Ranking the Top 50 MLB Players at the Start of the 2015 Regular Season
The 2015 Major League Baseball season begins Sunday night. That means we're very close to watching the game's best players doing the things they do.
With that in mind, we better get on the same page about who the game's best players are. It's time for a good old-fashioned Internet ranking.
Ahead of you are the top 50 players in MLB heading into the 2015 season. The list contains many of the same players in the top 50 in the MLB 500 series, but it's far from a carbon copy.
This top 50 doesn't have a strict scoring system, so I ranked players with my better instincts and my heart as well as my head. That process involved weighing players' track records in addition to their 2014 performances—and for position players, this means defense and baserunning as well as hitting—and also their ages and any injury concerns.
As for sources, most of the links you'll come across will take you to Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. Others will take you to Baseball Prospectus, Brooks Baseball and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready, and feel free to argue to your heart's content when you're done.
The Just-Missed List
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Before we get going with the top 50, let's throw a bone to players whom I very seriously considered before they found their way to the cutting room floor. In no particular order, they are:
- Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds: It was hard to leave off a guy with a .950 career OPS, but I don't have enough faith that Votto's battered legs will allow him to return to his vintage form.
- Justin Upton, San Diego Padres: He's slugged 56 home runs with an .826 OPS over the last two seasons, but he's also a one-dimensional player who will be playing at a park that doesn't favor right-handed power hitters.
- Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers: V-Mart just led MLB in OPS at .974, but he's also a 36-year-old DH who's fresh off knee surgery.
- Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles: A healthy Machado is a capable hitter and an elite defender, but it's hard to bank on his health knowing that he's had both knees surgically repaired since the fall of 2013.
- Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals: He's so "overrated" that he's actually underrated at this point, but even a Harper optimist/apologist has a hard time getting over his recent injury woes.
- Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays: He's done no worse than a .900 OPS or 34 home runs in the last three seasons, but he's also a 32-year-old DH with durability question marks.
- Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: He's criminally overlooked on the national landscape, but I need to see more production away from Coors Field before buying Arenado as an elite player.
- Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds: A catcher with power like his is a rare thing indeed, but Mesoraco's big 2014 breakout was too power-oriented for my tastes.
- Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros: He has an excellent sinker/slider combo that led to a 2.93 ERA in 2014, but his ground-ball style may not mesh as well with Houston's downgraded infield defense.
- James Shields, San Diego Padres: It's hard to ignore Shields' track record, but his age (33), declining changeup and potentially dreadful outfield defense make it easy to downplay it.
That does it for the not-quite-top-50, so let's get on with the real thing.
50. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
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Before 2014, Jose Altuve was best known as that really little guy. You know, the one who was just good enough on a bad enough club to make the All-Star team in 2012.
But then the 5'6" Altuve led the league in batting average at .341 and in hits with 225, and he also stole 56 bases. The key was him doing what needed to be done and cutting down on his strikeouts. Combined with an all-fields approach, that allowed him to become an on-base machine who could tear up the basepaths.
To expect Altuve to put up another .340-ish average is asking a lot, which is slightly concerning, knowing that his shortcomings in the walks, power and defense departments mean he really needs to be an outstanding hitter to remain a star in what will be his age-25 season.
But provided he maintains what worked for him last year, Altuve should be able to keep hitting well over .300 and stealing plenty of bases. That'll allow him to retain more than a small level of stardom.
49. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox
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Heading into his age-31 season, Dustin Pedroia has the hint of a player in decline. He hit only .278 in 2014, and his speed (only six steals) appears to be fading as quickly as his power.
And yet, Pedroia still managed to find himself in the 4-5 WAR range whether you ask Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs. That he continued to play outstanding defense at second base explains a lot of that, but there's also how a .278 average and .712 OPS is still above average by today's standards.
This highlights how Pedroia still has a star-level floor even if he is in fact declining. And though one hesitates to buy into his confidence that his power will make a comeback in 2015 after left wrist surgery, Sean McAdam of CSN New England is buying it:
"This spring, Pedroia has looked far more like himself. The ball has had better carry and, after a more normal offseason during which he could again lift weights, he's stronger than he was at anytime last season.
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Last year was the second season in a row that Pedroia played the whole campaign after suffering an early hand/wrist injury. If he can avoid that fate in 2015, his power should indeed make a comeback and he'll look a lot more like his vintage (read: "very, very good") self.
48. Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels
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The bad news? According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Garrett Richards won't return from left knee surgery by mid-April. He needs some more time to get back in the swing of things.
The good news? The 26-year-old's breakout 2.61 ERA in 2014 is potentially very repeatable.
Richards showed he can handle strikeouts and ground balls. You'd expect as much from a guy with a mid- to high-90s fastball that also has some killer late movement, not to mention his wicked slider. But what helped even further is that Richards was next to impossible to hit for power. As Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs showed, that was largely because nobody could pull the ball against him.
So, Richards is a pitcher who can miss bats and avoid the sweet spot when he doesn't. That's a rare talent, and it should ensure killer production even if his recovery keeps him well short of 200 innings.
47. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
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By his usual standards, Evan Longoria is coming off a down season. He OPS'd only .724 with 22 home runs, and the metrics saw uncharacteristically poor defense at the hot corner.
There are real reasons to be concerned that this may be the start of a decline. Longoria's subpar defense could very well have been the inevitable product of the leg injuries he's suffered throughout his career. Those same injuries could also explain the nosedive that his power took in 2014.
But since Longoria is still only 29, it's very possible that the "one bad year" explanation applies for his 2014 campaign. This may be especially true, given that he was healthy enough to play in all 162 games and that his power quietly began bouncing back in the second half of last season.
If so, it's far from unthinkable that Longoria could get back to his usual antics in 2015. That would call for an OPS in the .850-.900 range, 30 homers and Gold Glove-caliber defense at third. Add it all up, and that's a really, really good player.
46. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
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Matt Harvey spent the entire 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and that operation isn't water under the bridge just yet. The Mets have made it quite clear that he'll be limited in 2015.
But it's OK to have high hopes for Harvey's return to action. When we last saw him on the mound in 2013, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. He authored a 2.27 ERA in 178.1 innings, and even that doesn't do him justice. His 2.00 FIP was the best in the league by a sizable margin.
That's what you can do when you combine a mid- to high-90s fastball with excellent control and two devastating secondaries in a slider and changeup. Now it looks like he's going to have a third in 2015, as he's rediscovered his curveball. And it's looked awesome this spring.
Harvey's limits in his age-26 season may keep his workload to around 160-180 innings. But with enough stuff and command, those 160-180 innings promise to be outstanding.
45. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
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All right, fine. It's impossible not to be worried about Masahiro Tanaka's right elbow. It could go at any minute if his ulnar collateral ligament decides it needs that Tommy John operation after all.
By all accounts, though, Tanaka's elbow is doing just fine. He's in line for a full season of work in his age-26 season, so we can discuss a possible follow-up to an awesome breakthrough in 2014.
Tanaka made only 20 starts in his debut season, but in those, he had a 2.77 ERA and a sterling 6.71 K/BB ratio in 136.1 innings. His splitter was the star of the show, drawing plenty of whiffs and generally looking awesome every time Tanaka threw it. But his slider was an overlooked weapon against right-handed batters, and he was excellent at spotting his hard stuff on the edges.
Apart from the elbow red flag, the concern with Tanaka is that he was homer-prone in his rookie season. But even if that continues, a sub-3.00 ERA and 200-plus innings are in the cards if he can stay healthy.
44. Ben Zobrist, 2B, Oakland Athletics
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According to Baseball-Reference.com, the only two position players with more WAR than Ben Zobrist since 2009 are Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano.
There's your annual reminder of the greatness of Zobrist. And though WAR does exaggerate it somewhat, it's indeed hard not to dig a switch-hitter who can get on base, hit for some power, steal some bases and play quality defense at multiple positions.
Even heading into his age-34 season, Zobrist is a good bet to keep on ticking. His disciplined and contact-oriented approach assure an OBP in the mid- to high .300s, and he should at least flirt with double-digit homers and steals. He should also benefit from playing second base regularly, as it might be his best defensive position.
It's admittedly hard to rave about any of Zobrist's individual skills. But you have to appreciate how they're all solid, as well as how they add up to a darn fine player.
43. Christian Yelich, LF, Miami Marlins
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Christian Yelich doesn't look like an elite player at first glance. He just played his first full season in 2014 and hit only .284 with nine home runs and a .764 OPS. On a scale of "awesome" to "bleh," that's a "meh."
But one thing to keep in mind is that a .764 OPS is pretty good for a guy playing half his games at Marlins Park. Even more important, keep in mind that Yelich is just scratching the surface of his potential as he heads into his age-23 season.
It wouldn't be a surprise if Yelich wins the National League batting title in 2015. He has an outstanding batting eye, and he's better at making contact than his strikeout rate lets on. He also has an uncanny ability to go the other way, and he's hit only one infield pop-up so far (no, seriously).
Yelich's hitting skill set makes him something of a Joey Votto clone. And though he doesn't have Votto's power, he can offer 20-steal speed and well-above-average defense in left field. These things make him a 4-5 WAR player now and give him the potential to be even better.
42. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
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Stephen Strasburg has a 3.10 ERA since 2012, striking out over 10 batters per nine innings and walking only 2.4 batters per nine innings along the way. And in 2014, he notched a career-high 215 innings.
That reads like an introduction of an ace, but the court of public opinion has routinely denied the 26-year-old Strasburg that honor. And in fairness, he definitely could be better.
Strasburg has walks and strikeouts down pat—mainly thanks to how his changeup and curveball are both stupendous whiff pitches—but Tony Blengino of ESPN.com will vouch that limiting hard contact is a real problem for him. He's given up 54 home runs since 2012, mainly on his fastball. That goes to show how mid-90s heat can only do so much to make up for a lack of pinpoint command within the zone.
All the same, Strasburg is actually underrated at this point. Maybe he's not the next Roger Clemens, but any pitcher who can manage a 3.00-ish ERA and a high K/BB ratio in over 200 innings deserves to be perceived as a darn good pitcher.
41. Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
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Not a big believer in Tyson Ross? You should be. The dude was an All-Star in 2014, and both his recent track record and his abilities as a pitcher command respect.
Though Ross' 2.81 ERA in 2014 stands out enough on its own, this is a guy with a 2.89 ERA in 47 starts and over 300 innings dating back to 2013. That's quite the rise for a guy whom the Padres picked up off the scrap heap, but it hasn't come from nowhere.
Though Ross has a stiff delivery that has and will continue to lead to walks, it's very difficult for hitters to do damage against him. He has a low- to mid-90s sinker that rarely fails to induce ground balls, and he can also get whiffs when he needs them thanks to one of the nastiest sliders in existence.
Very quietly, Ross has been one of baseball's best pitchers for a year-and-a-half at this point. With the stuff he has working for him, you can expect that to continue in his age-28 season.
40. David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers
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Though he finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2010 and first in 2012, there's an argument to be made that David Price actually had his finest season in 2014.
He pitched a staggering 248.1 innings and also led the league in strikeouts with 271. Factor in how his 1.4 BB/9 was one of baseball's best walk rates, and you get an MLB-best 7.13 K/BB ratio. Hence why the advanced metrics liked him a lot better than his 3.26 ERA.
But then, it's not a fluke that Price's ERA was "only" 3.26. He gave up a league-high 230 hits and a career-high 25 home runs. That can happen when the velocity of your secondaries isn't declining alongside the velocity of your fastball, making it harder to change speeds. With that going on, it makes sense that the strike zone is just as much Price's enemy as it is his friend.
