Fantasy Baseball 2015: Ranking the Top 85 Starting Pitchers
With the top 150 fantasy baseball players all ordered and ranked on the initial 2015 Big Board, the individual position rankings are well underway. All told, there will be (count 'em) 300 players ranked.
After providing some sequencing to the third basemen last time out, next up are the starting pitchers, an impossibly deep position.
As such, rather than waste any time here going through the tiers, it's better to just get right down to it. Here, you can peruse the top 85 overall fantasy starters, as well as a few others you should watch, including potential impact rookies.
The only point to make before getting to that: Fantasy owners won't have a problem piecing together a pitching staff filled with fantasy-friendly arms, even if they grab just one in the first 10 rounds or, frankly, wait that long to take their first. Yes, the position is that deep.
These rankings consider three factors:
First, everything is based on 10- or 12-team mixed leagues with standard 5x5 rotisserie scoring (BA, R, HR, RBI, SB for hitters; W, ERA, WHIP, K, SV for pitchers).
Second, lineup construction accounts for 22 active-roster positions consisting of: one each for catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, corner infield, middle infield and utility, along with five outfielders and nine pitchers.
And third, to be eligible at a particular position, players either must have played at least 20 games there in 2014 or be in line to start there in 2015.
The Starting Pitcher "Watch List"
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Jimmy Nelson, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers traded Yovani Gallardo to open up a rotation spot for Nelson, a 6'6" righty who was their top prospect this time last year. Although he's already 25 and struggled at times in his 14 games with the Crew (4.93 ERA), Nelson was so good at Triple-A in 2014 (1.46 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.2 K/9) that it's worth finding out if he can be more than a streaming option in 10- or 12-team leagues.
Patrick Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
As he was trying to follow up on his breakthrough 2013, Corbin's elbow gave out early on last year, and he underwent Tommy John surgery. He says he's feeling great at the outset of camp, per Adam Green of ArizonaSports.com, and if he stays on schedule in his recovery, he could be back by the end of the first half. That would make him a potential midseason waiver-wire add.
Brett Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
With Anderson, you know what the "if only" is about by now—health. The Dodgers are gambling $10 million that they can coax 20-plus starts out of the 27-year-old, something he hasn't done since (sheesh) his rookie season in 2009. He is strictly a last-round dart toss in the event he can stay on the mound for 12-15 turns and throw up some solid ratios.
Tanner Roark, SP, Washington Nationals
Yep, a guy who finished in the top 20 in both ERA (2.85) and WHIP (1.09) in all of baseball last year doesn't crack the top 85 starting pitchers. That's how darn deep this position is. Of course, it's also because Roark himself can't crack the ridiculous, Max Scherzer-bolstered five-man rotation in Washington. So for now, the 28-year-old likely will be relegated to bullpen/injury-replacement duty. Be ready to pounce if someone in D.C. goes down.
Noah Syndergaard, SP, New York Mets
Syndergaard is arguably the top overall pitching prospect in the game right now, and he's on the verge of making his MLB debut as soon as the Mets clear a spot for him in their overcrowded rotation—or as soon as "Thor" shoves it back in Triple-A and forces the club's hand. He'll be a hot waiver-wire add once he's promoted, and he has the goods and home park to be a fifth starter in most formats right away.
Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Compared to Syndergaard, Heaney is more likely to open the year in a big league rotation, but the Angels lefty's stuff isn't on the same level. Heaney's first taste didn't go well (5.83) when the Marlins called him up last June, but it was only seven games. In 14-team leagues or AL-onlies, Heaney is a nice under-the-radar grab, because he should provide steady (just not spectacular) stats.
Alex Meyer, SP, Minnesota Twins
Meyer is massive on the mound, standing even taller than his 6'9" listed height, and he throws in the upper-90s with a wipeout slider, too. A September shoulder scare likely cost him his debut, but Meyer will pitch in Minnesota this year, probably sooner than later in the first half. The Twins may break him in as a reliever, but the strikeouts will be there either way.
Nos. 85-81
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No. 85: Joe Kelly, SP, Boston Red Sox
In late January, Joe Kelly offered his pick for the AL Cy Young Award, and he chose—wait for it—himself. Doubtful, but then again, the reigning winner is a guy by the name of Corey Kluber who was a relative unknown at this time last year. Kelly, 26 and coming off an injury-plagued 2014, does own a solid 3.41 ERA for his career, albeit with a not-so-fantasy-friendly 1.36 WHIP and 6.0 K/9. But hey, if confidence counts for anything...
No. 84: Carlos Martinez, SP/RP, St. Louis Cardinals
Kelly's former teammate and fellow hard-throwing right-hander, Martinez is set to step into a starting role for the Cardinals after being used in relief for much of his first two seasons. There's breakout potential here, but the 23-year-old six-footer needs to show he can hold up and throw more than 108 innings—his career high to date—in a season.
No. 83: Mike Fiers, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Sadly more well-known for ending Giancarlo Stanton's 2014 season with a fastball to the face, Fiers actually has pitched rather well in his limited MLB career. The 29-year-old sports a 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.2 K/9 in 50 games (35 starts), and he was even better than that in all three categories in 14 games (10 starts) last year. Because he's older to have so few career outings and doesn't have big stuff, Fiers could be more of a mirage, but at such a low cost, why not give him a whirl?
No. 82: Matt Garza, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Garza doesn't get the strikeouts he once did, and he's clearly declining overall at age 31, but his ERA (3.64 in '14) and WHIP (1.18) have stayed steady in that quality-streaming-starter range.
No. 81: Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
At 32, Santana is nothing special, but he seems to exceed expectations more often than not, all while throwing close to 200 frames and striking out enough to keep his owners happy. Despite being on his fourth team in four years, he'll get to keep throwing in a pitcher's park.
Nos. 80-76
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No. 80: Kyle Lohse, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Fiers' rotation-mate, Lohse is about as boring as it gets, but in this case, that's not a bad thing because of how consistent he is. The 36-year-old has posted an ERA between 2.86 (2012) and 3.54 (2014) and a WHIP between 1.09 ('12) and 1.17 (2011, 2013) in each of the past four seasons. Even though he won't hit the 150-strikeout mark, owners should appreciate those robust ratios.
No. 79: John Lackey, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Traded from the Red Sox last July, Lackey was the rare player to join the Cardinals and not immediately (and magically?) get better, as his ERA with the latter was about three-quarters of a run higher at 4.30. The 36-year-old's late-career revival could continue in St. Louis, though, especially now that he's had his first go at the NL. If he lasts the year, Lackey could strike out 160-170 with a mid- to high-3.00s ERA.
No. 78: Wade Miley, SP, Boston Red Sox
In crossing the 200-inning plateau for the second straight season, Miley took a step back in ERA last year (3.55 to 4.34), but his FIP remained exactly the same (3.98), and he struck out a career-high 8.2 per nine. Just remember: The transition from the NL to the AL East and Fenway Park isn't an easy one.
No. 77: R.A. Dickey, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Dickey's glorious 2012 is getting further in the rearview mirror, but he's still racked up 177 (2013) and 173 (2014) whiffs the past two years, and his 3.71 ERA last year was much more palatable than 2013's 4.21 mark. Because he throws so many innings, the wins and strikeouts will be there, and he won't hurt you much, if at all, in ERA and WHIP.
