Fantasy 101: Rating the Rookie Running Backs

The success of Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and to a lesser extent Kevin Smith and Jonathan Stewart, demonstrated the value of rookie running backs.   Of course, they also show impact runners are not always found in the first round.  

On the flipside, the struggles of fourth overall pick Darren McFadden demonstrate the pitfalls of drafting a rookie runner too early. Of all of the positions, running back is the easiest position for a rookie to come in and make an early fantasy impact. 

Due to the risk of banking on rookie running backs, it is best to take select a rookie running back as your No. 2, or as a high upside backup runner. 

Don't be afraid to take a flyer on an unheralded rookie runner late in your draft as teams are filling out their rosters with limited upside veterans (see Steve Slaton and Tim Hightower in 2008).

In 2009 three running backs were selected in round one and six runners were selected in the first three rounds.  Which ones are worth an early selection? Which ones carry the most risk? Who is worth a late round flyer?  See below for the answers.

1. Knowshon Moreno, Denver Broncos—Moreno was the first back selected on draft day and is the safest pick to make an early impact among the 2009 running back class.  He lacks breakaway speed but his ability to run inside and out, along with his strong receiving skills, make him an excellent fit  for Josh McDaniels' offense (especially in PPR leagues). 

With the departure of Jay Cutler, the Broncos will likely rely more on their ground game than McDaniels' Patriots did.  On the downside, Moreno will be competing with numerous other runners for time, including Correll Buckhalter, but none of them should pose a serious threat to Moreno.

2. Chris "Beanie" Wells, Arizona Cardinals—Wells is built in the Steelers mold that Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt likes in his runners.  He will need to battle 2008 draftee Tim Hightower for carries, but Hightower's 2.8 yards per carry is hardly elite competition. 

Of greater concern is the poor run blocking of the Cardinals offensive line and how well Wells will fit into a pass-first Cardinals offense which often treats the ground game as an afterthought.  

Overall, Wells loses some value in PPR leagues, but could be a 1,200 yard rusher if he earns the starting job outright. 

3. Donald Brown, Indianapolis Colts—Brown's all-around skills as a runner and receiver make him an ideal fit for the Colts offense and if not for a looming two-back system, he would be the No. 1 running back on this list. 

Unfortunately, Brown is destined to alternate carries with former first rounder Joseph Addai (once regarded as one of the top fantasy runners). 

Unlike Addai, Brown is the type of back capable of carrying the full load, but due to Addai, he is not likely to receive that opportunity barring an injury. 

He is a safe bet for 700-800 yards and five to seven TDs, but his likely job share limits the 1,000+ yard possibilities.

4. Shonn Greene, New York Jets—The Jets prepared for life after Thomas Jones with the selection of Greene, but the question is whether the future will be this year or next. 

From a talent standpoint, Greene is a good runner between the tackles and should be a nice complement to Leon Washington in the Jets' two back system. 

Greene will also likely get the goal line carries once he earns the power back job. Overall, Greene's upside is limited by the two back system and is a better keeper pick than 2009 selection. 

5. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles—Like Donald Brown and Knowshon Moreno, McCoy landed in the perfect system for his skills.  He is very similar to Brian Westbrook and will obviously be groomed to replace him in the future. 

While Westbrook is likely to get the bulk of the carries this year, he is 30 years old and coming off yet another injury-plagued season.

He might appear to have limited upside this season, but Westbrook's injury status makes McCoy a must-have handcuff and/or mid-round flyer.  McCoy is an excellent pick up for keeper league's.

Late Round Sleepers:

Bernard Scott, Cincinnati Bengals—Scott fell in the NFL Draft due to off the field issues, but he has game-breaking talent and is on a team that takes chances on questionable characters.

Cedric Benson is not a sure thing in the backfield for the Bengals and if he struggles don't be surprised if Scott gets a chance. Scott tantalized with his burst during his preseason debut. My pick for this year's Tim Hightower.

James Davis, Cleveland Browns—Jamal Lewis is on his last legs and Jerome Harrison is more of a scat back than an every down guy, which could give Davis an opportunity.  Davis had a terrible senior season but given an opportunity, he could be a grinder who gets 3.5-4.0 yards per carry and maybe earns a goal line role. 

Gartrell Johnson, San Diego Chargers—The Chargers low profile selection of Johnson evokes memories of their Michael Turner selection a few years back.  Gartrell has a nice initial burst to the line but lacks breakaway speed.  If LT's decline and/or injuries continue, he could get a look. More of a late round flyer in keeper leagues.

Overall this year's rookie running back class is not as good as the 2008 class, especially from a depth perspective, so don't jump in too early. But if you can get one of these guys as a third or fourth running back you could have a pleasant surprise without much risk.

Chris Maier is the Senior Editor for Draft101.com and can be reached at [e-mail].