NFL Mock Draft 2015: Projections for Most Polarizing 1st-Round Prospects

During the final lead-up to the 2015 NFL draft, separating a team's true information from deliberately leaked misinformation is one of the media's toughest tasks.  With draft boards essentially finalized, organizations are now attempting to manipulate prospect stock for their own gains.  In this poker game, the number of bluffs equals or even exceeds the genuinely truthful information that reaches our ears.

One of the byproducts of this is that we get to hone in on some prospects seen as especially divisive in the scouting community.  Draftniks have spent months poking and prodding at the likes of Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota, but there are plenty of other players who elicit a wide range of opinions.  As teams solidify their first-round plans, those are the names that have come to the forefront in recent weeks.

Taking a stab at the first round, let's highlight a few players who could fall into that category, whether because of character, injury or skill set concerns—or some combination of all three.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4	Oakland Raiders	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
6	New York Jets	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
7	Chicago Bears	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
8	Atlanta Falcons	Bud Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
14	Miami Dolphins	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
15	San Francisco 49ers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
16	Houston Texans	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
17	San Diego Chargers	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
19	Cleveland Browns (from Buffalo)	Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
21	Cincinnati Bengals	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
25	Carolina Panthers	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
26	Baltimore Ravens	Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
27	Dallas Cowboys	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
28	Denver Broncos	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
29	Indianapolis Colts	Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri
30	Green Bay Packers	Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA
31	New Orleans Saints (from Seattle)	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
32	New England Patriots	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC

Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska

Regardless of one's political stance on marijuana, it's undeniably imbecilic to fail a test that everyone sees coming.  Randy Gregory may be one of the draft's best pure edge-rushers, but after flunking the drug test at the scouting combine, commitment issues might push him down in a class filled with capable pass-rushers.

On the field, Gregory is certainly not a flawless prospect, largely because of questions about whether he'll have the frame to hold up in the NFL.  After bulking up to 235 pounds for the event in Indianapolis, Gregory apparently failed to maintain the requisite bulk at subsequent workouts, leading to speculation that these red flags could push him out of Day 1 entirely, according to CBS Sports' Pete Prisco and B/R's Dan Pompei:

And yet, even if he's only a sub-package rushing specialist to begin his career, that could still make him a first-rounder given the insatiable thirst for pass pressure in today's game.  Gregory's incredible bend and speed (4.64-second 40-yard dash) are reminiscent of the Denver Broncos' Von Miller, as he'll constantly challenge offensive tackles to drop quickly and at proper angles to prevent immediate backfield penetration.

Yes, he could use a little more diversity in his pass-rushing arsenal, but given the power he showed at Nebraska, it's likely that Gregory could develop counter and speed-to-power pass rushes in due time.  But he's certainly not a natural fit for 4-3 defenses, and questions about his program fit could push him down into the latter half of the first round.

Jalen Collins, CB, LSU 

In an intriguing but flawed cornerback class, Jalen Collins might as well be the poster child.  NFL.com's Albert Breer previously reported that the LSU product failed multiple drug tests in college, raising character concerns to go along with questions about his experience.

However, the 6'1", 203-pound Collins possesses ideal size for a league trending towards press-man coverage schemes.  Arguably no corner has the same combination of speed (4.48-second 40-yard dash), length and strength.  Though nuanced route-runners gave him trouble—the film often shows Collins opening his hips early and revealing his hand—Pro Football Focus' Sam Monson suggests that Collins could turn into this year's best cornerback with some fixable technique adjustments: 

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Despite those flaws, he was able to perform pretty well against top competition, limiting [Alabama's] Amari Cooper to four receptions, 47 yards and a touchdown from seven targets.  In fact, Collins allowed just 18 receptions all season long, and though he only had one interception, he did break up seven passes.  Between those coverage numbers and his [measurables], he has big potential and could be a fine corner if he irons out the inconsistencies in his technique.

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That's a common sentiment among draftniks.  Nevertheless, Collins started just 10 games for a relatively callow squad in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, raising questions as to why that talent never translated into someone who earned consistent snaps, even at the college level.  Consequently, some analysts believe that the gap between his ceiling and floor is too great to warrant a first-round investment, including B/R's Dan Hope:

In truth, Collins is probably a better value on Day 2 than in the final 10 picks of the first round.  But if top guys like Michigan State's Trae Waynes, Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson and Washington's Marcus Peters go off the board early, it wouldn't be surprising to see a team take the leap rather than risk missing out on the top cornerback tier altogether.

Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike most years, there's no consensus stud left tackle guaranteed to go in the top five.  Iowa's Brandon Scherff, LSU's La'el Collins and Florida State's Cameron Erving, arguably the top three offensive linemen in this class, could all reasonably start their careers at guard (or center, in Erving's case).  Thus, Stanford's Andrus Peat stands out as one of the few bona fide left tackle prospects in the first round, a plus that some believe will keep his stock high, including Peter Schrager of Fox Sports:

And yet, there really isn't much buzz surrounding the hulking 6'7", 313-pound prospect.  That seems hard to believe given Peat's measurables, but according to NFL.com's Chase Goodbread, a pair of league scouts ripped Peat's film and portrayed him as soft and overrated:

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"I saw him get thrown around like a rag doll," the scout said.  "I respect what people think about the guy, but every defensive player I saw against Stanford kicked the [s--t] out of the guy.  If you're asking me who was the most overrated guy I saw, it was that guy." ...

"He's got damn good feet but...the last bowl game against Maryland he looked like [s--t]," he said.  "He's the No. 1 guy, but he's never been pushed.  He doesn't have any core strength.  He doesn't take hard coaching."

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Indeed, Peat does face questions about his aggressiveness, as he often plays a surprisingly defensive style, especially when facing speed rushers.  A lot of his issues are technique-related—Peat tends to bend at the waist and lose balance, while his drop step in pass protection isn't always at the proper angle—but if the mentality concerns are legitimate, that might erase whatever natural tools he possesses.

Peat is highly unlikely to fall out of the first round, and even if he falls as low as No. 25 to the Carolina Panthers, that situation would offer him an opportunity to start from Day 1.  But it's also not hard to envision Peat struggling as he adjusts to the league and losing confidence, making him a frustrating proposition.