No. 76: Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves
An underrated fantasy gem in late 2012 and 2013, Minor was never quite right last year, starting when he needed a scary-sounding procedure in the offseason that set him back a bit and may have caused his shoulder inflammation in camp. That limited the 27-year-old to 25 starts, many of which around midseason were especially poor, as he put up a 7.33 ERA across 10 starts from June 10 to Aug. 1. A healthy winter could help Minor turn things around and recapture his SP 4 upside.
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Nos. 75-71
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No. 75: Jason Hammel, SP, Chicago Cubs
Hammel, 32, was a big-time bounce-backer in the first half with the Cubs (2.98 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 8.6 K/9), but he faltered immediately upon returning to the AL in the July 4 trade alongside Jeff Samardzija to the A's. Having signed back with Chicago this winter, Hammel presents a savvy late-round take, since we've seen what he can do in that very situation.
No. 74: Matt Shoemaker, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Shoemaker came from who-knows-where to finish a surprising second to Jose Abreu in the AL Rookie of the Year voting as a 27-year-old rook. Nothing in his minor league track record indicates he can repeat his 3.04 ERA, 1.07 WHIP or 8.2 K/9, but at the same time, those numbers also make it hard to completely write him off.
No. 73: Henderson Alvarez, SP, Miami Marlins
Alvarez somehow will be only 24 when the season starts, and while he doesn't strike anybody out (4.8 K/9 career), he did nudge it up to 5.3 per nine last year while carrying a stellar 2.65 ERA and solid 1.24 WHIP, despite battling through arm trouble for much of the second half. Don't overrate him because of that ERA when his FIP was nearly a full run higher at 3.58, but Alvarez has his uses.
No. 72: James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners
Paxton was very solid as a rookie last year—when he was healthy enough to take the ball. The 26-year-old hard-throwing southpaw had a 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 7.2 K/9, but he made all of 13 starts because of a strained left shoulder that kept him out from April until August. The former prospect would be ranked 10-15 spots higher based on his tantalizing upside at Safeco Field, but in five pro seasons, he's thrown more than 106.1 innings just once and never more than 145.2.
No. 71: Nate Eovaldi, SP, New York Yankees
Eovaldi could be a sneaky selection this year, as a still-young 25-year-old with enough big league experience on his resume by now to start putting everything together. That he possesses one of the biggest arms around doesn't hurt, either, with an average fastball velocity of 95.7 mph, which ranked as the fourth-highest in baseball. Transitioning from the cozy NL East to the smaller parks of the AL East, including his new home at Yankee Stadium, won't make things any easier, but Eovaldi has plenty more juice to be squeezed.
Nos. 70-66
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No. 70: Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians
Owners who invested heavily in Salazar off a stellar but small-sample-size 10 starts in 2013 were roundly disappointed when he had a 5.53 ERA and was demoted to Triple-A in mid-May. But the 25-year-old was much better upon rejoining the Indians rotation in late July, with a 3.50 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 68.1 frames over his final 12 turns. If that's the Salazar that surfaces in 2015, he'll place much higher than this—and you'll want him.
No. 69: Shelby Miller, SP, Atlanta Braves
Miller looked like a possible SP 2 in the making as a dynamite rookie in 2013, but his follow-up was a tale of two halves as he notched an off-putting 4.29 ERA and 1.47 WHIP prior to the break, only to save his season with a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP post. That said, the 24-year-old's resurgence was bolstered by a .215 BABIP, and he only struck out 6.6 per nine (compared to an even worse 6.0 K/9 in the first half). Traded to the Braves in November, Miller will look to prove he's closer to the latter version he flashed.
No. 68: Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland Athletics
Overall, Kazmir's 2014 was quite good, as he posted a 3.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 in 190.1 innings, second-most in the injury-prone lefty's 10-year career. But the 31-year-old faded badly in the second half, with a 6.05 ERA and 1.46 WHIP over his final 11 turns. Pitching in Oakland keeps him relevant enough as an SP 5 in fantasy, but don't draft him too high based on what you remember from his All-Star first half.
No. 67: Danny Duffy, SP, Kansas City Royals
It seems like nobody ever talks about Duffy, despite his being just 26 and having sported a sparkly 2.53 ERA. Maybe that's because he had a late-season bout of shoulder soreness, or because his FIP was more than a run higher (3.83) or because he only struck out 6.8 per nine. But this is still a lefty who sits in the mid-90s and showed he can handle starting. The ERA is going to jump, but Duffy has the goods to strike out 160-plus if he can get close to 200 innings for the first time in his career, and K.C.'s pitcher's park helps.
No. 66: Rick Porcello, SP, Boston Red Sox
After years of waiting for some kind of improvement in Porcello's performance, fantasy owners finally got to enjoy having him on their staff, thanks to a 3.43 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, both career bests. The 26-year-old ground-baller could benefit from leaving Detroit's poor infield defense for Boston's better unit, but he still leaves a lot to be desired in the K category: After a bump to 7.2 K/9 in 2013, he was back down to 5.7 last year. That limits his fantasy ceiling to a useful fifth starter.
Nos. 65-61
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No. 65: Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians
Now here's an upside pick. The former No. 3 overall pick in 2011, Bauer is just 24 and made significant gains in his first year as a full-time rotation member. The enigmatic right-hander used his mid-90s heat and plus curveball (when it's on) to rack up 143 strikeouts in 153 frames, and while his 3.5 BB/9 still won't pass as good, it was much improved from what he'd shown in the past as a pro. There's still room for improvement, which is promising, because with just a little more consistency, Bauer has it in him to become a breakout arm in 2015.
No. 64: Drew Hutchison, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Admit it: You had no idea Hutchison whiffed 9.0 batters per nine last year, tied with Tyson Ross for the 15th-best rate in MLB. Even more importantly, he made it through 184.2 innings in his first full season off Tommy John surgery, so he could have even more in him this year, as evidenced by his 3.85 FIP compared to his 4.48 ERA.
No. 63: Francisco Liriano, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Long one of the most tantalizing but ultimately disappointing fantasy arms around, Liriano did well to re-sign with the Pirates and recognize that what he has going in Pittsburgh is working. The 31-year-old still is prone to the occasional blow up because of his shaky control (4.5 BB/9 in '14, 3.9 BB/9 career), but he has whiffed more than a batter per in each of his last two seasons in the Burgh, while posting a 3.20 ERA, too. Just start him and stay patient, because in the end, the numbers you want will be there, even if it isn't always pretty from start to start.
No. 62: Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees
Pineda finally pitched in pinstripes—more than two years after the Yankees acquired him from the Mariners following his impressive rookie season in 2011. Granted, he also made another lengthy trip to the DL, this time for back/shoulder strain, but what Pineda showed while he was active for 13 scattered starts is enough to get excited about: 1.89 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.0 K/9. If you grab him, just make sure you're prepared for no more than 15-20 starts or 130-150 innings (at most), but you'll enjoy what you do get out of him.
No. 61: Matt Cain, SP, San Francisco Giants
Cain is a tough one to rank right now, because we still don't know just how healthy he is following surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow (not to mention, two other trips to the DL, one for a finger laceration, the other for a strained hammy). Given that he's 30 and has a lot of wear and tear on his arm, we've likely seen the best of Cain, but that doesn't mean he can't provide solid SP 5 stats at reduced value if healthy. Keep tabs in spring.
