Underachieving MLB Teams About to Break out in 2nd Half

Every team has a certain level of expectation when the season starts. It could be as low as starting a long-term rebuild or as high as deeming the season a failure if the team does not win the World Series. 

The implementation of the second wild-card berth in each league has shifted expectations in the last three seasons. Because of that extra spot, more teams see themselves as postseason hopefuls. The evidence is in extreme offseason makeovers and so many teams unwilling to declare themselves sellers as the July 31 trade deadline approaches.  

This has led to unmet expectations for a number of those teams this year. At the halfway point of the season—most teams are around the 81-game mark by now—some clubs have certainly underachieved. 

But the second half still carries hope. Those clubs see the trade deadline and the next 80 or so games as their time to rebound and make good on a year that was supposed to last beyond the final game of the regular season.

Based on recent performances, the advanced metrics and what could happen at the trade deadline, a handful of disappointing teams can still break out of their slumps, starting now.

Detroit Tigers

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

There were certainly question marks for the Tigers on Opening Day, but seemingly not enough that anyone believed they would struggle to be above .500 at the halfway point.

But with Victor Martinez’s injury and decline, Justin Verlander’s injury and decline, Anibal Sanchez’s terrible first half and the bullpen’s overall ineffectiveness, the Tigers sit six games behind the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central and 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot. This is nowhere near where they were supposed to be as the All-Star break neared. 

“Last year, the biggest thing I took, and the biggest thing that I learned, was how much fun that last month of September was,” Tigers right fielder J.D. Martinez told reporters Thursday after the Pittsburgh Pirates swept Detroit.

“That's one thing that, if we don't start playing better, getting some wins, keeping it close, that last month's going to be a drag.”

It does not have to be, though. The Tigers are still one of the best offensive teams in the league, and David Price is still one of the game’s aces. If the team is going to take advantage of those two things, it has to get busy on the trade market.

The Tigers are actively scouting pitching options, including those of the Miami Marlins, according to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. They are also interested in Boston’s Clay Buchholz and Chicago White Sox free agent-to-be Jeff Samardzija, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Either of those arms could give the rotation a boost and propel the team to a second-half run up the standings.

The Tigers are 7-2 against the Minnesota Twins, the team directly ahead of them, with 10 games remaining between the two clubs. And while they are just 3-4 against the Royals, they will play them 12 more times, giving Detroit a chance to make up games in the standings.

The one thing that could derail Detroit's second half? Miguel Cabrera was sent to the 15-day DL on Saturday and is expected to miss six weeks after suffering a calf strain, per Sports Illustrated's Cliff Corcoran.

But despite only slightly above .500 entering Saturday, the Tigers are far from buried.

New York Mets

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

The Mets had rising expectations coming into this season, but they grew even higher after the club ended April with a 4.5-game lead in the National League East despite losing its final three games of the month.

However, since that strong start, the Mets are 25-35. They entered Saturday 41-40 and four games behind the surging Washington Nationals. Their rotation, despite having some of the best young arms in the game, has been a mess because of constant tinkering and shuffling. And the offense has been virtually non-existent, partly because of significant injuries to David Wright and Travis d’Arnaud, who have combined to play just 27 of the team’s 81 games.

There is reason for optimism, though. Wright believes he can begin baseball activities next week, and the recent promotion of starter Steven Matz—7.2 innings, two earned runs allowed in his major league debut—should strengthen a rotation that is good enough to carry an inept offense.

The team is also active on the trade market, having already discussed Ben Zobrist with the Oakland A’s, per ESPN.com's Adam Rubin. And, if the player is right, the team is willing to overpay for a key piece.

“I would characterize us as somewhat aggressive,” general manager Sandy Alderson told Rubin. “…Are we prepared to overpay? Me, personally, yeah, I’m prepared to overpay. But there has to be something to overpay for.”

Zobrist could be that player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported Friday.

