Fantasy Baseball 2015: Updating Top 25 Sleepers to Grab in Drafts
With Opening Day now less than a month away and spring training games officially getting started, fantasy baseball fans are likely gearing up for their respective drafts.
While landing someone like Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw with your first-round pick is great, it's how you fill out your roster with potential sleepers and high-upside players that usually winds up being the difference between winning and losing.
So, with that in mind, what follows is a look at the top 25 sleepers to target on draft day.
In the simplest explanation, a sleeper is simply someone capable of outperforming his draft position by a sizable margin.
Whether it is a veteran player looking to bounce back from a rough season, a young post-hype player who could finally break out or a top prospect ready to make an impact, sleepers come in all shapes and sizes.
To qualify for the following list, a player had to have an average draft position outside of the top 150, with those numbers coming courtesy of Fantasy Pros. Players are listed by average draft position.
Note: Standard five-by-five rotisserie league scoring (BA, HR, RBI, R, SB for hitters; W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K for pitchers) and 22-man roster construction (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, UT, 5 OF, 9 P) was considered.
RF Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates (ADP: 150.8)
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Gregory Polanco entered last season as the No. 10 prospect in the league, and he made his big league debut for the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 10.
The 22-year-old went through some growing pains as a rookie, hitting just .235/.307/.343 with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases over 277 big league at-bats. However, he destroyed Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .328/.390/.504 line with 29 extra-base hits and 16 steals in 274 at-bats. The star potential remains heading into the 2015 season.
At the very least, he should be good for double-digit home runs and 20-plus stolen bases, but the upside is there for much, much more.
SP Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals (ADP: 151.8)
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With James Shields gone in free agency, the Kansas City Royals will turn to right-hander Yordano Ventura to lead their starting rotation this coming season. The 23-year-old went 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.295 WHIP and 159 strikeouts in 183 innings of work to finish sixth in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
He has the stuff to be legitimately dominant, with a fastball that averaged 97 mph (via FanGraphs) and a filthy curveball.
With an uptick in his strikeout rate, which was at 9.9 K/9 during his five seasons in the minors, he could significantly outperform his average draft position.
SP Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 152.0)
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Taken with the No. 22 pick in the 2012 draft, Marcus Stroman might have reached the majors in 2013 had it not been for a 50-game suspension that season stemming from unknowingly using a banned stimulant. At any rate, he made his debut May 4 of last season, pitching out of the bullpen, and by the end of the month he was making his first big league start.
He wound up being a staple in the rotation the rest of the way, going 11-6 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.171 WHIP and 111 strikeouts in 130.2 innings.
The 5'9" right-hander looks like the future ace of the Toronto Blue Jays rotation once Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey wrap up their time with the team, and he could be in for a big step forward in his second big league season.
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RF Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers (ADP: 171.2)
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The Texas Rangers were absolutely devastated by injuries last season, and free-agent signing Shin-Soo Choo was among the key players to miss significant time.
After signing a huge seven-year, $130 million deal, Choo dealt with a nagging ankle injury for much of the season and also missed 34 games when he had a bone spur removed from his left elbow.
The end result was a disappointing .242/.340/.374 line with 13 home runs and three stolen bases in his Rangers debut. That on the heels of a monster .285/.423/.462 season where he tallied 21 home runs and 20 stolen bases for the third 20/20 season of his career.
He should still have a few more prime years in the tank as he enters his age-32 season, and with the ankle problems behind him, his base stealing number should rebound. As long as he stays healthy, another 20/20 season is not out of the question.
RP Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres (ADP: 172.3)
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Joaquin Benoit served as the San Diego Padres' primary setup man for most of the 2014 season, but he took over as closer after Huston Street was traded to the Los Angeles Angels in July.
The 37-year-old went 10-of-11 on save chances and didn't allow an earned run following the trade. Opponents hit just .102 against him, and he struck out 18 hitters in 14.2 innings of work.
That marked the second straight season that Benoit wound up pitching in the closer's role after opening the year as a setup man, as he also went 24-of-26 on save chances with the Detroit Tigers in 2013.
With the Padres looking like a significantly improved team, there should be plenty of save chances for the veteran this season. Despite what looks like a great situation, he's currently being taken as the 21st eligible reliever off the board and 18th actual reliever (Alex Wood, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman also qualify).
SP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 173.0)
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The Tampa Bay Rays locked up Chris Archer with a six-year, $25.5 million deal last offseason after he finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013.
The 26-year-old continued his emergence as one of the game's best young pitchers in 2014, going 10-9 with a 3.33 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 194.2 innings.
That marked a nice increase in his strikeout rate from 7.1 K/9 in 2013 to 8.0 K/9, and he's capable of even more in that department.
