Spring Training Flops It's Not Too Early to Be Concerned About
We've been trained to ignore most of the on-field action during spring training, as success (or failure) during baseball's exhibition season doesn't necessarily foretell of the same once Opening Day rolls around.
Take the Colorado Rockies, for example. This spring, the Rockies sit 19th in batting average (.255) and 20th in runs scored (51) while posting the spring's sixth-best ERA (3.00) and ninth-lowest WHIP (1.28). We're smart enough to understand that those rankings will flip once the regular season begins.
Hopefully, we're also smart enough to know that statistics only tell part of the story and that you really need to look deeper to have a true understanding of what's going on, whether it be for an entire team or an individual.
For the five players on our list, that bit of extra digging reveals a forecast that calls for more rainy days than sunny ones this summer.
SP Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
1 of 5
Spring Training Stats: 2 GS, 3.18 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 BB, 4 K
Jered Weaver's spring training stats don't look so bad, much less floppish, so how can he possibly be included on this list? Because of a number that's not listed—the velocity on his fastball.
According to Brooks Baseball, Weaver's average heater is coming in at 82.88 mph through two spring starts. While it's a pitch that you and I might still struggle to make contact with, it's a gift to a major league hitter.
"How many velocity questions are we going to have?" Weaver asked a group of reporters that included Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times after a recent outing. "I don't pay attention to velocity. It's more about getting location down and being able to get on pitches when you need to."
Maybe Weaver's right. After all, his average fastball hasn't cracked the 90 mph plateau since 2011, and the veteran has managed to go 49-22 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and finish third in the voting for the American League Cy Young Award in 2012.
But his fastball is sitting nearly five mph lower than it did in 2014. That's a massive drop in velocity, and it's reason for concern. Per FanGraphs, R.A. Dickey was the only 2014 starter with an average fastball velocity under 83 mph, but, being a knuckleballer, he's far less reliant on his heater than Weaver is.
Is it possible that years of wear and tear, which Weaver has managed to stay ahead of, have finally caught up to him as he enters his age-32 season? Only a dozen pitchers have thrown more innings than he has since breaking into the majors back in 2006, and Weaver is one of 12 to crack 27,000 pitches.
Should this velocity drop usher in the downside of Weaver's career, the Angels could be in trouble.
Matt Shoemaker hasn't looked sharp this spring, while Garrett Richards is still working his way back from a knee injury. The Angels can't count on the back end of the rotation to pick up the slack, with the mediocre C.J. Wilson and unproven Andrew Heaney slotted there.
If the Angels are going to successfully defend their AL West crown, they'll need vintage Weaver on the mound every fifth day.
2B Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
2 of 5
Spring Training Stats: 8 G, .130 BA (3-for-23), .391 OPS, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 6 K
Nobody expected Javier Baez to arrive in spring training as a finished product, but after he spent part of the winter in Puerto Rico honing his craft—which drew positive reviews from Chicago's front office, per MLB.com's Carrie Muskat—it was fair to expect to see some progress from Baez at the plate.
But there's been little evidence this spring that he's any closer to becoming a consistent contributor in the majors than he was a year ago.
“It’s a long process,” Baez told ESPN Chicago's Jesse Rogers a day after striking out three times against the Texas Rangers. “[Yesterday] I was worrying too much about the mechanics so that’s why I was completely lost.”
Baez has been so maddeningly frustrating at the plate that he's got new Cubs manager Joe Maddon second-guessing himself.
"He's thinking too much. He's getting a lot of information from all of us and sometimes I think it's our fault," Maddon told Rogers. "I just want to leave him alone and let him play. I'm not concerned. ... I’m really not worried. ... I’ve been around guys like him before. He needs to play and relax."
That's all well and good, but Maddon should be worried, because there's no excuse for Baez to be lost at the plate at this point in his development. It's not like he was facing Yu Darvish when he fanned three times against the Rangers, after all—those came against Ross Ohlendorf, Ross Wolf and Jon Edwards.
As ESPN's David Schoenfield notes, Baez's lack of discernible improvement puts the Cubs in a tricky position:
"Are the Cubs better off sending Baez down so he can have some success and learn to better control the strike zone, or is there an urgency to see what he can do now in the majors before the Kris Bryant/[Addison] Russell/[Starlin] Castro infield pushes him out of a spot? There's also the chance he grows bored at a level he's already had success at.
"
For the club to open the year with Baez on the major league roster would be unfair to the 22-year-old, who clearly isn't ready. And yes, it's far too early to call him a bust.
But if he struggles to make the adjustments that he needs to in order to become a consistent contributor, it's not impossible that we'll see him become something of an afterthought, a player the Cubs can no longer count on to become a key part of the team's future.
