2015 NFL Draft: Playing Fact or Fiction with All the Latest Rumors
It's almost go time!
In just two short days, the 2015 NFL draft will kick off in Chicago when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go on the clock with the No. 1 overall pick.
By the time the Arizona Cardinals pick "Mr. Irrelevant" two days later, 256 players will have have heard their names called.
And we'll have read approximately 37 times that many rumors about them.
Actually, that number's probably low. Really low.
However, there's still dirt to be dished and scoops to be, well, scooped. (I went to public school, OK? Don't judge me.)
With that in mind, here's a look at the latest hullabaloo, as well as my best guess as to whether that hullabaloo is a bunch of bunk and/or hokum.
Sorry. I got word-of-the-day toilet paper for my birthday.
The Latest on Marcus Mariota
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The first pick in the draft seems to be a foregone conclusion. If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select anyone other than Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston at No. 1, there's going to be a lot of this at the Auditorium Theatre.
However, where Oregon signal-caller Marcus Mariota is concerned, there's no such certainty.
In fact, there probably isn't a player in this year's draft class generating more speculation that the reigning Heisman Trophy winner.
RUMOR: The San Diego Chargers are pursuing a trade with the Tennessee Titans that would net the Bolts the No. 2 overall pick (and Mariota).
This one's been making the rounds for the past couple of weeks, and despite general manager Tom Telesco's assertion to Eric Williams of ESPN that trading veteran quarterback Philip Rivers "isn't on the team's radar," more and more mock drafts (including the latest from Doug Farrar at Sports Illustrated) have the Chargers moving up to No. 2.
VERDICT: Fiction
Were it not for Rivers' comments about playing in L.A. (he doesn't want to) a month or so ago, this deal would be filed under lunacy. And Rivers' reluctance for La-La Land aside, it's still kooky.
Five-time Pro Bowl quarterbacks don't get traded until their wheels are already falling off. Rivers isn't getting any younger, but he's still easily a top-10 option at the position. The Chargers can franchise him in 2016 whether they're in San Diego, Los Angeles or Rancho Cucamonga.
Mariota-for-Rivers isn't happening, folks.
RUMOR: The Cleveland Browns are eying a trade up for Mariota using their two (No. 12 and No. 19) first-round picks in the 2015 NFL draft.
Given the Browns' dire situation at quarterback and the fact the team has a pair of first-rounders this year, connecting the dots on this one doesn't exactly take a Rhodes Scholar.
The rumor grew legs last week when Cleveland general manager Ray Farmer told Mary Kay Cabot of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, "Sure, why not?," when asked if he would trade No. 12 and No. 19 for Mariota.
VERDICT: Fact
Mind you, this isn't to say it will happen. But the Browns have the draft capital, and team owner Jimmy Haslam has done everything short of placing an ad on FranchiseQuarterbackDate.com to procure the mythical "franchise quarterback" he so desperately covets.
Of all the trade speculation concerning Mariota, this is easily the most plausible scenario.
RUMOR: The Philadelphia Eagles are pursuing a three-team trade with the Browns and Titans that would reunite Mariota and Chip Kelly in Philly.
This is the latest Mariota-to-Philadelphia scuttlebutt, courtesy of Mark Eckel of NJ.com:
"One rumor, making its rounds in NFL personnel meetings, has the Eagles dealing Bradford to the Browns for the 19th overall pick. It's been widely reported that the Browns offered that 19th pick to the St. Louis Rams for Bradford before the Rams traded him to the Eagles for Nick Foles and a 2016 second-round pick. Despite reports that Bradford, in the final year of his contract, would not sign an extension with Cleveland, the Browns are said to still have interest.
The Eagles would then send picks Nos. 19 and 20, along with Cox and Kendricks to the Tennessee Titans for the No. 2 pick Philly would use to select Mariota.
"
You have to give Kelly this. Boring, he ain't.
VERDICT: Fiction
On paper, this deal actually makes more than a little sense if Kelly really does want Mariota that badly. The Titans get two first-rounders and a pair of young starters. The Browns get the quarterback they want without giving up both of their firsts to get it.
And Kelly and Mariota get to karaoke "Peaches and Herb."