With a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider that ranked as one of the most effective in baseball last season (according to FanGraphs), he has the stuff to continue his emergence as a front-line starter in a good, young Tampa Bay rotation.
1B Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals (ADP: 179.7)
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A big postseason performance can often be a jumping-off point for a young player into a breakout season the following year.
Eric Hosmer could fit that bill in 2015.
Christina Kahrl of ESPN agrees:
"There’s a decent cadre of semi-disappointing first basemen to choose from, guys you might be hoping might take a big, Anthony Rizzo-level step forward, as Rizzo did last year. ... If Hosmer’s performance down the stretch and into the postseason (.841 OPS in September, .983 in October) while working with new hitting coach Dale Sveum is any indication, he might finally start delivering in kind on the huge expectations Royals fans have piled on him for the last four years.
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Hosmer has a pair of solid seasons under his belt already (.799 OPS, 19 HR, 78 RBI in '11, .801 OPS, 17 HR, 79 RBI in '13), but the 25-year-old has yet to truly break out.
The 2015 season could be when we finally see him make that jump from good young player to star.
SS Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox (ADP: 183.2)
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Xander Bogaerts looks like as good a bet as a post-hype sleeper as anyone this year, as the 22-year-old came up well short of lofty expectations as a rookie last season.
Handed the everyday shortstop job to open the 2014 season, Bogaerts hit .240/.297/.362 with 28 doubles, 12 home runs and 46 RBI over 538 at-bats. Those numbers obviously don't look great, but he did finish the season strong, hitting .317 with five doubles, four home runs and 16 RBI over the final month of the year.
His plate discipline needs to improve (39 BB/138 K), but the tools are all still there for him to be a future star. Not being shuffled defensively between shortstop and third base should allow him to focus more on the offensive side of his game.
SP Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 184.7)
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Not only is Jose Quintana one of the most underrated players in all of baseball, but he also enters the 2015 season as a largely overlooked fantasy target.
The 26-year-old is coming off of back-to-back 200-inning seasons, as he was 9-11 with a 3.32 ERA, 1.243 WHIP and 178 strikeouts in 200.1 innings last season. That represented a nice climb in his strikeout rate from 7.4 K/9 in 2013 to 8.0 K/9, and with an improved roster around him, his win-loss record should look a little better this coming year.
There is something to be said for rounding out a fantasy rotation with steady, durable performers, and Quintana brings that to the table. However, the southpaw also offers some upside as he enters his prime, and he's a no-brainer in the 180 range.
SP Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays (ADP: 186.7)
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Cleveland Indians ace Corey Kluber helped win a lot of fantasy titles last year as a late-round sleeper pick.
"Who is this year's Corey Kluber, the pitcher who kind of comes out of nowhere to win the Cy Young Award or at least enter the discussion?" wrote David Schoenfield of ESPN last month. "I give you Drew Smyly."
One of the pieces acquired by the Tampa Bay Rays in the David Price trade last July, Smyly went 3-1 with a 1.70 ERA, 0.755 WHIP and 44 strikeouts in 47.2 innings in seven starts following the trade. That left him at 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA, 1.163 WHIP and 133 strikeouts in 153 innings on the year overall.
The 25-year-old is currently dealing with shoulder tendinitis and could start the season on the disabled list, but as long as that does not wind up being a lingering issue, that could potentially make him an even bigger bargain on draft day.
CF A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 194.3)
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A.J. Pollock was well on his way to a breakout season last year when a fractured right hand sidelined him for 79 games. The 27-year-old was hitting .316/.366/.554 with 16 doubles, six home runs, 15 RBI and eight stolen bases in 52 games at the time of the injury.
He returned in September and finished up the year with a .302/.353/.498 line that included 19 doubles, six triples, seven home runs, 24 RBI, 41 runs scored and 14 stolen bases in 265 at-bats.
If Pollock can continue to fill up the stat sheet at that sort of clip over a full 500-plus at-bats, or even come close, he'd be an absolute steal in the 15th-17th round range.
1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (ADP: 201.0)
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Brandon Belt was a popular sleeper pick last season after hitting .289/.360/.481 with 39 doubles, 17 home runs and 67 RBI on 2013.
Instead, the 26-year-old had trouble staying on the field, as a fractured thumb and concussion issues limited him to just 61 games on the year.
His triple-slash numbers dipped to .243/.306/.449 with 12 home runs and 27 RBI when he was on the field, and while he did put up solid numbers in the playoffs, that did little to keep him from being a fantasy disappointment.
Belt is currently the No. 28 first base-eligible player being taken on average. That includes a handful of players who call another position their primary home, but Belt still has the potential to be a terrific bargain sitting outside the top 200.
C Travis D'Arnaud, New York Mets (ADP: 210.8)
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Hitting just .180/.271/.273 through 128 at-bats, rookie catcher Travis d'Arnaud found himself demoted by the New York Mets to Triple-A Las Vegas at the beginning of June.