Nos. 60-56
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No. 60: Cliff Lee, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
One of the most consistent and durable starts in the sport for several seasons, Lee let down owners everywhere with a 13-start 2014 after making at least 28 every year since 2007. The 36-year-old has been throwing in camp, which is a good sign, but whether his left arm can make it through a full year is completely unknown. With so much pitching depth, it's not a bad play to snag Lee late to see what he can offer, and if it doesn't work out, some other arm on the waiver wire will provide quality coverage.
No. 59: Jose Fernandez, SP, Miami Marlins
A third straight injured fantasy stud, Fernandez is doing well in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, but he isn't expected to be back until around midseason, as GM Dan Jennings recently said, via Christina De Nicola of Fox Sports Florida, that the time frame for the 22-year-old's return likely will be in the June 15 to July 15 range.
That means, even with no setbacks between now and then, Fernandez would make 20 starts—at absolute most. Don't overpay here (think: Rounds 12-15), but if your league allows for a player to be stashed on the DL, Fernandez might be the best candidate to do so entering the 2015 season. And in keeper formats, feel free to take him as early as Round 8 for his return to SP 1 status in 2016.
No. 58: Dallas Keuchel, SP, Houston Astros
Either unknown or unwanted at this time last year, Keuchel pumped out one of the more impressive years in the game last season. To wit, his smashing 63.5 percent ground-ball rate was No. 1 in MLB and the second-highest mark in the past five years (behind only Tim Hudson's 64.1 percent rate in 2010).
That explains how Keuchel pulled off a 2.93 ERA despite a 6.6 K/9. Of course, the worm-burner percentage is liable to come down some, meaning the 27-year-old's ERA should rise, so it'd be nice if he can register some more whiffs. But this wasn't just some fluky one-year wonder.
No. 57: Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros
McHugh, 27, is ranked right with his rotation-mate here, indicating that while he, too, was a never-heard-of who broke through nicely with a 2.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.1 K/9, there's a quality fantasy arm here that shouldn't simply be written off.
If there's reason for trepidation, it's that McHugh held opponents to a .259 BABIP and allowed just 13 homers in 154.2 frames after surrendering 11 in his first 47.1 innings across 2012-13. But while he won't repeat that stellar ERA and WHIP again, his improved velocity and quality breaking pitches (slider, curve) indicate we can stop with the McWho jokes.
No. 56: Brandon McCarthy, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Following a disturbingly poor first half (5.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP), McCarthy was a different pitcher after getting traded to the Yankees last July, notching a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. While his true performance is going to be somewhere in the middle of those two spectrum ends and he's always going to be an injury risk—he made more than 25 starts and topped 175 innings for the first time in his nine-year career—the 31-year-old did see his average velocity jump into the 92-93 mph range. If McCarthy can maintain the gains, he may prove to be a solid fantasy fourth starter with a chance for more.
Nos. 55-51
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No. 55: Mat Latos, SP, Miami Marlins
Only 27, Latos nevertheless already appears to be in decline after averaging 200 innings a year in the majors from ages 22 through 25. Most foreboding? His fastball has lost about three to four miles per hour from those years, down to a career-low 90.7 in 2014. Granted, he wasn't quite himself because he was coming off elbow and then knee surgery last offseason, but that 6.5 K/9 was way below his norm.
As for the good news, at least Latos is not coming off two separate procedures this year and has a new, much more pitcher-friendly park to call home. Still, don't think of him—or dare draft him—as the SP 3 he once was.
No. 54: Derek Holland, SP, Texas Rangers
Holland, 28, has been a perennial fantasy tease throughout his six big league seasons, and just when it appeared he could be in line for his best year yet, he tripped over his dog last winter and missed all but the final month of 2014 while recovering from microfracture knee surgery. Don't forget about Holland on draft day, though, as once he made it back, he really was rather good: 1.46 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in six games.
No. 53: Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Very (very) quietly, Odorizzi posted a top-10 K/9 rate of 9.3, all while making advancements as his rookie campaign progressed. The soon-to-be 25-year-old had a gnarly 6.85 ERA at April's end but shrunk that to 3.68 over his final 26 starts. While he may not continue his batter-per-inning whiff pace, Odorizzi should be ready to throw 200 innings with an ERA that looks more like his 3.75 FIP rather than his actual 4.13 mark last year.
No. 52: Wily Peralta, SP, Milwaukee Brewers
Although Peralta's best fantasy contribution last year came in the always-fickle wins category (17), he showed solid strides all around in his second full big league season, improving in ERA (4.37 to 3.53), WHIP (1.42 to 1.30) and strikeouts (129 to 154). With a little more consistency and command, the 25-year-old should be able to avoid repeating the four ratio-killing outings he had in which he gave up 28 runs and 39 baserunners in 18 frames that made his final stats look worse than they maybe should have been.
No. 51: Chris Tillman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
Tillman's 4.42 FIP in 2013 seemed to make him a regression candidate following his long-awaited breakout, and that was the case as he carried a 5.20 ERA through his first 13 outings, including four disaster turns. From that point forward, however, the righty didn't allow more than three earned runs in a start until his final one of the year and compiled a 2.38 ERA over 21 games to finish 2014 with a better ERA (3.34) than he had in '13 (3.71).
But unless Tillman, who tuns 27 on Tax Day, cleans up his control a bit more (2.9 BB/9) and returns his strikeout rate closer to 2013's 7.8 per nine compared to last year's 6.5, it's hard to see him as more than a solid SP 4/5.
Nos. 50-46
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No. 50: Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Wacha was rolling along in 2014, building on his late-2013 coming-out party, when his season was interrupted by a stress fracture in his right shoulder, a rare and tricky injury for a pitcher. That leaves the 23-year-old very much in the who-knows bin entering 2015.
Given his success in his young career (3.04 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.3 K/9), Wacha should be a borderline must-start SP as long as he's healthy. But he can't rank much higher than this because relying on him as anything more than a fourth starter is probably asking too much. As Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes, "Brandon McCarthy...has experienced regular interruptions to his pitching because of the same condition that messed up Wacha in '14."
No. 49: Drew Smyly, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
This 25-year-old is going to be a popular sleeper (if such a thing exists) because of his dominant numbers—including a 1.70 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and 8.2 K/9—after getting traded to the Rays at the deadline. But let's not overrate a mere seven starts, during which his opponents' BABIP was a laughably low .186.
While Smyly is in an organization that does right by up-and-coming arms, he's a finesse lefty who is anything but dominant. If your league-mates don't inflate his draft stock into top-40 territory based on his end-of-season run, feel free to snatch Smyly; otherwise, let someone else overpay.
No. 48: Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners
There are oh-so-many reasons to like Walker, from his former top-prospect status to his upper-90s heater and nasty cutter to his age (22) to his impressive numbers in limited big league action (2.89 ERA, 1.21 WHIP in 53 IP).
But all of that is threatened by the fact that Walker might not crack the M's deep rotation, at least to open the year, as he has to beat out two of J.A. Happ, Roenis Elias and Erasmo Ramirez. "I get the impression he’s on a mission right now," general manager Jack Zduriencik said of Walker's quest to make Seattle's starting rotation, via Larry Stone of The Seattle Times.
In this case, we'll bet on the talent ultimately earning the opportunity, whether it's on Opening Day or soon thereafter.
