2014 MLB Overachievers Headed for the Most Regression in 2015
Baseball is a tough game to predict, but there are a handful of advanced statistics these days that serve as a useful tool for forecasting player regression.
It's by no means an exact science, and there are always exceptions to the rule, but the following statistics are good predictors of regression (definitions via FanGraphs):
- FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching): Measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league-average results on balls in play and league-average timing. Looks at results a pitcher can control directly: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches and home runs. A pitcher with an ERA significantly lower than their FIP is likely headed for regression.
- BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play): Measures how often a ball in play goes for a hit. Typically around 30 percent of all balls in play fall for hits, but there are several variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players, such as defense, luck and talent level. Can indicate good luck for a hitter or bad luck for a pitcher.
- HR/FB (Home Run-to-Fly Ball Rate): Is the ratio of how many home runs are hit against a pitcher for every fly ball they allow. League average is around 10 percent and true talent for almost every pitcher is about 8-12 percent. Can indicate good luck for a hitter or bad luck for a pitcher.
These three statistics—along with track record and batter/pitcher tendency stats like strikeout and walk rate—will be focused on in this article, in an effort to identify 10 players who thrived in 2014 but could be headed for significant regression in 2015.
Obviously, this is not meant as an attack on any of these players, but instead an objective look at which players could be headed for the biggest drop-off in the upcoming season.
RP Pat Neshek, Houston Astros
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One of the biggest surprises of the 2014 season, reliever Pat Neshek turned a non-roster invite to spring training into an All-Star appearance. He posted a 1.87 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 in 71 appearances for the St. Louis Cardinals.
That earned him a two-year, $12.5 million deal from the Houston Astros this offseason, as he will be paired with another newcomer in Luke Gregerson to bridge the gap to incumbent closer Chad Qualls.
The 34-year-old entered last season with a 3.07 ERA (4.18 FIP) in 226 career appearances, so another elite-level performance in the eighth-inning role seems unlikely simply based on his age and track record.
A closer look at his peripherals from last season, in particular his unsustainably low .233 BABIP, points to a pitcher headed for a decent level of regression in 2015. He should still be a solid bullpen arm, but another All-Star performance probably isn't in the cards.
CF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
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Don't expect the phenomenal defense of Lorenzo Cain to regress any, as he is capable of changing a game without ever stepping into the batter's box, but his offensive numbers could take a hit after a breakout 2014 campaign.
Cain saw a career-high 471 at-bats this past season and responded by hitting .301/.339/.412 with 38 extra-base hits and 28 stolen bases.
The decision to move him into the No. 3 spot in the lineup sparked the offense down the stretch, and he came up huge in the postseason on his way to ALCS MVP honors. That may well be his peak offensively, though.
Plus speed means that Cain can be expected to have a BABIP that's a bit higher than the league average, but the .380 mark he posted last season is not sustainable. It was the fourth-highest total among players with at least 400 plate appearances.
Throw in a very low 4.8 percent walk rate, and it's hard to see Cain hitting anywhere near .300 again in 2015. He should again be a 2-3 WAR player thanks to his speed and defense, but duplicating his 4.9 WAR from a year ago will be tricky.
SP Chris Young, Free Agent
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After making just nine minor league starts and not seeing the majors in 2013, Chris Young came out of nowhere to be a surprise contributor to the Seattle Mariners' starting rotation last season.
The 35-year-old went 12-9 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 108 strikeouts in 165 innings of work, his highest inning total since he was an All-Star with the San Diego Padres back in 2007.
It was a nice story, and Young was a deserving recipient of AL Comeback Player of the Year honors, but all signs point to the veteran playing with house money for the bulk of last season.
His 5.02 FIP was the worst mark among all qualified starters, and his .238 BABIP was tied for the lowest mark, making him perhaps the biggest regression candidate in all of baseball heading into the 2015 season.
That could explain why the veteran is still looking for work this winter, while the rest of the midlevel pitching market has essentially been tapped out.
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DH Chris Carter, Houston Astros
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Always an intimidating presence in the batter's box at 6'4" and 250 pounds, Chris Carter finally delivered on his tremendous power potential last season, ranking second in the American League with 37 home runs.
However, outside of the long balls, he was still the same old Carter, hitting .227/.308/.491 overall on the season. He actually saw his walk rate drop from 12.0 percent to 9.8 percent, while his strikeout rate was still over 30 percent at 31.8 with 182 whiffs in 507 at-bats, both alarming numbers for a power hitter.
A 21.9 percent HR/FB rate is actually in line with his career 20.7 percent mark, so he may not experience much regression in that area. But without his huge two-month stretch in July and August, his 2014 campaign would not have looked nearly as good.
Carter hit .278/.340/.629 with 20 home runs and 48 RBI in 194 at-bats over those two months, compared to just .194/.289/.406 with 17 home runs and 40 RBI in 313 at-bats the remainder of the season.
Another 30-homer season is not out of the question, but his declining walk rate and inflated statistics thanks to a hot two months could mean a sizable step backward in his overall production.
SP Alfredo Simon, Detroit Tigers
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Filling in for the injured Mat Latos to begin the year, Alfredo Simon was a revelation during the first half of the 2014 season.
The big right-hander went 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to earn a spot on the NL All-Star team, but his smoke-and-mirrors performance caught up to him in the second half.
He was just 3-7 with a 4.52 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 14 starts after the break, and his 4.33 FIP on the year is a good indication that the real Simon is probably closer to what we saw in the second half.