According to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, even Bradford's starting to doubt whether's he's long for the City of Brotherly Love:
"Bradford doesn't know where he's going to be. Yes, he believes the Eagles are going to keep him at this point in time, trust them, but only so far because the [2015 NFL draft] has not played out. So he believes there is still a possibility that he could be traded somewhere else. And if that's the case, he wants to wait to see whether that's a team he ultimately wants to stay with long-term.
"
Still, there are just too many moving parts for this to be more than imagination, and even the Browns aren't dumb enough to deal a first-round pick for one year of Sam Bradford.
Besides, that karaoke duet would have been awkward.
The Skinny on Randy Gregory
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Hold on—I want to bask in the glow of that slide title for a second.
Ah. That's better.
RUMOR: Nebraska edge-rusher Randy Gregory's stock has fallen so far that many NFL teams are expecting him to be available at the end of Round 1.
The past few months haven't been kind to Gregory. So much so, in fact, that NFL Network's Mike Mayock reported (via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk) that teams picking at the back end of Round 1 may now have a decision on their hands.
“I’ve had a bunch of teams in the bottom half of the first round going, uh oh, we’ve got to be all over this guy from our owner, because you might have to bring him into this conversation, from our owner down to our coaching staff,” Mayock said.
VERDICT: Fact
Given how things have gone for Gregory since February, it's next to impossible to dismiss this wholly as a smoke screen generated by teams hoping that Gregory would slide on April 30.
First, there was Gregory's failed drug test at the combine, a test for which Gregory "blames [him]self," according to Kimberly Jones of NFL.com.
Yeah, Randy. That's sort of how it works unless you were ambushed by a bong—which usually only happens during bong mating season in May.
Then came news that Gregory had lost weight after bulking up for Nebraska's pro day—to the tune of weighing less than 230 pounds, per Bleacher Report's Dan Pompei.
Wait? Smoking pot and losing weight? I don't think he's doing it right.
Add it all up, and it's hardly a stretch to imagine a player who once was viewed as a top-five pick in many circles falling well into the 20s on Thursday night.
Adrian Peterson Update
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It appears the situation between the Minnesota Vikings and star running back Adrian Peterson is about to come to a head. According to Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press, if the 30-year-old is going to be traded, it's going to happen either before or during the 2015 NFL draft.
"If he's not traded next week, they're going to keep him," a source told Tomasson.
Tomasson lists the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Diego Chargers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers as potential landing spots.
RUMOR: Only three NFL teams (Arizona, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay) have any real interest in trading for the 2012 NFL MVP.
That's the latest from Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports (via Arizona Sports 98.7 FM), who added that the Atlanta Falcons could lurk as a potential dark-horse contender for Peterson's services.
Robinson was also quick to rule out the Dallas Cowboys, who have long been rumored to be among the front-runners were Peterson to be dealt:
"Whoever says otherwise is 1,000 percent wrong. The Cowboys have not spoken to the Minnesota Vikings about Adrian Peterson. It has not happened. They haven't offered a draft pick, they have not picked up the telephone to talk to the Minnesota Vikings about Adrian Peterson. It simply has not happened.
"
You can't argue with math.
VERDICT: Fiction
And yet, I'm going to anyway.
I'm not alone. David Moore of The Dallas Morning News insists that, protestations to the contrary aside, the Cowboys can't be ruled out:
"The draft provides some intriguing, cost-effective options to Murray. But what if Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon are gone _ and it appears they will be _ before the Cowboys pick at No. 27? What if the Cowboys spot in the second round (No. 60) is too late to acquire Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi or T.J. Yeldon?
The allure of Peterson goes beyond his star quality and accomplishments on the football field. The Cowboys must consider him because the club must consider it will be frozen out of the rookie running back it wants if they stay at No. 27 and No. 60.
Would the Cowboys give up a draft pick to move higher into the first or second round to secure a player they want? Sure. They do it all the time. They could justify doing the same for Peterson.
"
Yes, it's a stretch.
So is any trade scenario involving Peterson. This rumor is fiction not because the Cowboys might still be in it, but because I doubt that three (or four) other teams actually are.
The fact is, the Vikings haven't said or done anything to indicate they're in any sort of hurry to deal Peterson, regardless of how he feels about staying in Minnesota.
In fact, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com, "Vikings have said publicly and privately, he plays for them or no one. Would take a lot to tempt them. Maybe too much."
To change their minds will take overpaying. A lot. And overpaying for a 30-year-old tailback (even one as talented as "All Day") is just begging for trouble.