No. 47: Kevin Gausman, SP, Baltimore Orioles
While good, Gausman's stats (3.57 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in '14) don't yet match his stuff, which is great and includes a high-90s fastball, swing-and-miss changeup and improving slider. That means the 24-year-old, who was drafted fourth overall in 2012, is one of the few high-end arms who still can be drafted at a reasonable price before he turns into a potential SP 3 this season. Gausman could be this year's Alex Wood.
No. 46: Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres
Cashner gets a lot of fantasy love for a guy who hasn't had a truly great season in his five-year career (yet?). His stuff, especially that heavy, moving mid-90s fastball, is nasty, but the 28-year-old has endured so many stops-and-starts with his shoulder that he has made even 20 starts but once (2013) and has not surpassed 175 frames in a single season.
While he set new career bests with a 2.55 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2014, he also made two trips to the DL, one for an elbow strain, the other for more shoulder inflammation. And not for nothing, but his electric stuff hasn't translated to whiffs, as Cashner owns a 6.7 K/9 rate across 2013-14. The only way to justify ranking him much higher than this is if you can get the person with the Cashner voodoo doll to stop sticking pins in it for a year.
Nos. 45-41
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No. 45: Doug Fister, SP, Washington Nationals
Fister was a freakin' magician in 2014, pulling a career-best 2.41 ERA out of his hat despite his worst advanced stats in years. While the move to the more pitcher-accommodating NL, especially in the East, helped the 31-year-old, he also was overwhelmingly lucky.
Fister, who missed the first month-plus with a shoulder strain, scored a .262 BABIP (fifth-lowest in MLB) and an 83.1 percent left-on-base mark, which was the highest in the game. He also allowed a career-high 18 home runs and whiffed a meager 5.4 per nine.
All of this explains why his FIP was 3.93—or a full run-and-a-half north of his ERA. Fister is strictly a ratio play, and a strong one at that, but don't be fooled into drafting him as more than an SP 4.
No. 44: Homer Bailey, SP, Cincinnati Reds
While Bailey comes with similar injury concerns as Cliff Lee and Matt Cain, he's ranked about 15 spots higher because of he's still in his prime at 28 and actually was pretty good last year when healthy. Yes, you probably remember Bailey's terrible start, with a 6.15 ERA through April, but that was the result of a crazy-high .416 BABIP and wicked 29.2 HR/FB percentage.
From that point on, he posted a 3.17 mark over his final 18 outings before a bulging disc in his neck cut his season short in August. Bailey also had early September surgery to fix a torn flexor mass tendon in his right elbow, giving him a full winter (and then some) to recover.
That sounds like a lot to deal with—and it is—which is why Bailey isn't expected to be ready by Opening Day. But he has been throwing bullpen sessions, as C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports, and should be back in April. To be safe, follow his progress in March.
No. 43: Jered Weaver, SP, Los Angeles Angels
We've just about given up on waiting for Weaver's under-the-hood decline to manifest itself in the fantasy world, as he outperformed his peripherals for, like, the eleventieth time in 2014, despite a "fastball" that barely cracks 87 these days.
That said, the 32-year-old's ERA (3.59) and WHIP (1.21) were his worst since 2009, and his FIP climbed for a fourth straight time to a career-worst 4.19. Weaver's 18 wins drove a lot of his value, but don't look for that to repeat. Be careful here, because he could steer off a cliff at any moment.
No. 42: Ian Kennedy, SP, San Diego Padres
Kennedy's bounce-back 2014 was quite good, but he could be even better in 2015. To wit, the 30-year-old's underlying stats were very similar at home and on the road, but his ERA was more than a half a run higher (3.93 versus 3.32), meaning he didn't get the full benefit of Petco Park. With a little more luck—not to mention, an actual offense behind him this year—Kennedy could bump down his ERA and bump up his win total.
No. 41: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Ryu's 2014 is an example of a pitcher throwing better but actually getting slightly worse results in some of the traditional five-by-five fantasy categories. The lefty, who turns 28 at the end of March, saw his ERA jump from a great 3.00 to still-strong 3.38, and he struck out just 139 batters compared to 154 as a rookie in 2013. And yet, his strikeout rate went up to 8.2 per nine while his walk rate dipped to 1.7 per, so Ryu's FIP fell from 3.24 to 2.62.
Of course, Ryu's health didn't give him a chance to reach a full work load (152 IP), as he was sidelined by shoulder inflammation and a strained gluteus. While the metrics paint the picture of a borderline SP 3, Ryu also is battling yet another injury already, as he's been slowed by lower-back tightness. If he's good to go during spring games, he could be nudged up a few spots.
Nos. 40-36
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No. 40: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers
If we're being honest, this is a total hedge on Verlander, because really, who the heck knows what to expect from the former No. 1 overall fantasy pitcher-turned-fantasy catastrophe? The 32-year-old certainly looked to be continuing a rapid decline last year, as his ERA (4.54), WHIP (1.40) and K/9 (6.9) were all his worst since 2008.
The rub is that although Verlander didn't miss a start—he has now made 30-plus for nine straight seasons—he also was dealing with the aftereffects of core-muscle surgery from last winter. For what it's worth, the righty says he finally feels better than he has in years after a normal winter.
What's more, as bad as he was last year, his 3.74 FIP indicates last year might have been the rock bottom, and now Verlander is in position to bounce back—just not to his prime performance. But wouldn't you take the 3.46 ERA, 1.32 and 217 strikeouts he put up in 2013? If he can approach it, that is.
No. 39: Anibal Sanchez, SP, Detroit Tigers
Sanchez's performance backed up after his career year in 2013, but injury was the biggest culprit, as he battled a lacerated finger and then a more serious strained chest muscle later in the year. All told, he made just 21 starts.
Even with those problems and a drop-off from 10.0 K/9 to 7.3—a mark much more in line with the rest of his career—the 31-year-old Sanchez's 2.71 FIP wasn't much higher than his 2.39 from the season prior. Chances are you can get him at a discount because of the average ERA (3.43) and low innings total (126), and that makes Sanchez a big-time value.
No. 38: Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals
Last year was a huge one for the undersized Ventura, who proved he could make it through a full big league season as a starter despite checking in at 6'0" and 180 pounds.
Possessor of the second-fastest fastball (96.0) among starting pitchers, Ventura was able to overcome his still-shaky control (3.4 BB/9) and out-pitch his 3.60 FIP to the tune of a 3.20 ERA. If the 23-year-old's command and/or secondary stuff can take another step in 2015, he's going to make his owners mighty happy.
No. 37: Phil Hughes, SP, Minnesota Twins
Well, where had that been hiding? Hughes went from highly regarded prospect to intriguing young big leaguer to overhyped bust in his Yankees tenure, but his first season away from New York was revelatory. Hughes, in case you forgot, set the all-time record with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 11.6 in 2014.
The funny thing is, the 28-year-old remained rather hittable, allowing 9.5 per nine, and his 3.52 ERA was solid but not spectacular. Heck, same goes for his strikeout rate of 8.0 per nine. If you think there's more in there than what Hughes did—in a record-setting campaign—then by all means, reach for him. But he's a solid SP 4, and likely not much more.
No. 36: Carlos Carrasco, SP/RP, Cleveland Indians
Because he started so badly, was banished to the bullpen and only returned to the rotation for good in mid-August, there's at least a small chance that some owners in your league didn't notice the utter dominance Carrasco displayed down the stretch.
