Fantasy Football Week 16: Insider Notebook and Preview

There is a faction of fantasy players who despise the notion you should handcuff your own running backs. They argue talent is more important and selecting the backup of the guy you plan to start every week of the season through thick and thin is a waste of a pick.

DeMarco Murray owners, how do you like that now? Ouch.

If you don't have Joseph Randle on your roster already, you might have made a mistake that will cost you your fantasy football Super Bowl in 2014. Murray, the No. 1-scoring back in all of fantasy, had surgery to repair a broken bone in his hand Monday, leaving his status for Week 16 against the Indianapolis Colts in serious doubt, head coach Jason Garrett told ESPN.com's Todd Archer.

Fire up Randle as a starter in all leagues against the Colts, a team that has been seventh-worst in fantasy against running backs this season and fourth-worst in the past five weeks. Randle, owned in just 4.2 percent of ESPN.com leagues and 15 percent of CBSSports.com leagues, has to be everyone's first priority off waivers Tuesday night. Even if you won't start Randle against the Colts, you have to keep your championship opponent from getting him.

Sure, Murray has not yet been ruled out, and the Cowboys could have a committee that also includes third-stringer Lance Dunbar. Also, Randle has proved nothing to fantasy owners in his brief career backing up Murray. Garrett weighed in on Murray's status Monday to reporters, per Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

"

The biggest question we have to ask ourselves is, is he functional to do his job? Can he hold the football? Can he carry it under duress? Can he block? Can he do the things necessary to play the position? He's as strong-willed and as determined an individual as I've ever been around. If anybody has a chance to come back, he does. So let's take first things first and see how the surgery goes. We'll make our best decisions from there.

"

In other words, don't count on Murray in your fantasy starting lineups. Even if he were activated, it is likely the Cowboys would limit him too much for him to do damage enough for owners, especially with the stakes as high as they have been all season.

Randle (6'0", 210 pounds) is the only play, even if you like Dunbar (5'8", 195) as a scat back and pass receiver. Ryan Williams, formerly of the Arizona Cardinals, remains on the practice squad, but he could be activated if the Cowboys decide to allow Murray time to heal.

Garrett broke down his running back Plan B, via Archer:

"

We have a lot of confidence in those guys. Obviously we like to give them opportunities in games to spell DeMarco and just to give those guys a shot. I thought last night was a good example of how those guys consistently take advantage of those opportunities. Joseph got a couple of carries and was productive with his. I felt Lance did a really nice job in that game, at the end of the game handling the football and just doing some good things and making some good runs. They weren't splashy runs, but they were real positive runs in critical moments of that ballgame.

"

Murray's break is with the fourth metacarpal bone in his left hand, a source told Archer, who also reported Murray coincidentally carries the ball predominantly in his right hand. That might give the NFL's leading rusher a sliver of a chance to play through the injury.

The problem we see, though, is the Cowboys are not just playing for Week 16. They need Murray just as much to clinch an NFC East division title and/or a playoff berth in Week 17 and the playoff game(s) beyond.

It makes more sense for Dallas to err on the side of caution this week. Cowboys VP Stephen Jones said on Sirius/XM Radio that Murray has "an uphill battle" to play against the Colts, but "he'll be ready" for Washington in Week 17, according to the satellite radio's official Twitter account:

Two prominent former Cowboys suffered a similar injury and played after one week off, Archer reported. Hall of Fame running back Emmitt Smith missed one game in 1999 after breaking his hand. Terrell Owens had hand surgery, too, and did not miss a game, but that was because it was timed with a Cowboys bye week.

Don't discredit history. Garrett and the Cowboys used past injury experience to determine Tony Romo's playing status with his fractured transverse process in his back earlier this season, as David Moore of The Dallas Morning News reported. Garrett told Moore:

"

I think you're always looking for those kinds of things. Every player is different. Every injury is different. I understand that, but understanding maybe what the parameters are through the history of the injury can sometimes give you a good indication as to how to proceed and really how to think about it.

"

Former Cowboys quarterback Troy Aikman noted a difference between Smith and Murray in playing through this injury, he said on KESN-FM 103.3's The Afternoon Show with Cowlishaw and Mosley on Monday, per The Morning News:

"

If he has to wear a cast, I can't imagine you're going to be able to do something—if it's a hard cast—where he can carry the ball in that hand. He's had issues, as we know, already with fumbling the ball this year. I don't think it could be where he could carry it in one arm. Emmitt Smith certainly did, but it's something that he always did.

"

Expect the Cowboys to hold Murray out one week like Smith and Owens, going with Randle as their between-the-tackles guy in their power-running attack. Dunbar and Williams should get some action, too, but Randle will be the leader in an unbalanced committee.

Fantasy giveth and fantasy taketh away. Hopefully, you had Murray appropriately handcuffed.