If Wright can return by August, the Mets nab a player like Zobrist and the rotation reaches expectations, the Mets are in good shape for a big run. Granted, those are plenty of “ifs,” but if a couple of them hit, this team could race for a playoff berth for the first time since 2006.

Oakland A's

Ben Margot/Associated Press

The A’s are in a peculiar position. They are far better than their 37-46 record, based on their plus-48 run differential, which is third best in the American League. They sit 11.5 games out of first place in the AL West and 6.5 games out of a wild-card spot. They are a franchise that has to take advantage of expiring assets by moving them, yet Oakland is 12-7 in its last 19 games and could be on the verge of a major second-half surge if it doesn’t gut the roster. 

“Yes,” former Colorado Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd said on MLB Network when asked if the A’s have enough time to make a run. “I think what the A’s are going to do is they are going to look to subtract and add at the same time.”

That could make sense. The A’s could move a piece like Ben Zobrist or Scott Kazmir without obliterating their chances. Of course, they would have to add bullpen help for a unit that had a 4.35 ERA entering Friday and was part of the reason the team was 6-20 in one-run games.

Also, trading Zobrist or Kazmir could not only bring back a prospect or two but also major league talent to help the A’s in this second half.

The A’s have one of the best rotations in the game, and the offense has carried its own through the first half. Adding a key player or two, even if Oakland has to sell some parts to get them, could push this team into its fourth consecutive postseason appearance.

San Diego Padres

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

After an extreme offseason makeover, the Padres were a popular pick to make the playoffs…and for good reason. An outfield of Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Wil Myers had potential to be the best offensive trio in the majors, the signing of James Shields threatened to significantly boost a rotation that was middle-of-the-pack last year, and trading for closer Craig Kimbrel solidified a bullpen that was, at times, dominant in 2014. 

The Padres started the season 10-6, but they have tumbled since. Kemp (.242 average) has been brutal offensively and defensively, Myers has played just 35 games, and Shields (4.14 ERA) and Kimbrel (3.19 ERA) have been disappointments. All of this led to manager Bud Black being fired last month, and the team is now in fourth place in the National League West, 6.5 games out and five games from a wild-card berth.

The Padres have not shown recent signs of breaking out and are in the middle of four games against the St. Louis Cardinals, who have the major league’s best record, before heading to Pittsburgh to face the team with the league’s second-best mark.

The Padres have considered both buying and selling this month, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. But if they buy, there is reason for hope.

Kemp was coming off a lackluster first half with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year before erupting into one of the most dangerous offensive players in baseball in the second half, which was a big reason the Padres were attracted to him in the offseason. If that happens again, Kemp is good enough to carry a lineup. Not that he would have to, because Upton has been good in his contract year.

Shields was also much better in the second half last season with the Kansas City Royals, turning a 3.65 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in his first 20 starts into a 2.62 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in his final 14.

And it is possible Myers can return next month, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

With a full and productive roster, this team can still surge into a wild-card position and fulfill its October expectations.

Cleveland Indians

STEVE NESIUS/Associated Press

The Indians had a potentially dominant rotation entering this season but not much else. Still, that kind of pitching has been known to carry a team into October, so Cleveland had reason to believe.

That dissipated by the end of April when the Indians went 7-14. But after falling 12 games back in the American League Central on Sunday, their biggest deficit of the year, the Indians have won five in a row and cut the Kansas City Royals’ lead to eight games.

The rotation has been the reason for the success with strikeouts galore and three of the five pitchers apparently capable of historic performance any time they take the ball. This could be a sign that things are trending toward what the rotation did after the All-Star break last season, when it was the best in the league with a 10.9 FanGraphs WAR.

Four of the Indians starters have ERAs below 4.00, and three have double-digit strikeouts per nine innings. No major league team has ever had that from one rotation in the same season in the history of the game.

The Indians would have coveted pieces if they decided to sell at 38-41 and 3.5 games out in the wild-card standings. But if they can get some offensive help in the second half, the rotation is strong and deep enough to push the Indians into a second-half run that would make them September contenders.

Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.