2015 NFL Free Agents: A Bargain Hunter's Guide to the Market
The 2015 offseason is already underway for 20 NFL teams. Soon the entire league will have its sights set on improving its roster for next season, which for many teams will include hunting for bargains among the upcoming class of free agents.
In a league where most players now hit the open market just four years into their careers, there are more valuable free agents than ever available to sign with new teams.
Smart free-agent signings can go a long way in filling holes and making upgrades on a roster, and while some teams will spend quickly to make big-ticket signings, others will take a more patient approach and look for cheaper, yet still valuable veterans, in the second wave of free agency.
What constitutes a bargain could be different from one franchise to another. One can’t be certain how highly any player will be valued around the league, and there are always players signed to low-cost contracts who vastly exceed expectations with their production.
That said, the following 10 players are good bets to be available for signing without breaking the bank, even though all of them have the skills to be significantly productive for new teams.
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens
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While contract values have risen annually at most NFL positions in recent years, they have steadily declined for running backs, making that position a haven of potential bargains.
That looks to be especially true for 2015. With numerous big-name running backs including DeMarco Murray and C.J. Spiller set to hit the market, there will be other starting-caliber veterans who come cheaply.
The best bargain among them might be Justin Forsett.
Forsett’s 2014 season has been by far the best of his career. He has rushed for 1,266 yards, the fifth most among all NFL running backs, and eight touchdowns while he has also caught 44 passes for 263 yards.
Although he played a key role in the Baltimore Ravens’ run to the playoffs, it’s doubtful Forsett will be valued as a top-tier running back. A 29-year-old with no spectacular traits, Forsett is unlikely to garner an average salary of more than $3.5 million per year.
Having shown he can be a productive feature back this season, Forsett would be a solid choice for any team looking to make a quick fix at running back without making a major investment.
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints
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Given the previously discussed modern reality of the running back position, there will be numerous bargains to be had on this year’s market. Another back who looks as though he could be a good value is Mark Ingram.
A 2011 first-round pick, Ingram really started to show why in 2014, as he ran for 964 yards and nine touchdowns on 226 carries for the New Orleans Saints.
Still just 25 years old, the Heisman Trophy winner from Alabama showed his ability to do damage both inside and outside as he had the best season thus far of his NFL career.
Even so, Ingram will probably only get between $3 million to $3.5 million per year in his next contract. He has missed 14 games due to injuries in his first four professional seasons and does not offer much value in the passing game.
Ingram’s unlikely to ever be one of the best running backs in the league, but he showed this year that he can be an effective rusher and carry the load if he can stay healthy. A team that banks on that could end up with a very solid addition at a healthy price.
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
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A Division III product from Mount Union, Cecil Shorts has proved to be a great find for the Jacksonville Jaguars. In four years with the franchise, the 2011 fourth-round pick has caught 176 passes for 2,343 yards and 12 touchdowns.
That doesn’t mean, however, that the Jaguars will be pulling out their checkbook to bring Shorts back long term.
Having drafted three receivers in the past two years, while they also found a 2014 revelation in undrafted rookie Allen Hurns, Jacksonville might be ready to move on from Shorts. Jaguars general manager David Caldwell said this week that he had to talk to coaches about whether to bring Shorts back, according to Hays Carlyon of the Florida Times-Union.
Shorts’ production has fallen in each of the past two years, and he caught just 53 passes for 557 yards and one touchdown in 2014. He has missed time with injuries in each of his four NFL seasons and will be overshadowed in a free-agent class of receivers that could include Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Jeremy Maclin, Randall Cobb and Torrey Smith.
The competition makes it likely that Shorts will be pushed into the second or third tier of free-agent receivers, where he is likely to only make an average salary of around $4 million to $5 million per year. That should make him a serious consideration from any team in need of a No. 2 or 3 wideout.
Virgil Green, TE, Denver Broncos
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A role player for the Denver Broncos, Virgil Green won’t be a big-ticket free-agent signing this offseason, but he very well could be a breakout player for a team that decides to make an investment in him.
Nicknamed the Hulk, according to Troy E. Renck of The Denver Post, Green has emerged as a key run-blocker for the Broncos offense and was graded by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) as the fourth-best run-blocking tight end in the NFL this season.
Coming out of Nevada in the 2011 draft, however, Green was more heralded for his athleticism and receiving skill than he was for his blocking. With a 4.64-second 40-yard dash and 42.5-inch vertical jump, according to NFL.com, Green was one of the top performers among tight ends at the 2011 NFL Scouting Combine.
Green has only caught 23 passes for 206 yards in four years with the Broncos, but that’s as much due to lack of opportunity—on an offense loaded with pass-catching weapons—as any lack of skill on his part.
Unlikely to get a big offer from the Broncos, who already have a bevy of big veteran contracts on their roster, Green could end up being signed for around $2 million per year and well outperform his contract value.
A.Q. Shipley, C/G, Indianapolis Colts
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When he has actually had opportunities to play this season, A.Q. Shipley has been arguably the Indianapolis Colts’ best interior offensive lineman. But seeing as the Colts have insisted upon starting a number of other linemen ahead of him this season, in all but five of their games, he will likely come cheaply as a restricted free agent.
It took Shipley until 2012 to make a regular-season roster, despite being selected in the 2009 draft, but he has started games in each of his three seasons (two with the Baltimore Ravens, one with the Indianapolis Colts) and has not played badly.
