Carolina Panthers 2015 Draft: Aggregating Report Card Grades from Around the Web
Any grade of a draft in the immediate aftermath of said draft should be taken with a grain of salt. There’s no way to really tell how good a draft class will end up being until it has had several years to develop on the field. For the Carolina Panthers, Shaq Thompson could tear his ACL the first time he steps onto the field. Cameron Artis-Payne could rush for 1,800 yards a season for the next five years. In 2020, we can look back and see if the Panthers got the best players or not, but for now, it’s all guesswork.
Everyone still files post-draft grades, though, and everyone likes reading instant analysis. This slideshow will take a quick whip-pan around the various draft experts out there, seeing what the general consensus is on how the Panthers maneuvered through the 2015 draft.
While it’s true we don’t have any reliable information about how good players will be in the NFL, there are several process-related things the top graders can review. They can see how teams used their draft capital—did they take any players remarkably earlier or later than the consensus opinion? Did they get good value for their trades?
Sometimes, one team values a player much higher than other teams, and occasionally, they’re right and the other 31 teams are wrong. However, the more frequently a team goes away from common perception, the more likely they are to make a mistake. No one can beat the market forever.
In other words, pay more attention to grades that judge the Panthers’ process rather than the results. This year, the process seemed to mostly be “trade up to grab the best remaining player at positions of greatest need.” Did the draft experts agree with that strategy? Let’s find out.
Mel Kiper, ESPN: C
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The granddaddy of draft evaluators, Mel Kiper was less than thrilled with Carolina’s draft. Only one team in the NFL got a lower grade than Carolina’s C—Buffalo, which earned a C-. While that seems to defeat the point of having grades below C, it’s clear that Kiper didn’t think particularly highly of Carolina’s draft strategy.
He identified Carolina’s top needs as being offensive tackle, wide receiver, defensive back and safety, in that order, and was amazed when Carolina didn’t address offensive tackle until day three of the draft. He didn’t appear to like any pick the Panthers made.
Shaq Thompson was a “good player” but “sure looked like a reach.” Devin Funchess “struggles to gain separation.” Daryl Williams is “decent tackle value at No. 102,” but the thought of him starting in 2015 is “wishful thinking.” David Mayo is “a bit of a puzzler.” The only player he didn’t have something negative to say about was Cameron Artis-Payne.
This seems overly negative. I agree that the offensive line still looks frightening, but they did get a Day 2 value at the beginning of the third day. You don’t necessarily need first-round talent on the offensive line, especially if you’re only looking for a right tackle. The top six right tackles in the league last season, according to Pro Football Focus, included Sebastian Vollmer (a second-round pick), Ricky Wagner (a fifth-round pick), Zach Strief and Derek Newton (seventh-round picks). You can find offensive line value late, in other words.
I’d agree that questions about Michael Oher will persist until he actually performs well, but if you accept that the Panthers believe he’s a franchise left tackle, then I think you can give the Panthers a little credit for finding a valuable potential starter on the right on day three. A grade of C or so actually seems fair, but not if the only team you’re going to give a worse grade to is Buffalo.
Bryan Fischer, NFL.com: C+
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Over at NFL.com, Bryan Fischer breaks down his grades by day before giving an overall grade.
For the Panthers, Fischer gives the first round a B- grade. He agrees with Kiper that Thompson might have been a “slight reach, given that most thought he would slip to the second round.”
For Day 2, and thus just Devin Funchess, he gives the Panthers a straight C. He points out that Funchess can “develop into a monster opposite Kelvin Benjamin” but notes the “steep price” paid for him.
Day 3 earned a B grade, as he noted that Daryl Williams will “boost the line,” but overall, he considered this a “small class with not a ton of impactful players.”
The C+ grade trumps New Orleans, Seattle, the New York Giants, Denver, Houston and Buffalo, so while Fischer is similarly terrified to grade teams anything less than a C, it seems like he feels better about Carolina’s selections overall than Mel Kiper does.
There’s certainly no arguing that this is a small class; only the San Diego Chargers drafted as few players as Carolina did. But “not a ton of impactful players” seems is a bit harsh.
How is Fischer defining an “impactful” player? By NFL.com’s own player grades, the Panthers ended up with three players with a score of at least 5.5, which is defined as having a “chance to become NFL starter.” The Panthers were picking 25th overall; how many Pro Bowl-caliber players was Fischer hoping they would take?
In fact, three players with that grade was the average result for NFL teams this year, with only eight teams getting more “potential starters.” The Tennessee Titans only got two, despite having the second pick in the draft and having four more selections than Carolina had.
Everything else Fischer says makes sense, but unless he’s defining impact as instant Day 1 starters from the moment training camp opens, the Panthers really didn’t fare too badly.
Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: C+
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We finally have an analyst who is willing to give out below-average grades! While Prisco avoided flunking anyone outright for their draft performance, the Buffalo Bills actually managed to get a D. The Panthers ended up only ahead of four teams despite having an above-average grade, but at least Prisco pointed out a draft he outright didn’t like.