Still, concerns over the direction Price is headed going into his age-29 season only go so far. He may be hittable, but guys who can throw strikes, miss bats and eat innings like he can are in short supply.
39. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
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After the Atlanta Braves jettisoned Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis from an offense that finished 29th in runs scored in 2014, Freddie Freeman is really the only offensive weapon the Braves have left. So it's a good thing for them that he's an above-average offensive weapon.
Freeman has done no worse than a .795 OPS since 2011, and he owns an .871 OPS over the last two seasons. Somewhere in his future is a batting title, as he combines an excellent eye for the strike zone (especially for a big guy) with a quick stroke that is producing more and more line drives each year.
The 25-year-old Freeman is also getting better at hitting to left field, making him a rare shift-proof lefty batter. And though he's only topped out at 23 home runs, his raw power is more like that of a 25- to 30-home run hitter.
Then you can throw in how Freeman is a good, if not quite great, defender at first base. The total package makes him one of the game's top two-way first basemen.
38. Michael Brantley, LF, Cleveland Indians
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Michael Brantley was hardly a bad player before 2014, but he was definitely an afterthought. But then he hit .327 with an .890 OPS, 20 homers and 23 stolen bases, thus earning everyone's attention.
Too good to be true? Probably, yeah. Most notably, Brantley's extreme improvement to left field doesn't pass the smell test once compared with his spray chart in that direction. A potentially major regression is in order there for his age-28 season.
And yet, there is a limit to how much Brantley's big breakout can be downplayed. He's always been a good athlete, and good hitting is what you're going to get when you combine an excellent bat-to-ball skill with more or less an ideal batted-ball profile.
So though Brantley is due for a step back in 2015, it doesn't figure to be a big one. He should keep hitting for average with decent power and speed. Combine these things with passable left field defense, and you get a darn good all-around player.
37. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
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Anthony Rendon went from being a promising player in 2013 to being the rarest kind of superstar in 2014: one who's an asset in every phase of the game.
Beyond hitting .287 with an .824 OPS, Rendon also slugged 21 home runs, stole 17 bases and played outstanding defense at second base and third base. Both Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs put him in the 6-7 WAR range, which is where only the big stars tread.
And somehow, it's not too good to be true. Rendon combined a keen eye with plenty of contact, and his power comes from his lighting-quick wrists. He's also more athletic than your typical third baseman.
This all leaves but one red flag for Rendon's age-25 season: his left knee. What was supposed to be a minor injury has become more serious, and you get the sense that it could linger and take his all-around game down a notch.
It's a good thing the height Rendon stands to fall from is a very high one. Even if he does regress, he should still be an all-around force.
36. Starling Marte, LF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Midway through 2014, Starling Marte was looking like a one-year wonder. After a breakout 2013, he entered the All-Star break hitting just .256 with a .708 OPS and five home runs.
Then Marte caught fire, hitting .348 with a .975 OPS and eight home runs in the second half. Ask FanGraphs, and it'll tell you that only Buster Posey was a hotter hitter.
Obviously, Marte keeping up that level of production is unlikely. But he is indeed a better hitter than his subpar walk and strikeout rates make him look. His batted-ball profile is light on fly balls, which is ideal for a hitter with his speed, and he does a good job of using the whole field.
Of course, Marte isn't just about hitting and baserunning. He's also arguably the National League's best defensive left fielder, largely because he brings a center fielder's range to the position. Add that to his above-average offense, and you have the goods for a 5-ish WAR player heading into his age-26 season.
35. Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs
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It says a lot that the 2.53 ERA Jake Arrieta authored in 2014 might undersell how good he was. Next to that was a 2.26 FIP that sandwiched him in between Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber.
That alone tells us that Arrieta's breakout is no fluke, but there's more. Eno Sarris of FanGraphs can highlight how improved mechanics allowed Arrieta to control his stuff. Among that stuff was a slider with multiple looks—one of which is truly filthy—so it's no wonder it earned him both whiffs and ground balls.
Arrieta also throws a low- to mid-90s sinker and an easily above-average curveball. That makes his 2014 breakout not a product of luck, but of much-improved command meeting a truly nasty arsenal.
At 29 years old, Arrieta should have at least one more season just like it. Provided he bumps his innings count from 156.2 to somewhere around 200, he should further cement himself as a reborn ace.
34. Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals
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By reputation, Yadier Molina is one of the elite players in baseball. Heck, it wasn't all that long ago that he was considered as maybe the elite player in baseball.
Not so much anymore, though. Molina hit a wall in his age-31 season in 2014, hitting .282 and OPS'ing .719 in just 110 games due to injuries. When one considers that he's heading into his age-32 season with over 1,200 starts at catcher under his belt, it's possible that his prime is well and truly over.
But this being one bad year we're talking about, Molina is far from an afterthought. He might be the best defensive catcher in baseball history. And apart from his pitch framing, which we know is typically elite, that reputation held strong in 2014 even despite a nagging right knee injury. And after he lost 20 pounds, maybe that right knee won't bother him at all in 2015.
As for Molina's bat, his declining power and ability to hit inside heat are concerning. But knowing that he hit .313 with an .842 OPS between 2011 and 2013, the benefit of the doubt is warranted. And even if his hitting only slightly improves, that'll be enough to re-establish his place among MLB's top catchers.
33. Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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For now, the big Cole Hamels storyline is that, yes, he still plays for the Phillies. But before long, the big storyline should be that, yeah, he's still really good at pitching baseballs.
Hamels owns an even 3.00 ERA since 2010, racking up over 200 innings each year along the way. His finest work in this span came just last season, when he authored a career-best 2.46 ERA in 204.2 innings.
