Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 15's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice
Back to work. The MLB season resumes on Friday, leaving fantasy baseball players precious time to execute a second-half trade.
Depending on the league's deadline, most managers have 2-4 weeks before the trading period closes. After spending the four-day break agonizing over roster deficiencies, gamers are anxious for change.
Although really just a mini-vacation, the break represents a fresh start. It also froze everyone's numbers for a few days, causing managers to fixate over those stagnated stats. Capitalize on the All-Star break by buying or selling these players.
Buy Low: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Cole Hamels isn't doing the Philadelphia Phillies any favors. During his last start before the break, the ace and likely trade chip surrendered nine runs to the San Francisco Giants, bloating his ERA to 3.63. Like many MLB general mangers at the moment, fantasy GMs should test the waters for the lefty.
A couple of red flags may cause owners to fear a Hamels deal. Although he pitches in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, he holds a 2.33 home ERA compared to a 4.74 clip on the road. He'd also be better off staying in the National League, where the 31-year-old can avoid designated hitters and a 4.73 career interleague ERA.
Both disclaimers aside, getting away from Philadelphia will behoove Hamels. While wins are unpredictable, it would hardly be a surprise to see him squeeze out an underwhelming five victories behind an anemic offense.
Yet it's the defense he especially needs to escape. Based on defensive runs saved (DRS), the Phillies have cost their pitchers an MLB-worst 76 runs on the field—the Chicago White Sox rank No. 29 at minus-43. A better supporting cast will offset any ill effects of potentially moving to the American League.
Sell High: Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Since Mike Trout's homer in the All-Star Game doesn't actually count, Zack Greinke hasn't allowed a run since June 13. Tossing five straight scoreless gems before the All-Star Game, he sports an MLB-best 1.39 ERA, the lowest mark entering the break since 1968, per ESPN Stats & Info.
These are all good things. Really good. They're also entirely unsustainable for anyone on the planet, especially someone with 7.74 strikeouts per nine innings.
A lot needs to work in anyone's favor to enjoy such a run drought. Only Chris Young has registered a lower batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than Greinke's .233, and his 89.5 percent strand rate leads all qualified starters.
This is another case of only selling if successfully selling to the moon. His 11.3 swinging-strike percentage, 0.3 percent lower than last year's clip while posting a 9.21 K/9, indicate a potential second-half uptick. Yet it will come with ERA regression, similar to Michael Wacha's promising return to the mean.
Even if he pitches to his 2.65 fielding independent pitching (FIP), he's an ace. He may even fall into more victories if a strong Los Angeles Dodgers lineup stops napping during his starts. But if someone sees his ERA and thinks superstar, don't be afraid to seek out a U-Haul return.
Buy Low: Ben Zobrist, 2B/SS/OF, Oakland Athletics
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Someone less stubborn would probably accept Ben Zobrist's real-life value not translating over to a five-by-five rotisserie league. If not an unheralded sabermetric star for years, he wouldn't receive much love while hitting .261 with five homers and one stolen base.
Yet the 34-year-old infielder has generated more walks (28) than strikeouts (22) while brandishing a .775 OPS, ninth among shortstop-eligible players with at least 200 at-bats. Since returning from the disabled list on May 26, he's batting .269/.360/.438.
Even with fading power and speed, that's not too shabby for a second baseman and/or shortstop. The reeling Oakland Athletics are also likely to trade the veteran, whose flexibility makes him a welcome fit for any contender. If he gets lucky, maybe he'll move to a better ballpark or play for a manger with an aggressive green light on the basepaths.
Zobrist shouldn't cost much due to his tame fantasy numbers, and the uncertainty of where he'll spend the final two months could scare owners. Maybe he gets stuck on the New York Mets, but his value would skyrocket with the New York Yankees.
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Sell High: Mitch Moreland, 1B, Texas Rangers
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When Mitch Moreland started raking, he drew attention as a nice add to ride while hot. He has since evolved into much more, hitting .286/.333/.532 with 16 home runs and 46 RBI through 68 games.
He's a great free-agent find, but there's a reason the 29-year-old first baseman remained widely available before busting out. Since arriving in 2010, he's a career .257 hitter who only once exceeded 20 homers in a season. Now he's on pace to top 30 deep flies despite missing two weeks in late April-early May.
He's done so with a 35.6 fly-ball percentage, slightly below his career norms. That means 23.6 percent of his flyers have cleared the fences to fund his sizzling start. Oddly enough, 11 have come outside of Arlington.
Moreland also carries a 22.0 strikeout percentage and career-low 5.9 walk percentage, so don't bank on him hitting .286 after the break. While he maneuvered his way into the mixed-league discussion a while ago, he has now garnered enough cache to mortgage on the trade market.
Buy Low: Ryan Zimmerman, 1B/3B/OF, Washington Nationals
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If returning healthy from plantar fasciitis that has sidelined him since June 9 isn't enough to worry about, Ryan Zimmerman must also redeem his .209/.265/.346 slash line before landing on the shelf.
First, let's just worry about getting the 30-year-old back on the field. According to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, the Washington Nationals are hoping to start Zimmerman's rehab stint after the minor league All-Star break.
"It depends on how he comes through the next few days," manager Matt Williams told Ladson. "But he feels good. I know that. It's a good sign. The walking and the jogging, he is putting a little more stress on it now. He feels a lot better."
Once he returns, the newly minted first baseman will recover with the help of a BABIP that torpedoed all the way to .228, especially if a healthy foot enables him to square up and make harder contact. Also working in his favor, he's a career .302/.367/.502 second-half hitter with multiposition eligibility.
There's also the matter of Clint Robinson warming up to first base, but he can slide over to left field with Jayson Werth and Denard Span also sidelined. If the full house returns, Zimmerman will get every chance to nail down his spot.
Sell High: Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians
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A year removed from recording a .330 slugging percentage, Jason Kipnis is hitting .323/.401/.487. The Cleveland Indians second baseman had to settle for reserve duty at the All-Star Game despite ranking third in WAR behind Bryce Harper and Mike Trout.
All drafters who gambled on a rebound hit the jackpot. Rather than stay at the table, cash out to avoid losing some of those gains.
The career .272 hitter has benefited from a .369 BABIP. Not all of that is luck, as he's boasting a career-low 14.6 strikeout percentage and personal-high 28.1 line-drive percentage. Yet batting average fluctuates far too frequently to trust a .323 mark from anyone, whether it's Kipnis or Joe Mauer in his prime.
While formerly chased for elite power and speed, he morphed into fantasy superstardom due to his lofty average. Take that away, and he's left with six homers and 10 steals. Due to his more balanced approach, the 28-year-old has generated a career-low 24.7 fly-ball percentage, meaning owners can't count on any more than another six long balls.
Kipnis is already starting to cool off, hitting .174 through 12 July contests. He will need to run much more to remain baseball's new No. 1 fantasy second baseman.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
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