2015 NFL Free Agency: Predicting Market's Biggest Payday
Buyer, be…ready to open your check book.
Last week, we gave you a position-by-position preview of the unrestricted NFL free-agent class of 2015, with salary projections for the featured performers.
Now we go back and review who we feel will be the big earners this offseason, regardless of position. The eight players we have selected are listed by the current total of their projected contract. In some cases, we have changed some of our projections after some extended research.
Keep in mind that the overall free-agent list will change in time as teams announce cuts. This list deals with players whose contracts expire at the end of the 2014 fiscal year.
In terms of the salary cap, that still hasn’t been set for 2015. Joel Corry of CBS Sports reported recently that “NFL teams were informed at an NFL meeting on Dec. 9 that the 2015 salary cap is preliminarily projected to be between $138.6 million and $141.8 million."
What does that mean? There will be lots of money to go around. We will give you our best guesses using signings in recent years as a very rough gauge. Rest assured these high-ticket performers are going to get paid, be it by their current team or some other club. We have been somewhat conservative with our contract numbers considering there are numerous other factors that will come into play in terms of money available to each club.
All free-agent lists and team cap estimations are courtesy of Spotrac (subscription required).
OLB Justin Houston, Kansas City Chiefs
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It proved to be a banner year for the four-year veteran who has now been named to three consecutive Pro Bowls. Now the Kansas City Chiefs have to make sure, one way or another, that outside linebacker Justin Houston doesn’t get away.
Once again, Houston proved to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks, leading the NFL with 22 sacks in 2014. He finished fourth on his team with 68 tackles, knocked down five passes and forced four fumbles.
Houston is very likely to get the franchise tag from the Chiefs but take a look at Spotrac’s forecast (by Michael Ginnitti and Scott Allen) for what the star’s new contract could look like. You will notice that both Ginnitti and Allen not only take into account other outside linebackers but defensive ends such as J.J. Watt and Mario Williams.
In any case, Houston has played 59 regular-season games and totaled 48.5 sacks in the process, totaling more sacks in each season he has played.
Projected 2015 Salary: 6 years, $75.6 million
DT Ndamukong Suh, Detroit Lions
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Last Sunday, the Dallas Cowboys defeated the Detroit Lions, 24-20, in the NFC Wild Card playoffs.
But was that the last Sunday in a Lions uniform for defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh?
Time will tell, but the star defender’s emotional postgame press conference following the loss had some wondering.
He is arguably the best defensive tackle in the league these days and at the same time is one of the game’s most controversial players. This season, he anchored the league’s second-ranked defense in terms of fewest yards allowed. The Lions also gave up the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season.
Named to the Pro Bowl four times in five seasons, Suh led Detroit with 8.5 sacks in 2014. He creates havoc up the middle and obviously also knows how to get to the quarterback.
With the exception of his two-game suspension in 2011, the five-year pro has never missed a game nor not started one. He’s totaled 36 sacks in 78 regular-season contests and will likely become the highest-paid defensive tackle in the league or perhaps ever (at least for now).
Projected 2015 Salary: 6 years, $72 million
WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
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Watching Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant improve over the years has been impressive, to say the least. And the first-round pick in 2010 is about to be rewarded for his effort.
Bryant’s 16 touchdown receptions led the league in 2014 and is one of the higher totals in league history for a player in a season. He grabbed 88 passes for 1,320 yards this season, his third consecutive year with at least 80 catches.
In his first two NFL seasons, the former Oklahoma State standout played in a total of 27 games, totaling 108 catches for 1,489 yards and 15 scores. In his last three years, he has not missed a game. Bryant has amassed an impressive 273 catches for 3,935 yards and 41 touchdowns. He’s reached the end zone at least one dozen times in each of those seasons.
It’s apparent that Bryant isn't going anywhere. What about 2014 NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray, who is also eligible for free agency this year?