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Matt Forte on the Move?
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Of course, Peterson isn't the only veteran running back trade speculations has been swirling around.
In fact, Peterson isn't the only veteran running back in the NFC North who's getting run through the rumor mill.
RUMOR: The Chicago Bears are exploring trade possibilities for disgruntled running back Matt Forte.
This rumor's been floating around for a couple of months now, and it started, at least after a fashion, with Forte.
Back in February, Forte tweeted out a link to an article questioning whether the 29-year-old should be traded with the caption, "What y'all think about this Bear fans?" The seven-year veteran followed that up with, "A lot of football left in me. I want to play them for the Chicago Bears and retire a lifelong Bear. But they have to want the same thing..."
That was all it took to get people talking, and with the draft being held in Chicago this year, a possible Forte trade has been a hot topic among talking heads.
VERDICT: Fiction
However, as Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune recently pointed out, whether the Bears want to trade Forte really isn't the point:
"Even if the Bears were motivated to deal Forte, I'm not sure there would be a robust market for him. I say that for a couple reasons: For starters, this is considered a solid draft class for running backs. I talked to one NFC college scouting director who is confident you can find a quality starter in the third or fourth round. Forte is 29 and he is only under contract for one more season at $8.2 million in 2015. So, a team would be inheriting a big dollar player and have control of him for only one season. That makes the chances the Bears could get any fair value for Forte seem remote to me.
"
Simply put, the odds of the Bears getting any real return for an aging running back with over 1,800 career carries on his tires just aren't good.
Also, while Forte was a no-show for the Bears' recent voluntary workouts, and he'd certainly like a new contract (wouldn't we all?), it's a long way before the word "holdout" is in play.
As Forte himself said, "Relax everybody... It's called voluntary W/O for a reason. I've always been there especially when it counts!"
Knee Problems for Jay Ajayi?
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It happens every year about this time.
Every season, players about to enter the NFL draft suddenly become injury concerns. Or character problems. Or both.
Two years ago, San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen slid to the third round after a report surfaced just before the draft regarding a "red-flagged" drug test at that year's combine.
A scathing rebuke indeed—if it had happened, which it didn't.
In 2015, it looks like the leading candidate for a trip through the mud is Boise State running back Jay Ajayi, who became the first running back in FBS history to top 1,800 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards for the Broncos last year.
RUMOR: NFL teams have dropped Ajayi on their boards over concerns about the long-term viability of his right knee.
As Dane Brugler of CBS Sports reported:
"According to league sources, he is ready to play right now, but the question is longevity of the knee and how long will it hold up? Team doctors are unable to pinpoint a timetable with that question. ...
While I expect Ajayi to be drafted, there is a good chance it is later than most expected.
"
It wasn't just Brugler either. Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insider also joined the fray, writing, "last week I was informed a number of teams red flagged Ajayi over a knee injury he sustained early in his college career."
VERDICT: Fiction
There's just one problem. As Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk pointed out, the genesis for these rumors was supposedly the combine medical recheck in Indianapolis.
And according to Ajayi's agent, he wasn't even there.
The dreaded ghost knee, scourge of NFL draft prospects since the invention of, well, lying.
In some ways, it's almost a compliment to Ajayi. Odds are an NFL team (or teams) quite interested in Ajayi spawned this rumor. So much so that they're willing to blow smoke in the hopes he falls to them.
Still, we're talking about a knee injury that happened in 2011. A knee injury about which not a peep was said at February's combine, when players are poked and prodded to within an inch of their lives.
In other words, a knee injury that's a nonissue.
Gurley Surging into Top 10?
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Jay Ajayi's knee may reportedly be giving some NFL teams pause, but the tailback many consider the best player at his position in 2015 is having no such issues.
Quite the opposite, as despite suffering an ACL tear last year, Georgia's Todd Gurley is surging up draft boards.
RUMOR: Georgia running back Todd Gurley won't make it out of the top 10 on April 30.
At least, based on the opinion of a number of draftniks, who have Gurley moving up in their most recent mocks.
Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz of USA Today slotted Gurley to the New York Jets at No. 6:
"If fully healthy, Gurley would give the Jets the best short- and long-term value of any player available here. The Georgia running back could be eased into the lineup but eventually take over as the centerpiece of Chan Gailey's offense.
