Will the Safety-Starved NFL Overdraft Landon Collins?

This isn't a good year to be an NFL team in need of a safety.

The market was already thin at the position entering free agency, with the Patriots making the smart play to re-sign Devin McCourty before he hit the open market. Once the unquestioned jewel of the class was gone, teams moved fast to throw money at other veteran options such as Antrel Rolle (Bears), Rahim Moore (Texans), Da'Norris Searcy (Titans), Marcus Gilchrist (Jets) and Ron Parker (Chiefs). 

This year's draft class is filled with questions at safety and lacks the kind of depth that sells in the first couple of rounds. Alabama's Landon Collins could be the only hope for finding a true upgrade at the position in the first round. 

Will that force NFL clubs to overvalue Collins' skill set? Will scarcity at the position drive him higher than he belongs on draft boards?

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Collins should go in the mid to late first round. He has size (6'0", 228 lbs), speed (4.5 range), instincts and versatility. He's a safety who can drop down against the run, get off the numbers in Cover 2 (deep-half player) and play a wide range of roles as an underneath sub-package defender (nickel/dime).

He's also not just a "downhill player"—an overused term tagging safety prospects who are often hidden on passing downs because they can't play over the top or check a tight end/receiver in coverage. Collins has the flexibility in his hips, the transition speed and the awareness to go find the ball. 

"Collins always made a play when they needed him," an NFL scout told me. "He's shown enough range in college and has some 'thump' to him. Good ball skills, can play half field and he's a good blitzer."

He also should be an absolute star on special teams. You want production in the kicking game? Collins will give you that as a gunner on punt coverage or running down the field on the kickoff unit. 

A good fit would be a system like Gregg Williams' in St. Louis, Vic Fangio's in Chicago or Rex Ryan's in Buffalo. These are "multiple" systems that feature a variety of personnel packages that cater to safeties with the athletic ability to line up anywhere on the field. 

Here's an example from the All-22 film in Williams' Ruby package (3DL-2LB-6DBs) that allows the Rams to put three safeties on the field while bringing overload pressure to the closed side (tight end side) of the formation.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

As you can see, the strong safety and nickel show pressure to the open side (before dropping into coverage to match the receivers) with the dime back (safety Mark Barron) blitzing at the snap. This creates an opportunity for the Rams to roll the free safety, drop the open-side cornerback to the deep half and play a "trap" coverage with the closed-side corner reading inside at the snap. It's a complex blitz that requires the proper personnel in the sub-package to produce results.

Collins could play that role underneath as strong safety, nickel or dime in this look. Plus, the tape at Alabama has plenty of examples with Collins dropping down as a "rover," matching to the seam or playing the inside hook as a zone defender. He has plenty of value there to be a first-rounder.

But higher than that?

A safety needs to have elite range to get into top-10-pick territory because of the amount of man coverage (or single-high schemes) NFL teams want to play. And after watching Collins' tape and talking with scouts about him, there's a question as to how much he will play in the deep middle of the field. He's going to earn his money playing strong safety, not free safety.

Collins has shown the ability to flip the hips as a single-high safety against college competition and that was on display at his pro day. He can get off the hash. But working against NFL speed is a different ballgame. He'd generate the most production coming off the numbers in Cover 2 or playing underneath in the pros. That would maximize his skill set.

Video courtesy of DraftBreakdown.com.

Teams such as the Bears and Giants, who both pick in the top 10, know their need for a safety isn't going anywhere. The free agents are gone, and after Collins, it's a steep drop-off in the draft.

But teams drafting that high still have to be smart when grading Collins. He's a player I would want on my defense and who should bring a lot of versatility to a defense's sub-packages. But even with the glaring demand for talent at safety right now, I don't see the top-10 value here without the consistent impact from the middle of the field.

Seven-year NFL veteran Matt Bowen is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report.

Follow @MattBowen41