Projected 2015 Salary: 6 years, $70 million
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CB Darrelle Revis, New England Patriots
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In his first season with his newest club, New England Patriots defender Darrelle Revis was arguably the league’s best cornerback in 2014 and was named to the Pro Bowl for the sixth time. The eight-year veteran recorded 47 stops, had a pair of interceptions and totaled twice as many passes defensed (14) than any other player on the team.
Revis has now reached the Pro Bowl with three different teams (New York Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Patriots) and his career resume continues to impress. He’s totaled 23 interceptions during his career and helped change the New England defense, which has re-emerged as a very physical unit.
Will the Patriots or another team sign him to a long-term deal? We know from past history that whoever is in the mix, it certainly won’t be an easy process.
Projected 2015 Salary: 6 years, $62.4 million
WR Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
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As we all know, Denver Broncos wide receiver Demaryius Thomas was on the end of one of the more exciting plays in recent postseason history. His 80-yard touchdown jaunt on a pass from quarterback Tim Tebow in overtime against the Pittsburgh Steelers gave Denver a 29-23 victory in the 2011 AFC Wild Card Round.
Since then, Thomas has been paired with quarterback Peyton Manning and the numbers have been imposing. The 2010 first-round pick from Georgia Tech has totaled 297 catches the last three seasons combined, amassing an impressive 4,483 yards while scoring 35 touchdowns. He enters Sunday’s playoff games vs. the Indianapolis Colts having totaled 100-plus receiving yards in three straight games and 10 of his last 13 contests.
Thomas ranked second in the NFL with 111 receptions and 1,619 receiving yards in 2014; both career highs. Could he be a candidate for the franchise tag?
Projected 2015 Salary: 5 years, $59 million
WR Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles
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Are the Philadelphia Eagles getting ready to break the bank to keep their leading receiver in 2014?
After sitting out all of 2013 due to injury, Jeremy Maclin put up big numbers during the team’s 10-6 campaign. The six-year wideout led the Birds in catches (85), receiving yards (1,318) and touchdown grabs (10).
Of course, the real news out of Philadelphia these days is the increased power head coach Chip Kelly has been given when it comes to personnel and other matters. Jeff McClane of Philly.com broke down what really happened in the City of Brotherly Love the last few days and what it will mean for the Eagles in 2015.
How this affects Maclin’s future with the team is anyone’s guess. But it certainly makes for an interesting sidebar.
Projected 2015 Salary: 5 years, $52 million
DE Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants
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DE Jason Pierre-Paul, New York Giants
There was a time that the New York Giants’ Jason Pierre-Paul looked like the most feared pass-rushing defensive end in the NFL. During the team’s Super Bowl XLVI title season of 2011, he totaled 86 tackles and a team-high 16.5 sacks.
But injuries and other issues would eventually take their toll on the athletic defender. He was limited to 21 starts and totaled a combined 8.5 sacks the next two seasons.
However, Pierre-Paul bounced back in a disappointing year for Tom Coughlin’s club. The two-time Pro Bowler totaled a very quiet 12.5 sacks for the 2014 Giants, who ranked 29th in total defense this season. But it was also the first time in five NFL seasons that Pierre-Paul started all 16 games.
The talented player turns 26 in February. There’s obviously a lot left in the tank here. It’s just a matter of how long and how much the Giants or any other team is willing to invest.
Projected 2015 Salary: 5 years, $43.5 million
OLB Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins
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OLB Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins
When healthy, Washington Redskins outside linebacker Brian Orakpo has been a pass-rushing force.
But when has become the biggest question.
The team’s designated franchise player in 2014 played in only seven games this season and finished with 24 tackles and 0.5 sacks. It was in 2012 that Orakpo missed the final 14 games, a year the Redskins went on to win the NFC East.
In 2013, the six-year veteran rebounded from that injury-shortened campaign to play and start 15 games, totaling 10 sacks while being named to his third Pro Bowl.
When healthy and playing at least 15 games, Orakpo has totaled at least 8.5 sacks in four seasons. But both 2012 and 2014 proved to be nightmares. Are his days in D.C. over? Stay tuned.
Projected 2015 Salary: 5 years, $41 million
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