Ugly Start to NFL Offseason Not as Big of a Problem as Media Make Fans Believe

The NFL doesn't have the problem you probably think it has. 

Each and every February, it seems like we've had this discussion. Just moments after the final whistle of the Super Bowl, something happens and the American public collectively clutches its pearls awaiting another offseason full of arrests that are sure to create another black eye for commissioner Roger Goodell. 

Only...that's not what actually happens. 

In fact, it never happens. 

As I have said before concerning issues that deal with overblown NFL storylines, this is an optics problem (which is significant and must be dealt with) but not a real problem, and it's certainly not the problem that the media are leading everyone to worry about. 

The ugliness of the NFL offseason isn't in the NFL itself, but it's in the terrible way it's been overblown. 

Not All Conduct Issues Are Created Equal

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Let's run down the issues that have given the NFL a black eye recently. 

Is Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel's trip to rehab the same as former NFL defensive tackle Warren Sapp being arrested for soliciting a prostitute? No, in fact, the former can be seen as a positive step toward healing in a young man's life where the second isn't even really an NFL issue anymore because Sapp hasn't played since 2007. 

Yet, we lump these in with the mix. 

Let's keep going.

Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon is done...potentially for good...because of alcohol. Now, I'm not going to go into the entire rant where I say it's ironic that the NFL is so concerned about what Gordon puts in is own body while it's so lax about what it injects into players, mostly because I've already done that. 

Gordon recently wrote complementary thoughts as well, on Medium:

"

On Jan. 2 of this year, just days after our season ended earlier than we all had hoped — and yes, my actions during the prior offseason definitely contributed to our failure to make the playoffs; it killed me seeing our guys fight so hard when I wasn’t out there with them — I boarded a private flight to Las Vegas with several teammates. During the flight, I had two beers and two drinks. It was the first time I had consumed so much as a drop of alcohol since July 4, 2014, the day of the DWI.

"

You see, Gordon has passed a ridiculous amount of drug tests since being in the league, but after a DWI where he blew .01 over the limit and a marijuana test where he was so close to the NFL's embarrassingly low (and since risen) standard for THC in the blood, he's out of free passes, so a few beers on a flight is too much. 

That's on Gordon. It's not an excuse, but it is context.

How is this a black eye for the league? How it is evidence of a bigger problem? Put Gordon in almost any other situation on the planet and he's just a knucklehead who likes to party. He's submitted to the NFL's over-the-top substance abuse policies and failed to meet those standards, but we're supposed to just let his name flow with all the others and cry about a league out of control.

Browns general manager Ray Farmer (well, OK, maybe the Browns are having a problem) might be suspended for texting down to the sidelines—gasp! The Patriots may have deflated some footballs, or maybe they didn't because more and more evidence pours out that makes the whole "gate" situation seem more like a large mole hill than a Himalaya. 

As for actual issues that could truly give us pause, there are only few, and they're actually the ones the media pass over as further evidence rather than leading with them as major crimes. 

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

We've had a few DUIs this offseason, including Chicago Bears cornerback Tim Jennings, who reportedly was going nearly 100 miles per hour when he was pulled over. Indianapolis Colts linebacker D'Qwell Jackson was arrested for allegedly assaulting a pizza delivery person. Green Bay Packers defensive tackle Letroy Guion was arrested for possession of marijuana while also having a gun and a large amount of cash on him. 

There's a handful more, but listing each one isn't the point. 

No, the point is this: These are separate incidents with young men who are having problems (well, and one older guy who needs to cut back his cellphone usage). These are serious and shouldn't be swept under the rug, but they also shouldn't be turned into something they're not. 

Every offseason, the media and a large section of fans conflate matters like this into an NFL-wide problem that simply doesn't exist. 

NFL Conduct, in Context, Should Actually Be Commended

Thanks to the good folks over at USA Today, we have a database of NFL player arrests going back to 2000. Feel free to go data mining in there all you want. In fact, I encourage it. To guide you on your way, though, let's look at some of the facts pulled out by some other quants out there. 