RP Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
3 of 5
Spring Training Stats: 5 G, 7.71 ERA, 1.93 WHIP, 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 0-for-1 SV
If you're one of the few people who was optimistic about Joe Nathan's chances of bouncing back from a dreadful first season wearing a Detroit Tigers uniform, avert your eyes. For what you're about to read, courtesy of The Detroit News' Lynn Henning, isn't pretty.
Henning takes a look at the reality of Nathan's situation and points to the reliever's most recent outing, this past Saturday, as reason why that optimism is misplaced:
"Nathan pitched one inning in Saturday's game at Marchant Stadium, which saw the Phillies beat the Tigers, 5-4. The scorecard said Nathan was fine: groundout to third base, walk (runner caught stealing) and a strikeout.
But of his 11 pitches, not one topped 89 mph. Five of the 11 pitches were strikes.
"
For the bulk of his career, Nathan destroyed the opposition with a fastball-slider combination that left hitters looking foolish at the plate. Now, in his age-40 season, he is trying to reinvent himself as a reliever who's more reliant upon his secondary offerings than his heater.
How many quality relievers can you name that don't have a killer fastball? That list is incredibly short.
Forget about Nathan finding success as Detroit's closer—that job should (and ultimately will) go to Joakim Soria, who at least offers a glimmer of hope in the ninth inning. The question now is whether he can even be a reliable member of Detroit's bullpen—or if the team is better off eating the $11 million left on his deal ($10 million salary for 2015 plus a $1 million buyout of his 2016 team option) and parting ways.
Detroit's window of contention is closing—and continuing to throw Nathan out on the mound may only hasten the speed with which it shuts.
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2B Jose Peraza, Atlanta Braves
4 of 5
Spring Training Stats: 9 G, .063 BA (1-for-16), .125 OPS, 4 K
We can count Atlanta Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez among those who believed that top prospect Jose Peraza was ready to break camp with the Braves heading into spring training.
"Half [of the coaches] say he's ready to go and the other half say, 'Nah, give him a couple months, he hasn't gotten any higher than Double-A," he told MLB.com's Mark Bowman. "It's always a good discussion. It will play out. We'll see."
Roughly two weeks later, Gonzalez has seen enough.
“We always talked about it [Peraza breaking camp with the Braves], but he’s a long shot,” Gonzalez told Guy Curtright of the Gwinnett Daily Post. “He felt pressure coming into camp. He hasn't swung the bat anywhere close to where he is capable of swinging.”
A career .306 hitter across parts of four minor league seasons, Peraza has looked overmatched at times this spring and been outplayed by fellow prospect Jace Peterson, acquired from the San Diego Padres in the Justin Upton trade.
While the Braves still consider him a second baseman, the team's president of baseball operations, John Hart, says that Peraza's eventual arrival in the majors may be tied to his ability to play multiple positions.
"You've noticed we've had him take ground balls at shortstop. Center field—the guy can fly, let him take some out there," Hart told David O'Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "It’s not that we’re looking to change his position, it’s that we’re looking for versatility.”
While there's nothing wrong with that—and Hart reiterated that the team still considers him a second baseman—Peraza is starting to sound like a faster version of former Brave Emilio Bonifacio, who has made a career as a super-utility player.
There's certainly plenty of value in having a player like that on your roster, but it'd be an underwhelming result for a one as highly touted as Peraza has been.
IF Nick Franklin, Tampa Bay Rays
5 of 5
Spring Training Stats: 8 G, .304 BA (7-for-23), .652 OPS, 1 2B, 3 RBI, 8 K
Nick Franklin's spring numbers look solid enough that one shouldn't consider him a flop, but a closer look reveals that's simply not the case.
While not lacking for confidence (he told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times that he had no doubt that he'd be Tampa Bay's Opening Day shortstop), the issues that have plagued Franklin since he made his major league debut with Seattle in 2013—questionable defense and no plate discipline—remain.
It's not so much that he is a terrible defensive shortstop, but that his best chance for success with the glove may lie on the other side of second base. He's delivered a mixed bag at short this spring, sprinkling in some quality plays with some questionable ones while committing two errors on 14 total chances.
More troubling are his free-swinging ways at the plate. Owner of a career 28.9 percent strikeout rate over parts of two major league seasons, Franklin has yet to draw a single walk this spring while striking out nearly 35 percent of the time. That's simply a recipe for disaster against major league pitching.
As one of the three players the Rays received in exchange for David Price, expectations for Franklin have never been higher. Yet he's shown no ability to make the adjustments necessary to find sustained success in the majors.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs. All spring training stats courtesy of MLB.com. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Find me on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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