Hamels still has his trademark changeup and good control, but one thing he's done more recently is become much less predictable with his pitch selection. He's now so much more than a fastball-changeup pitcher, so it borders on being unfair that he also found some extra velocity in 2014.
In short: Yes, Hamels is an ace teams should want to trade for. He's likely running out of good years, but his age-31 season in 2015 ought to be another good one.
32. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Right off the bat, let's grant that Zack Greinke's right elbow is at least worthy of some side-eye action. It bothered him on occasion in 2013 and 2014 and has already found its way into the spotlight in 2015.
If his elbow holds, however, Greinke should offer his usual brand of excellent pitching in his age-31 season. He's authored a 2.68 ERA in 60 starts over the last two seasons, and the making of that ERA has been a veritable clinic in crafty pitching.
Greinke doesn't throw as hard as he used to, so he has to get by more on smoke and mirrors. He's mastered that approach by diversifying his arsenal into a five-pitch mix, and he's mastered the art of toying with the strike zone without living in it. He's actually getting more whiffs these days than he did in his Cy Young season in 2009, not to mention more ground balls.
Clayton Kershaw tends to hog all the attention in the Dodgers rotation. But just behind him is Greinke, who's a sure thing for a sub-3.00 ERA over 200-plus innings as long as his health holds.
31. Adam Jones, CF, Baltimore Orioles
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Adam Jones really should try walking more and striking out less. And despite his Gold Glove reputation, his defense in center field is typically anything but golden.
When it comes to Jones, these are the things to complain about. And indeed, they're not small things.
But who are we kidding? He's still a really good player. We can tell by the way Jones has hit better than .280 in five straight seasons while providing around 30 home runs and better baserunning than his modest stolen base totals would lead you to believe.
Per both Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, these skills have made Jones a 4-5 WAR player in recent seasons. He should be right there again in his age-29 season in 2015.
30. Russell Martin, C, Toronto Blue Jays
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Russell Martin signed a five-year, $82 million deal to come to the Blue Jays over the winter. Their hope is obviously that he can repeat what he did in 2014, when he hit .290 with a .402 OBP and an .832 OPS, and that may not be nuts.
Martin's 2014 production can be traced back to a change in his approach. He already had good plate discipline, but he made himself more like Joey Votto by spoiling good pitches by fouling them off. He also made like Derek Jeter and targeted the opposite field, resulting in career-best production to right field. And though these things didn't help his power, his move to Rogers Centre could do the job for him in 2015.
Meanwhile, Martin continued to play stellar defense behind the dish. He had little trouble cutting down opposing runners, and he once again found himself among the game's elite pitch framers. Though Yadier Molina is correctly billed as the game's top defensive catcher, we underrate how close Martin is to him.
This all leaves but one catch. Martin's been banged up a lot in recent years, and the trend probably isn't quitting in his age-32 season. A full season's worth of work is unlikely.
29. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox
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So, Jose Abreu's rookie season went pretty well. All the 28-year-old Cuban slugger did was hit .317 with a .964 OPS and 36 home runs, capturing the American League Rookie of the Year award.
Going forward, the pressure is on Abreu to repeat that production in 2015, or at least come somewhere close to it. Because he's a value drain on the basepaths and on defense, he fits the Miguel Cabrera mold in that elite offensive production is his only avenue to top status.
Fortunately, this shouldn't be asking too much.
Abreu showed off outstanding plate coverage and an impressive all-fields approach in 2014. And though his power dropped off dramatically in the second half, he achieved much greater consistency by drawing more walks and going with more of a contact-based approach. That's how you go from hitting .292 in one half to .350 in another.
In all, Abreu definitely has the power for the major leagues, and he proved as the season went along that he has the approach, too. His place among the game's elite hitters is very much deserved.
28. Alex Gordon, LF, Kansas City Royals
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Alex Gordon finally stopped being underrated in 2014. Though he had already established himself as an excellent all-around player between 2011 and 2013, the Royals' rise to prominence last year put his talents in a national spotlight and even placed him in the MVP discussion.
Rightfully so. Gordon hit a solid .266 with a .783 OPS, 19 home runs and 12 stolen bases, quality production for a guy who plays half his games at Kauffman Stadium. Meanwhile, he also carried on as the game's best defensive left fielder.
There are concerns going forward, however. Gordon is heading into his age-31 season and has a compromised right wrist. He had surgery on it in December, and the price for that might be a decrease in power. If that happens, he figures to be something close to a league-average hitter.
Still, that would only drop Gordon down the totem pole so much. League-average hitting isn't much to look at on its own, but it works fine when attached to quality baserunning and superb defense.
27. Jason Heyward, RF, St. Louis Cardinals
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Jason Heyward is not perfect. At least not to the extent that he's actually lived up to Bobby Cox's Hank Aaron remark from 2010, anyway. But just because he's not perfect doesn't mean he's not really good.
Even in what was a "down" year, with a .271 average and .735 OPS, Heyward still qualified as an above-average hitter. Throw in how his 20 stolen bases were just a part of his typically excellent baserunning and how he played beyond excellent defense in right field, and you get the makings of a truly outstanding all-around player.
How much better Heyward can get really comes down to his hitting. He has a good eye and a strong ability to make contact, but his rigid swing path makes him beatable with pitches above the belt. If that continues, he probably won't get back to his offensive high (.814 OPS, 27 homers) of 2012.
But, oh well. There's enough in his tool bag for a floor of league-average hitting. As long as that's paired with excellent baserunning and defensive production, Heyward will remain one of MLB's best players in what will only be his age-25 season in 2015.
26. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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It's OK to be concerned about Adam Wainwright. You should be.
Wainwright underwent an operation on his elbow shortly after the end of the 2014 season, and more recently, an abdominal strain sidelined him. These things don't look good on a 33-year-old workhorse, and then there's also how his velocity and strikeouts were down in 2014.