Benjamin Morris of FiveThirtyEight.com put forth a tremendous article on the rate of NFL arrests compared to the general public. He even sorted the data based on the type of offense. Here's what he came up with: 

FiveThirtyEight.com

See how NFL players, per capita, are far less prone to criminal acts than if they were in the general population? I, personally, am in the group of men ages 25 to 29, which means that statistically I am far more prone to just about any felony you can think of than one of the men in the NFL at my age. 

The interesting thing with that comparison is: If it happens to me, no one cares. 

That's the crux of the matter with crimes in the NFL. We care (we being both the media and NFL fans) because it affects us. It affects the teams we love. It affects the game we love. Heck, it might even affect our fantasy teams! 

The horror!

But you guys don't have me on your sportswriter dynasty league (yet), so if I check myself into rehab, it doesn't concern you. In the same way, you're not on my roster for the daily fantasy sports fan league, so it doesn't cost me any money if you end the weekend in the back of a squad car. 

If it happens to me, it's my issue. 

If it happens to you, it's your issue. 

Somehow, though, if it happens to either of us on an NFL roster, it becomes Goodell's issue, and the league is suddenly out of control. It's madness, and we shouldn't fall for the same stupid narrative year after year. It's the very definition of insanity, like watching an old Western movie and being surprised that yes, again, the dashing young cowboy saved the damsel in distress. 

It's the same, every time. 

Well, actually no...it's actually getting better. 

Here's what the Neil Irwin of The New York Times' "The Upshot" found when he looked at the trend of NFL player arrests year after year:

The New York Times

Even though he compiled this in September, I went back to the USA Today numbers and added up every 2014 arrest after Irwin wrote his column. Guess what? He was right. 2014, otherwise known by some as the year Goodell lost control of the league, contained the lowest number of arrests we have data for. 

I also took a look at arrests just in January and February of the last five years. While, yes, February is just starting, 2015 is still the second lowest in terms of NFL arrests in the past half-decade. Not that I'm saying players should go out and get pulled over, but there's wiggle room in the stats. 

Furthermore, here's what Irwin wrote about that magnificent chart, emphasis is his:

"

Arrests peaked in the mid-2000s, and are way down this year. The peak year for arrests of N.F.L. players was 2006, followed closely by 2007 and 2008. (These are calendar years, not N.F.L. seasons). One important caveat: The apparent increase could be a result of increased coverage of professional athletes’ legal troubles by Internet media. In other words, we don’t know for sure whether more N.F.L. players were being arrested in those years, or whether TMZ and other outlets were better positioned to find out about it.

"

The increase of arrests reported is almost entirely media created. There was no Twitter, TMZ or video phones for the first part of that chart and certainly not before. There were always bad apples in the NFL (I would contend far more), but the increased media presence around the league has shined a spotlight on the matter, making things seem worse than they really are. 

This has been a rough start of the 2015 offseason, but only because none of us have anything better to talk about. Soon comes the NFL Scouting Combine, then free agency, the draft and eventually camps. If the trend holds true, the arrest numbers should continue to go down (as they have), and we'll stop talking about it as we go on to bigger and better things. 

Quickly, here's the last thing to remember when it comes to consuming reports of player bad acts. In 2015, nine players have been arrested. Yet, in the four years before, multiple players who had been arrested saw their charges dropped, pleaded to lesser misdemeanors or were acquitted.

That means they were not guilty.

If the standard for guilt in this country is innocence until proven guilty, we can't raise a fuss every time a player gets arrested and then fail to recognize when his innocence is declared some time later.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

If that trend holds true as well, that could drop the actual arrest total for the beginning of this offseason to six or seven, which is still a bigger number than zero, but it is not nine, nor is either number the kind of epidemic the media is painting it as. 

This is a problem for the NFL, and it is ugly, but it's not an ugly problem caused by its players. By and large, the bad apples this offseason are so far outweighed by the tremendous good done by the NFL community that it is truly laughable.

For every idiot who can't call a taxi after a night of drinking, a dozen players spent that same night volunteering or raising money for their personal foundation. They work hard and very few play hard with the regularity that the public pretends they do, but those aren't the stories we write and those aren't the stories you click on. 

Maybe that's the ugliest part of all. 

Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter.