2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook, Pre-Divisional

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2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook, Pre-Divisional
Associated Press

The deadline for underclassmen to enter the NFL draft is one week away—January 15—and already the 2015 class is shaping up to be a good one. With each passing day, more information and more analysis comes in. That's what the Scouting Notebook is here for, to update you on all things NFL draft each Friday.

This week's article is jam-packed with news on seniors and underclassmen, a look at one hit and one miss from my evaluations, a two-round mock draft and 10 players moving up and down on my draft board this month.

Ready? Let's go.

The Scout's Report

— TCU linebacker Paul Dawson is shooting up my board the more I watch him, and in talking with one area scout responsible for Texas, I heard that Dawson really dominated to end the year. The same scout said they view him as a Round 2 player with room to rise.

— Former Missouri wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham comes with big off-field issues. I asked around this week and one very experienced general manager told me they view him as "undraftable" based on the legwork already done on his background.

— Looking for a Combine star ready to blow up? Missouri defensive end Shane Ray already ranks as a top-six player on my board, but one Missouri coach I talked to this week said Ray could legitimately run in the low 4.4s in the 40-yard dash in Indianapolis.

— LSU players texted me earlier this week to say that junior defensive end Danielle Hunter would enter the draft, but there has yet to be official word from Hunter or LSU on that decision. He has one more week to decide officially.

— Notre Dame left tackle Ronnie Stanley may be the first tackle drafted if he enters the 2015 class, but in talking to the redshirt sophomore Thursday morning he remains very much undecided on if he'll head back to school or take on the NFL. 

— CFL wide receiver Duron Carter is continuing his workout schedule with NFL teams. He recently spent time with the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, and he will end the week with the Minnesota Vikings. I'm told by a source close to Carter that the San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns remain on his list of teams to visit.

— NFL.com reported this week that Louisville safety Gerod Holliman is "lazy and doesn't practice hard." Here's what worries me about this—reports about practice almost always come from coaches, as scouts don't see enough practices to have a definitive opinion. Holliman left college as a redshirt sophomore after just one season with the current staff, so you have to wonder if there is an axe to grind.

— I asked a Louisville teammate about Holliman being lazy or not working hard. His reply, "It's sort of his personality. He's a quiet guy that doesn't say a whole lot. I wouldn't categorize him as lazy. He's just casual at times. But I also wouldn't say he gives it everything he has in practice. Pryor and Smith practiced hard last year, but that's because of (former head coach) Strong."


Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. DE Dante Fowler, Florida

Dante Fowler's last game as a Florida Gator was a great one. Against East Carolina, Fowler dominated with 3.5 sacks and a game-changing performance that included two sacks in the fourth quarter. My Twitter mentions blew up with Fowler's performance, and even friends in the scouting industry were texting to remark on Fowler's game. He ended the regular season as a top-20 pick, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the top 15 come late April. 

4. OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame

Notre Dame against LSU was a matchup every NFL scout was watching, and most eyes were fixed on the two left tackles in the game. Redshirt sophomore Ronnie Stanley held his own when compared to senior La'el Collins and did an excellent job taking care of the speedy edge-rushers from LSU—especially junior Danielle Hunter, a player considered to be a potential top-50 player in this draft. 

3. OT La'el Collins, LSU

The other side of the LSU vs. Notre Dame matchup was La'el Collins, and he looked very good. Collins is a man in the run game and is able to eat up defenders with his first contact. I know some scouts I've talked to think he's too slow-footed to play left tackle, but I disagree and see him as a Day 1 starter there. 

2. ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA

Last year, about this time, I began talking about an undersized, over-productive linebacker who had dominated college football but wasn't being praised as a draft prospect due to metrics. I warned against undervaluing this kid, because things like instincts, heart and tackling aren't measured in height or 40 times. That player was Chris Borland, and he rocked out in his rookie season. Eric Kendricks is a similar type of prospect.

