Fantasy Baseball 2015: 1 Breakout Player at Each Position for the 2nd Half

The 2015 All-Star break may be baseball’s midway point, but in fantasy baseball, it means you have about one month-and-a-half left to make a push for the postseason.

First-half standouts can easily become second-half duds. Conversely, the post-All-Star break portion of the season may be when the underperforming early draft pick finally proves his worth.

Chances are your lineup has at least one or two holes in it, so let’s take a look at 10 players (one per position plus a utility bat) who should give your lineup that extra something it needs.

Some positions are obviously more valuable than others, and there are often stark differences between points league rankings and roto rankings. To make this article as all-inclusive as possible, we discuss a little bit of everything.

Each player is the most likely candidate to break out and provide your team with a difference-maker. The cost to acquire him and expected return on your investment are why these players made the list.

Let’s get to the list.

Catcher: Kyle Schwarber, Cubs

Catcher is always one of the most disappointing positions in fantasy. Unless you invested in one of the elites, chances are you’re struggling at the position. The good news is that a lot of other people are probably struggling there too.

Kyle Schwarber just got recalled by the Cubs Thursday night and is expected to fill in for the injured Miguel Montero behind the plate. Although his sample size at the big league level is limited to the six games he played in earlier this season, he comes with a solid pedigree.

Schwarber is rated as the Cubs No. 2 prospect by MLB.com and comes with an above-average 60 hit and 65 power tool. As a point of reference, Schwarber’s hit tool was graded by MLB.com to be higher than teammate Kris Bryant (55), and his power tool grades higher than Dodgers’ slugger Joc Pederson (55).

That doesn’t mean Schwarber is going to hit better than those two. In fact, he’ll probably struggle a bit at the plate. Young catchers tend to struggle with the bat while learning how to play behind the plate at the big league level.

Schwarber did put up solid numbers in his six-game cup of coffee earlier this year, hitting .364 with a home run in 23 at-bats. He shouldn’t be expected to put up numbers like that all season, obviously, but it won’t take much to make him a must-start at catcher.

Schwarber could be a borderline top-five catcher. The only question is what happens to him when Montero comes back. If he moves to the outfield, he could be even more valuable.

Because of his recent call-up, he’s still available in more than three-quarters of leagues, so scoop him up as soon as possible.

First Base: Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays

It’s hard to say that someone who hit 18 home runs struggled in the first half, but in comparison to other first basemen, Encarnacion did just that.

Those 18 taters rank him seventh among the position, so in roto leagues he has at least provided pop. But his .233 average and just 71 hits are killing his overall value.

The 71 hits place him 23rd among all first base-eligible players. The average is obviously ugly for your roto squad, but Encarnacion is better in points because he strikes out less often than his first-base counterparts.

He has just the 16th-most strikeouts among first basemen (64) with a strikeout percentage of 18 percent. As a comparison, Freddie Freeman, who is hitting a robust .299, strikes out 22.3 percent of the time.

Giving Encarnacion further hope is his .231 BABIP. Home run hitters typically have a lower BABIP than most players, but even .231 is pretty unlucky.

Mark Teixeira, for example, who has been largely home run or bust this year, has a BABIP of .220. Prince Fielder, who’s hitting .339 with 14 homers, has a BABIP of .350.

Combine Encarnacion’s low strikeout rate with his unlucky-to-date BABIP and immense power, and he’s a candidate to break out in a major way in the second half.

Second Base: Anthony Rendon, Nationals

There probably hasn’t been a more frustrating player to own in fantasy this year than Anthony Rendon. An injured oblique caused him to drop on draft day and miss the first 53 games of the season.

Then, after just 18 games back, an injured quad sidelined him.

So why is Rendon the best candidate here over other second basemen?

Because he broke out in a major way last season. With a .287 average and 21 home runs, he easily ranked as a top-tier middle infielder and was a borderline first-round pick this year. Rendon was always an injury concern in the minors, but until this year he had avoided major time on the disabled list at the MLB level.

He could be an excellent buy-low candidate. If the Rendon owner in your league is frustrated by the injuries this year, you might get him for fairly cheap, especially if that team is gunning for a playoff spot.

Buying into Rendon probably only makes sense if you’re on the fringe of making it into the playoffs. If you’re the top team in your league, gambling on his coming back fully healthy to provide top-tier numbers probably isn’t worth the risk.

If you’re a middling team, the difference between Rendon and whomever you have patrolling your second base or middle infield spot could be the difference between sneaking in or not.

Third Base: Carlos Santana, Indians

He hasn’t actually played third base this season, but position eligibility rules (at least on ESPN) give him some added value. What don’t give him value are his terrible .221 average and middle-of-the-pack 10 home runs.

But we saw this from Santana last year. He hit a putrid .207 before the break and a useful .260 afterward.

Third base is fairly deep this year, so for Santana to end up being a difference-maker at the position, he’s going to need to turn it on soon.

Well, in his last seven games leading up to the break, he hit .391. That’s obviously a small sample size, but it did raise his season average by 15 points.

Santana is owned in over 85 percent of ESPN leagues, so it might require a slight investment to get him on your roster. If you’re willing to take a risk, he could offer you a smooth .250-.270 average with 10-15 home runs the rest of the way.

Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, Royals

Shortstop is the weakest position in fantasy. It’s ugly out there.

Coming into the season, Alcides Escobar was thought to be a sure thing to give you 25-30 stolen bases with a decent average and solid run total. So far, he’s given you five stolen bases.

Thanks to shallowness of shortstop and to Royals fans, Escobar was an All-Star. He also ranks inside the top 10 at shortstop but could be a sneaky option to give you even more. His two net stolen bases are obviously not the boon you expected when you likely drafted him in the late rounds, but he is at least hitting .290.

In fact, Escobar has been red hot since the Fourth of July, hitting .400 with 10 runs and five multi-hit games.

According to ESPN, he is owned in about three-quarters of leagues. He shouldn’t really be considered a trade target, but if he’s out in free agency in your league, he could be worth a speculative add in hopes the speed returns.

Outfielder: Denard Span, Nationals

When he’s healthy, Span is one of the most underrated outfielders in fantasy. The problem this year has been health.

Surgery on a core muscle early in the season and back spasms lately have forced him to miss 28 games. But according to Nationals manager Matt Williams, Span’s time on the disabled list may be coming to a close soon.

"The results of the MRI and the specialist he saw finds nothing alarming, which is good,” Williams told MASN’s Byron Kerr. “Hopefully in 15 days he’ll be back.”

When Span is on the field, he’s a contributor almost across the board. He’s kind of like Hunter Pence, doing nothing spectacularly but everything well enough to help you out everywhere.

Although it’s difficult to compare Span’s stats to other players because he’s missed so much time, we can tell his value by looking exclusively at his points-per-game average.

Outfielder	Average Fantasy Points Per Game
1. Bryce Harper	3.9
2. Mike Trout	3.3
3. Jose Bautista	3.2
4. Giancarlo Stanton	3.1
5. Lorenzo Cain	2.9
5. Andrew McCutchen	2.9
5. Brett Gardner	2.9
5. Michael Brantley	2.9
5. Denard Span	2.9

Span’s per-game average puts him in a six-way tie for fifth, with 2.9 points per game. For more context, that puts him ahead of players like Adam Jones (2.7), Ryan Braun (2.7), Nelson Cruz (2.6) and Carlos Gomez (2.5).

With the latest injury, Span’s ESPN ownership has dropped to less than 65 percent. If he’s available in your league, scoop him up. If not, he may be worth adding via trade.

Outfielder: Justin Upton, Padres

Upton continues to be predictable. Start hot—go Antarctic cold—get hot again.

Let’s take a look at Upton’s monthly splits over the last few seasons.

Year	March/April	May	June	July	August	September/October
2013	.298	.211	.226	.292	.298	.260
2014	.326	.277	.226	.319	.291	.169
2015	.259	.343	.196	.118	TBD	TBD

What lies ahead for Upton looks obvious if recent history tells us anything. He’s almost universally owned, so you’re going to have to trade for him. But if you can get the owner who’s frustrated with his .222 average, two home runs and 13 RBI in his last 43 games to give you a deal, Upton might make the difference for you the rest of the way.

Outfielder: Billy Hamilton, Reds

A .220 average for a leadoff hitter is horrific. That’s probably why the Reds dropped Billy Hamilton from that spot in the middle of May.

Since then, he has hit just .228, but he’s managed to steal 27 bases. Imagine if he starts getting on base more.

Well, that’s sort of the point.

Hamilton, and speedsters like him, should have a slightly higher-than-average BABIP since fewer of their hits leave the yard and they’re able to leg out more infield singles.

But Hamilton has faced bad BABIP luck, with just a .252 mark so far.

Even a moderate correction of his BABIP could have significant results. He already has 44 stolen bases with just a .269 on-base percentage.

If more of those balls in play start to become hits, Hamilton could be an absolute difference-maker, especially in roto leagues.

Utility: Joey Gallo, Rangers

This is a completely speculative pick, as Gallo is in Triple-A and hitting a horrible .186 with 14 strikeouts in 43 at-bats.

But his power is something to dream on, and Josh Hamilton isn’t exactly the picture of health in left field for the Rangers. In other words, if Adrian Beltre or Hamilton goes down with injury again, Gallo could get the call back to Arlington.

Gallo is such a unique player that he even has a stat named after him. The term “The Gallo”—of unknown origin but heard on the CBS Fantasy Baseball podcast—refers to going 1-4 at the plate, with one home run and three strikeouts.

Obviously, a player like that is more valuable in roto leagues and any league that doesn’t count strikeouts against you. The good news is that Gallo is owned in less than 15 percent of leagues, so he’s probably a cheap investment.

At the very least, he could be used as a trade chip if/when he does get recalled. Roster spots are valuable in their own right, but Gallo could be a difference-maker with his gargantuan power.

Pitcher: Ken Giles, Phillies

You’ve probably heard his name before as a speculative closing option for the Phillies. Last season, Giles was widely expected to become the closer after Philadelphia traded away Jonathan Papelbon.

Inexplicably, that didn’t happen.

This year is different. The Phillies are under immense fan pressure to make something happen. They are the worst team in the league by a mile.

According to ESPN, Papelbon has demanded a trade from Philly, and it would come as a shock if he isn’t granted that request before the deadline. But what value does the closer on the worst team in baseball really hold?

Well, even if he’s not getting you saves, Giles has an impressive ERA of 1.86 and an elite rate of 11.41 strikeouts per nine innings. The Phillies could be even worse after the deadline if they’re able to trade some of their valuable pieces away, but Giles should still provide a decent number of saves to go along with his excellent peripherals.

He’s most definitely worth a speculative add in leagues where saves are hard to come by on the waiver wire. If there are a decent number of options available, you may be able to wait until Papelbon is actually traded.

All stats and info courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Fantasy statistics courtesy of ESPN.

Follow Aaron Brand on Twitter @AaronBrand47