After the All-Star break, the electric-armed righty was masterful, crafting a 1.72 ERA that was the lowest in MLB. There's more, too: In his final 10 starts, Carrasco, who turns 28 in late March, sported a silly 1.30 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and struck out 78 in 69 innings.
While there is a little bit of a comparison here to what Indians rotation-mate Danny Salazar pulled off in late 2013, only to disappoint last year, all you had to do was watch Carrasco to see that he started to put everything together.
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No. 35: Gio Gonzalez, SP, Washington Nationals
Nat Gio has been a steady source of strikeouts to go along with a good ERA and solid WHIP for the past five years. The 29-year-old took a hit in the health department in 2014, though, and he missed a month midseason with shoulder inflammation.
Upon coming back, the southpaw with the big curveball was his usual self, hurling a 3.08 ERA and striking out 109 in 108 frames. If he makes 30 starts in 2015, he'll flirt with 200 whiffs.
No. 34: Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees
Tanaka is one of the biggest X-factors in fantasy baseball at the moment, and given the nature of his injury—a partially torn elbow ligament—he's likely to remain in that position all year long. Or at least until his elbow snaps (which it might not at all after a full winter of rest and rehab).
Over the first half of Tanaka's first MLB season, few pitchers were better than the 26-year-old Japanese sensation, who had a 2.51 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 135 strikeouts in 129.1 pre-break innings. Oh, and he registered a quality start in each of his first 16 outings in the majors, thanks in large part to excellent command and a wipeout splitter.
The start of Tanaka's spring has been promising, as he has both looked and felt good through his first three bullpen sessions, as Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News reports. Watch closely, because the injury scare could turn Tanaka into something of a bargain.
No. 33: Garrett Richards, SP, Los Angeles Angels
Richards is busy recovering from a late-season knee tear that required surgery and prematurely ended a brilliant breakout campaign in August.
So far, so good, per the reports, like this one from Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times. But the expectation, despite Richards' own target, is for him to be ready in mid-to-late April rather than rush to make it for Opening Day.
With an assortment of occasionally nearly unhittable stuff, including the biggest fastball in baseball—at 96.4 mph on average—the 26-year-old Richards notched an ERA of 2.60, and a FIP to match at 2.61. Even if he misses a few turns to open the year, that just means you should be able to land him at a discount in drafts—and enjoy the reward once he's ready to rock.
No. 32: Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
After struggling badly upon his initial call-up while pitching out of the bullpen (6.1 IP, 13 H, 9 ER), Stroman came back up at the end of May and pitched exclusively as a starter, as he'd been developed in the minors.
From that point forward, the 23-year-old former first-round pick was on point, compiling a 3.18 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 over 124.1 frames. Oh, and those lovely numbers include a look-the-other-way blowup on Aug. 15 in which he gave up five earned runs while getting just two outs.
Now that Stroman has proved he can start in the majors—some thought the undersized righty might best fit in the bullpen due to his 5'9" frame—he merely needs to stay as consistent as he can over 30-plus turns.
No. 31: Tyson Ross, SP, San Diego Padres
Ross, who will turn 28 in the season's first month, built upon his strong second half in 2013 by becoming a legitimate SP 3-caliber arm with a huge 2014 in which he compiled a 2.81 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 195 strikeouts in 195.2 innings.
Just realize that he has shown a tendency to pitch much better at home (Petco, duh) than on the road, with a 1.88 ERA compared to 3.79 elsewhere. Still, with an elite 57.0 percent ground-ball rate (second-best in MLB) and a killer slider, Ross will roll in 2015.
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No. 30: Alex Wood, SP/RP, Atlanta Braves
The Braves jockeyed Wood, their second-round selection in 2012, between starting and relieving early on last year, but once they wised up and inserted him into the rotation for good in late June, he took off. The 24-year-old streaked to a 2.43 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 107 strikeouts in 111.1 innings across 17 starts.
Wood, whose deceptive, herky-jerky delivery evokes comparisons to Chris Sale's, will be hard-pressed to match those kind of numbers over a full slate in the five-man this year, but he's good enough to pitch close to his 3.25 FIP from 2014.
No. 29: Jose Quintana, SP, Chicago White Sox
Perhaps no good pitcher goes more unnoticed—both in real life and in fantasy—than Quintana. The 26-year-old southpaw has been super steady the past two years, following up a strong 2013 (3.51 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.4 K/9) with an even better 2014 (3.32 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.0 K/9), while throwing exactly one-third of an inning more last year (200.1) than the season prior. Even more promising? Quintana's FIP fell a full run, from 3.82 to 2.81.
The reason he's so overlooked, then, comes down to the most fickle of fantasy categories—wins—as Quintana has, once again, been incredibly consistent in getting nine wins each of the past two years. Here's figuring that with an improved offense and a David Robertson-aided bullpen on the South Side, Quintana will do better in that area in 2015, while keeping the others in check.
No. 28: Lance Lynn, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
Lynn has been a great source of wins and strikeouts for three years running, averaging 16 of the former and 186 of the latter since 2012.
While the 27-year-old's ERA improved a great deal in 2014, down to 2.74—a little more than a full run from his 2012-13 mark—Lynn's FIP actually was ever-so-slightly better in 2013 (3.28) than it was last year (3.35). That suggests he's more of a mid-3.00s guy, and because his control is average at best (3.3 BB/9 career), his WHIP isn't likely to fall below the 1.20-1.25 range without some BABIP luck. Regardless, this is a durable, in-his-prime SP 3.
No. 27: Jacob deGrom, SP, New York Mets
If you told fantasy folks at this time last year that a Mets pitcher would burst onto the scene and win NL Rookie of the Year, they might have believed you—but they would be sure you were talking about Noah Syndergaard, not deGrom. After all, it's Syndergaard who has been one of the Mets'—and baseball's—best pitching prospects for years now, whereas deGrom flew way below the radar as a fringy prospect.
A former college shortstop, deGrom's athleticism has allowed him to take to pitching rather quickly, which partly explains how he wound up dominating with a 2.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to go along with 144 whiffs in 140.1 frames.
Because of his age (27 in mid-June), injury history and unique background, there are reasons to doubt that deGrom can be that good again, especially over an entire season. But even with some regression, he'll get to pitch at Citi Field and in the strikeout-heavy NL East, making him worth selecting as your third starter, particularly if you favor upside over security.
No. 26: Chris Archer, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
Archer, 26, really came into his own over the course of last season, his first full one in the majors. The athletic, hard-throwing right-hander owned a 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.0 K/9 while racking up just shy of 200 frames (194.2).
About the only thing Archer doesn't do especially well is limit walks (3.3 BB/9), but his second-half rate (3.0 per nine) was a good bit better than his pre-break mark (3.6). In other words, the cerebral Archer has shown a knack for making adjustments, which could turn him into a genuine fantasy SP 3 in 2014.
No. 25: Zack Wheeler, SP, New York Mets
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 11 W, 3.54 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 187 K, 0 SV (185.1 IP)
Even if it might have seemed slightly underwhelming at times, Zack Wheeler's 2014 was the real deal. In fact, his 3.54 ERA was almost identical to his 3.55 FIP, which proves as much. Hiking his ground-ball rate from 43.2 percent to a top-notch 54.0 percent was a nice touch.
The 24-year-old also turned things up a notch in the second half with a 3.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 9.6 K/9, providing a glimpse of what he can do.