Kendricks (6'0", 230 lbs) isn't big, but he's agile, instinctive and packs a punch as a tackler. And there's a good chance he'll be under-valued like Borland was and end up a steal from Day 2.

1. CB JaCorey Shepherd, Kansas

Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris, Jr. and I go back to his days as an underrated star at Kansas, and that means he can badger me into checking out players he likes in college football. JaCorey Shepherd is that guy in this year's class.

Shepherd, who played wide receiver early in his career, has fluid hips and the feet to turn and run with wide receivers. He's also big enough and physical enough to re-direct players at the line of scrimmage and hang with them through traffic in the early parts of a route. Shepherd doesn't look like a Round 1 or 2 player, but he could slide into Round 3 if he performs well at the Senior Bowl.


1. QB Cody Fajardo, Nevada

The 2015 quarterback class is lacking depth, so I spent the week reviewing some of the options outside of Mariota, Winston, Bryce Petty and Brett Hundley. Is there a sleeper out there?


Up first, Nevada's Cody Fajardo. The hype on him isn't justified, and I struggle to see him having the passing ability to be an NFL quarterback. Accuracy is No. 1 on my list of important traits for an NFL prospect, and Fajardo struggles too often as a pure passer to succeed in the pros. 

2. QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State

Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion has production and the size NFL teams want, but those numbers are created by the system and not by Mannion's talents. His arm strength is lacking for his stature (6'5", 220 lbs) and his passes are too aimed for the type of coverage windows he'll see in the NFL.

Mannion may be a fine backup quarterback in the NFL, but I don't see starter qualities here. 

3. QB Bo Wallace, Ole Miss

If accuracy is the most important trait for a quarterback prospect, then Ole Miss' Bo Wallace will struggle to find a home in the NFL.

Wallace reminds me of Tom Savage in some ways—and especially in that he could see a rise up draft boards based on his size and arm strength, but also in that his hype is greater than his traits or production from those traits.

Wallace's draft position can't be predicted right now, but his talent grade is as a late-rounder. 

4. QB Nick Marshall, Auburn

Nick Marshall, quarterback? Not so much.

Marshall is a great athlete, but as a passer he leaves a lot to be desired. If he's interested in a move to running back or safety, that's a more likely option for his NFL future. But as an actual quarterback—one asked to consistently make accurate throws and smart decisions—I don't see him making it in the NFL. 

5. QB Dak Prescott, Miss. State

Dak Prescott is a junior at Mississippi State and could head back to college for another year, but I'm told he's torn on that decision and may jump to the NFL draft. If so, it's a mistake.

Prescott is not finished as a passer, and while he's athletic and powerful as a runner, he needs refinement as a pure passer and lacks the accuracy and touch to convince me he's a viable NFL starter at quarterback. Prescott is able to make exciting throws at times, but the fine details needed to make it in the pros aren't there.

Scouting Report: WR Duron Carter, Free Agent

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report. This week, a look at former CFL wide receiver Duron Carter. He's free to sign with NFL teams and has recently visited the Colts, Chiefs, Vikings and will visit the 49ers, Panthers and Browns soon.

Claus Andersen/Getty Images


Wide Receiver Duron Carter, Free Agent (6'5", 209 lbs)


  • Powerful, explosive move off the line of scrimmage.
  • Has a long, lean frame with excellent wingspan and hand size.
  • Adjusts well to the ball in the air and shows good body control on the move.
  • Has produced well against professional athletes in CFL last two seasons.
  • Can play both in the slot or on the boundary with success.
  • Dominant over the middle and isn't afraid to make catches in traffic.
  • Solid route-runner with an ankle-breaking inside move on slants and posts.
  • Very tough, plays with a chip on his shoulder.


  • Very limited college football experience.
  • Played at Ohio State and Coffeyville Community College. Enrolled at Alabama and FAU but never played there.
  • Went undrafted in 2013 NFL draft due to concerns about maturity and work ethic.
  • Has a reputation for being high-maintenance.
  • Struggled in CFL to beat a jam and work through physical cornerbacks.
  • Tried to make the SportsCenter catch too often and passed up sure-handed grabs.

