Bleacher Report's 2015 MLB Trade Season Preview and Predictions
So how do you like your trade rumors? Sunny-side up? Scrambled? Poached?
Welcome to our Free-Range MLB Trade Deadline Spectacular, all the buzz that's fit to print with baseball's annual midsummer trade classic about to go Full Monty. Those aren't just wasps buzzing your ears, you know.
It's still early, granted, and the market is still forming, definitely.
"I've had a few teams ask me generally what we're doing, but not specifically," one source told Bleacher Report the other day. "I think with the second wild card, more teams are waiting until the last minute."
B/R checked in with some two dozen industry insiders over the past couple of weeks—executives, scouts, managers, coaches—and while talks are mostly still general, here's where the conversations are as July heats up.
The Team That Needs to Step Up
For the love of Joe Carter, it is time for the Toronto Blue Jays to floor it and run a few caution (or maybe even red) lights this month. The Jays have scored more runs than anybody in the majors. If they get some pitching, they can win the AL East.
The Jays need both starting and relief help, and general manager Alex Anthopoulos is on the case, admitting to Sportsnet 590 The Fan (h/t Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith) last week that the club needs "upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen, that goes without saying."
Johnny Cueto of the Reds, Scott Kazmir of the Athletics, Dan Haren or Mat Latos of the Marlins, Kyle Lohse or Matt Garza of the Brewers…if Toronto doesn't add pitching in July, it will be the worst abomination to emerge from Canada since Celine Dion.
Heading into Monday, the Jays rotation ranked 14th in the American League with a 4.58 ERA, while the bullpen was seventh with a 3.58 ERA.
"I'd love to land both," Anthopoulos told the radio network. "What we come away with or don't come away with, I have no idea. Clearly, we're looking to be active."
Now is the time. Last winter's free-agent signing of catcher Russell Martin was enormous. Toronto in recent years has had great difficulty convincing free agents to play in Canada. Anthopoulos struck gold in acquiring Josh Donaldson last November, who arguably has been the AL MVP in the first half.
At 21 years and counting, the Blue Jays currently are mired in the longest playoff drought of any team in the four major North American sports. It can end now, with July pitching help.
Cole Hamels Is Still Waiting
If you're like us, you are more tired of this storyline than you are of receiving telemarketing calls on your home phone. Memo to Ruben Amaro Jr.: IF YOU TRADE THIS GUY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE WILL BUY YOU A YEAR'S SUPPLY OF CHEESESTEAKS! OR TWO YEARS! JUST PULL THE TRIGGER ALREADY! From sources familiar with the Phillies' thinking, as well as the trade market in general, here is our latest handicapping of places Hamels is most likely to go (be advised, as one scout says, it changes daily):
1. Los Angeles Dodgers.
2. Texas Rangers.
3. New York Yankees.
Will the Phillies Ever Trade Anybody?
Last week, my home wireless router crapped out. For two days, until a replacement arrived, it was like living in prehistoric times. Or, I'm thinking, like living in the Phillies' executive offices as the team flatlined and inertia reigned.
Take heart, Phillies fans. Hiring Andy MacPhail as club president is the best thing to happen to the Phillies in at least the last two or three years. Now, while he observes and Hall of Fame executive Pat Gillick continues consulting and, presumably, the two of them dog-pile Amaro Jr. to force him to do something, Hamels and closer Jonathan Papelbon both should go. There is interest in outfielder Ben Revere. If the Phillies kick in enough cash, they should be able to unload Ryan Howard. Starter Aaron Harang was a strong candidate to be traded, too, before he landed on the disabled list the other day with plantar fasciitis.
Hamels has roughly $11 million remaining on his contract this year, is guaranteed $76.5 million through 2018 and owns a limited no-trade clause. Among the clubs he can be dealt to without his consent: the Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Cubs, Yankees, Rangers, Cardinals, Braves and Nationals.