Note: All data of fantasy points against certain positions is drawn from the sortable stats at FFToday.com.

49ers Running Back Status Report

Dallas isn't the only team fantasy owners need to watch for injury-report information this week. The San Francisco 49ers also lost their top two running backs Sunday, Frank Gore (concussion) and Carlos Hyde (back and ankle).

Gore will be in the NFL's concussion protocol, while Hyde's owners await the result of the rookie's MRI on Monday.

"I just went down awkwardly," Hyde told CSNBayArea.com's Matt Maiocco. "I was trying to torque my body...I was trying to dip my shoulder, but he caught on to me and pulled back."

Hyde would have been an intriguing fill-in starter for fantasy owners against the San Diego Chargers, but only if he was to be 100 percent and Gore was held out. The fact that it is a short week with the game Saturday does not help the cause of either. Fantasy owners need to prepare their alternatives if they had considered relying on either struggling 49ers running back.

Good News on Falcons' Jones

Countless fantasy teams got by with a productive Harry Douglas in their starting lineup in Week 15, but head coach Mike Smith anticipates Julio Jones (hip) will be ready to play in the Atlanta Falcons' must-win game at New Orleans this Sunday, Jay Adams of the Falcons' official website and D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported.

Smith told Ledbetter:

"

Julio is about where he was [Sunday]. Our anticipation is that we'll have him ready to go this week. It's going to be important for him to continue to improve. He improved from last week to this week. We need to get him back out there.

"

The matchup against the Saints is a very intriguing one. This game should produce plenty of fireworks and fantasy points. Jones should be good for a red-zone score, even if limited.

His return might not keep Douglas from getting snaps, targets, receptions and yards, but it should remove fourth receiver Devin Hester from real fantasy consideration in crunch time. Hester would be just too far down Matt Ryan's pecking order if Jones indeed is active Sunday.

Waiver-Wire Consensus

Every Monday of the season, FantasyPros.com surveys fantasy analysts for the best options off the waiver wire. We reprint the consensus rankings here to give you a way to prioritize your waiver-wire additions.

RK	Player	POS	Matchup	Consensus	Best	Worst
1	Joseph Randle	RB	DAL vs. IND	1.5	1	3
2	Carlos Hyde	RB	SF vs. SD	1.8	1	2
3	Charles Johnson	WR	MIN at MIA	5	3	7
4	Lance Dunbar	RB	DAL vs. IND	5	2	9
5	Harry Douglas	WR	ATL at NO	6.8	4	10
6	Toby Gerhart	RB	JAC vs. TEN	7	3	13
7	Stedman Bailey	WR	STL vs. NYG	8.8	5	16
8	Alfonso Smith	RB	SF vs. SD	9.8	5	19
9	Cecil Shorts	WR	JAC vs. TEN	9.8	7	16
10	Nate Washington	WR	TEN at JAC	11.3	7	15
11	Matt Asiata	RB	MIN at MIA	11.8	8	13
12	Greg Jennings	WR	MIN at MIA	12.3	10	17
13	Kerwynn Williams	RB	ARI vs. SEA	12.8	4	20
14	Doug Baldwin	WR	SEA at ARI	13.3	6	20
15	James Jones	WR	OAK vs. BUF	14.8	8	19
16	Branden Oliver	RB	SD at SF	15.8	13	18
17	Donte Moncrief	WR	IND at DAL	16.3	11	19
18	Malcom Floyd	WR	SD at SF	16.5	12	22
19	Mychal Rivera	TE	OAK vs. BUF	16.5	11	21
20	Charles Clay	TE	MIA vs. MIN	18.3	10	22
21	Stepfan Taylor	RB	ARI vs. SEA	19.3	15	22
22	Owen Daniels	TE	BAL at HOU	19.3	16	22

Thursday Night Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

Tennessee Titans

Start: WR Nate Washington, TE Delanie Walker

Sit: QB Charlie Whitehurst, RB Shonn Greene, RB Bishop Sankey, WR Kendall Wright, WR Derek Hagan, Ryan Succop, Titans D/ST

This matchup should have been a great one for wistful Sankey owners, but the Titans have phased the disappointing rookie back out of the offense of late. Greene isn't intriguing enough to trust in crunch time. Washington and Walker are options as third wideouts in a game that should be better than most for the lowly Titans with Whitehurst getting the start.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Start: RB Toby Gerhart, WR Cecil Shorts, WR Allen Hurns

Sit: QB Blake Bortles, QB Chad Henne, RB Jordan Todman, RB Storm Johnson, WR Marqise Lee, WR Ace Sanders, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Josh Scobee, Jaguars D/ST

The Titans are fourth-worst in fantasy against running backs, so we could see starting Gerhart in deep leagues here. Also, Shorts and Hurns are third wideouts or flex options in deeper leagues, regardless of who starts at quarterback. The Titans are just that bad.

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.