"
Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, on the other hand, believes that Gurley will fall two spots further, to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8:
"One could make the argument that Gurley is the most talented player in this draft class so to get him with the eighth pick could prove to be excellent value for Atlanta. With Steven Jackson no longer on the roster, Devonta Freeman and Gurley would be a fun duo to watch.
"
Looks like that first-round drought at the running back spot is about to get got.
VERDICT: Fact
Now, were Gurley to drop from the top 10, it would not exactly be the first time draftniks were off on a pick. To say that mock drafts are an inexact science infers that there's something scientific about it.
Still, this is more than just mock drafters killing time before the big day finally arrives.
As Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reported, ESPN's Mel Kiper doesn't think we'd even be having this conversation had Gurley not gotten hurt:
"Certainly, Todd Gurley would have been a top 15 running back, top 10 to 15 back, had he not gotten hurt. He's elite, and he's got a chance to be a great player in this league if he can stay healthy. He's coming off that injury, how much production are you going to get out of him as a rookie? Are you willing to maybe redshirt him or know that you're not going to get him at his best this year? It'll be maybe Year 2 when you start to see him at a complete 100%.
"
The thing is, that knee is looking less and less like a problem.
As NFL Media's Ian Rapoport reports, Gurley's knee checked out fine at the combine medical recheck, and a recent Instagram post from Gurley would appear to show that his recovery is proceeding well.
Mind you, this isn't to say that drafting Gurley in the top 10 is a good idea. Bleacher Report's Chris Simms didn't mince words in that regard, stating that a top-10 pick for Gurley would be one of the "dumbest picks in the history of NFL draft."
However, a healthy Gurley is head and shoulders the best player at his position in a draft where more spots than not are muddied.
And it only takes one team.
Bump Up for Beasley?
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It's a deep class of edge-rushers in this year's NFL draft, and while Randy Gregory's stock is dropping, Clemson linebacker Vic Beasley is holding steady.
In fact, word has surfaced that at least one NFL team may not be willing to wait their turn where Beasley is concerned.
RUMOR: The New Orleans Saints are considering using their two first-round picks (No. 13 and No. 31) to move up and select Clemson edge-rusher Vic Beasley.
According to Tony Pauline of TFY Draft Insider, "I'm told the New Orleans Saints will consider trading up if they feel they are in striking distance of Vic Beasley. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan loves Beasley's pass rushing ability and potential in a 3-4."
The 6'3", 246-pound Beasley racked up 21.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks for the Tigers a season ago.
VERDICT: Fact
This is one of those potential deals that almost makes too much sense not to happen.
Lack of a pass rush was a big issue for the 2014 Saints, who checked in at 25th in the NFL with 34 sacks. Were the Saints to move up and grab Beasley, he'd all but certainly play full-time from the moment he got into town.
Frankly, this one may well come down to how far the Saints have to move up, what that would cost and what the board looks like when the time comes to make a decision on April 30.
In other words, is Beasley in the top 10 worth the cost (likely No. 31) versus the guys on the board at 13?
Of course, assuming there's some truth to this report, it becoming public knowledge isn't exactly helping the Saints' bargaining position, even for a slight move up.
Who Is the Draft's Top Cornerback?
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For most of the past few months, the general consensus has been that Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes would be the first player at his position selected in the 2015 NFL draft.
Well, just before draft day, it appears the times they may be a-changing.
RUMOR: Wake Forest cornerback Kevin Johnson has passed Waynes on a number of NFL teams' draft boards.
That's the latest from Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, who wrote Sunday that, "With the draft four days away, we’re told that multiple teams have Johnson ahead of Waynes. If one of those teams ends up on the clock and decides to take a corner, Johnson will go before Waynes."
Bleacher Report NFL Draft Lead Writer Matt Miller ranks Johnson fourth among this year's cornerbacks, behind Waynes, Ronald Darby of Florida State and Washington's Marcus Peters.
VERDICT: Fact
I'm not saying that Johnson is the top cornerback in this year's class, or that he'll even be the first cornerback selected. With that said, though, it can't be entirely dismissed either.
This year's cornerback class is fairly deep, but it isn't especially top-heavy. There's a handful of players for whom an argument can be made as this year's top rookie corner.
Of course, for his part, Johnson told Terez Paylor of The Kansas City Star that the decision is an easy one: "I’m the best cornerback in the draft. I think I’m a lockdown cornerback. I think I have excellent feet, hips, ball skills. I’m a competitor. I’m a student of the game and I’m a playmaker."
