Projecting Each MLB Team's Ace 5 Years from Now
From Madison Bumgarner to Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez, there are some familiar names that hit the list in the process of projecting each MLB team's ace five years from now.
Of course, there are also plenty of unfamiliar faces on the slides that follow. After all, five years is a long time, and lots can change between now and the start of the 2020 campaign. Some of the starters who made the cut have yet to throw a professional pitch, while others are prominent prospects who are on the verge of making the majors.
As far as individual teams go, there was no club with more options to pick from than the New York Mets.
Atlanta Braves
1 of 30
The Ace: Shelby Miller, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 29
The Outlook
Shelby Miller has been dealing ever since arriving at Turner Field.
In 13 starts with the Atlanta Braves, Miller has turned in a 2.02 ERA and thrown a couple of complete games. Miller can't become a free agent until the end of the 2019 season, which means the Braves can take their time in deciding whether to extend him. At this early vantage point, the answer is a resounding yes.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 30
The Ace: Chase Anderson, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 32
The Outlook
The 27-year-old Chase Anderson is a late bloomer, but he sure has stood out in 2015. Anderson has been rolling along for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. The righty has held the opposition to two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight outings.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
The Ace: Kevin Gausman, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 29
The Outlook
Kevin Gausman, who is currently on a minor league rehab assignment, has pitched out of the pen in all eight of his outings for the Baltimore Orioles in 2015.
The time will eventually come for the talented right-hander to not only join the rotation, but to claim his spot at the top. Last season, Gausman showed what he can do on the big stage, recording a 2.87 ERA in his final five starts. Patience will be required, but the future is awfully bright for this 24-year-old.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
The Ace: Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 27
The Outlook
The Boston Red Sox could really use a No. 1 starter right now, but at least it looks like the club has a front-line arm of the future in Eduardo Rodriguez.
The Venezuelan has put together a 3.55 ERA since getting called up at the end of May, but the figure would be much lower if not for one nightmare outing. On June 14, Rodriguez served up nine runs to the Toronto Blue Jays. In the first three starts of his major league career, he let in just a single earned run.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30The Ace: Duane Underwood, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 25
The Outlook
Jon Lester will still be on the Chicago Cubs payroll in 2020, and he'll be set to make $20 million. However, considering that he'll be 36, it seems unlikely that Lester will be the Cubs' No. 1 starter.
If everything goes to plan, Duane Underwood will be atop the rotation by then. The 20-year-old right-hander, who can throw 98 mph, has produced a 2.08 ERA in 10 High-A starts in 2015.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
The Ace: Carlos Rodon, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 26
The Outlook
This is a difficult call to make.
Chris Sale will only be 31 years old at the start of 2020, but the numbers that rookie Carlos Rodon has put up in his first go-around in the bigs just can't be ignored.
Rodon has spun off a 2.66 ERA in his first nine outings (six starts) for the Chicago White Sox. The left-hander was tagged for seven runs in his most recent start, but in his previous four he allowed just three earned runs.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30The Ace: Robert Stephenson, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 27
The Outlook
A first-round pick way back in 2011, everything is starting to fall into place for Robert Stephenson.
After a lackluster Double-A debut a season ago, the results have been far more promising for the Cincinnati Reds prospect in his second go-around in the Southern League. In his last 10 outings for the Pensacola Blue Wahoos, the 22-year-old has ripped off a 3.31 ERA and totaled 60 Ks in 54.1 frames.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30The Ace: Brady Aiken, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 23
The Outlook
This is a speculative selection, as Brady Aiken is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery and has yet to step on the mound as a professional.
Still, it's difficult to find a pitching prospect with more upside than the lefty. Aiken was the No. 1 overall pick in 2014, but ultimately never signed with the Houston Astros. The Cleveland Indians snagged Aiken with No. 17 pick this year and may have landed one of the biggest steals of the 2015 draft.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30The Ace: Mike Nikorak, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 23
The Outlook
Jon Gray was under consideration for this title, but ultimately the starter lost out due to his subpar showing in the opening months of 2015. The top prospect hasn't been fooling anyone in Triple-A, as he's compiled a 4.76 ERA and allowed the opposition to put up a .289 average.
Courtesy of Gray's struggles, the call goes to Mike Nikorak, who the Colorado Rockies acquired with the No. 27 pick in this month's draft. Standing 6'5" and capable of hitting 97 mph on the radar gun, Nikorak has all the tools to end up at the top of the rotation at Coors Field.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30The Ace: Beau Burrows, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 26
The Outlook
The No. 22 overall pick this month, Beau Burrows has lots of climbing to do before he arrives at Comerica Park.
However, the right-hander has all the weapons required to make a fast rise through the Detroit Tigers farm system. Per MLB.com, Burrows can hit 96 mph with his fastball and also has an impressive curve. During his senior season at Weatherford High School in Texas, Burrows reeled off a 0.78 ERA and piled up 132 Ks in 72 frames.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
The Ace: Dallas Keuchel, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 32
The Outlook
Quietly, Dallas Keuchel has asserted himself as one of the most dominant starters in the American League.