But at the same time...well, shoot. It's Adam Wainwright.
He's coming off a 2.38 ERA in close to 230 innings in 2014, which followed a 2.94 ERA in 241.2 innings in 2013. And though his velocity is on thin ice, he doesn't need velocity as long as he has command of his excellent cutter, four-seamer and sinker. And of course, he'll always have his cartoon-ish curveball.
Wainwright's status as an elite pitcher will obviously come crashing down if his health doesn't hold. But if it does, he should have little trouble racking up innings and goose eggs like his usual self.
25. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
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After a disappointing 2013, Anthony Rizzo became the player the Cubs expected he could be in 2014. He hit .286 with a .913 OPS and slugged 32 home runs.
Because Rizzo raised his OPS by 172 points from 2013 to 2014, it's only natural to be skeptical. But it wasn't all luck, as he dramatically improved against left-handed pitching and achieved a power-friendly batted-ball profile consisting mainly of line drives and fly balls. And though he does prefer to pull the ball, he can poke enough line drives to left field to balance things out.
And Rizzo's not a one-trick pony. The defensive metrics rated him as an elite defensive first baseman in 2013, and he didn't slip in 2014. He's also a decent baserunner by first basemen standards.
Rizzo was good enough in 2014 to climb into the 5-6 WAR range in both Baseball-Reference.com's and FanGraphs' eyes, putting him among baseball's best all-around players. Given how it happened, he should be able to retain his membership in his age-25 season this year.
24. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
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For only the second time since 2006, Adrian Beltre failed to top 20 home runs in 2014. With his age-36 season due up and his power in a steady decline in general, that might not be a mere blip on the radar.
But despite his subpar power, Beltre still hit .324 with an .879 OPS in 2014. One is tempted to view that as an unrepeatable performance in light of his age, but Beltre has been hitting around .320 with a .900-ish OPS for the better part of five years now. That's what you can do when you take your share of walks, don't strike out and make plenty of hard contact to all fields.
Meanwhile, Beltre's defense at third base is still quite good. He's not as quick on his feet as he used to be, but his instincts, arm strength and throwing accuracy still allow him to make more plays than the average third baseman.
So, 2015 should be just another fine entry in what's been a Cooperstown-worthy career.
23. Kyle Seager, 3B, Seattle Mariners
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If you want to look at a player who's getting better every year, look no further than Kyle Seager.
Seager has improved his OPS every season since 2012 and has also upped his home run count each campaign. Last year's .788 OPS and 25 home runs are his current high-water marks, so 30 homers and an .800-ish OPS are in his sights for his age-27 season.
Actually getting there should be doable. Seager is better than most at combining patience with contact, and his line-drive- and fly-ball-heavy batted-ball profile is perfect for a power hitter. And though he's mainly a pull hitter, he's not totally incapable of finding left field.
As for the Gold Glove Seager won last year, that was well earned. Defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating both put him at 10 runs above average on defense. And subjective though they are, he did make 15 fewer errors than fellow third base standout Josh Donaldson.
As of now, Seager is one of baseball's best two-way third basemen. If he continues his trend of steady improvement, don't be shocked when he emerges as a "surprise" MVP candidate in 2015.
22. Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
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Jordan Zimmermann finally stopped being underrated in 2013, winning 19 games and finishing in the top seven of the voting for the National League Cy Young Award.
But his finest work came last year, in which he posted a 2.66 ERA in 199.2 innings. It was to nobody's surprise that he led the league with a 1.3 BB/9 rate, as command had always been his primary strength. But the real surprise was in how he altered his approach to allow him to become truly dominant.
Zimmermann began aiming his mid- to high-90s fastball up in the zone more often. This helped him get more pop-ups, and simply changing eye levels more consistently had a hand in helping all four of his pitches draw more whiffs. After normally hanging around 7.0, his K/9 rate jumped to 8.2.
So if you just started tuning in to Zimmermann's work in 2014, you picked a good time. He had always been good. Now he's great and should be near the top of everyone's watch list heading into his age-29 season.
21. Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs
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Jon Lester picked a hell of a time to have a career year, with a 2.46 ERA in 219.2 innings in 2014. Not long after he put the finishing touches on that, he inked a $155 million contract with the Cubs.
But then, it's slightly inaccurate to say Lester earned that contract because of one good season. He's been dominating for a good year-and-a-half, as he finished 2013 with a 2.39 ERA in his final 19 starts between the regular season and the postseason.
Grantland's Shane Ryan highlighted how the 31-year-old has reinvented himself, compensating for lesser velocity with a game plan that emphasizes command of the corners and clever sequencing of his (quite excellent) cutter and fastball. This approach has proved to be good for not only his strikeout and walk rates, but for his ability to manage contact.
Where Lester was once a power pitcher, he's now more like a modified Cliff Lee clone or a left-handed Adam Wainwright. Or, in other words, truly a really good pitcher.
20. Yasiel Puig, RF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Everyone loves to pile on Yasiel Puig. For occasionally coming unhinged at the plate. For being reckless on the basepaths. For not hitting cutoff men. For generally acting like a rudderless force of nature.
You'd think that the guy wasn't a hell of a ballplayer. Thing is, though, he really is.
Even in taking a step back from his explosive 2013, Puig still hit .296 with an .863 OPS, 16 homers and 11 steals in 2014. He really toned down his wildness at the plate, resulting in a better balance between walks and strikeouts. He's advancing as a hitter, which bodes well heading into what's only his age-24 season.
The one thing Puig should be much better at is hitting for power. He's extremely powerful, but his in-game power will be limited as long as half his batted balls continue to find their way onto the ground.
But that's OK. Puig's offensive skill set is strong enough even without elite power. And now that he's back in right field for good, his defense stands to be more of a difference-maker in 2015. That'll further cement his place among the game's best players and hopefully get his critics to zip it.
19. Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Had he been able to pitch more than 174 innings in 2014, Chris Sale probably would have won the American League Cy Young.
Though he lacked a workhorse-y workload, the 26-year-old lefty pitched to a 2.17 ERA, led the league with a 10.8 K/9 and racked up a studly 5.33 K/BB ratio. After already achieving ace status with a 3.06 ERA and 4.31 K/BB ratio across 2012 and 2013, he achieved super-ace status in 2014.
And it suits him well. Sale has better command than you'd expect for a guy with such a herky-jerky delivery, and his four-pitch mix makes for some GIF-able awesomeness. Both his four-seamer and sinker have extreme movement to go with low- to mid-90s velocity, his slider is arguably the best left-handed slider there is and his changeup is only getting better.
So yeah, it's a darn shame about that foot injury. That's going to continue a pattern of Sale's workload being limited, keeping him in the tier just below the Clayton Kershaws and Felix Hernandezes of MLB.
18. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
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When Troy Tulowitzki is healthy, Troy Tulowitzki is an absolute wrecking ball.
Never more was that evident than in this past season. Tulo hit .340 with a 1.035 OPS and 21 home runs in only 91 games, and the metrics saw characteristically strong defense at shortstop.
Put his 2014 season under the microscope, and you'll see a player who was more patient, better at making contact and better at making loud contact than the average hitter. And though Tulo doesn't move as well as other shortstops, his quick release and plus arm strength and accuracy make up for that.
But despite his amazing 2014 season, it's hard to get too excited about Tulowitzki heading into 2015.
On the one hand, there's the knowledge that his 2014 season was just the latest in a recent run of excellent campaigns. But on the other, there's the knowledge that his health has limited him to just 264 games over the last three years and that he's unlikely to get healthier in his age-30 season.
On talent alone, Tulowitzki is a top-10 or maybe even top-five player. As such, consider this relatively subdued rank as a reminder that health concerns suck.
17. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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After two extraordinary seasons in 2012 and 2013, Miguel Cabrera plummeted to earth in 2014. He just wasn't the same player, and it was hard to watch.
...And yet, he still hit .313 with an .895 OPS, 25 home runs and a league-leading 52 doubles. If nothing else, that gives you an idea just how good Cabrera was in the two previous seasons, in which he hit .338 with a 1.037 OPS and 88 home runs. And even in declining from that performance, Cabrera still showed off the plate coverage and all-fields pop that will one day put him in the Hall of Fame.
As for whether Cabrera can recapture his 2012-2013 dominance in 2015...eh, probably not. The core muscle surgery he had before 2014 really sapped his power, and the ankle surgery he had after the season isn't going to make it any easier to revive it in what will be his age-32 season.
But even if Cabrera's best production is in the past, he's still far from being a bum. The Tigers will gladly take more of what he had to offer in 2014, especially if it keeps coming with solid defense at first base.
16. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
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Robinson Cano didn't quite surpass expectations in his first season with the Mariners after signing a $240 million contract, but he at least managed to meet them.
After hitting .314 with a .383 OBP in his final season with the Yankees in 2013, Cano hit .314 with a .382 OBP in 2014. He maintained his mouthwatering blend of patience and contact and had no trouble repeating the career-best success to the opposite field that he had achieved in 2013. And in general, Cano's bat control does seem to only be getting better with age.
If there's something to be worried about heading into Cano's age-32 season, it's his power. He slugged only 14 homers in 2014, and his power looks caught in a steep decline. But considering that he really turned things around after a slow start in the power department in 2014, there is room for some optimism.
One way or another, Cano's place among baseball's elite hitters is solid. Once you factor in how he's still capable of playing good, if not quite great defense at second base, it's hard to doubt his ability to carry on as one of the game's great players in 2015.
15. Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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The one concern you have with Johnny Cueto is his health. His right shoulder has been known to get achy and has kept him short of 30 starts in two of the last four seasons.
But Cueto has been outstanding when healthy, posting a 2.48 ERA in those four seasons. And most recently, he achieved an entirely new level of dominance in 2014, finishing with a 2.25 ERA in 243.2 innings. On a start-to-start basis, his dominance was a step below that of Clayton Kershaw.
How Cueto did that is a study in the field known as AWESOME PITCHING 101. Good health allowed him to not only regain some velocity, but to increase his velocity inning by inning in games. He also combined a legit five-pitch mix with an uncanny ability to avoid the middle of the strike zone.
The short version is that Cueto didn't give hitters anything in 2014. And though that's obviously a tough act to follow, it's not hard to have faith in a guy with a recent track record of dominance and who's only headed for his age-29 season.
14. Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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Nobody could touch Madison Bumgarner last October. The 25-year-old left-hander made seven appearances, racking up a 1.03 ERA and a 45-to-6 K/BB ratio in 52.2 innings. Provided you're into baseball history being made, that's pretty good stuff.
But let's not lose sight of the fact that Bumgarner was a darn good pitcher before he was a postseason legend. He owns a 2.88 ERA in 418.2 innings in the last two regular seasons, and his dominant showing last October came from a midseason turning point that could very well keep paying off.
As 2014 was winding down, Bumgarner found some extra velocity and shifted his attack within the zone to more action above the belt. Coupled with his awesome slider, he had everything he needed to find easy outs in additional strikeouts and pop-ups and posted a 2.29 ERA in 13 starts after the break.
Bumgarner's October wasn't the work of a lucky pitcher. It was the work of a pitcher who had everything figured out. Assuming the effort didn't drain his tank of gas, he should keep right on dominating.
13. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
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Before a wayward fastball broke his left hand in August, Paul Goldschmidt was in the midst of yet another Paul Goldschmidt-y season in 2014.
After hitting .302 with a .952 OPS and 36 home runs in 2013, Goldschmidt was hitting .300 with a .938 OPS and 19 home runs through his first 109 games. Also, his nine steals put him on the verge of a second straight double-digit steal season, and his defense at first base was once again above average.