Pro Player Comparison: Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers

Scouting Dictionary

"Dark Part of the Field"

Thursday evening I was talking to an old coaching friend of mine about a wide receiver and he dropped this nugget into my lap. "The dark part of the field." It took me a second to realize what he meant and I didn't want to interrupt. 

If you're ever talking to a coach or scout, this means the middle of the field. It's called the "dark part of the field," my friend told me, because back in the day the middle of the field wasn't lit as well due to the way lights are situated on the edges of the playing field. You could also update that to say that it's the part of the field with the most defenders on it, so it'll be a more highly congested area for offensive players to stay away from.

The Big Board

No matter how often I publish a mock draft, someone (or a group of someones) is always asking for a new one. So this week, I'm doing a full two-round mock for you here. Enjoy.

Updated Two-Round Mock Draft
RD1 Pick RD2 Pick
1. TB QB Jameis Winston, FSU 1. TEN CB Jalen Collins, LSU
2. TEN DL Leonard Williams, USC 2. TB OT Ereck Flowers, Miami
3. JAX DE Randy Gregory, Nebraska 3. OAK RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
4. OAK OT La'el Collins, LSU 4. JAX ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA
5. WSH SS Landon Collins, Alabama 5. NYJ CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
6. NYJ QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon 6. WSH ILB Denzel Perryman, Miami
7. CHI DE Shane Ray, Missouri 7. CHI OT Ty Sambrailo, Colorado St.
8. ATL OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky 8. NYG OLB Paul Dawson, TCU
9. NYG DE Dante Fowler, Florida 9. STL QB Brett Hundley, UCLA
10. STL OT Brandon Scherff, Iowa 10. ATL RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
11. MIN WR Amari Cooper, Alabama 11. CLV DE Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington
12. CLV WR Kevin White, West Virginia 12. NO OLB Nate Orchard, Utah
13. NO LB Shaq Thompson, Washington 13. MIN RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
14. MIA DT Malcom Brown, Texas 14. SF CB Ronald Darby, FSU
15. SF WR DeVante Parker, Louisville 15. MIA WR Nelson Agholor, USC
16. HOU OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame 16. SD CB P.J. Williams, FSU
17. SD OT Andrus Peat, Stanford 17. KC OT Jake Fisher, Oregon
18. KC WR Devin Funchess, Michigan 18. BUF OG A.J. Cann, South Carolina
19. CLV DT Danny Shelton, Washington 19. HOU CB Quinten Rollins, Miami (OH)
20. PHI CB Marcus Peters, Washington 20. PHI WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
21. CIN DE Vic Beasley, Clemson 21. CIN DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State
22. PIT CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St. 22. DET C Cam Erving, FSU
23. DET DT Eddie Goldman, FSU 23. ARZ DE Mario Edwards, FSU
24. ARZ TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota 24. PIT OLB Trey Flowers, Arkansas
25. CAR OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M 25. CAR WR Rashad Greene, FSU
26. BAL WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona St. 26. BAL RB Duke Johnson, Miami
27. IND FS Gerod Holliman, Louisville 27. IND OLB Lorenzo Mauldin, Louisville
28. DAL DE Eli Harold, Virginia 28. DAL OT Tyrus Thompson, Oklahoma
29. GB ILB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State 29. GB DT Carl Davis, Iowa
30. DEN OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt 30. DEN FS Derron Smith, Fresno St.
31. NE DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma 31. NE WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
32. SEA WR Sammie Coates, Auburn 32. SEA RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska

Matt Miller

Parting Shots

10. The 2015 Senior Bowl is shaping up to be a good one. The Senior Bowl committee announced more accepted invitations this week. Here is the complete list of accepted invitations thus far:

