Fantasy Baseball: 8 Under-the-Radar Players to Target Late in Your Draft
Spring training is upon us, so do you know what that means? It's almost fantasy baseball season!
If you want to win your league (which, I mean, why wouldn't you?), a little bit of prep work can go a long way in helping you accomplish that goal. Unfortunately, that can be incredibly time-consuming. Luckily, that's what I'm here for.
In this piece, I'm going to help you figure out what players to target late in your drafts.
Last year, guys like Charlie Blackmon, Josh Harrison, Dee Gordon and Alfredo Simon went either late or un-drafted in most of your fantasy leagues, and the teams that snatched them up were able to reap huge benefits, including possible league championships.
Wouldn't it have been nice if you took a late-round flyer on someone like Blackmon or Harrison?
Well, this year you can, and here we're going to look at one player at each position going in the latter portions of your drafts who could help you win a league title.
Now, before we begin, I'll explain to you what qualifies as a "late" round selection. Anybody who is featured in this piece has an average draft position (ADP) above 150.
Why 150? Well, an ADP north of 150 suggests the player, on average, gets drafted in the 15th round or later. By then, most of your positions are filled out, but by identifying these late-round targets, you can afford to grab more coveted players in the earlier rounds.
To qualify players, we'll use NESN's publication of the NFBC Average Draft Positions for the 2015 season, found here. In each slide, I'll give you their ADP, as well as their projected spot in their respective lines, courtesy of Roster Resource (formerly MLBdepthcharts.com).
With all that out of the way, it's time to start getting you prepared!
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
Catcher: Miguel Montero
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Team: Chicago Cubs
ADP: 209.30
Projected Spot in Lineup: 5th
A change of scenery is going to do Miguel Montero a lot of good in 2015.
Fresh off two straight disappointing seasons, you can get the 31-year-old backstop cheap. I mean, super cheap. Montero is coming in with an ADP of 209.30, meaning he can be had near the back end of the 20th round in a 10-team league, and the 17th round in a 12-team league.
Montero is a stud hitter, and while the move to Chicago will provide him with a home stadium that is less friendly toward power hitters than his former home, it will play similarly in terms of extra-base-hit potential.
Montero's value lies in his ability to get on base and hit line drives. Last year, the nine-year veteran posted a 27 percent line-drive rate, exactly seven percentage points higher than the big league average in his career.
Playing at Wrigley Field will lend itself well to Montero's line-drive bias. His ability to put the ball in play (69 percent in-play percentage last year) coupled with the Cubs' dynamic lineup should help him cash in on numerous RBI opportunities.
If you wait on drafting your catcher (which I suggest you do), Montero is a prime option to target late in your draft.
First Base: Mike Napoli
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Team: Boston Red Sox
Average Draft Position: 264.76
Projected Spot in Lineup: 6th
Mike Napoli's ADP is 264.76. Wait, what?
Mike Napoli, in a 10-team league, is going in the 26th round. Are you guys even drafting that many players?
Well, you probably are and while I wouldn't advocate waiting this long on a first baseman—the bulk of your power production is going to come from this spot—if you can get Mike Napoli this late, do yourself a favor and snatch him up real quick.
Napoli isn't going to win you batting average or steals, but he'll help you in just about every other offensive category.
In 2014, the then-32-year-old logged a .248/.370/.419 slash line with 17 home runs, 20 doubles, 50 RBI and 49 runs scored. Not the sexiest stat line in the world, but he did put that up over just 119 games in a disappointing Red Sox lineup.
This year, the Sox lineup figures to be a whole lot better with the additions of Rusney Castillo, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, as well as full seasons from Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts.
Need more convincing? This year, according to his Steamer projections—found at FanGraphs.com—we can expect roughly a .243/.350/.440 batting line with 22 home runs, 73 RBI and 70 runs scored.
How's that for a 26th-rounder?
Second Base: Chase Utley
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Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Average Draft Position: 221.00
Projected Spot in Lineup: 3rd
Chase Utley showed some renewed signs of life and, more importantly, health in 2014. The 12-year veteran managed to appear in 150-plus games for the first time since his All-Star campaign back in 2009.
Heading into 2015, Utley, on average, can be had with a pick in the 20th or 21st round.
Despite concerns about his age (he's 36!) and a possible decline in production, he's worth the risk when you get this far into the draft.
Theoretically, you could go with the upside pick in Scooter Gennett (who can be had later in your draft) but Utley is more of a sure thing.
Steamer has Utley pegged for a .256/.326/.398 batting line with 13 home runs, 58 RBI and 60 runs scored.
To put those projections in perspective, last year, among qualified second basemen, Utley's projected .256 batting average, .326 OBP and .398 slugging percentage would rank 13th, 10th and ninth, respectively. Meanwhile, his 13 home runs, 58 RBI and 60 runs scored would rank seventh, 11th and 15th, respectively.
Keep in mind, those projections are over just 130 games. Health is always a factor to consider when drafting a player like Utley, but given the fact that he appeared in over 150 games last season (155 to be exact), it's a risk worth taking.
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Third Base: Chase Headley
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Team: New York Yankees
ADP: 222.63
Projected Spot in Lineup: 2nd
Maybe you want Martin Prado and his 3B/2B eligibility somewhere around the 20th round. Or, if you're like me, you will wait and select Chase Headley two rounds later.
There's a definite divide between Headley and top-tier third basemen like Adrian Beltre, Anthony Rendon and Josh Donaldson, but, hey, we're in Round 22. Beggars can't be choosers!