That's a portrait of an elite all-around first baseman, and it holds up under a microscope. Though there is a swing-and-miss element to his game, Goldschmidt has a keen eye and a stroke that produces loud contact to all fields. And even at 6'3" and 245 pounds, he's more athletic than most first basemen.
If there's a red flag, it's that last year's broken hand might sap Goldschmidt's power in what will be his age-27 season. But even if it does, he has enough all-around talent to find his way into the 5-6 WAR range.
And yes, more at-bats against Tim Lincecum won't hurt.
12. Jose Bautista, RF, Toronto Blue Jays
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Though he slugged 55 home runs with an .868 OPS, Jose Bautista appeared to be inching toward the twilight of his career in 2012 and 2013. Production like that was a far cry from his 2010-2011 awesomeness, and injuries limited him to just 210 games.
It turns out reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Bautista played in 155 games in 2014, hitting 35 bombs with a .286 average and a .928 OPS. Add in some quality defense in right field, and he returned to the realm of the game's top all-around position players.
And let it be said that Bautista's 2014 season proved an old dog can learn new tricks. The 34-year-old already had extreme power, a discerning eye and an underrated ability to make contact, but what he started doing in 2014 was using the opposite field. He rocketed plenty of line drives to right field, which resulted in career-best opposite-field production.
Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs highlighted how this made Bautista more of a shift-proof hitter. That was the whole idea, and his execution of the plan is just another reason to dig his game.
11. Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals
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Max Scherzer's $210 million contract with the Nationals is the most expensive free-agent contract for a right-handed pitcher in history. And while it will inevitably turn into a disaster as Scherzer gets further beyond the age-30 plateau, for now everything's A-OK.
Scherzer is fresh off a two-year stretch highlighted by a 3.02 ERA, a 10.2 K/9 rate and a 2.5 BB/9 rate. It's that last number that really gets at how far he's come. He always was going to be a great pitcher once he finally found some command to go with his killer stuff, and that's what's happened.
As for that stuff, it's true that Scherzer's average fastball velocity is fading. But it's still above average for now, and he's not relying on his heat as much anyway. He's turned into a legit four-pitch hurler, which borders on being unfair in light of how everything he throws (including his fastball) has crazy movement. Hence the reason why his swinging-strike mastery is unmatched among his fellow right-handers.
And yeah, now he's in the National League and on the only team in the NL East with a dangerous offense to boot. Fear him. Fear him NOW.
10. Carlos Gomez, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
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After a quiet breakout in 2012, Carlos Gomez authored a much louder campaign in 2013, hitting .284 with an .843 OPS, 24 homers and 40 stolen bases all while wowing with his defense in center field.
After a performance like that, Gomez could have plummeted back to earth in 2014. But he didn't, as he once again hit .284, this time with an .833 OPS, 23 dingers and 34 steals. And though the defensive metrics didn't love him as much as they did in 2014, he was still on their good side.
Gomez will slow down at some point, but probably not in 2015. He's only headed for his age-29 season, so he should keep shining on the basepaths and in center field. And as much as it feels like there should be weaknesses in his approach to hitting, he makes up for all his wild swings and misses with lots of loud contact and an underrated ability to use the whole field.
Basically, Gomez is a bit of patience and a bit of power away from being Mike Trout. High praise indeed.
9. Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians
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After what he did in 2013, Corey Kluber looked like a nice sleeper heading into 2014. You know, somebody who might emerge as a solid No. 3-type starter.
Apparently, he had bigger plans. The 28-year-old won the American League Cy Young on the strength of a 2.44 ERA across 235.2 innings, as well as an insane second half that featured a 1.73 ERA and a studly 6.68 K/BB ratio.
Naturally, you fear the "one-year wonder" phenomenon. But Kluber should prove immune. It's easy to see the mid-90s velocity, but he also has a cutter, changeup and slider that nobody could hit in 2014. His slider, in particular, is downright disgusting.
That Kluber's arsenal contains these pitches is unfair enough in its own right. That he also has control over them is just ridiculous. As long as he has these things working for him, he'll mow down hitters at will.
I, for one, welcome our new Klubot overlord.
8. Josh Donaldson, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
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Josh Donaldson was a surprise MVP candidate in 2013, hitting .301 with an .883 OPS and 24 home runs. But because that happened in his age-27 season, you couldn't help but wonder if it was a fluke.
Turns out it wasn't. Though Donaldson's production did slip in 2014, he still hit .255 with a .798 OPS and 29 home runs. He also made enough good plays at third base to make up for his errors, once again qualifying as an elite defender. By WAR, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs put him in the 6.5-7.5 range.
Between the two seasons, Donaldson's 2014 campaign is probably a more accurate depiction of what's to come. The troubles he had with high pitches are likely to continue, and his preference for ground balls and fly balls gives him an all-or-nothing batted-ball profile.
This is not to say anyone should be worried. Donaldson was an MVP-caliber player even despite his weaknesses in 2014, and there's a very good chance that Rogers Centre will hide those weaknesses better than O.co Coliseum could. It's a haven for right-handed power, and Donaldson sure isn't short on that.
7. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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In 2014, Jonathan Lucroy went from being an underrated gem to being a legit MVP candidate.
This had a lot to do with how he improved his offensive game. He had teased the ability to do so in 2012 and 2013, but 2014 was when Lucroy achieved an ideal balance between hitting for average and hitting for power. He hit .301, and he tacked on 13 home runs and a league-leading 53 doubles.
Lucroy carrying on as an elite offensive catcher is hardly far-fetched. He's getting better every year at mixing patience and contact, and good power production is what will happen when you start hitting the ball squarely to every part of the yard.
