2015 MLB Rookie of the Year Stock Watch, End of May Edition
Major League Baseball has been overrun with youth in recent years, and the barrage isn't letting up in 2015. So if you like high drama in your awards races, the Rookie of the Year is the one for you.
And with the first two months of the season just about over, it's time to check where things stand.
We're going to rank the top five Rookie of the Year contenders in the American and National League, respectively. Simple enough, but understand that there are two ground rules at play:
- Overall production matters most.
- Since we're also taking the temperature of the candidates, a guy who's been good all year won't necessarily rank ahead of a guy who's red-hot now.
Before we begin, a fair warning: The crop of rookies in the AL is solid, but it isn't nearly as strong as the crop of rookies in the NL. As such, we'll warm up with the Junior Circuit before moving to the Senior Circuit.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Keeping Tabs
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Because there's not room for everyone in the slides ahead, these are the guys who didn't quite make the cut but are worth monitoring.
American League
Joey Butler, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Mark Canha, LF, Oakland A's
Delino DeShields, OF, Texas Rangers
Keone Kela, RP, Texas Rangers
Trevor May, SP, Minnesota Twins
Carlos Rodon, SP, Chicago White Sox
Aaron Sanchez, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Preston Tucker, LF, Houston Astros
National League
Michael Blazek, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Anthony DeSclafani, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Atlanta Braves
Chris Heston, SP, San Francisco Giants
Addison Russell, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
AL No. 5: Steven Souza Jr., Tampa Bay Rays
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Steven Souza Jr. has two things working in his favor in his hunt for the AL Rookie of the Year: lots of playing time and plenty of power.
With 43 games and 171 plate appearances, Souza has seen more action than any other AL rookie. He's also tied for the AL rookie lead with seven home runs, which are part of a solid overall offensive attack that features a solid, if less than spectacular .729 OPS.
However, Souza's stock is slipping. Fast. And hard.
After starting the year red-hot with a .950 OPS through 15 games, Souza has hit just .188 with a .610 OPS in 28 games ever since. Along the way, he's struck out in 39.3 percent of his plate appearances.
On top of all this, the 26-year-old right fielder now has a left wrist injury to come back from. At this point, the only thing really keeping him in the race is a lack of competition from fellow AL rookies.
AL No. 4: Nate Karns, Tampa Bay Rays
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This year's crop of AL rookie starters looks weak on the surface, in part because much-hyped super-prospects like Daniel Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Carlos Rodon have disappointed.
Nate Karns, however, is a guy to keep an eye on.
Along with Sanchez, the 27-year-old right-hander is one of two AL rookies to make as many as nine starts. But Karns has Sanchez beat in ERA (3.71 to 3.98), and he's also getting better with time.
In Karns' first four starts, he had a 5.32 ERA and a 20-14 K/BB ratio in 23.2 innings. In his last five starts, he has a 2.30 ERA and a 26-8 K/BB ratio in 27.1 innings. And as his FanGraphs splits can vouch, his strikeout, walk and hard-hit rates have all improved in May. His rising four-seam fastball has been a major factor, as opponents are hitting it at just a .191 clip this month, according to Brooks Baseball.
So while there doesn't seem to be ace material among this year's AL rookie starters, don't be so sure. Karns is trending in that direction.
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AL No. 3: Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays' decision to move ahead using a roster loaded with young pitching has produced plenty of headaches, but not when Roberto Osuna has been on the mound.
The 20-year-old right-hander has been as steady as they come in his 21 appearances, posting a 1.46 ERA with 24 strikeouts and six walks in 24.2 innings. Among AL rookies with at least 20 innings, his 1.46 ERA is good for second.
To boot, much of Osuna's action has come in pressure situations, which is only making his experience more enjoyable.
“When I made the team, I thought I’d be a low reliever, probably wouldn’t throw too much,” he told Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. “But now I got, like, 20 innings. I’m throwing in the seventh and eighth innings—it’s great.”
There is one catch though: He hasn't felt the effects yet, but Osuna's dominance has been slipping a bit. After striking out 30 percent of the batters he faced in April, his strikeout rate has dipped to just 21.4 in May.
This doesn't mean Osuna is on thin ice, but it does signal that he may be soon.
AL No. 2: Carson Smith, Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners bullpen has been an adventure, but at least it has the AL's best rookie relief pitcher: Carson Smith.
Smith is tearing through the opposition to the tune of a 0.86 ERA with 24 strikeouts and only five walks in 21.0 innings. He's the guy who ranks ahead of Roberto Osuna in ERA, and by a significant margin at that.
And those aren't the only advantages Smith has on Osuna. He's also getting better, as his strikeout, walk and hard-hit rates have all improved in May. With Fernando Rodney struggling, it's no wonder they're starting to call for the Mariners to use Smith in the ninth inning.
Larry Stone of the Seattle Times is leading the charge, arguing that Smith has the stuff and the makeup for the job. He's certainly right about the stuff, as Brooks Baseball shows that both his wicked sinker and slider are holding opponents to batting averages well below the Mendoza Line.
But while Smith's stock is rising, he's not quite the AL Rookie of the Year candidate to beat just yet.