2015 Senior Bowl Rosters
DC Senquez Golson, Ole Miss ILB Denzel Perryman, Miami RB Jeremy Langford, Michigan St.
DC Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon ILB Stephone Anthony, Clemson RB Cameron Artis-Payne, Auburn
DC Quandre Diggs, Texas LS Andrew East, Vanderbilt RB David Cobb, Minnesota
DC Doran Grant, Ohio State LS Joe Cardona, Navy RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
DC Ladarius Gunter, Miami C Hroniss Grasu, Oregon RB David Johnson, Northern Iowa
DC Quinten Rollins, Miami (Ohio) C Andy Gallik, Boston College S Clayton Geathers, UCF
DC D'Joun Smith, FAU C Reese Dismukes, Auburn S Kurtis Drummond, Michigan St.
DC Steven Nelson, Oregon St. G Josue Matias, FSU S Ibraheim Campbell, Northwestern
DC Eric Rowe, Utah G Laken Tomlinson, Duke S Jaquiski Tartt, Samford
DC Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest G Robert Myers, Tenn. State S Cody Prewitt, Ole Miss
DC Imoan Claiborne, NW St. LA G Tre' Jackson, FSU S Adrian Amos, Penn State
DC Kevin White, TCU OLB Lynden Trail, Norfolk State S Anthony Harris, Virginia
DC JaCorey Shepherd, Kansas OLB Zach Hodges, Harvard S Derron Smith, Fresno State
DE Bud Dupree, Kentucky OLB Lorenzo Mauldin, Louisville S Damarious Randall, Arizona St.
DE Henry Anderson, Stanford OLB Martrell Spaight, Arkansas TE Clive Walford, Miami
DE Markus Golden, Missouri OLB Mike Null, Penn State TE Nick Boyle, Delaware
DE Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington OLB Jordan Hicks, Texas TE Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
DE Nate Orchard, Utah OLB Paul Dawson, TCU TE E.J. Bibbs, Iowa State
DE Preston Smith, Miss. State T Rob Havenstein, Wisconsin TE Jeff Heuerman, Ohio State
DE Owa Odighizuwa, UCLA T Daryl Williams, Oklahoma TE Nick O'Leary, FSU
DE Geneo Grissom, Oklahoma T Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M WR Devin Smith, Ohio State
DE Trey Flowers, Arkansas T T.J. Clemmings, Pitt WR Tony Lippett, Michigan St.
DE Corey Crawford, Clemson T Jake Fisher, Oregon WR Jamison Crowder, Duke
DT Carl Davis, Iowa T Ali Marpet, Hobart WR Rashad Greene, FSU
DT Danny Shelton, Washington T Austin Shepherd, Alabama WR Devante Davis, UNLV
DT Grady Jarrett, Clemson T Ty Sambrailo, Colorado St. WR Justin Hardy, ECU
DT Louis Trinca-Pasat, Iowa T La'el Collins, LSU WR Donatella Luckett, Harding
DT Joey Mbu, Houston T Jamil Douglas, Arizona St. WR Vince Mayle, Washington St.
DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State T Cameron Erving, FSU WR Phillip Dorsett, Miami
DT Kaleb Eulls, Miss. State T Donovan Smith, Penn State WR Antwan Goodley, Baylor
DT Gabe Wright, Auburn PK Tom Obarski, Concordia WR Kevin White, West Virginia
FB Jalston Fowler, Alabama PK Justin Manton, La.-Monroe WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
FB Tyler Varga, Yale PT Kyle Loomis, Portland State WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
FB Connor Neighbors, LSU QB Bryce Petty, Baylor WR Dres Anderson, Utah
ILB Hayes Pullard, USC QB Blake Sims, Alabama WR Tyler Lockett, Kansas St.
ILB Ramik Wilson, Georgia QB Shane Carden, ECU WR Dezmin Lewis, Central Arkansas
ILB Eric Kendricks, UCLA QB Garrett Grayson, Colorado St. WR Josh Harper, Fresno State