Last year, the lefty recorded a 2.93 ERA, and he's dropped that mark all the way to 2.04 this season. That figure represents the third-lowest ERA in the league. Keuchel becomes a free agent at the end of the 2019 season, but locking up the starter long before he hits the open market should be a top priority for the Houston Astros.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
The Ace: Yordano Ventura, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 28
The Outlook
With a 4.68 ERA, Yordano Ventura hasn't exactly been dealing for the Kansas City Royals in 2015. As underwhelming as that mark is, it's still far too early to give up on Ventura as an ace of the future.
Last year, the righty, posted a 3.20 ERA and a 7.8 K/9 ratio in 31 outings. It takes a ton of talent to put up numbers like that in the major leagues at the age of 23—the kind of talent that suggests big things are to come.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
The Ace: Andrew Heaney, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 28
The Outlook
Andrew Heaney's 4.40 ERA in Triple-A this season doesn't exactly scream future ace.
But there's more to the lefty than his current stat line. The first consideration is that Heaney is throwing in Salt Lake City, which is one of the most unforgiving pitching environments in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.
The No. 9 overall pick from the 2012 MLB draft also has a track record which indicates that 2015 is more of an aberration that an indicator of what is to come. In parts of four seasons on the farm, Heaney owns a 3.13 ERA and has always piled up the punchouts, putting up a 9.0 K/9 ratio.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
The Ace: Clayton Kershaw, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 32
The Outlook
Clayton Kershaw had better still be pitching like an ace in 2020 because he'll still be getting paid like one. The lefty will be raking in just under $35.6 million that season.
While the three-time Cy Young Award winner gets the nod, superprospect Julio Urias is also worth a honorable mention. The Mexican, who has already advanced to Double-A at the age of 18, will be 23 years old when Opening Day 2020 arrives.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
The Ace: Jose Fernandez, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 27
The Outlook
The return of Jose Fernandez is almost here. Per ESPN.com, the Cuban is on track to take the mound for the Miami Marlins on July 2 for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery 14 months ago.
Before he injured his elbow, Fernandez was one of the rising stars in the game. If he can get back to his previous form, the right-hander, who remains under team control through 2019, will be on his way to hauling in a monster payday.
Minnesota Twins
16 of 30The Ace: Kohl Stewart, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 25
The Outlook
Ever since the Minnesota Twins snagged Kohl Stewart with the No. 4 pick in 2013, the right-hander has climbed steadily through the minor league ranks.
In parts of three seasons, Stewart has compiled a 2.76 ERA while giving up just four home runs in 156.1 innings. It's worth noting that the starter has always been extremely young for his level. This season, Stewart is 3.1 years younger than the average player in the Florida State League, per Baseball-Reference.com.
Milwaukee Brewers
17 of 30The Ace: Devin Williams, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 25
The Outlook
It takes some digging to find a 2020 ace for the Milwaukee Brewers. On the big league level, both Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson have shown glimpses of excellence, but they've also shown plenty of inconsistency.
On the minor league level, 2014 top pick Kodi Medeiros has been shelled ever since becoming a professional pitcher. One starter who offers considerable upside is Devin Williams. The starter is only 20 years old, but standing 6'3" and topping out at 95 mph, the righty has the making of a future big-time arm.
New York Mets
18 of 30
The Ace: Jacob deGrom, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 31
The Outlook
The New York Mets have plenty of options for this spot.
Jacob deGrom might not have arrived in Queens with the same pedigree as starters like Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, but it's impossible to ignore the results that the second-year righty has produced. Since joining the Mets in May of 2014, deGrom has totaled a 2.56 ERA and a 9.3 K/9 ratio.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
The Ace: Luis Severino, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 26
The Outlook
Having already earned a promotion to Triple-A in the early goings on 2015, it's only a matter of time before Luis Severino lands in the Bronx.
While splitting the season between the New York Yankees' top two affiliates, the Dominican has recorded a 3.13 ERA and punched out 56 batters in 54.2 innings of work.
Severino's future is in the rotation, but he could be of help to the Yankees' shaky middle relief group in the short term. For now, general manager Brian Cashman won't be calling on the righty for bullpen work.
"Can that happen? I wouldn't rule it out," Cashman said, via David Lennon of Newsday. "But it's not something we're talking about right now. I'm not opposed to it. It's just right now, I think we have some other people legitimately before him for the bullpen category."
The electric starter has the kind of stuff that would make him a weapon out of the bullpen. However, his long-term development would be best served by letting him continue to fine-tune his craft in the Triple-A rotation.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30The Ace: Dakota Chalmers, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 23
The Outlook
There's no question about it—Sonny Gray is the ace of the present for the Oakland Athletics.