That said, I like Headley more than a lot of other late-round options like Brett Lawrie (who's now playing in the massive O.co Coliseum), Pedro Alvarez (who strikes out much too often for my liking) and Aramis Ramirez (I don't trust him to stay healthy at 36 years old).
So, why Headley?
Well, first, he plays in Yankee Stadium, which plays super-friendly toward left-handed hitters, making him a likely candidate to surpass his projection for 16 home runs in 2015. Second, he's going to hit second in a Yankee lineup that features Brett Gardner as a leadoff batter.
Did someone say RBI opportunities? The same set of projections referenced above has Headley driving in 67 runs in 2015, but there's potential for more depending on his performance and that of Gardner and Didi Gregorius, who are projected to hit first and ninth, respectively.
If you're looking to round out your team with a potential high-upside player, but don't want to do it early enough to select Kris Bryant, then Headley could be your guy.
Shortstop: Jhonny Peralta
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Team: St. Louis Cardinals
ADP: 189.03
Projected Spot in Lineup: 6th
I guess I like players who hit sixth in lineups. So what.
No matter where he hits in the lineup, Jhonny Peralta is a solid pick in the 18th or maybe even 19th round of your fantasy draft.
The Cardinals are stacked, and if there's one thing to know about teams that can challenge for World Series titles, it's that they produce heaps of great options in fantasy baseball. If a team scores a lot of runs, which the Cardinals should do this year, I want their players on my team.
So Peralta is an 18th- or 19th-round pick based on his ADP, but why do you want him on your team?
Last year, among qualified shortstops, Peralta ranked ninth in batting average (.263), third in OBP (.336), second in slugging percentage (.443), second in home runs (21), second in RBI (75) and 10th in runs scored (61). That's easily a top-10 fantasy shortstop.
He's projected for a bit of understandable regression in 2015, but the stat line Steamer has him pegged for is still that of a top-10 shortstop.
Outfield: Marlon Byrd
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Team: Cincinnati Reds
ADP: 234.25
Projected Spot in Lineup: 7th
Outfield is deep. I mean, really deep. Sure you have to draft more of them than you do any other single position, but there are a lot of quality outfielders to choose from in your drafts.
Digging deep here, I'm going to suggest Marlon Byrd of the Cincinnati Reds. For the low, low cost of a possible 23rd-round draft pick, you can be the proud owner of a projected 17 home runs, 64 RBI, 55 runs scored and a .246/.294/.403 batting line, per FanGraphs.com.
Sure, the on-base percentage is low, but most of you aren't playing in leagues that use on-base percentage anyway, so who cares?
Anyway, Byrd is a candidate to surpass those somewhat modest projections.
The 37-year-old (!) hits right-handed, which plays nicely into the dimensions of the ban box known as Great American Ball Park. He also hit 24 and 25 home runs in 2013 and 2014, respectively, so there's reason to believe that the move to GABP will at least cancel out the extra year of aging and boost his home run total up into the low 20s.
He's also projected to hit behind a trio of hitters (Devin Mesoraco, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips) who, if healthy, should produce plenty of opportunities for RBIs.
Durability concerns could be an issue, but what soon-to-be 38-year-old professional athlete doesn't have some durability concerns? Plus, this late in the draft, you can afford to miss on a guy.
Low risk, high reward. I'll take it.
Starting Pitcher: Danny Salazar
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Team: Cleveland Indians
ADP: 232.03
Projected Spot in Rotation: 5th
Danny Salazar was a sexy, semi-under-the-radar pick in last year's fantasy drafts (I know, I picked him), but the then-24-year-old failed to live up to expectations and posted a disappointing 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP over 20 starts with the big league club.
That said, Salazar posted solid strikeout and walk rates (25.3 percent and 7.4 percent, respectively). Those, along with his FIP (3.52) and BAbip (.344), suggest that he was extremely unlucky, per Baseball-Reference.com.
His bad luck in 2014 is your good fortune in 2015.
Steamer projections have Salazar pitching to a 1.8 WAR season with 10 wins, a 3.45 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP and 162 strikeouts. Those projections come in a season in which they project Salazar to make 27 starts over 153 innings pitched.
The Dominican Republic native can easily beat those projections though and the strikeout totals make him a solid option to round out the back end of your rotation. The upside is certainly there, he just has to pitch to it.
Closer: Joaquin Benoit
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Position: Closer
ADP: 162.15
Joaquin Benoit is no spring chicken. In fact, the 13-year veteran is entering his age-37/38 season, and his second with the San Diego Padres.
Benoit pitched exceptionally well in 2014, allowing just a 1.49 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP over a total of 54.1 innings pitched. In said innings, Benoit averaged 10.6 K/9 to just 2.3 BB/9, good for a 4.57 K/BB ratio.
In short, despite his age, Benoit is a solid option at the back end of a bullpen.
What I look for in drafting a closer is a good team. Of course I care about a solid track record from the man throwing in the ninth inning, but if he's not on a team that provides him with save opportunities, then what good is a closer?
Beyond that, why are you drafting a closer early anyway? Wait on your closer. Unless you really feel you need to get one of the top guys, then there's no reason to spend an early pick on one, as the position is easily the most volatile in fantasy baseball.
For those reasons, Benoit is my under-the-radar pick as a closer to target in your draft. Maybe the Padres aren't so under the radar after a flurry of offseason moves that have propelled them into contender status, but Benoit, according to the NFBC, can be had late in your draft (16th round) compared to other closers (Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel are going, on average, in the fourth).
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