9. As the season winds down, it's time for underclassmen to make their draft decisions before the Jan. 15 deadline. Here's a list of declared underclassmen as of Jan. 9:

2015 NFL Draft: Declared Underclassmen
QB Brett Hundley, UCLA WR Nigel King, Kansas D/LB Randy Gregory, Nebraska
QB Jameis Winston, FSU WR Shaq Roland, South Carolina D/LB Eli Harold, Virginia
RB Jay Ajayi, Boise State WR Jaelen Strong, Arizona State D/LB Danielle Hunter, LSU
RB Tevin Coleman, indiana TE Jesse James, Penn State D/LB Noah Spence, Ohio State
RB Mike Davis, South Carolina TE Tyler Kroft, Rutgers D/LB Max Valles, Virginia
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin TE Jean Sifrin, UMass D/LB Shane Ray, Missouri
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota LB Kwon Alexander, LSU
RB Dee Hart, Colorado St. T Ereck Flowers, Miami LB Benardrick McKinney, Miss. State
RB Duke Johnson, Miami T D.J. Humphries, Florida LB Shaq Thompson, Washington
RB Matt Jones, Florida T Andrus Peat, Stanford CB Alex Carter, Stanford
RB Josh Robinson, Miss. State T Jeremiah Poutasi, Utah CB Jalen Collins, LSU
RB Trey Williams, Texas A&M T Donovan Smith, Penn State CB Ronald Darby, FSU
RB T.J. Yeldon, Alabama G Tyler Moore, Florida CB Lorenzo Doss, Tulane
WR Nelson Agholor, USC DE Mario Edwards, FSU CB Marcus Peters, Washington
WR Sammie Coates, Auburn DT Malcom Brown, Texas CB Trae Waynes, Michigan St.
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama DT Xavier Cooper, Washington St. CB P.J. Williams, FSU
WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland DT Christian Covington, Rice S Landon Collins, Alabama
WR LeMar Durant, Simon Fraser DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches, S. Miss S Durell Eskridge, Syracuse
WR Devin Funchess, Michigan DT Jordan Phillips, Oklahoma S Gerod Holliman, Louisville
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma DT Leonard Williams, USC S James Sample, Louisville
WR Deontay Greenberry, Houston D/LB Deion Barnes, Penn State P Brad Pinion, Clemson
WR Chris Harper, California D/LB Dante Fowler, Florida

Matt Miller

8. In the draft media, very few people are standing in line to point out when you hit on a player, but they'll come out of the woods to remind you that you missed on a guy. With that in mind, and because I like to admit when I'm wrong about a player, I'll be doing a "Hit and Miss" each week until the draft.

Up first, a miss.

"(He) has a shot at being a top-20 pick because of his NFL ready speed and quickness. In a league that is placing less value on size and more on speed, (blank) is going to be sought after by many teams. The lack of size will likely be an issue for him, and it could keep him off the field in a starting role for the first year. Linebackers that play as physical as (blank) but don’t have the size are an injury risk. But if he can stay on the field, his level of play will be a factor if he can get the protection up front from a big, blocker-eating defensive line. He's a late second-round prospect in this class." — San Francisco 49ers linebacker NaVorro Bowman. 

7. And now for a player I hit on. A "hit" can be defined a few ways—a player ranked/drafted higher than the NFL viewed him is how I categorize a hit, though.

"A smooth, fluid athlete with ideal wingspan and quickness, (blank) does a good job coming off the ball and has the quickness to initially stun or advance past an offensive lineman. What he lacks in refinement (technique, angles, hand use) he makes up for in raw tools. If (blank) can be developed, he could become a starter on the edge. A mid-round-two grade is reasonable." — former Buffalo Bills' defensive end Aaron Maybin. Maybe was drafted No. 11 overall and quickly proved to be a bust in Buffalo.

6. The 2014 rookie wide receiver class may go down as the best ever, and it's certainly the best I've ever evaluated. The players were not only great prospects, but they became high-level producers early in their first seasons. Here is the final tally on how they stacked up this year.