Papelbon could be a great get in Toronto or Houston.
Cincinnati, the All-Star Game and the Future
Though Reds general manager Walt Jocketty has been coy about his club's plans, the overwhelming thought in the industry is that Cincinnati will deal, and the timing is directly related to next week's All-Star Game.
The last thing the Reds want to do, many believe, is welcome Cueto back to town in a Yankees uniform and cause Cincinnati fans to be in an ugly mood when the midsummer spectacular arrives in town.
Cueto is a free agent after this season, he was already on the disabled list once this summer with a cranky elbow and his start last week was pushed back one day. The industry's favorite guessing game this side of Pablo Sandoval's weight is whether Cueto's elbow is damaged goods. B/R colleague Danny Knobler wrote about it last week.
An under-the-radar starter who is expected to be dealt is right-hander Mike Leake, who, like Cueto, is eligible for free agency this winter. One person close to the Yankees thinks that's where Leake will land.
Meantime, there are those in the industry who believe the Reds also are ready to deal closer Aroldis Chapman, who is under club control through 2016. Outfielders Jay Bruce and Marlon Byrd are attracting attention, too.
The Astros and the Mountain
Sure, George Springer is out with a broken wrist (enormous loss), but Houston laid an impressive sweep on Kansas City last week and screeched into the weekend at 14 games over .500. That is a huge amount of collateral to withstand the loss of Springer and other tough times. These guys are here for good. Expect them to add a starting pitcher in July, and Houston native Scott Kazmir, currently toiling for the out-of-it A's, would be a terrific fit.
Why Johnny Cueto to Houston Would Be an Upset
Before he became Cincinnati's GM, Jocketty, you might recall, ran the St. Louis Cardinals. Then they hired Jeff Luhnow (that name keeps popping up, doesn't it?), the two clashed and, eventually, the Cardinals stunningly fired Jocketty. The only way Jocketty and Luhnow consummate a trade is if their assistants handle it, and each of them thinks that particular deal will fleece the other.
A Mets-Cubs Deal That Makes Sense
The Cubs need pitching. The Mets need bats (in the name of Rusty Staub, do they ever) and are Little League-weak at shortstop. Being that Addison Russell is the shortstop of the Cubs' future, Chicago could send Starlin Castro to the Mets for Dillon Gee or Jon Niese, plus prospects. With Steven Matz joining Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon, the Mets have strength in numbers on the mound.
A Mets-Rockies Deal That Makes Sense
Troy Tulowitzki to Queens? It's made sense for more than a year. The Mets need a shortstop more than Donald Trump needs a new hairpiece. Colorado needs serious reconfiguration. Your move, Mets.
So, Seriously, Hamels and the Dodgers?
No way the Dodgers give up prospects Corey Seager or Julio Urias, but there is enough in the Los Angeles system to get a deal done. And with a $272 million payroll, a record for a North American team sport, yes, the Dodgers can afford Hamels. Several industry sources expect them to land a starting pitcher, whether it's Hamels or someone else, given that fall-off in the rotation after Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Plus, remember, Greinke can opt out of his $147 million deal after this season—and he is expected to. So Hamels, under club control through 2018, would provide insurance against Greinke's looming departure, much the same way David Price did for Max Scherzer when the Tigers acquired Price last July and then watched Scherzer walk as a free agent last winter.
Will the Yankees Acquire A Doodle Dandy?
The Yanks are being stealthy about their midseason plans, publicly saying they are buoyed by the recent return of Ivan Nova and are confident that a couple of prospects, Luis Severino in particular, could help in the second half. But the AL East is so mediocre this summer that they can't sit idle this month and stay with internal options. How would they look their fans (or the ghost of George Steinbrenner) in the face? Somewhere in the range from Hamels to Leake, expect the Yankees to add a starter.