The next step in his development? Addressing his walk rate (3.8 BB/9), which is essentially the last thing that stands between Wheeler and definitive SP 2 status, especially now that he's ready for 200-plus innings after tossing 185.1 last year.
No. 24: Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 10 W, 2.87 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 149 K, 0 SV (166.1 IP)
Alex Cobb doesn't stand out to most fantasy owners, perhaps because unlike so many others in this ranking, the right-hander doesn't possess much more than average velocity. What the 27-year-old has shown, though, is that he knows how to pitch very effectively.
Cobb's money-maker is his tumbling changeup, which he throws often (north of 30 percent of the time), and he combines that offering with a two-seamer that helps him get grounders at a well above-average rate of 56.5 percent for his career.
And it's not like Cobb doesn't get strikeouts; he has averaged 8.2 per nine the past two seasons. Now he just needs to stay healthy and reach 30 starts—and approach 200 innings—for the first time in his career. That would make him an ideal SP 3.
No. 23: Jake Arrieta, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 10 W, 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 167 K, 0 SV (156.2 IP)
Exactly zero people could have predicted that Jake Arrieta, long a post-hype sleeper as an Oriole, would put everything together and break out to this extreme last year, his first full one with the Cubs.
For cryin' out loud, the righty even missed the first month of 2014 with shoulder inflammation, causing him to be forgotten and/or overlooked even more at the outset of last season. And then, armed with his mid-90s fastball and a wicked slider/cutter (depending on whom you ask), he went out and did this over 25 dazzling starts: 2.53 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 9.6 K/9.
The rubs here are that Arrieta hasn't been the pillar of health, his 156.2 innings last year were by far his most in MLB and he turns 29 in early March. There's a little leap-of-faith element to investing in him as your SP 2, but if you can score him as your third starter because others in your league are in doubt, go for it.
No. 22: Hisashi Iwakuma, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 15 W, 3.52 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 154 K, 0 SV (179.0 IP)
Affectionately dubbed Kuma, this right-hander has been fan(tasy)-freaking-tastic since Seattle installed him in the rotation in July of 2012, after he spent his first half-season in MLB as a long man.
A torn tendon in his right middle finger cost him the first month of 2014, but the underrated Japanese hurler showed no ill effects in terms of control or command. In fact, he had a microscopic 1.1 BB/9 mark last year, which helped him post a 1.05 WHIP.
There are some reasons to be a bit cautious here, including Iwakuma's advancing age (34 in April) and the fact that he fell apart down the stretch, surrendering 28 runs and 49 baserunners in his final 32 frames (seven starts). But if you miss out on one of the next handful or so, Kuma can be a viable SP 2.
No. 21: Gerrit Cole, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 11 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 138 K, 0 SV (138.0 IP)
Gerrit Cole has become something of a divisive pitcher, as there are owners who see him as merely a good but far from great option at the back of a fantasy rotation; and then there are those who just know he's going to become SP 1 material.
This ranking is a bit of a hedge between the two, but if we had to pick, we'll go with the latter. Cole, after all, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2011 and has some of the nastiest stuff, including an upper-90s fastball, plus slider and improving changeup. Oh, and the 24-year-old has shown flashes of dominance through his first two MLB campaigns, which is why his career FIP is a shiny 3.09.
To take the next step, Cole needs two things. The first is improved command, which can be challenging because he has such a deep repertoire. The second? Improved health, as he made two separate DL trips last season related to his right shoulder for fatigue and then soreness.
But when the breakout happens, it's going to happen big. All aboard the Cole train (again)!
No. 20: Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 14 W, 3.08 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 183 K, 0 SV (219.0 IP)
Out of the many sophomore starters who carried a lot of hope and hype into 2014—including Gerrit Cole, Michael Wacha, Danny Salazar and others—the one who wound up having the best first season as a full-time big leaguer was Sonny Gray.
The 25-year-old did just about everything for an owner who believed and invested in him, and and the fact that the 5'11", 195-pound righty made it through 33 starts and logged 219 frames is a great sign going forward.
Gray also proved that he can get plenty of ground balls (55.9 percent) despite his smallish stature, and he actually had better numbers on the road (2.51 ERA, 1.10 WHIP) than at pitcher-friendly O.co Coliseum (3.60 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). That's not a bad thing, because there's room to do better at home.
The only thing to look out for is Gray's strikeout (7.5 K/9) and walk rates (3.0 BB/9), both of which are more on the level of an SP 3 than an SP 2. But if he's going to throw 200-plus innings, the whiffs will be there.
No. 19: Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 0 W, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP, 0 K, 0 SV (0.0 IP)
After going under the knife in late October of 2013, Matt Harvey has had plenty of time to fully recover from Tommy John surgery—about 17 months by the time the regular season starts—which means he's expected to be ready to go on Opening Day.
As the soon-to-be 26-year-old said himself following his first batting-practice session on Friday, Feb. 27, he "couldn't feel better," according to Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com. Harvey hurled 40 pitches against David Wright, Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy and Michael Cuddyer.
There's still work to do, and Harvey likely won't be back to his full self—that is, the pitcher who posted a dynamite 2.27 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 26 starts in '13 prior to tearing his elbow ligament—right out of the shoot, especially since the New York Mets will handle him conservatively. And it's also likely Harvey won't throw more than, say, 150-160 innings this season, just to be on the safe side.
But if he's close to what he was a couple of years ago, Harvey can be an SP 1 at SP 2 or even SP 3 prices. Just know what you're getting into given the circumstances.
No. 18: James Shields, SP, San Diego Padres
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 14 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 180 K, 0 SV (227.0 IP)
As if James Shields wasn't attractive enough as an option to pitch near the top of your fantasy rotation, he went and signed with the San Diego Padres, giving him not only the Petco Park factor but also the advantage of pitching in the NL for the first time in his nine-year career.
The 33-year-old righty blew past the 200-inning threshold for the eighth straight time in 2014, and in that stretch, he has thrown at least 215 innings seven times. That's valuable because it provides more strikeouts, as well as more weight to his ratios, including a 3.29 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on average the past three years.
Shields is not a fantasy ace, but he could look a lot like one if his stats get a boost from his new digs and league. And even if they don't, this is still a durable-as-all-get-out SP 2.
No. 17: Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 7 W, 2.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 202 K, 0 SV (219.2 IP)
Jeff Samardzija had his best year yet in 2014. He threw great with the Chicago Cubs in the first half (2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.6 K/9) and then carried it over after being traded to Oakland (3.14 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 8.0 K/9), proving he can hack it in the tougher AL.
If the 30-year-old free-agent-to-be can continue to make gains in his ever-improving control and command—especially the microscopic 1.0 BB/9 and 8.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio he pulled with the A's—then he just might be able to top his best year in 2015.
And, hey, the much-improved Chicago White Sox might give him a chance to actually, you know, win a game every now and then after that was such a problem with the Cubs.
No. 16: Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 14 W, 2.89 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 186 K, 0 SV (221.0 IP)
If there were any doubts about Teheran following his impressive, yet still somehow underappreciated 2013 rookie season, he threw 'em out the window last year.
The 24-year-old was super consistent, compiling 25 quality starts, a number only five pitchers surpassed in 2014. The righty stayed away from blow-ups, too, allowing as many (or more runs) as innings in a start only three times. Those are the marks of an SP 2.