2014 Rookie Wide Receivers
Player Pick Stats
Odell Beckham, NY Giants 12 91 catches, 1305 yards, 12 TD
Jarvis Landry, Miami 63 84 catches, 758 yards, 5 TD
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina 28 73 catches, 1008 yards, 9 TD
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay 7 68 catches, 1051 yards, 12 TD
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia 42 67 catches, 872 yards, 8 TD
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo 4 65 catches, 982 yards, 6 TD
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans 20 53 catches, 550 yards, 3 TD
Allen Hurns, Jacksonville UDFA 51 catches, 677 yards, 6 TD
John Brown, Arizona 91 48 catches, 696 yards, 5 TD
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville 61 48 catches, 548 yards, 2 TD
Davante Adams, Green Bay 53 38 catches, 446 yards, 3 TD
Marqise Lee, Jacksonville 39 37 catches, 422 yards, 1 TD
Taylor Gabriel, Cleveland UDFA 36 catches, 621 yards, 1 TD
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis 90 32 catches, 444 yards, 3 TD
Paul Richardson, Seattle 45 29 catches, 271 yards, 3 TD


5. One of my big draft rules, or evaluation rules, is that when looking at a college player's game film it's important to note not only what the player does, but what he can do that maybe the college coach isn't asking of him.

A great example of this last year was Clemson wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Watching their games, Watkins was used heavily in short passes and screen routes. Did the coaches not trust him to run routes or catch downfield passes? No, but to win football games they needed to quickly—and accurately—get the ball into their playmaker's hands. So screen passes and smoke routes were called.

This will come up often in 2015 as guys like Marcus Mariota and Bryce Petty get the "system quarterback" label thrown on them. But remember, it's important to know what the player can do, not always what he does do.

4. A good question came in from Twitter this week, basically asking how much I value what scouts tell me versus what I see myself.

When I started in this business I knew no one in the NFL, and so I learned to evaluate players without checking my scores with scouts. That's something I still try to do, but as the job grows I do rely on NFL scouts to be a kind of checks-and-balances for notes and rankings. For example, my new top 300 big board, I'll send that out to a handful of scouts and get feedback.

What one scout tells me won't change my ranking on a player, but it may (and often does) send me back to the tape to see if I missed something or put too much emphasis on another thing.

3. Here's my yearly (or monthly) reminder that the NFL draft is a process. A tweet, a note, a thought from August or September is likely to change by January and may change again by April. That's how this business works. As you get new information (game film, talks with coaches, more exposure to the player) you should be updating your thoughts. What happens, though, is a throwaway thought on Twitter becomes a lightning rod for folks, or (my favorite) people bring up a note about a player weakness and take it to mean you don't like that particular prospect.

I've always been open and upfront about my misses on players, but my one request is to at least bring up where I had a player ranked pre-draft and not something said in late-August four years ago.

2. Kyle Shanahan walked out of the Cleveland Browns organization after one year on the job, per Alex Marvez of Fox Sports. That's not a good sign for the health of your franchise when the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach both quit on the same day.

Everyone will loop this back to Johnny Manziel, and that may be a connection, but in my opinion this is more about ownership and the general manager trying to dictate what the coaches do instead of letting them put the best product on the field.

Now Shanahan is free to take an offensive coordinator job if he's not hired for one of the many head coaching openings he's interviewed for. 

1. Over the last 10 days I spent a ton of time evaluating quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston, going back over their last four games to complete my notes on them and get a good picture of their last two seasons. The result? Winston jumping Mariota in my rankings.

I try to never be reactionary (see: Bridgewater, Teddy) and rely on patience and study before moving a player up or down on my board. But Winston's readiness, vision, arm strength, mobility and pocket presence make him the better pro prospect. That doesn't mean I don't like Mariota—he's No. 2 overall right now—only that Winston is a better prospect right now.

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