With experience playing both center and guard, Shipley projects as an ideal swing backup for an interior offensive line, but he could also be a bargain starting option for a team in need of a center or left guard but not looking to put big money into the position this offseason.
Likely to be available for $2.5 million to $3 million per year, Shipley could prove to be a valuable acquisition for a team in the second wave of free agency.
Correction: This slide previously stated that Shipley has been in the NFL for only three years. He has only played three NFL seasons, but first entered the league as a selection in the 2009 draft.
Corey Peters, DT, Atlanta Falcons
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A rotational player on the Atlanta Falcons defensive line this year, Corey Peters is good enough to start for an NFL defense but will likely be available at a much cheaper price than some of the top defensive tackles, such as Ndamukong Suh and Terrance Knighton, who could be hitting the market.
In his fifth year with the Falcons, Peters’ playing time declined slightly as he only started two games in 2014. Nonetheless, the 6’3”, 305-pound defensive tackle continued to be a solid presence against the run while also utilizing his quickness to bring some pressures as a pass-rusher.
Coming off an Achilles injury last season, Peters re-signed with the Falcons on a one-year, $1.6 million deal, but the 26-year-old defensive tackle will likely be seeking a longer-term contract this season.
There’s been little flashy about Peters’ game or his career, so he’s unlikely to attract big money in the open market. He could be a good value signing at $3 million to $4 million per year, however, for a team looking for a new starter or key rotational player on its interior defensive line.
Brian Orakpo, OLB/DE, Washington Redskins
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Unlike the rest of the free agents on this slideshow, Brian Orakpo is widely considered to be one of the NFL’s best players at his position. When he was first slated to hit free agency in 2014, he was franchise-tagged by the Washington Redskins and made $11.455 million as a result.
Likely to hit the open market this year, however, Orakpo won’t make nearly as much money. Having torn a pectoral muscle and playing just seven games this past season, Orakpo is likely to sign a short-term deal with an NFL team this offseason, in hopes of re-establishing himself as a top NFL defender to increase his value for the future.
A three-time Pro Bowler, Orakpo is a very good edge defender when he is healthy, but he has suffered three pectoral tears in the past few years.
Meanwhile, Washington might be ready to move on from Orakpo. Ryan Kerrigan looks like a stronger long-term investment than Orakpo among the team’s two veteran outside linebackers, while 2014 second-round pick Trent Murphy is coming off a solid rookie year.
Presumably, the most sensible match for Orakpo would be to sign with a 2015 contender, one who is looking for a one-year upgrade at either 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 defensive end. For that team, he could come at a cheaper rate than some of the free-agent class’ most highly touted pass-rushers and potentially make a big impact on a new defense.
Justin Durant, OLB, Dallas Cowboys
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Justin Durant’s 2014 season was off to a strong start before he suffered a torn bicep in Week 6, which forced the outside linebacker to injured reserve. Like the aforementioned Brian Orakpo, Durant is another player who could come at a cheaper rate to an NFL team because he is coming off an injury.
Durant was a productive starter in the Dallas Cowboys’ first six games this year—he recorded 49 total tackles, four passes defensed and two forced fumbles—but they might not need him back for 2015.
Fellow impending free-agent linebackers Rolando McClain and Bruce Carter are younger players who might have more value to the Cowboys going forward. Standout linebacker Sean Lee will be expected to return from injury, and Anthony Hitchens has had a strong rookie season.
This could leave Durant, a potential starter at either strong-side linebacker or weak-side linebacker in a 4-3 defense, or as an inside linebacker for a 3-4 scheme, available for value in the second wave of free agency.
At a likely rate of $2.5 million to $3 million for a one- or two-year deal, the 29-year-old Durant could be well worth taking a chance on for a team in need of a starter or key rotational player in its linebacker corps.
Mason Foster, ILB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Because off-ball linebackers don’t usually garner as much value as their counterparts on the defensive line and on the edge, there are typically bargains to be had, even in young, healthy players. One such value this year could come in Mason Foster.
An athletic middle linebacker who is just 25 years old, Foster has had a productive first four years of his career with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, having accumulated 343 total tackles.
However, Foster is coming off a down 2014 season, in which he suffered injuries to his shoulder and Achilles tendon. Already unlikely to be viewed as a top-tier free agent, those injuries decrease his value but make him a potential bargain for a team in need of an inside linebacker.
Unlikely to be signed for more than $3 million per year but still possessing long-term potential, Foster could turn out to be a quality pickup for a team in the second wave of free agency this year.
Rahim Moore, FS, Denver Broncos
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After suffering a horrifying medical condition in 2013, as acute compartment syndrome nearly forced him to amputate his leg, Moore has bounced back strongly this year.
Moore started all 16 of the Denver Broncos’ regular-season games at free safety and provided solid coverage on the back end. He recorded 49 total tackles, four interceptions and two forced fumbles.
Still, Moore is unlikely to command big money on the free-agent market. While the Broncos already have too many big contracts to offer him a large deal, he qualifies as an average-level safety whose injury history could leave some teams hesitant to make a long-term investment.
As a result, Moore should end up being available at $3 million to $4 million per year, even though he is a solidly established, starting-caliber defensive back.
Entering a free-agent market that could also include Devin McCourty and Tashaun Gipson at safety, among others, Moore projects as a second-wave free-agent signing but one who could give a team a steady free safety for however many years it inks him for.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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