The only question now is if an NFL team is buying what Johnson is selling.
Draft Day Slide for Leonard Williams?
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He won't be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft, but Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com ranks USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams as the top prospect at any position in this year's class.
As Bob Socci of CBS Boston reports, Albert Breer of NFL Network called the 6'5", 302-pounder a "sure thing":
"Leonard Williams from USC can play a bunch of different positions along the defensive line. He’s a freak athlete. I mentioned the youth in this draft; he’s a young junior. He’s a guy who you’ve already seen a lot of potential from. There’s a thought out there that because he’s a younger player he’s only going to get that much better.
"
Well, if Williams is such a sure bet, then why is his NFL landing spot still so up in the air?
RUMOR: Despite being considered one of the draft's top overall talents, USC defensive tackle Leonard Williams could fall out of the top five.
This talk hasn't been borne of any one particular source, but more of a combination of reports.
First, Tennessee Titans beat writer Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean tweeted that he doesn't see the Titans making Williams the No. 2 overall pick.
"I see USC's Leonard Williams to Titans in a lot of mock drafts," Wyatt wrote. "He's a great player, but I don't see that happening."
Then Washington general manager Scot McCloughan said during his predraft press conference that the Redskins were unlikely to take Williams at No. 5, pre Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk, although a trade could be on the table:
"It might bring a trade more into play. We do feel good about our defensive front. A pass rusher, that’s the most important thing. They’re hard to find. We’re very lucky to have Ryan [Kerrigan] on the team, he’s one of those players, and hopefully not just in the first but throughout this draft we’ll add more pass rushers.
"
The plot thickens.
VERDICT: Fact
Mind you, it would be full-on kooky if Williams falls from the top five. As Lance Zierlein of NFL.com wrote, "Williams should be able to match the athleticism with the power and become a consistent Pro Bowler with a ceiling that goes even higher than that."
He's that good.
However, if the Buccaneers take Jameis Winston, the Titans trade down, Jacksonville drafts an edge-rusher and Oakland addresses the offensive side of the ball...
That trade with Washington would be the only thing standing between Williams and dropping from the top five altogether.
It's nuts—but it's plausible.
Playmate for Odell Beckham in the Big Apple?
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The Class of 2014 was as loaded at wide receiver as any in recent memory. However, even in a year where rookie wideouts blew up left and right, Odell Beckham of the New York Giants stood out.
Maybe it was the 1,300 receiving yards. Or the 12 touchdowns. Or the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Or maybe it was this.
In any event, it appears the Giants could be considering revisiting the first-round receiver route in the 2015 NFL draft.
RUMOR: The New York Giants are looking at drafting a wide receiver in the first round for the second consecutive year.
That's the latest from Ralph Vacchiano of the New York Daily News, who reported over the weekend that if things break the right way it could be deja vu all over again for Big Blue:
"Some in the NFL can envision at least one of the top two receivers — Alabama’s Amari Cooper or West Virginia’s Kevin White — slipping into the Giants’ lap. And if they do, several Giants sources insisted drafting yet another receiver will get strong consideration.
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That would make Eli Manning almost as happy as a new contract.
VERDICT: Fiction
Or maybe an offensive lineman.
As Vacchiano wrote, just because the Giants could take one of those young pass-catchers at No. 9 doesn't mean that they should:
"But Giants general manager Jerry Reese must resist. This is the time and the draft to focus on the offensive line.
It’s been a long time coming, really, and there are plenty of people inside the Giants’ organization who feel that way. You can blame the last two miserable seasons on whatever you want, but nothing has been a bigger root cause than the play of an offensive line that has often hovered between mediocre and disastrous. There were people in the Giants’ draft room last year, in fact, who wanted an offensive lineman — Zack Martin or, had he been available, Taylor Lewan — over receiver Odell Beckham Jr.
Obviously Reese made the right choice on that one. But that still leaves the line as a position of dire need.
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Also, with Cris Collinsworth of NBC Sports saying on PFT Live (via Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk) that “up to 11 or 12 (wide receivers), quality wise, who in any other year you would say, ‘That’s a first-round talent’,” the odds of the Giants finding an impact receiver at pick No. 40 is much better than along the offensive front.
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