NFL Picks: Week 15 Against the Spread
One thing about me? I'm a good sport.
Therefore, whenย my 3-1 week was negated by my column rival, mathematician extraordinaire and founder of Big Time Sharps professorย Bill Davisย and his identical record, I was cool with it. Maybe it's the socialist in me, or perhaps it's because it's the season of giving, but I'm all for spreading the wealth.ย
However, this time around, the professional bettor is taking a gamble and going for three underdogs. The fourth underdog is yours truly. Fortunately, I preside in the land of Rocky, so I'm ready to play spoiler (and yes, I realize he lost his first bout to Apollo Creed, buzzkill).ย
Check out the picks, with lines courtesy of ESPN.com, and let's see if the holiday season has another miracle left in it.
Last Week
Davis: 3 correct picks
Glauser: 3 correct picksย
Total
Davis: 14 correct picks
Glauser: 9 correct picks
Davis Pick No. 1: Miami Dolphins (+9) over New England Patriots
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"The Dolphins have been one of the strongest defensive teams in the league, and their offense has mathematically improved dramatically over last year thanks to the improved play of Ryan Tannehill.
"The Patriots have made improvements of their own by getting healthier, and their statistics show it. However, the improved Dolphins have already defeated the Patriots once this season and provide matchup difficulties for them."
Pick against the spread:ย "The Davis Equation has the Dolphins keeping it closer than nine points."
Glauser Pick No. 1: Cincinnati Bengals (+1) over Cleveland Browns
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Whoโs ready for the Johnny Football era?
If ego dictated output, we may be about to witness the start of a Hall of Fame career this weekend. However, with a division title on the line and an embarrassing blowout loss at home at the hands of the Dawgs last month to avenge, Marvin Lewis should have his team ready to play.
Pick against the spread: Maybe Iโm projecting karma because of my disdain for Manziel as a person, but Iโm envisioning the words โRyanโ and โLeafโ attached to him as a comparative trajectory when all is said and done. Regardless, this is a tough situation to be thrust into for any QB making his first career start. The Bengals prevail. ย
Davis Pick No. 2: Cincinnati Bengals/Cleveland Browns Total: Under 44 Points
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"Mathematically, these teams have been two of the best defensive teams in the league. Additionally, neither teamโs variation in offensive output has been consistent all season long."
Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Bengals and Browns scoring less than 44 points combined."
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Glauser Pick No. 2: Pittsburgh Steelers/Atlanta Falcons Total: Under 55 Points
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Here we have two teams with playoff aspirations, though the Falcons just may be the worst division-leading team this late in a seasonโฆever.
Big Ben and the Steelers have shown they can go deep with the best of themโand the Dirty Birds and their league-worst passing defense have shown they can let themโbut look for Mike Tomlin to lean on LeโVeon Bell and play keep away from Atlantaโs โO.โ
Pick against the spread: Bell has been a revelation this season, and although very few tandems are performing better than the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones pu pu platter, look for Pittsburghโs ball-control efforts to keep the total score south of 55. ย
Davis Pick No. 3: Tennessee Titans (+3) over New York Jets
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"The Titans have been a poor team all year but have shown improvements on both sides of the ball. The Jetsโ passing game is last in the league. That does not bode well for the Jets in a pass-heavy league."
Pick against the spread:ย "The Davis Equation has Tennessee keeping it closer than three points."
Glauser Pick No. 3: Denver Broncos (-4) over San Diego Chargers
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The easiest bet to make this week is that Peyton Manning will not go a second consecutive week without a touchdown pass.
To further complicate matters for Ron Burgundy's home town, this is usually the time of year when the Broncosโwinners of 10 of their last 11 December contestsโkick it into the next gear.
Pick against the spread: The running back merry-go-round in Denver has stopped on rookie sensation C.J. Anderson. Having that added threat in the backfieldโand knowing that they can wrap up the division with a couple weeks to spareโshould be enough for the Broncos to win comfortably against San Diego, a team theyโve beaten six out of seven times now.
Davis Pick No. 4: Houston Texans (+7) over Indianapolis Colts
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"J.J. Watt may be the leagueโs MVP, and his defense has been even better as of late. The Indianapolis passing game is the best in the league and should be able to score a little but not enough to beat the Texans by more than a touchdown.ย Additionally, Houstonโs offense has been performing much more consistently, both run and pass."
Pick against the spread:ย "The Davis Equation has the Texans keeping it closer than seven points."
Glauser Pick No. 4: Philadelphia Eagles (-3) over Dallas Cowboys
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The Birds feasted on Thanksgiving in Dallas, winning by 23 in a game that wasnโt even that close. The secret? Running it down the Cowboysโ throats (256 yards on the ground).
In fact, in the Chip Kelly Era, the Eagles are a perfect 11-0 when LeSean McCoy cracks the 100-yard mark.
Pick against the spread: Hereโs another fun stat I dug up (especially for Cowboy haters): Dallas has had just one winning record in December since 2001โand even then (2012), it lost its last two!ย Donโt expect a second consecutive dud at home for Philly, which should prevail by more than a field goal.
All quotes from Bill Davis obtained firsthand
Follow Jeff Glauser on Twitter @Jeff_Glauser