Of course, Lucroy isn't just an offensive threat. He may only be about average at controlling the running game, but nothing gets past him and there are few better catchers in this league when it comes to framing strikes. If you were puzzled at how the Brewers had respectable pitching in 2014 despite a lack of star power, their staff owes Lucroy a lot of the credit for that respectability.
Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs had Lucroy as a 6-7 WAR player in 2014. But that might actually undersell how good he was in 2014 and how good he could be in his age-29 season if he keeps it up.
6. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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Felix Hernandez didn't win his second American League Cy Young in 2014, but there's a very strong argument to be made that he should have.
Beyond leading the American League with a 2.14 ERA in 236 innings, King Felix also led the AL in WHIP (0.915) and hits per nine innings (6.5). He struck out more than a batter per nine innings, walked fewer than two batters per nine innings and got grounders on over half his batted balls.
In addition to finally reversing a velocity decline in 2014, Hernandez re-established himself as a legit five-pitch pitcher with a particularly devastating changeup. Factor in how he rarely gave hitters something good to hit, and it's a wonder how he gave up anything in 2014.
Hernandez is going to hit a wall at some point. But he's only headed for his age-29 season, and just about everything says that year is going to be another special entry in what's been a special career.
5. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
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Giancarlo Stanton became the most expensive athlete ever after he inked a 13-year, $325 million contract extension with the Marlins. So yeah, it's noteworthy that he isn't even the best player in his sport.
He is most certainly one of the best, though.
Stanton definitely proved he could hit for power between 2010 and 2013, slugging .535 and mashing 117 home runs in only 489 games. But 2014 saw him put it all together, as he hit .288 with a .950 OPS, a league-leading 37 homers, 13 stolen bases and quality defense in right field.
This performance is more repeatable than you might think. It doesn't need to be argued that Stanton is a man capable of making regular hard contact, and he's only getting better at balancing patience and contact. His speed and defense were the real surprises of his 2014 season, but his performance in those categories goes to show what he can do when he has healthy legs.
The only real concern is that he could be gun-shy against high-and-tight pitches after taking a Mike Fiers fastball to the face in September. But if that proves to be water under the bridge in what will only be Stanton's age-25 season, watch out.
Like, literally watch out. You never know where his dingers will land.
4. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
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Buster Posey may never repeat his amazing 2012 season, in which he hit .336 with a .957 OPS and 24 home runs on his way to winning the National League MVP award.
But that's OK. As his 2014 season can show, he doesn't need to be that good to have a place in the inner circle of baseball's superstars.
Posey finished 2014 hitting .311 with an .854 OPS and 22 home runs. Really the only flaw in that performance is how he continued to struggle drawing walks like he did in his MVP season, but his actual hitting approach is flawless enough to make up for that. He has outstanding bat-to-ball talent, and his sweet swing comes with the bat control and pop necessary to put the ball anywhere he likes.
But as easy as it is to appreciate Posey's hitting, things have gotten to a point where his defense is sorely underappreciated. He's better than most at controlling the running game, and he was arguably the best strike framer in baseball in 2014. He also played a solid first base, further increasing his overall value.
There are some really good catchers in the game today. Heading into his age-28 season, Posey's the best there is.
3. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Death, taxes and Andrew McCutchen contending for the National League MVP.
Such is life in recent years. McCutchen has hit no worse than .314, OPS'd no worse than .911, hit no fewer than 21 home runs and stolen no fewer than 18 bases in any of the last three seasons, all while holding it down at a premium defensive position in center field.
You don't need WAR to appreciate production like that, but here it is anywhere: Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs say McCutchen's value has hovered between 6.4 and 8.0 WAR.
And a decline is unlikely. The Pirates' careful handling of McCutchen's "lower body soreness" this spring looks like a case of them being safe rather than sorry. He's also still only 28 and is established as a hitter who balances patience and contact while regularly punishing the ball to all fields. And though the defensive metrics didn't like him in 2014, they've also been known to change their mind about his defense.
So, if you can count on anything, you can count on this: McCutchen's 2015 season will probably see him contend for the NL MVP again.
2. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Obviously, you're not surprised to see Clayton Kershaw here.
The dude has won four straight ERA titles and three National League Cy Youngs in four years. He's also coming off an otherworldly 2014 season, as he posted a 1.77 ERA and a 7.71 K/BB ratio on his way to winning the MVP as well as the Cy Young.
But let's stop and appreciate what made that season possible and what could in turn make him at least as dominant in the coming season.
Kershaw's command is getting better every year, but what really stood out in the 2014 season was how he went from being a good strikeout pitcher to being an elite strikeout pitcher. The key was how he made his slider just as nasty as his infamous curveball, as he threw it harder without really sacrificing any movement. It's now easily his best swing-and-miss pitch and a true feast for the eyes.
Kershaw has enough going for him to make a run at yet another historic season in what will be his age-27 season. If he somehow masters the changeup he's always wanted, may the baseball gods save the National League.
1. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
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Mike Trout hit a wall in 2014. A great big pile of strikeouts helped push his average below .300, he failed to reach even 20 stolen bases and the defensive metrics frowned on his play in center field.
And he still won the American League MVP.
Though Trout was a lesser player than he had been in 2012 and 2013, when he hit .324 with 57 homers and 82 steals, he still hit .287 with a .939 OPS, 36 home runs and 16 stolen bases. That's a damn good season no matter which way you slice it, and Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs agreed it was worth more WAR than any other position player could muster.
Unfortunately for the competition, though, Trout isn't satisfied. Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports that he wants to cut down on his strikeouts and increase his stolen bases in his age-23 season in 2015, thereby addressing the two main areas of concern everyone had about his 2014 season. And to the first goal, he knows he needs to stop chasing the high pitches that killed him in 2014.
If Trout follows through on his goals, he'll look more like his 2012-2013 self. That is to say, he'll look more like the best young player in baseball history.