Of course, with the way executive vice president and general manager Billy Beane trades players, it's nearly impossible to think that Gray will still be around in 2020.
With Oakland's system lacking in high-upside starters, this isn't any easy pick to make. However, 2015 third-round pick Dakota Chalmers represents an intriguing selection. According to Jim Callis of MLB.com, the 18-year-old right-hander generated first-round hype and already cracks 98 mph on the radar gun.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30The Ace: Aaron Nola, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 26
The Outlook
Aaron Nola is on the doorstep of the bigs.
It's been a tremendous rise for the 22-year-old, who the Philadelphia Phillies selected with the No. 7 pick last June. Per Matt Breen of The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Phillies promoted Nola to Triple-A after he went 7-3 with a 1.88 ERA in 12 Double-A outings to open up the 2015 season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
The Ace: Gerrit Cole, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 29
The Outlook
No pitcher in the NL has a lower ERA than Gerrit Cole, who checks in at 1.71. The right-hander also leads baseball with 10 wins. With numbers like those, Cole is making an early charge for the NL Cy Young
Award. He's also making it clear to the Pittsburgh Pirates that the team needs to lock him up sooner rather than later.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
The Ace: Tyson Ross, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 32
The Outlook
With the San Diego Padres farm system lacking in blue-chip pitching prospects, this is one of the more challenging calls to make.
The pitcher who ends up right at the top of the list is Tyson Ross. The right-hander becomes a free agent at the end of the 2018 campaign, which means he would have to sign a new deal to be the team's ace in five years' time. With the way he's pitched since the start of 2014, a multiyear extension could be in his future.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
The Ace: Madison Bumgarner, LHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 30
The Outlook
Madison Bumgarner becomes a free agent at the end of the 2019 season, but the San Francisco Giants would be fools to let this lefty ever leave AT&T Park.
With three World Series rings already, it's easy to forget that MadBum doesn't turn 26 until August. By the time Opening day 2020 gets here, the starter will be 30 and should have added a Cy Young Award or two to his already remarkable resume.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
The Ace: Felix Hernandez, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 34
The Outlook
Like Bumgarner, it feels like Felix Hernandez has been around forever. Much to the dismay of AL batters, King Felix isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
Hernandez is currently pitching in his 11th season with the Seattle Mariners. Considering that he just turned 29 in April, he could be pitching for at least 10 more.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
The Ace: Michael Wacha, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 28
The Outlook
With an 8-2 record and a 2.45 ERA, Michael Wacha is already edging toward ace status.
Of course, pitching at a high level is nothing new for the St. Louis Cardinals right-hander. Since breaking into the bigs back in 2013, Wacha has compiled a 2.86 ERA for the NL Central squad.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
The Ace: Chris Archer, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 31
The Outlook
Chris Archer doesn't generate a ton of buzz, which is a shame because the righty has been lights-out in 2015. The starter has compiled a 2.00 ERA, second-lowest in the AL, and has limited the opposition to a .196 BAA.
The Tampa Bay Rays don't have to worry about Archer leaving anytime soon, as he's under team control through the end of the 2021 season. In 2020, the Rays hold a $9 million team option on the starter with a $1.75 million buyout. From this juncture, that's looking like one team-friendly salary.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
The Ace: Dillon Tate, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 26
The Outlook
The No. 4 overall pick in the 2015 draft, Dillon Tate has yet to throw a professional pitch. However, the Texas Rangers already have big-time expectations for the righty starter.
"He’s an extremely intelligent kid, he’s the type of player we’ve had a lot of success with, the type of guy you tell him what he can’t do, and that’s exactly what he sets out to try to do," assistant GM Thad Levine said on The Afternoon Show with Cowlishaw and Mosley on KESN-FM 103.3 (via the Dallas Morning News). "We believe the best is yet to come."
The results were highly impressive for Tate in his junior season with UC Santa Barbara. In 14 starts for the Gauchos, Tate sported a 2.26 ERA and a 9.7 K/9 ratio.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
The Ace: Marcus Stroman, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 28
The Outlook
Marcus Stroman won't throw a single pitch for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2015 as he works his way back from a torn ACL, but the future is beyond promising for the starter. During his rookie season in 2014, Stroman posted an ERA of 2.67 or lower in three of the final four months of the campaign.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
The Ace: Max Scherzer, RHP
2020 Opening Day Age: 35
The Outlook
Max Scherzer is the oldest pitcher to crack this list, and is subsequently one of the riskiest inclusions.
The starter, who is under contract with the Washington Nationals through the end of 2021, will be 35 years old when the 2020 season opens up. A lot can go wrong between now and then, but the early returns have been excellent for the Nats. Scherzer is the owner of a 1.93 ERA and is tied atop the MLB leaderboard with 113 strikeouts.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All videos courtesy of MLB.com and YouTube.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
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