Miami Dolphins Should Not Draft Todd Gurley with the 14th Overall Selection

The Miami Dolphins hold the 14th overall selection of the 2015 NFL Draft and Georgia running back Todd Gurley is staring right at them.  Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel claims Miami general manager Dennis Hickey has a "man crush" on Gurley.  ESPN.com's Todd McShay currently has the junior tailback ranked as his 11th-best prospect for the upcoming draft, comparing him to Marshawn Lynch.  Gurley has separated himself from Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon as this draft's best running back and Miami certainly has a need for a strong inside runner.  While it may seem like a marriage made in heaven, the Dolphins should avoid Gurley on draft day.

First and foremost, Gurley is damaged goods.  On November 15, 2014, the Bulldog rusher tore his left knee's ACL.  A study presented at the 2013 meeting of the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine shows that athletes who undergo ACL reconstruction surgery are six times as likely to suffer another injury within two years on the same ACL or that of the opposite knee.  There is also the chance that Gurley will never recover his pre-injury form.  Adrian Peterson's recovery from his devastating knee injury is an anomaly, not the standard.

Predicting which top collegiate rushers will have success in the NFL is also very difficult.  Since 2000, 17 running backs have been drafted in the top half of the first round.  Of the 17, only five have had production proportional to their lofty draft status.  It cannot be disputed that Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marshawn Lynch and Jamal Lewis were worthy of high first-round selections.  Thomas Jones is a borderline success story because of the consistency and longevity of his career.  Though unspectacular, Jones rushed for more than 10,000 yards in his NFL career.

Just as it is difficult to gauge the top NCAA tailbacks, talented rushers are often overlooked.  Of the 16 players who led the league in rushing in 2014, nine were drafted in the third round or later, including the rushing champion, DeMarco Murray.  Of those nine, three were undrafted (Arian Foster, Joique Bell, C.J. Anderson), Justin Forsett was drafted in the seventh round and Alfred Morris in the sixth. 

Another argument against drafting Gurley with the 14th pick is the lack of value.  Cornerback Kyle Fuller, who was the 14th player drafted in 2014, signed a fully-guaranteed, four-year deal worth $9,687,002, according to Spotrac.com.  If Gurley received a similar contract, earning approximately $2.5 million annually, he would be a moderately paid running back.  Reggie Bush recently signed a one-year deal worth $2.5 million with the San Francisco 49ers.  After his breakout 2014 season, Justin Forsett signed a three-year deal worth $3 million annually.  Another Georgia running back with a first-round pedigree who is also coming off an ACL tear can be had for less than $2.5 million annually without using a draft pick.  His name is Knowshon Moreno.

The Dolphins would find more value by drafting a wide receiver or a cornerback.  According to Spotrac.com, 53 receivers and 50 cornerbacks make more than $2.5 million annually.

Gurley is recovering from a serious injury and there is no guarantee that he is the next Herschel Walker.  As is always the case, capable rushers will be found past the second round of the 2015 NFL draft.  Finally, Miami's salary cap situation is better aided by drafting a position other than running back in the first round.

While Gurley would be a fantastic option for Miami if he slipped into the second round, the Dolphins should ignore him with their 14th selection.