option for next season by reaching 500 plate appearances. That could mean he is more than just a brief rental if the club wants to retain him.
.png?w=256)
Brandon Phillips Moves to the Bronx
4 of 6
Considering Brandon Phillips has been on the decline since 2011 and has $27 million owed to him for the next two years, it might be tough to imagine him being traded. But he is likely to clear waivers, and that would open the door for the New York Yankees to work something out with the Cincinnati Reds, who already traded ace Johnny Cueto and had discussions about right fielder Jay Bruce and closer Aroldis Chapman before the non-waiver deadline.
The Reds would have to eat some of Phillips’ money, and the Yankees are obviously rich enough to absorb what would be left. They also have a serious need at second base, and Phillips, despite having an 89 OPS-plus, is still an elite defender and has already been worth more than two wins, according to Baseball-Reference’s WAR calculations.
The Yankees have used five players at second base this season, and they’ve combined to hit .211/.266/.386 with one stolen base. Phillips went into Monday hitting .279/.316/.373 with 14 steals in 15 attempts. For little more than salary relief, the Yankees could get themselves an upgrade at the position for the next couple of years.
The Reds are motivated to move Phillips, according to CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman, so they might be willing to move mountains (i.e., eat some money) to unload him to the Yankees.
James Shields Clears Before Being Dealt
5 of 6
There is no way a team makes a claim on the former ace, risking the San Diego Padres sticking them with what is shaping up to be an awful contract.
The Padres signed James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal as part of their offseason remodel. Since then, he’s mostly disappointed with a 3.74 ERA, 21 home runs allowed in an extreme pitcher’s park—he allowed 23 all of last year and 20 in 2013—and a 95 ERA-plus.
And the worst number of all: Shields is owed $65 million over the next three years. All of that is why an executive told Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal that the deal already is “underwater” and the Padres are not likely to get much in return.
Working in the Padres’ favor is that Shields has a 2.35 ERA in his last four starts (23 innings), so they could sell him as a guy returning to form just in time for the home stretch. If they are willing to eat some of his salary for the remainder of this year and part of next year, he could be appealing to a contender like the Los Angeles Angels or Pittsburgh Pirates, teams looking for rotation help.
There is also this nugget: Shields can opt out of his deal after next season. So if he performs well in 2016, the acquiring team would be off the hook for the final two years if he opts out.
Francisco Rodriguez Claimed and Traded
6 of 6
K-Rod would have likely been traded by now if his contract did not spike from $3.5 million this season to $7.5 in 2016. Regardless of the cost, Rodriguez has been dominant this season, and very good since returning to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2014.
He has produced a 1.46 ERA, 0.811 WHIP, a 2.24 FIP, 10.2 strikeouts per nine and a career-best 4.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 37 innings this year. If that is the kind of production he gives a team for the rest of the season and next, that $7.5 million is not an absurd amount of money to pay a quality back-end reliever.
There are several contenders who could use that kind of arm, with the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers among them. The Yankees and Astros were in the market for bullpen help at the non-waiver deadline, but things did not work out for either team. K-Rod in August could provide the answer.
Using the formula the Kansas City Royals rode through the postseason last year—decent starting pitching and a dominant back of the bullpen—any of those teams could claim Rodriguez and solidify their relief corps.
.png?w=480)