AL No. 1: Devon Travis, Toronto Blue Jays
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Though the gap is closing, the AL Rookie of the Year race still has a clear leader: Devon Travis.
The 24-year-old second baseman got off to a superb start, batting .368 with a 1.140 OPS and six home runs through 19 games. Never mind among rookies, he was one of the best hitters in baseball, period.
Ever since then, however, Travis has plummeted to Earth. He's hit just .167 with a .519 OPS in his last 17 games, and he recently landed on the disabled list with a left shoulder injury. Knowing what shoulder injuries can do to a hitter, that could prove to be the death blow to his Rookie of the Year hunt.
Despite all this, it's hard to downplay Travis' overall production. He's hitting .271 with seven homers and an .839 OPS. And whether you ask Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs, he's still leading his fellow AL rookies in wins above replacement.
Travis may be slipping, but he hasn't fallen just yet.
NL No. 5: Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks
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As we're about to acknowledge in the coming slides, the National League Rookie of the Year race is loaded with first-year players who can flat out hit.
According to the traditional measurement of hitting, though, Yasmany Tomas is the best of the bunch.
In 116 plate appearances spanning 33 games, the 24-year-old Cuban defector has posted an outstanding .345 batting average. Among all rookies with at least 100 plate appearances, that's tops by a mile.
And no, Tomas doesn't appear interested in slowing down. He's in the middle of an 11-game hitting streak in which he's batting .420 with a 1.011 OPS, collecting multiple hits in eight of the 11 games.
The catch? Tomas' hitting prowess doesn't come with much else. He's yet to show off his supposedly immense power potential, and as expected, his defense at the hot corner has been atrocious.
Still, you'll want to watch Tomas when he's at the plate. The way he's going, you'll get a chance to watch a rising hitting star in the Senior Circuit.
NL No. 4: Alex Guerrero, Los Angeles Dodgers
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We go from arguably the NL's best rookie hitter to arguably its best rookie power hitter.
The tragedy of Alex Guerrero's season is that he's been limited by various circumstances to only 93 plate appearances. But in those, he's hit .310 with a whopping .701 slugging percentage and nine home runs. As Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times pointed out, "He’s homered once every 9.7 at-bats. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, that would make him second in the majors to Washington’s Bryce Harper (8.72) for best home-run ratio."
It would have been hard to rave about Guerrero as recently as a couple of days ago, since he'd hit only one home run between April 28 and May 22. But he's hot again with three homers in his last four games, and he should have more playing time coming his way in the wake of the Juan Uribe trade.
Here's guessing that Guerrero won't keep hitting homers at a Harperian pace. But with regular playing time, he won't need to in order to have a shot at leading all rookies in homers. Keep an eye on him.
NL No. 3: Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates
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The Pirates rolled the dice when they signed Jung Ho Kang, as he was to be the first hitter in history to make the transition from the Korean Baseball Organization to MLB.
So far, so good.
Kang has logged 116 plate appearances in 34 games and has hit .308 with an .832 OPS and three home runs. He's been especially hot in May with a .321 average and an .891 OPS. That alone is reason enough for why he's bumped Jordy Mercer from Pittsburgh's starting shortstop gig.
But as a bonus, the fielding metrics like what Kang is doing on defense. Hence why you could find him third overall among NL rookies in FanGraphs WAR and second overall in Baseball-Reference.com WAR going into play on Thursday.
There's an argument to be made that the 28-year-old shortstop belongs even higher in these rankings. But when you look at who's ahead of him, that argument indeed becomes harder to make.
NL No. 2: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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Friends, we've reached that point. When Kris Bryant is at the plate, you need to be watching.
After entering the year as arguably the best prospect in baseball, the 23-year-old third baseman was hardly a disappointment with a .264 average and .774 OPS in his first 20 games. He just didn't show off his 80-grade raw power, as he had zero homers at the time.
That's changed. In his last 18 games, Bryant has hit .288 with a 1.008 OPS and seven home runs. One of those was an absolutely titanic blast off the new scoreboard at Wrigley Field, which Statcast measured at 477 feet.
Thanks to his hot hitting, Bryant is now sitting on a .275 average and an .871 OPS. His OPS ranks second among all rookies with at least 100 plate appearances, and Bryant is also pushing the top of the NL WAR leaderboards.
But in the NL Rookie of the Year race, Bryant is still looking up at one guy...
NL No. 1: Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers
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He may be feeling the heat from Kris Bryant, but for now, Joc Pederson is still in a league of his own among rookies.
With 187 plate appearances in 46 games, Pederson has seen as much action as any rookie in the league. He's also tops in home runs with 12 and in OPS at .945. Factor in the 23-year-old's solid defense in center field, and it's no surprise to see him leading the way in WAR.
Of course, Pederson has slowed down a bit since starting off at a torrid pace. From April to May, his OPS has dropped nearly 200 points while he's struggled with an elevated strikeout rate and a decreased walk rate. This, apparently, is what can happen when you move from the No. 8 spot up to the leadoff spot.
But don't call Pederson cold. He's working on three straight multihit games and has hit .417 with two homers in his last six games overall. If the whole idea is to keep some distance between him and Bryant, well, he's doing it right.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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