He returned a couple of weeks later a different player, batting .272/.319/.486 with 19 doubles and 10 home runs over the team's final 69 games of the season. That included a terrific final month that saw the 26-year-old hit .313/.371/.531 with 10 extra-base hits, eight RBI and 10 runs scored.
d'Arnaud is currently the No. 13 catcher being selected, but he could easily finish inside the top 10, making him an easy choice as the top sleeper option among catchers.
RF Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 228.8)
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The Chicago White Sox's big pickup in the three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Boston Red Sox, outfielder Avisail Garcia was expected to be an important young piece for a rebuilding franchise in 2014.
Instead, he wound up being a spectator for most of the year, as a torn labrum on April 10 cost him 113 games. He was originally expected to miss the rest of the season, but he did manage to return for 23 games in September.
The 23-year-old Garcia has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera, even earning the nickname "Little Miggy" when he first broke into the league with the Detroit Tigers as a 21-year-old in 2012.
With the additions of Adam LaRoche and Melky Cabrera to the White Sox lineup, Garcia should be able to settle into the No. 5 spot in the order and see plenty of RBI chances as he looks to finally turn potential into production over a full season.
RP Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies (ADP: 247.3)
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The No. 20 prospect in the Philadelphia Phillies system entering last season, according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, it's fair to say Ken Giles was pretty far off the radar of most fantasy owners.
The 24-year-old wound up being an absolute stud setting up Jonathan Papelbon, though, posting a 1.18 ERA, 0.788 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 45.2 innings.
The issue here is the aforementioned Papelbon, who will again be entrenched in the ninth-inning role after the front office was unable to unload his $13 million contract this offseason.
Even in a setup role, Giles has value with his strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. However, it's his upside as the potential replacement for Papelbon should the Phillies find a way to move him that makes him a nice sleeper target.
SP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (ADP: 250.2)
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The least hyped of the Seattle Mariners Big Three pitching prospects, alongside Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen, it's James Paxton who has found the most big league success to this point in his career.
The left-hander posted seven shutout innings of two-hit, nine-strikeout ball in his first start of the year in 2014, but he made just one more start before landing on the disabled list with a strained lat.
The injury wound up costing him 102 games, but he returned strong in August, going 4-3 with a 2.18 ERA and seven quality starts in his first nine games back.
A disastrous outing on Sept. 22 (2.2 IP, 8 ER) inflated his overall numbers, but he still finished the year at 6-4 with a 3.04 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 74 innings. The 26-year-old is capable of being one of the better lefty starters in all of baseball, and he could be the X-factor in the Mariners' push for the postseason.
LF Oswaldo Arcia, Minnesota Twins (ADP: 252.3)
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Looking for a cheap source of power in the late rounds? Look no further than Minnesota Twins left fielder Oswaldo Arcia.
The 23-year-old hit 20 home runs in 372 at-bats last season, and if he can stay healthy for a full season after missing time with a handful of different ailments last year, there is legitimate 30-homer potential here.
His .231/.300/.452 line is not going to help much, but if he can reduce his strikeout rate from the 31.0 percent it was at least season to something closer to 25.0 percent, those numbers could improve to a respectable level.
He's not a five-category player, but if your roster is lacking in pop when the 20th round rolls around, Arcia is a nice solution with some legitimate upside.
SP/RP Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays (ADP: 257.3)
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It's unclear at this point whether Aaron Sanchez will be used as a starter or reliever by the Toronto Blue Jays this coming season, but whatever role he finds himself in, he figures to make a significant impact.
The team's top prospect and the No. 32 prospect overall entering last season, Sanchez made his big league debut on July 23 and shined out of the bullpen down the stretch. All told, he posted a 1.09 ERA, 0.697 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 33 innings of work, converting all three of his save chances and adding seven holds.
With Casey Janssen departing in free agency, Sanchez and Brett Cecil will compete for the closer's job this spring, but he's also in the running for the No. 5 starter spot. Regardless of what role he fills, he looks like one of the leading candidates for AL Rookie of the Year and a nice low-risk, high-reward pick.
SP Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles (ADP: 268.7)
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The Baltimore Orioles starting rotation was one of the bigger surprises of the 2014 season, and it was the second-half emergence of Kevin Gausman that helped offset the struggles of Ubaldo Jimenez.
The No. 4 pick in the 2012 draft, Gausman finished the year at 7-7 with a 3.57 ERA, 1.315 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 113.1 innings over 20 starts.
Craig Williams of Sporting News likes the 24-year-old as a breakout candidate and great late-round target for the upcoming season:
"Sometimes it’s easy to pinpoint a pitcher’s upcoming breakout because everything comes together at once. Other times, like in Gausman’s case, the breakout is fueled by steady, almost under-the-radar improvement. Gausman’s 2014 full-season stats won’t blow you away, but make it a point to target him late in your 2015 draft(s), because he’s going to outperform his ADP.