The Flea Markets
Philadelphia. Milwaukee. And (maybe) Oakland. Because of that second wild-card slot, far more teams are looking to buy right now than sell. Which is why there is no trading at the moment. As of now, there appear to be only three clear sellers:
The A's always are interesting at this time of year because Billy Beane likes action. But he's sending mixed signals to his colleagues, and understandably so: After a miserable start, the A's won 12 of 18, and their run differential is the fourth-best in the AL despite being in last place. So, is that a prelude to one of Oakland's patented second-half charges? Or fool's gold? Kazmir, closer Tyler Clippard and the multi-positional Ben Zobrist all are interesting pieces. Clippard especially fits in Toronto, Detroit and Baltimore, among others.
In Milwaukee, Doug Melvin indicated earlier this year around the time he fired manager Ron Roenicke that the Brewers had no alternative but to go into retooling mode. Right-hander Kyle Lohse, a free agent this winter, could fill a need in New York, Houston, Toronto or elsewhere. Relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Jonathan Broxton, and third baseman Aramis Ramirez are no strangers to the rumor mill. And the Padres, desperate for a shortstop, are believed to have interest in Jean Segura.
Philadelphia? Quick, someone make sure Amaro Jr.'s alarm clock is set! And disarm the snooze button!
What's Up in South Beach?
Jose Fernandez is back, which is great for Miami and great for baseball. But with Giancarlo Stanton out for a few weeks with a broken hamate bone, what does that mean for a Marlins team that thought it could contend this year? Well, Miami still likes its team and believes if a wild-card run this year isn't feasible, contention next year absolutely is within reach. So don't expect a quintessential Jeffrey Loria teardown. Veteran starters Haren and Latos are expected to be dealt as the club retools, but not much else.
Don't Sleep on the Giants
Easy to do, because under GM Brian Sabean, San Francisco keeps its business to itself. You don't hear many rumors. The Giants simply strike. And nobody is better at striking at this time of year than Sabean. Those three World Series titles in the past five years have been sparked by key midsummer acquisitions like Cody Ross, Pat Burrell, Javier Lopez, Hunter Pence, Marco Scutaro and Jake Peavy. Given the shaky health of Tim Hudson, Peavy and Matt Cain, might the Giants add a starter? Stay tuned.
Who's on First in St. Louis?
The Cardinals own baseball's best record, and they're pretty strong across the board. But first baseman Matt Adams is out for the season following quad surgery, and while Mark Reynolds has pop, he also strikes out a bunch (as ever) and will be exposed if he remains the everyday first baseman for the next three months. This is the one obvious area for St. Louis to upgrade. Another, of course, is pitching. You can never have enough pitching. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe lists the Cardinals as one of the clubs looking at White Sox starter Jeff Samardzija (along with the Royals, Tigers, Twins, Angels, Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees and Dodgers).
Kansas City Wants Pitching
Well-stocked with talented young position players, the Royals, according to sources, are pushing hard in the starting pitching market. With Joe Blanton having made a couple of starts lately, they'd better push even harder. Among others, the Royals are very interested in Kazmir and Leake.
What Will San Diego GM A.J. Preller Do?
One of baseball's most disappointing clubs, the Padres remain an enigma. "I still think their best baseball is in front of them," one scout said last week. "I don't think they should sell."
Best bet: Look for the Padres to be both buyers and sellers. Outfielder Justin Upton and starter Ian Kennedy are free agents this winter and are obvious candidates to be dealt. Starter Andrew Cashner very well might be made available, too. Closer Craig Kimbrel (expensive at roughly $29 million through 2017) and setup man Joaquin Benoit could be expendable for the right price.
Bottom line: Barring a last-minute winning streak that gives them cache, this is a work in progress. They're not going all fire sale because they can't afford to break trust with fans they just won back (Petco Park attendance is up more than 10 percent over last year, at 31,479 per game from 27,103) and they have the All-Star Game next summer. But you saw what Preller did last winter. No way he will sit by quietly this month. Especially with a gaping hole at shortstop.
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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