And while you might be a tad worried about Teheran's win column now that the Atlanta Braves have traded three of their four best hitters (Justin Upton, Jason Heyward and Evan Gattis), realize that Teheran goes deep into games and is backed up by the game's best closer. Besides, he only had 3.2 runs of support per game last year—fourth-lowest in MLB—and still notched 14 double-yoos.
No. 15: Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 20 W, 2.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 179 K, 0 SV (227.0 IP)
As typically outstanding as Adam Wainwright was in 2014, when he set career bests in ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.03), he's not necessarily the lock his numbers and reputation otherwise indicate.
Wainwright, you'll recall, underwent offseason surgery to clean up his elbow, which had been bothering him over the second half and in the postseason. His stuff was diminished, as evidenced by noticeable upticks in ERA (3.24) and WHIP (1.21). Most disturbingly, his strikeout rate fell all the way to (gasp) 6.5 per nine over his final 13 turns.
On top of that, Wainwright is now 33, so he's getting up there, and he also just came down with an abdominal strain that will set him back until mid-March this spring. It's too early to tell whether the tall right-hander will be good to go by Opening Day, but it's something to monitor closely.
Owners who love Waino and see him as a no-doubt SP 1 aren't wrong based on his track record, but they also may be fooling themselves if they think there aren't semi-significant concerns here. Enough to bump this longtime fantasy ace to second-tier status.
No. 14: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 9 W, 2.46 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 198 K, 0 SV (204.2 IP)
The only thing that can limit Cole Hamels' fantasy value, it seems, is the Philadelphia Phillies. While the 31-year-old has been the center of trade speculation all offseason, he remains with the rebuilding club, which is the primary reason for his meager 17 wins combined across 2013 (eight) and 2014 (nine).
Even after missing the first three weeks of last year due to left biceps tendinitis, Hamels hit the 200-inning mark for the fifth straight seasons and sixth time in the past seven. He also posted a career-best 2.46 ERA and struck out at least 194 batters for the fifth consecutive year.
The only things that prevent Hamels from being a true fantasy SP 1 are the possibility that he might not crack double digits in wins (again) and the fact that there are so darn many incredible starters at the moment.
No. 13: Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 16 W, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 220 K, 0 SV (219.2 IP)
Jon Lester's 2014 was a career year, and one that he's not all that likely to repeat given just how great it was.
Don't let that deter you from targeting him, though, especially now that the longtime Boston Red Sox lefty has signed on with the Chicago Cubs (for $155 million). The 31-year-old gets to shift gears to the NL, where he gets to face opposing pitchers and weaker No. 8 batters instead of designated hitters and the deeper lineups he's used to from the AL.
The driving force behind Lester's season was his newfound ability to limit free passes. Having never posted a walks-per-nine rate below 2.8, his was 2.0. That's a significant improvement, albeit one that also could be a little aberrational. Then again, Lester's first-strike percentage of 61.4 also was a career best, indicating he made a concerted effort to throw strike one and get ahead.
Grabbing Lester with the above numbers in mind would be unwise, but he's as sturdy a second starter as you can ask for, and the move to the NL will help limit any comedown.
No. 12: Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 17 W, 2.71 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 207 K, 0 SV (202.1 IP)
It's hard to imagine after Zack Greinke's first year as a Los Angeles Dodger in 2013 went so well, but his second season was even better.
Oh, sure, the 31-year-old's ERA was a smidge higher in 2014 (2.63 in '13), as was his WHIP (1.11 in '13), but Greinke won two more games (15 in '13) and struck out almost 60 more batters (148 in '13). He has settled into L.A. quite nicely.
Greinke recently received an injection in his elbow, but it's for lubricating the joint, and he's had the procedure done in prior seasons, too, according to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Nothing to get worked up about.
Don't doubt drafting Greinke—just enjoy his top-of-the-scale production in all four starting pitcher categories.
No. 11: Johnny Cueto, SP, Cincinnati Reds
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 20 W, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 242 K, 0 SV (243.2 IP)
If you feel Johnny Cueto belongs higher on this list, that's certainly understandable. The man was the second-best fantasy starting pitcher a year ago, according to ESPN's player rater.
The thing is, the 29-year-old Cueto does come with a few questions. Like, can overcome his injury history to make 34 incredible starts again? This is a guy who, in seven seasons, has yet to put together back-to-back campaigns in which he throws even 175 innings.
Or like, how much will his BABIP and left on-base percentage drop off? Last year, Cueto had the lowest BABIP in baseball at .238, and his 82.5 LOB percentage was the second-highest. If even one of those regresses to the mean, there will be a performance dip. If both do? There will be a drop.
There's still plenty to love about Cueto, but there's enough to be cautious about in making him your top starter, too. Last year, he came at an extreme bargain price—this year, he won't.
No. 10: Yu Darvish, SP, Texas Rangers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 10 W, 3.06 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 182 K, 0 SV (144.1 IP)
Yu Darvish's 2014 was good, it just wasn't elite like his 2013 was, in large part due to injury. His year started with a bothersome neck injury in March that bled into the season, which then ended prematurely because of shoulder inflammation.
The 28-year-old also allowed a .334 BABIP that not only was the eighth-highest in the sport but also way too steep for a pitcher like Darvish, who has shown he can induce weak contact with his ridiculous repertoire.
Just because 2014 didn't end all that well, let's not forget how dominant Darvish has been in his first three MLB campaigns.
As Jerry Cranick of ESPN.com writes: "Since joining the Texas rotation in 2012, Darvish leads the majors with 11.22 strikeouts per nine innings and ranks second to the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw in lowest opponents' batting average against (.216) and fewest hits per nine innings (7.16)."
Considering Darvish is feeling good again at the start of spring training, it's time once again to invest in him as an SP 1. And because of how things ended a year ago, you'll get him a round or three cheaper in 2015.
No. 9: Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Washington Nationals
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 14 W, 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 182 K, 0 SV (199.2 IP)
Now here's a guy who had a career year in 2014, and who shows no signs of not being able to top that again in 2015. At least, potentially.
Already one of the most consistent year-in-year-out starters around, the 28-year-old Jordan Zimmermann had the best ERA (2.66) and WHIP (1.07) of six-year career. But what really bumped to the next level—and what excites fantasy owners even more—was his strikeout spike.
After three years of sitting between 6.8 and 7.0 K/9, Zimmermann's mark jumped all the way to 8.2. That could be an aberration, as Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs points out, but it's also possible that Zimmermann's whiff rate finally started to align with his stuff, headed by a mid-90s fastball with movement that he places precisely.
Zimmermann is a free agent after the season, so for owners who buy into the walk-year theory that the imminent payday acts as extra incentive for increased player performance, that's another consideration. Draft Zimmermann as your SP 1 for the elite ratios, and if the new strikeout rate is for real, all the better.
No. 8: Madison Bumgarner, SP, San Francisco Giants
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 18 W, 2.98 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 219 K, 0 SV (217.1 IP)
In case you haven't noticed by now, we've reached the point in these rankings where the last half-dozen or so pitchers are so freaking good that it becomes hard to put them in sequence. So we have to look for things to separate them, and in many cases, those aspects have a negative bent, because there are way too many positive things to say about each of 'em.
In Madison Bumgarner's case, the concern, of course, is well known: The man threw a career-high 217.1 innings last season and then tacked on another—count 'em—52.2 in October (a postseason record) as he almost single-handedly pushed the San Francisco Giants to yet another championship.