That didn't stop the Detroit Tigers from giving up a pair of solid prospects (Eugenio Suarez and Jonathon Crawford) to acquire him during the winter meetings, and the move to the American League could also be a push in the wrong direction.
Big picture, Simon is probably best suited in the long relief role he filled for the Cincinnati Reds in 2013. Over 63 appearances that season, he posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 87.2 innings of work, giving the pen a boost with his ability to go multiple innings.
He may take a big step backward in 2015, but "Big Pasta" still has one of the best nicknames in all of baseball.
3B Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates
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Josh Harrison went from passable utility player to All-Star and NL batting title contender seemingly out of nowhere in 2014.
The 27-year-old entered the 2014 season with just 532 career at-bats and a .250/.282/.367 line in parts of three big league seasons. He was by no means a lock to make the Opening Day roster with Clint Barmes also around as a backup infielder.
After seeing just 23 at-bats in the first month of the season, he began seeing regular playing time in right field in May, and his season took off from there.
All told, he finished the year with a .315/.347/.490 line that included 38 doubles, 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases, on his way to a 5.3 WAR and a ninth-place finish in NL MVP voting.
He'll open the 2015 season as the team's everyday third baseman, and his versatility, contact skills and unique mix of power and speed should again make him a positive contributor for the Pirates.
However, his .353 BABIP last year was up 100 points from the previous season and is likely to drop to somewhere around the league average of .300. That, coupled with his low 4.0 percent walk rate, likely means he's more of a .270-280 hitter than a batting title contender in 2015.
RP Francisco Rodriguez, Free Agent
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By all accounts, Francisco Rodriguez was a terrific bargain for the Milwaukee Brewers last season after signing a one-year, $3.25 million deal in the offseason.
He wrapped up the season with 44 saves, the second-highest total in franchise history, while posting a 3.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 en route to his first All-Star appearance since 2009.
The 33-year-old was virtually untouchable to open the season, allowing just eight hits and zero earned runs in 19 innings of work over his first 19 appearances. He converted all 15 save chances during that span.
That phenomenal start helped disguise what was a fairly mediocre season the rest of the way, as he converted 29-of-34 save chances with a 4.22 ERA over his final 50 appearances of the season.
A 4.50 FIP and a .216 BABIP both point to some fairly significant regression in 2015. Like the aforementioned Chris Young, that could be part of the reason he is still sitting in free agency here in the middle of January.
LF J.D. Martinez, Detroit Tigers
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With Andy Dirks out indefinitely following back surgery, the Detroit Tigers took a flier on J.D. Martinez in late March of last season, two days after he was released by the Houston Astros.
It wound up being one of the best decisions of the year, as Martinez went on to hit .315/.358/.553 with 30 doubles and 23 home runs in 441 at-bats in Detroit.
A completely overhauled swing certainly made a difference for the 27-year-old, who paired with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez to form arguably the most dangerous 3-4-5 in the league last year.
However, luck played a fairly significant role as well.
His .389 BABIP was third among players with 400-plus plate appearances, and his 19.5 percent HR/FB rate was nearly double the league average and a 10 percent jump over the previous season.
A .270/.320/.450 season with 20 or so home runs is still a reasonable expectation over a full season of at-bats, but he's not the budding superstar that some may think after his breakout season.
SP Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants
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Jake Peavy was just 1-9 with a 4.72 ERA in 20 starts with the Boston Red Sox when he was shipped to the San Francisco Giants at the trade deadline, but he wound up being perhaps the best acquisition of the entire trade season.
In 12 starts post-trade, Peavy went 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, giving the Giants the second front-line arm they desperately needed alongside ace Madison Bumgarner.
That was enough for the team to give him a two-year, $24 million extension this offseason, but it would be wise for Giants fans to temper their expectations for his first full season with the team.
An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Peavy is probably best positioned to succeed in AT&T Park than anywhere else in the league, but the 2.4 percent HR/FB rate he posted during his 12 starts with the Giants will undoubtedly push back toward the league average of 10 percent.
I actually wrote an article shortly after Peavy re-signed on why AT&T Park is the perfect place for the 33-year-old to succeed as his career winds down, and I fully expect him to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm. Still, there is no way he matches his 2014 success over an entire season.
1B Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
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Chicago White Sox fans aren't going to like this one bit, but there's a good chance Jose Abreu takes a step back in his sophomore season after one of the most productive rookie seasons of all time.
Signed to a six-year, $68 million deal after defecting from Cuba, there were legitimate questions as to how well the slugger's offensive game would translate to the MLB level. He quickly answered them with 10 home runs and 32 RBI in the first month of the year.
All told, he went on to hit .317/.383/.581 with 35 doubles, 36 home runs and 107 RBI to run away with AL Rookie of the Year honors and finish fourth in AL MVP voting.
Saying the 27-year-old is going to take a step back in 2015 doesn't mean he can't still be a star-caliber player for a vastly improved White Sox team. Rather, it speaks to just how good his rookie season was.
An MLB-high 26.9 percent HR/FB rate will likely drop a bit, though he still figures to be well above the league average of 10 percent. A 20 percent rate and another 30-homer season is within reach.
Instead, the number to look at is his .356 BABIP, a very high mark for a player with below-average speed like Abreu. That, coupled with an 8.2 percent walk rate, likely means a sizable drop in both batting average and on-base percentage in 2015.
Regression toward the norm would leave Abreu as something like a .275/.350/.520 hitter with 30 home runs and 100 RBI potential in an improved lineup.
Still All-Star-caliber production, but perhaps not MVP-caliber production.
All stats, both standard and advanced (FIP, BABIP, HR/FB, WAR), courtesy of FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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