Here’s his overall analysis:
"I think Panthers GM Dave Gettleman does a good job. But I have questions about the first two picks. Thompson is a good player, but there were bigger needs. Devin Funchess is another bigger, stronger receiver, like what they have in Kelvin Benjamin. Good players, but weird positions.
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He questions why the Panthers didn’t go offensive line with their first selection. The answer for that, at least in part, is that D.J. Humphries went with the previous pick to Arizona. The other top-rated tackle that was available, T.J. Clemmings, plummeted to the fourth round over injury concerns. I think if Humphries had been available, they would have taken him, but instead went with who they likely felt was the best player available at a different position rather than reach. That’s good strategy.
Now, I might have taken receiver Breshad Perriman with that first pick. They could have probably found Shaq Thompson at some point in the second round, even trading up to go get him if they were afraid he was going to fall. Still, not reaching for a tackle simply because it was the biggest need is something to praise, rather than criticize.
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Evan Silva, Rotoworld: C+
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Silva notes that the buzzword for Gettleman this year was “aggressiveness,” noting that Gettleman believes he “secured two Week 1 starters and perhaps three.” Silva notes that he wasn’t a big fan of some of the players Gettleman targeted before the draft but admits that “needs were addressed” and that his own player evaluations can be “imprecise.”
While he had “mixed feelings” about Funchess as a prospect, he thinks that he fits in Carolina to help compensate for Cam Newton’s imprecise ball-placement skills. He calls Williams “pro-ready,” in contrast to Mel Kiper, and has positive things to say about Thompson and Artis-Payne as well.
All in all, however, he wishes the Panthers had used more of their picks rather than trading up, noting they’re still weak at edge rusher, cornerback and offensive line.
The C+ grade only puts Carolina ahead of four squads, but Silva did hand out two D grades, to Arizona and San Francisco.
Silva is right about the trades, in my book. The Panthers gave up a lot of value in this draft as they targeted specific players they wanted. It’s putting all of their eggs in very few baskets and makes every selection that much more crucial to get right.
According to the classic Jimmy Johnson trade chart, which can be found here, the Panthers gave up 563 points of “draft value” for 582 points—a net gain, in other words. That means their trades were logical, right?
Well, not quite. The Jimmy Johnson chart, while still used by most NFL teams and a lot better than what came before it, was basically based on Johnson’s hunches and instincts, and there are some issues with it. The top 10 picks, for example, are horrendously overpriced to the point where any trade up into that range is almost prohibitively expensive.
Chase Stuart of Football Perspective used actual historical results to re-jigger the traditional chart. If you want the nitty-gritty details on how it was done, he has a great post on it here, but basically, the Jimmy Johnson chart overvalues the first round and undervalues the third through fifth rounds when you look at what the actual average player has done in each slot in NFL history.
Using that method, the Panthers gave up 21.85 points of value and received 16.1 points in return. You get similar results if you use much more complex models like the Massey-Thaler model. In short, in a world where everyone sticks to the Jimmy Johnson trade chart, you can “beat the system” by trading down.
Now, if Gettleman is sure that Funchess and Williams are going to be starters, then it was worth trading for them no matter what he had to give up for them. Lacking a crystal ball, however, I prefer teams that move back and get more chances at picking stars.
Ross Jones, Fox: C
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Jones points out that it’s “hard to criticize general manager Dave Gettleman” after he had eight rookies playing against the Seahawks last year in the divisional round. Thompson is a “versatile, playmaking defender,” but the offensive line could have been shored up “earlier in the draft.”
After saying it’s hard to criticize Gettleman, Jones proceeded to give only one team a worse grade in the entire league—the Dallas Cowboys, with the dreaded C-.
I think it’s actually pretty easy to criticize Dave Gettleman, but my biggest critique of Gettleman would be...not trusting Dave Gettleman! Gettleman was trading out of picks left and right, but he’s managed to find players like A.J. Klein, Tre Boston and Bene Benwikere late in the last two drafts.
By trading up so much, Gettleman didn’t really give Gettleman much of a chance to find valuable picks late. It’s looking now like 2014, which saw the Panthers bring in six selections, was about the busiest Gettleman likes to be on draft day.
Final Grades
6 of 6Mel Kiper: C
Brian Fischer: C+
Pete Prisco: C+
Evan Silva: C+
Ross Jones: C
Bleacher Report: C+
It’s funny. I disagree with each of the five graders above because of their reluctance to give out low grades, and I disagree that the Panthers have one of the bottom three or four drafts this season. Thus, giving them a C grade when no one gets worse than a C seems overly harsh.
At the same time, however, I end up giving them the same grade that essentially everyone else has. Why? Because if you expand the actual grades given to hand out D's to teams like Arizona, Dallas or Buffalo, you lower everyone’s grade somewhat.
The Panthers had an average draft—there was nothing that amazed me or made me want to run to the store to buy a jersey, but there was never a point where you asked what the heck they were doing. Everything they did made logical sense and played into a coherent draft strategy, which is worth something in and of itself.
I don’t feel like they bamboozled the league, nor do I feel like they were pulling names out of a hat. That’s an average draft, and it deserves an average grade.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the Carolina Panthers during the NFL Draft. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
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