All told, that's 270 frames, folks. And not many arms recover all that well from that kind of toll. (Just ask Adam Wainwright, who threw 276.2 frames in 2013 and then wound up tailing off in the second half last year and needing a procedure to clean up his elbow, as already covered.)
But if anyone is going to come through OK on the other end, it's Bumgarner, the well-built (6'5", 235) southpaw who is just 25 years old and who has thrown 200-plus innings each of the past four years.
Of course, his wild postseason success has turned Bumgarner from a perennially underrated fantasy star into one who no longer will be draftable a round or two later than he should have been. You'll now have to pay full price.
No. 7: Chris Sale, SP, Chicago White Sox
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 12 W, 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 208 K, 0 SV (174.0 IP)
Hey, imagine if Chris Sale could stay fully healthy for an entire season, eh? The lefty, who turns 26 in late March, has battled through some sort of injury or other (usually related to his arm or shoulder) the past few years, which is the only reason he's not in the top five here.
And now, coming off his best season so far—wouldn't ya know it?—Sale suffered something called an avulsion fracture of his right foot in a home accident, according to Scott Merkin of MLB.com. The injury is likely to keep him out of action until the very end of spring training and could threaten his ability to be ready to go when the regular season opens.
There is a positive spin to put on all this, though. For one, this isn't an arm-related ailment. Two, for all his injury issues, Sale has proved to be a rather remarkable healer, never yet missing more than a start or three here and there, and that appears to be the case this time, too.
And three, if anything, this could present an opportunity to buy Sale at a discounted price on draft day, as other owners might think twice about plucking a still-recovering starter for the top of their rotation. You shouldn't, however, as long as Sale seems to be on track.
No. 6: Corey Kluber, SP, Cleveland Indians
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 18 W, 2.44 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 269 K, 0 SV (235.2 IP)
It's not often a pitcher will go from relative unknown to Cy Young Award winner in the span of 34 dazzling starts, but that's exactly what Corey Kluber did in 2014.
If you still happen to have some doubts about whether Kluber is for real given his background—he does turn 29 in April, so this isn't exactly a youngster coming into his own—well, don't. In fact, his underlying numbers were so good that his 2.35 FIP actually was slightly better than his 2.44 ERA. Seriously.
If there's anything to nitpick about what Kluber can do better, it would be giving up weaker contact, or at least, getting his BABIP down. It was .316 in 2014 and it's .326 for his career.
Look, Kluber almost certainly can't be that great again, if for no flimsy reason other than the law of averages. But even with a small step back, he's still a sure-fire fantasy No. 1.
No. 5: David Price, SP, Detroit Tigers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 15 W, 3.26 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 271 K, 0 SV (248.1 IP)
What's crazy about David Price's numbers from last year is that it took him a while to get going.
Remember, his ERA was still north of 4.00 into June, but over his final 22 turns, the 29-year-old lefty sported a 2.74 mark with 1.04 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 164 innings. In the end, he found his rhythm and merely wound up leading the majors with 271 whiffs, becoming only the ninth pitcher to cross the 270 threshold since 2000—and just the second, along with Yu Darvish (277 in 2013) since the start of 2005. Wow.
With a better start in 2015, it's possible Price could improve his ERA and WHIP in 2015, and backed by the formidable Detroit Tigers offense for a full season, he also might top the 15 wins he managed last year. Although you should expect the strikeout total to drop closer to 200. Not that that's bad or anything.
Nor is the fact that Price is heading into his walk year, which might give him extra incentive in advance of what's going to be a very, very big payday.
No. 4: Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 14 W, 3.14 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 242 K, 0 SV (215.0 IP)
To hear folks talk about Stephen Strasburg these days, it's almost as if they're somehow disappointed. Yes, he came with as much hype as any player to break into the bigs after being one of the very best pitching prospects ever. But it's not as if he hasn't been excellent fantasy starter when on the mound, especially now that his Tommy John surgery is way in the past.
At 26, Strasburg is primed to put on a show after breaking through the 200-inning barrier for the first time in his five-year career. He showed marked gains in his control (career-low 1.8 BB/9), and all that's left is to get his home run rate down, even a little. To wit, his xFIP, which adjusts for a league-average homer rate, was 2.56, suggesting that with a little improvement (or luck) there, Strasburg's ERA could come down a chunk.
And really, how disappointed can you be with a guy whose 242 strikeouts last year led the Senior Circuit?
No. 3: Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 18 W, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 252 K, 0 SV (220.1 IP)
Last year, Max Scherzer showed no real drop-off from his Cy Young-winning 2013. Yes, the ERA ticked up (2.90 in '13) and the WHIP did even more (0.97), but Scherzer actually whiffed more batters in 2014, and his FIPs were nearly identical (2.74 compared to 2.85 last year).
And now, the 30-year-old is headed back to the NL, and the NL East, in particular, a division that houses some of the worst offenses in baseball: The Phillies, Braves, Mets and Marlins all were in the bottom half of the sport in runs scored while also ranking in the top half in hitter strikeouts.
In other words, Scherzer could be even more dominant in 2015. And oh, he also has added a cutter to his already ridiculously deep, varied and hitter-embarrassing repertoire, per Tyler Kepner of The New York Times. So there's that.
Based on all of the above, Scherzer looks like the clear choice as the No. 3 starting pitcher off the board.
No. 2: Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 15 W, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 248 K, 0 SV (236 IP)
Felix Hernandez had had his best-ever season in 2014, which is really saying something for a pitcher who has been perhaps the sport's best over the past decade.
Year in and year out, the right-hander, who will be 29 on April 8, is as good as it gets in terms of ratios and strikeouts. And because he is so durable and consistent, having thrown at least 190 innings in each of his nine full seasons while also averaging (get this) 232.3 over the past six, his stats carry even more heft.
And now that the Seattle Mariners have bolstered their offense with Nelson Cruz as well as useful bats like Seth Smith, Justin Ruggiano and Rickie Weeks, look for Hernandez to get even more run support than the 4.3 runs per game he received a year ago.
Do we really need to convince you further to take a man who justifiably has lived up to his nickname of King?
No. 1: Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
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2014 Fantasy Stats: 21 W, 1.77 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 239 K, 0 SV (198.1 IP)
It's hard to determine what is scarier: Knowing that Clayton Kershaw put up the above stats despite missing six weeks early on with a back injury, or thinking about how absurd his final line would have looked had he not lost that chunk of 2014 at all.
The left-hander, who now has led MLB in ERA for four straight seasons—something that had never been done previously—took home both the NL Cy Young (his third) and MVP award (his first). And while it might be debatable whether a pitcher should be able to earn the latter, Kershaw inarguably was a worthy winner after establishing new bests in ERA, WHIP and K/9 while matching his 21 wins from 2011.
Oh, and it's always fun to point out that he'll be turning just 27 in mid-March.
The only question surrounding Kershaw is at what point do you take the plunge on the top arm at a time when pitching is so, so deep and hitters are at a premium? He's a first-rounder, and in fact Kershaw is going as a consensus top-five pick, according to his average draft position via Fantasy Pros. Even in this dire offensive environment, it's hard to argue with that.
Statistics are accurate through the 2014 season and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
Need more fantasy baseball help? Have a comment about the rankings? Come pepper me with your questions on Twitter today at 2 p.m. ET: @JayCat11
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