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That would certainly go a long way in aiding the Baltimore Orioles in their efforts to defend their AL East title.
2B Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres (ADP: 271.8)
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Jedd Gyorko made a splash as a rookie in 2013, hitting .249/.301/.444 with 26 doubles and 23 home runs to rank as one of the better power options at the second base position. However, those numbers dipped to .210/.280/.333 with 17 doubles and 10 home runs last season, and a midseason bout with plantar fasciitis also cost him 45 games.
So where does Gyorko fit into the new-look Padres' lineup?
"The Padres retooled their lineup this offseason, and brought in power bats that should take pressure off Gyorko and allow him to flourish (while offering far more run-scoring and RBI opportunities). There is a lot of talent here, and those who believe in Gyorko’s ability should reap the rewards by season’s end," wrote Nando Di Fino of the New York Post.
Too put it simply, Gyorko is just too good of a hitter to struggle like he did in 2014. He was a .320/.386/.529 line during his time in the minors, and not many second basemen offer up the sort of power potential he does.
RF Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 280.4)
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One of the few remaining pieces from last year's Oakland Athletics lineup, Josh Reddick figures to be counted on as a key run producer for the team this coming season.
Reddick made a name for himself in 2012 when he launched 32 home runs in his first season with the A's, but he has just 24 long balls and a .245/.311/.412 line over the past two seasons combined.
So why the optimism?
The 28-year-old looked like a different hitter after the All-Star break last year, hitting .299/.337/.533 with 13 doubles, eight home runs and 30 RBI in 55 games. If nothing else, he's a nice upside pick to round out your crop of outfielders.
SP Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP: 282.2)
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In terms of pure stuff, Carlos Martinez stacks up to anyone in baseball right now. It's a matter of harnessing that stuff and finding some consistency in the command department that will determine just how good the young right-hander can be.
The 23-year-old was 2-1 with a 4.45 ERA in seven starts last season, spending the bulk of the season as one of the team's primary setup men for closer Trevor Rosenthal.
However, after Shelby Miller was shipped to the Atlanta Braves in the Jason Heyward deal, the No. 5 starter job is now his to lose this spring. If he breaks camp in the rotation, the potential is there for big strikeout numbers and a decent number of wins on a good St. Louis Cardinals team, if nothing else.
SP Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics (ADP: 298.0)
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Acquired from the Colorado Rockies last offseason in the Brett Anderson trade, Drew Pomeranz finally started to show the stuff that made him the No. 5 pick in the 2010 draft.
The left-hander made 20 total appearances for Oakland last season, 10 as a starter (4-3, 2.58 ERA) and 10 as a reliever (1-1, 1.62 ERA).
He's competing for one of the open rotation spots behind Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir this spring, and if he can break camp as a starter, he has a chance to surprise some people this season.
The 26-year-old had a 10.1 K/9 rate during his time in the minors, and a respectable 8.3 K/9 mark last season, so he has a chance to help out in that category as well as whatever he provides in wins and ERA.
SS Chris Owings, Arizona Diamondbacks (ADP: 302.3)
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The Arizona Diamondbacks officially committed to Chris Owings as their everyday shortstop this offseason when they shipped Didi Gregorius to the New York Yankees.
Owings was hitting .277/.313/.458 with 15 doubles, five triples, six home runs and 21 RBI over his first 238 at-bats when a left shoulder strain sidelined him at the end of June for 57 games. He struggled at the plate when he returned, hitting just .208/.256/.236 with one extra-base hit over his final 72 at-bats, but he has the offensive tools to make an impact when healthy.
Owings was a .330/.359/.482 hitter with 31 doubles, 12 home runs and 20 stolen bases in his last full season in the minors in 2013. There's no reason he can't be a 10/15 guy with a decent average, which is enough to make him a great late-round middle infield target.
SP Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (ADP: 328.5)
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The Milwaukee Brewers' decision to trade Yovani Gallardo this offseason was made a bit easier by the presence of right-hander Jimmy Nelson, who absolutely dominated Triple-A hitters last season before holding his own in his first extended big league action.
The 25-year-old went 10-2 with a 1.46 ERA, 0.919 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 111 innings in the minors, then went 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA (3.78 FIP) and 7.4 K/9 in 69.1 innings with the big club.
A lot of people like his teammate, Mike Fiers, as a late-round sleeper target, but Nelson looks to have more upside moving forward, whereas we may have already seen the best of Fiers.
He's probably not worth taking before your final pick, but as far as a lottery ticket to close out the draft goes, Nelson has a chance to surprise some people this year.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted. Any prospect rankings that were referenced come from Baseball America.
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